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2023-2024 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by bishop on Feb 1, 2024 13:25:00 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 2, 2024 8:50:41 GMT -5
McDaniels has the Sox ranked 13th in his farm rankings which is right in line with everyone else that has released their offseason rankings. Better than what it was a few years ago but still leaves something to be desired.
Other AL East rankings: Orioles #1, Yankees #6, Rays #7, Jays #24.
Probably going to be some tough sledding for the Sox the next few years with the Orioles seemingly just beginning what should be a long window, the Yankees having a solid if not aging team but a farm to help bolster that and the Rays being the Rays. On the upside the Jays window could be closing with the impending FA status of Bichette and Vlad Jr and a rather low ranked farm.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2024 9:37:19 GMT -5
McDaniels has the Sox ranked 13th in his farm rankings which is right in line with everyone else that has released their offseason rankings. Better than what it was a few years ago but still leaves something to be desired. Other AL East rankings: Orioles #1, Yankees #6, Rays #7, Jays #24. Probably going to be some tough sledding for the Sox the next few years with the Orioles seemingly just beginning what should be a long window, the Yankees having a solid if not aging team but a farm to help bolster that and the Rays being the Rays. On the upside the Jays window could be closing with the impending FA status of Bichette and Vlad Jr and a rather low ranked farm. It's a little confounding that all that's happened since last summer is that Anthony got on a rocket ship, they drafted Teel, they didn't graduate anyone, and their farm ranking seems to have fallen. Meanwhile, the Yankees didn't add anyone notable, they traded away a bunch of young talent, and somehow they've vaulted ahead of the Red Sox.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 2, 2024 9:39:36 GMT -5
McDaniels has the Sox ranked 13th in his farm rankings which is right in line with everyone else that has released their offseason rankings. Better than what it was a few years ago but still leaves something to be desired. Other AL East rankings: Orioles #1, Yankees #6, Rays #7, Jays #24. Probably going to be some tough sledding for the Sox the next few years with the Orioles seemingly just beginning what should be a long window, the Yankees having a solid if not aging team but a farm to help bolster that and the Rays being the Rays. On the upside the Jays window could be closing with the impending FA status of Bichette and Vlad Jr and a rather low ranked farm. It's a little confounding that all that's happened since last summer is that Anthony got on a rocket ship, they drafted Teel, they didn't graduate anyone, and their farm ranking seems to have fallen. Meanwhile, the Yankees didn't add anyone notable, they traded away a bunch of young talent, and somehow they've vaulted ahead of the Red Sox. BA dropped them from 5th mid-season to 13th after the season and it leads me to think either different people do the mid-season vs. off-season rankings or the quality/effort is dramatically different, but if they're so incomparable it feels silly to even release mid-season updates.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 2, 2024 9:56:31 GMT -5
The Yankees farm is so overrated
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 2, 2024 9:57:47 GMT -5
The Yankees farm is so overrated Evergreen statement
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 2, 2024 10:07:17 GMT -5
McDaniels has the Sox ranked 13th in his farm rankings which is right in line with everyone else that has released their offseason rankings. Better than what it was a few years ago but still leaves something to be desired. Other AL East rankings: Orioles #1, Yankees #6, Rays #7, Jays #24. Probably going to be some tough sledding for the Sox the next few years with the Orioles seemingly just beginning what should be a long window, the Yankees having a solid if not aging team but a farm to help bolster that and the Rays being the Rays. On the upside the Jays window could be closing with the impending FA status of Bichette and Vlad Jr and a rather low ranked farm. It's a little confounding that all that's happened since last summer is that Anthony got on a rocket ship, they drafted Teel, they didn't graduate anyone, and their farm ranking seems to have fallen. Meanwhile, the Yankees didn't add anyone notable, they traded away a bunch of young talent, and somehow they've vaulted ahead of the Red Sox. I'm with you there, I'd also add that Wilyer Abreu is still technically a prospect and he showed some good stuff at the end of last year so it is confusing to me how they've seemingly dropped. Bleis getting hurt, obviously hurt and Yorke is kind of just floating around it seems. I know it's not the case but it's almost like the farm is getting penalized for the major league team being stuck in the mud right now. I'm not any less optimistic about the farm than I was half way through last year, if anything I'm more so.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2024 10:36:24 GMT -5
It's a little confounding that all that's happened since last summer is that Anthony got on a rocket ship, they drafted Teel, they didn't graduate anyone, and their farm ranking seems to have fallen. Meanwhile, the Yankees didn't add anyone notable, they traded away a bunch of young talent, and somehow they've vaulted ahead of the Red Sox. I'm with you there, I'd also add that Wilyer Abreu is still technically a prospect and he showed some good stuff at the end of last year so it is confusing to me how they've seemingly dropped. Bleis getting hurt, obviously hurt and Yorke is kind of just floating around it seems. I know it's not the case but it's almost like the farm is getting penalized for the major league team being stuck in the mud right now. I'm not any less optimistic about the farm than I was half way through last year, if anything I'm more so. Looking at the SP rankings, it's pretty hard to see how a downward trend from last summer could be justified:
| 7/6/23 | 11/22/23
| 1 | Mayer | Anthony | 2 | Bleis | Mayer | 3 | Rafaela | Teel | 4 | Anthony | Rafaela | 5 | Yorke | Bleis | 6
| Drohan | Yorke | 7 | Perales | Perales | 8 | Romero | Abreu | 9 | Gonzalez
| Gonzalez
| 10
| Valdez | Cespedes |
Anthony becoming the #1 prospect has nothing to do with anyone else falling; he's just vaulted into the top 20-30 in the game. Teel was a top 10 draftee by consensus. Rafaela only seemed better after his performance at AAA (albeit not so great in his MLB cup of coffee). Valdez graduated but Abreu leaping into the top 10 more than makes up for that. Drohan and Romero fell but Cespedes gained. And just outside the top 10 they added Fitts.
I don't know much about any other farm systems, but just comparing this current system to farm systems of Sox past, it feels to me like it should be ranked around 8-12 or so. For whatever that's worth, which is probably very little. In any case, it certainly doesn't seem weaker than it was last summer.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 2, 2024 10:46:11 GMT -5
I try to avoid farm system rankings talk because I think it's kind of a dumb exercise, but rating the Yankees ahead of us is risible
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 2, 2024 11:01:04 GMT -5
I try to avoid farm system rankings talk because I think it's kind of a dumb exercise, but rating the Yankees ahead of us is risible haven’t you heard, Spencer Jones used to pitch! That means he’s going to hit 50 home runs when he’s 27.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2024 11:02:17 GMT -5
Fangraphs also had the Yankees ranked 24th in their last 2023 update. Then they traded away a bunch of prospects. Then in the new write-up Longerhagen says their system is "healthy and exciting" and the number of 50 FV or better prospects went from 1 to 6.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 2, 2024 11:09:47 GMT -5
I'm with you there, I'd also add that Wilyer Abreu is still technically a prospect and he showed some good stuff at the end of last year so it is confusing to me how they've seemingly dropped. Bleis getting hurt, obviously hurt and Yorke is kind of just floating around it seems. I know it's not the case but it's almost like the farm is getting penalized for the major league team being stuck in the mud right now. I'm not any less optimistic about the farm than I was half way through last year, if anything I'm more so. Looking at the SP rankings, it's pretty hard to see how a downward trend from last summer could be justified:
| 7/6/23 | 11/22/23
| 1 | Mayer | Anthony | 2 | Bleis | Mayer | 3 | Rafaela | Teel | 4 | Anthony | Rafaela | 5 | Yorke | Bleis | 6
| Drohan | Yorke | 7 | Perales | Perales | 8 | Romero | Abreu | 9 | Gonzalez
| Gonzalez
| 10
| Valdez | Cespedes |
Anthony becoming the #1 prospect has nothing to do with anyone else falling; he's just vaulted into the top 20-30 in the game. Teel was a top 10 draftee by consensus. Rafaela only seemed better after his performance at AAA (albeit not so great in his MLB cup of coffee). Valdez graduated but Abreu leaping into the top 10 more than makes up for that. Drohan and Romero fell but Cespedes gained. And just outside the top 10 they added Fitts.
I don't know much about any other farm systems, but just comparing this current system to farm systems of Sox past, it feels to me like it should be ranked around 8-12 or so. For whatever that's worth, which is probably very little. In any case, it certainly doesn't seem weaker than it was last summer.
I have no idea how you're coming to most of these conclusions here. How can you look at those two columns side-by-side and NOT think a downward trend is justified? The second half of Mayer's season was marred by injuries (which, also, Anthony becoming the team's #1 prospect absolutely had something to do with Mayer falling), Bleis had a completely lost season, and Drohan and Romero are both pretty significant fallers, likely due to the former being overranked to begin with. You can make the case that Kyle Teel is a pretty significant bump up and I do love Teel, but everyone else had a draft pick too, so those effects are going to be pretty marginal. You also say that Rafaela "only seemed better" but it seems like the consensus on him has been relatively stable, and I would say correctly so. That's not to say that I think the farm system is in a worse spot now than it was in July, because I don't. And I certainly think that the drop from 5 to 13 is too steep, so I'm not exactly defending the rankings. But to stick your fingers in your ear and act like nothing negative has happened (I'm sure it's VERY coincidental that you omitted Mayer and Bleis) doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Though funnily enough, I ultimately agree with your assessment of where they should rank.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 2, 2024 11:14:07 GMT -5
Fangraphs also had the Yankees ranked 24th in their last 2023 update. Then they traded away a bunch of prospects. Then in the new write-up Longerhagen says their system is "healthy and exciting" and the number of 50 FV or better prospects went from 1 to 6. Probably just sour grapes, but it’s absurd to me. Spencer Jones is overrated (29% K, .180 ISO, and 114 wRC+ as a college draftee in A+). Will Warren posted a 4.89 FIP in AAA at age 24 and gets gassed up. Every time they trade some pitching prospect another one gets bumped into the top 100. If Fitts was still there I’d be surprised if he wasn’t getting talked about more highly.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 2, 2024 11:18:23 GMT -5
Fangraphs also had the Yankees ranked 24th in their last 2023 update. Then they traded away a bunch of prospects. Then in the new write-up Longerhagen says their system is "healthy and exciting" and the number of 50 FV or better prospects went from 1 to 6. Yankees have found a market inefficiency in hiring the best farm system PR team. Pump up the value and trade away the guys before they debut.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 2, 2024 11:18:56 GMT -5
Fangraphs also had the Yankees ranked 24th in their last 2023 update. Then they traded away a bunch of prospects. Then in the new write-up Longerhagen says their system is "healthy and exciting" and the number of 50 FV or better prospects went from 1 to 6. Probably just sour grapes, but it’s absurd to me. Spencer Jones is overrated (29% K, .180 ISO, and 114 wRC+ as a college draftee in A+). Will Warren posted a 4.89 FIP in AAA at age 24 and gets gassed up. Every time they trade some pitching prospect another one gets bumped into the top 100. If Fitts was still there I’d be surprised if he wasn’t getting talked about more highly. Surely you’ve learned not to doubt that Yankee prospect magic. like Andy Martino says, they internally evaluate their own players! Their player development setup is just built different.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 2, 2024 11:27:02 GMT -5
Nick Yorke had a better year than Spencer Jones at the plate, while a year younger and playing a more difficult position, and everyone is kinda not feeling great about him being our #5 prospect.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2024 11:29:55 GMT -5
Looking at the SP rankings, it's pretty hard to see how a downward trend from last summer could be justified:
| 7/6/23 | 11/22/23
| 1 | Mayer | Anthony | 2 | Bleis | Mayer | 3 | Rafaela | Teel | 4 | Anthony | Rafaela | 5 | Yorke | Bleis | 6
| Drohan | Yorke | 7 | Perales | Perales | 8 | Romero | Abreu | 9 | Gonzalez
| Gonzalez
| 10
| Valdez | Cespedes |
Anthony becoming the #1 prospect has nothing to do with anyone else falling; he's just vaulted into the top 20-30 in the game. Teel was a top 10 draftee by consensus. Rafaela only seemed better after his performance at AAA (albeit not so great in his MLB cup of coffee). Valdez graduated but Abreu leaping into the top 10 more than makes up for that. Drohan and Romero fell but Cespedes gained. And just outside the top 10 they added Fitts.
I don't know much about any other farm systems, but just comparing this current system to farm systems of Sox past, it feels to me like it should be ranked around 8-12 or so. For whatever that's worth, which is probably very little. In any case, it certainly doesn't seem weaker than it was last summer.
I have no idea how you're coming to most of these conclusions here. How can you look at those two columns side-by-side and NOT think a downward trend is justified? The second half of Mayer's season was marred by injuries (which, also, Anthony becoming the team's #1 prospect absolutely had something to do with Mayer falling), Bleis had a completely lost season, and Drohan and Romero are both pretty significant fallers, likely due to the former being overranked to begin with. You can make the case that Kyle Teel is a pretty significant bump up and I do love Teel, but everyone else had a draft pick too, so those effects are going to be pretty marginal. You also say that Rafaela "only seemed better" but it seems like the consensus on him has been relatively stable, and I would say correctly so. That's not to say that I think the farm system is in a worse spot now than it was in July, because I don't. And I certainly think that the drop from 5 to 13 is too steep, so I'm not exactly defending the rankings. But to stick your fingers in your ear and act like nothing negative has happened (I'm sure it's VERY coincidental that you omitted Mayer and Bleis) doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Though funnily enough, I ultimately agree with your assessment of where they should rank. Uhh okay, glad we agree. Though I'm not sure what the rest of this is about then.
Maybe Chris or James could weigh in on whether "a downward trend is justified." Personally I'm not seeing it.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 2, 2024 11:32:09 GMT -5
I have no idea how you're coming to most of these conclusions here. How can you look at those two columns side-by-side and NOT think a downward trend is justified? The second half of Mayer's season was marred by injuries (which, also, Anthony becoming the team's #1 prospect absolutely had something to do with Mayer falling), Bleis had a completely lost season, and Drohan and Romero are both pretty significant fallers, likely due to the former being overranked to begin with. You can make the case that Kyle Teel is a pretty significant bump up and I do love Teel, but everyone else had a draft pick too, so those effects are going to be pretty marginal. You also say that Rafaela "only seemed better" but it seems like the consensus on him has been relatively stable, and I would say correctly so. That's not to say that I think the farm system is in a worse spot now than it was in July, because I don't. And I certainly think that the drop from 5 to 13 is too steep, so I'm not exactly defending the rankings. But to stick your fingers in your ear and act like nothing negative has happened (I'm sure it's VERY coincidental that you omitted Mayer and Bleis) doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Though funnily enough, I ultimately agree with your assessment of where they should rank. Uhh okay, glad we agree. Though I'm not sure what the rest of this is about then.
Maybe Chris or James could weigh in on whether "a downward trend is justified." Personally I'm not seeing it.
“The rest of it” is about how you’re obviously cherry-picking the positives without acknowledging the moderate-to-substantial setbacks a couple of the top prospects took. Seems inconsistent to me.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 2, 2024 11:39:11 GMT -5
Nick Yorke had a better year than Spencer Jones at the plate, while a year younger and playing a more difficult position, and everyone is kinda not feeling great about him being our #5 prospect. He’s the forgotten man of the system IMO. Glad to have a plan B to Grissom if he cant stick at 2B long term. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yorke dealt if the right trade arises, but I think he’s being written off prematurely lately.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 2, 2024 11:40:07 GMT -5
Nick Yorke had a better year than Spencer Jones at the plate, while a year younger and playing a more difficult position, and everyone is kinda not feeling great about him being our #5 prospect. don’t forget that he was also a level higher, on top of all that
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Post by puzzler on Feb 2, 2024 11:41:25 GMT -5
Nick Yorke had a better year than Spencer Jones at the plate, while a year younger and playing a more difficult position, and everyone is kinda not feeling great about him being our #5 prospect. He’s the forgotten man of the system IMO. Glad to have a plan B to Grissom if he cant stick at 2B long term. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yorke dealt if the right trade arises, but I think he’s being written off prematurely lately. I completely agree. In fact, I think there's a case where Grissom could get moved to LF depending upon whether Yorke is a good defender or not. But I could also see him being dealt. If I had to choose the AAA player I'm most excited about, it would be Yorke hands down.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2024 11:45:48 GMT -5
Uhh okay, glad we agree. Though I'm not sure what the rest of this is about then.
Maybe Chris or James could weigh in on whether "a downward trend is justified." Personally I'm not seeing it.
“The rest of it” is about how you’re obviously cherry-picking the positives without acknowledging the moderate-to-substantial setbacks a couple of the top prospects took. Seems inconsistent to me. You have a charming habit of obnoxiously insinuating that I'm arguing in bad faith, and I'm about one comment away from blocking you over it. In this case you're not even disagreeing with my conclusion, so what's the point?
Bleis' season was already lost by the 7/6 ranking so nothing changed with him. Mayer had been struggling and IIRC it only came out after this point that it was because of his health issues, which mitigates whatever effect the negative performance should have had on the rankings. In any case, the national rankings haven't seriously lowered their estimations on him - perhaps only slightly - and I think the same goes for soxprospects. Teel was an important addition, and yes other teams added draft talent, but most did not add talent at that level; meanwhile other teams did graduate prospects but the Red Sox' didn't graduate anyone significant (just Valdez and Chris Murphy I think). I did in fact mention the other negative trends; I guess you're just cherry-picking by not mentioning those?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 2, 2024 11:49:44 GMT -5
Nick Yorke had a better year than Spencer Jones at the plate, while a year younger and playing a more difficult position, and everyone is kinda not feeling great about him being our #5 prospect. He’s the forgotten man of the system IMO. Glad to have a plan B to Grissom if he cant stick at 2B long term. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yorke dealt if the right trade arises, but I think he’s being written off prematurely lately. You're probably right. I think there's a trend with prospects (that I certainly contribute to) where when they have a deficiency that may be deemed difficult to fix, people are quick to just write them off as having that deficiency and go "too bad so sad". Everything that's been made about the very specific swing-and-miss issues Yorke has is certainly legitimate in my eyes and is a concern moving forward, but also shouldn't get in the way of the fact that he was producing really good numbers as a 21 year old in AA, and still has an abundance of hitting talent. I'm probably a little bit lower on him than most still, but will admit that I have been too quick to write him off as you say (though like you also say, I still think he makes a ton of sense as a trade chip and I would certainly go that route if I were the FO). add: I think one of the reasons I shade lower on Yorke is because I am irrationally high on Blaze Jordan and think he gets caught up in some of this same weirdness, but gets penalized for it disproportionately (in my opinion) more and the gap in the rankings is too wide in reflecting that (again, in my opinion). So that's me saying there's a tiny bit of reason behind it but also acknowledging my biases. I also think that when people start to have a general understanding of what a prospect is, some of the shine wears off a bit. Like, we have a pretty good idea of Yorke's range of outcomes at this point IMO, but Antonio Anderson (random-ish example) could be just about anything, so he's deemed more "exciting", if that makes sense. Not saying it's necessarily right or wrong, but I do think that's something that's affected Yorke's perception a bit lately.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 2, 2024 11:52:24 GMT -5
“The rest of it” is about how you’re obviously cherry-picking the positives without acknowledging the moderate-to-substantial setbacks a couple of the top prospects took. Seems inconsistent to me. You have a charming habit of obnoxiously insinuating that I'm arguing in bad faith, and I'm about one comment away from blocking you over it. In this case you're not even disagreeing with my conclusion, so what's the point?
Bleis' season was already lost by the 7/6 ranking so nothing changed with him. Mayer had been struggling and IIRC it only came out after this point that it was because of his health issues, which mitigates whatever effect the negative performance should have had on the rankings. In any case, the national rankings haven't seriously lowered their estimations on him - perhaps only slightly - and I think the same goes for soxprospects. Teel was an important addition, and yes other teams added draft talent, but most did not add talent at that level; meanwhile other teams did graduate prospects but the Red Sox' didn't graduate anyone significant (just Valdez and Chris Murphy I think). I did in fact mention the other negative trends; I guess you're just cherry-picking by not mentioning those?
If you think that my insinuations that you're arguing in bad faith constitutes a habit, maybe some self-reflection on your own arguments could do you some good? Block me all you want, I genuinely could not care less, all I'm saying is that sticking your fingers in your ear and refusing to acknowledge how anyone could possibly have viewpoint of the system that is not wholly positive ("pretty hard to see how a downward trend from last summer could be justified") just doesn't seem very logical. Maybe that's just me, though!
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 2, 2024 12:02:22 GMT -5
He’s the forgotten man of the system IMO. Glad to have a plan B to Grissom if he cant stick at 2B long term. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yorke dealt if the right trade arises, but I think he’s being written off prematurely lately. You're probably right. I think there's a trend with prospects (that I certainly contribute to) where when they have a deficiency that may be deemed difficult to fix, people are quick to just write them off as having that deficiency and go "too bad so sad". Everything that's been made about the very specific swing-and-miss issues Yorke has is certainly legitimate in my eyes and is a concern moving forward, but also shouldn't get in the way of the fact that he was producing really good numbers as a 21 year old in AA, and still has an abundance of hitting talent. I'm probably a little bit lower on him than most still, but will admit that I have been too quick to write him off as you say (though like you also say, I still think he makes a ton of sense as a trade chip and I would certainly go that route if I were the FO). add: I think one of the reasons I shade lower on Yorke is because I am irrationally high on Blaze Jordan and think he gets caught up in some of this same weirdness, but gets penalized for it disproportionately (in my opinion) more and the gap in the rankings is too wide in reflecting that (again, in my opinion). So that's me saying there's a tiny bit of reason behind it but also acknowledging my biases. I also think that when people start to have a general understanding of what a prospect is, some of the shine wears off a bit. Like, we have a pretty good idea of Yorke's range of outcomes at this point IMO, but Antonio Anderson (random-ish example) could be just about anything, so he's deemed more "exciting", if that makes sense. Not saying it's necessarily right or wrong, but I do think that's something that's affected Yorke's perception a bit lately. Yeah prospect fatigue is definitely a thing. I also agree that Yorke will not make it if he keeps striking out as often as he has, but I do think he has the potential to cut that K rate down. He has been pretty aggressively moved up through the minors. He could have started last year in A+ after struggling there in 2022, but held his own in AA still. I think if he had gotten more time at his last couple of stops he would probably K less often, but he keeps moving up the ladder too quickly to prove that out. We’ll see what he can do in AAA this season. The good news is that there is no rush for him to make his debut. Hopefully he can iron out his swing and miss issues in Worcester.
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