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Red Sox Acquire Tyler O’Neill
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2023 21:42:39 GMT -5
Buying low on a toolsy, oft-injured guy in hopes of a bounceback. Why does this feel so familiar. Grady Sizemore says, What's your problem?
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 8, 2023 21:46:59 GMT -5
Nice catch
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 8, 2023 22:00:30 GMT -5
Things that make you go hmmmmm...
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,029
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Post by cdj on Dec 8, 2023 22:16:29 GMT -5
Things that make you go hmmmmm... On one hand it could just be great genes on the other hand his dad definitely knows how to stack from the body building days lol
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Post by jbur521 on Dec 8, 2023 22:33:42 GMT -5
looked like Benny on that one...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2023 22:43:10 GMT -5
So...
Verdugo, Robertson & Santos
for
O'Neil, Weissert, Fitts, Judice & $4m AAV
Works for me....
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Post by keninten on Dec 8, 2023 22:56:26 GMT -5
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Dec 8, 2023 23:52:28 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2023 4:20:08 GMT -5
Two more observations about Tyler O'Neill, a player I knew very little about 24 hours ago.
1) he kind of looks like popeye. Just give him a little pipe, some spinach, and let him flex his muscles.
2) his 2021 may well be the outlier but if you expand his records to include the minors his 2021 season can get confused with some of those minor league lines.
In a way it did come back to me. I kind of remembered the gaudy minor league lines from his Mariners days, but not really the player himself. Those lines in 2015 and 2016 kind of resembled what he would be in 2021.
So there is a mass of potential there and I dont think that 2021 is necessarily a fluke. Once a player gets bitten by the injury bug it can keep biting and hindering what the player was. That said, if he stays reasonably healthy, he has a ceiling like few out there who were or are available.
I see what Breslow is aiming for, a potential 3 headed L-R-L monster where the Sox bat Devers, O'Neill, and Casas back-to-back where they can get at least 100 homers out of that trio.
I think the move by Breslow was kind of clever. They can hopefully reap a huge bounceback year from O'Neill and they can let him go to make way for Anthony or perhaps he finds Boston to his liking there's nothing saying they cant extend him and keep him in the same outfield as Anthony. It's not like the Sox farm system is loaded with good defensive RH hitting outfielders with 30 plus HR potential. All of this, as they day, to be determined.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 9, 2023 4:31:50 GMT -5
He’s demonstrated star upside, just gotta get him back to that point They needed a RHH OF. Good crack at the piñata Still need more impact tho Cdj this is an old fashion baseball trade. Lol
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Post by chrisfromnc on Dec 9, 2023 8:14:31 GMT -5
All I’m seeing is that he can’t ever be a candidate for BSOHL. Dude is/was jacked.
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Post by bentossaurus on Dec 9, 2023 9:26:42 GMT -5
All I’m seeing is that he can’t ever be a candidate for BSOHL. Dude is/was jacked. "I felt that maybe I added a little bit too much bulk the past couple of off-seasons, and that's where some of the injury problems came from. This time I focused more on flexibility, yoga and overall being a little less stiff and more pliable. Kind of like the Tom Brady routine, and the guy was never injured. Honestly, I don't think it ever felt so good. It's like I'm in the best shape of my life."
Bank on it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2023 9:29:54 GMT -5
All I’m seeing is that he can’t ever be a candidate for BSOHL. Dude is/was jacked. "I felt that maybe I added a little bit too much bulk the past couple of off-seasons, and that's where some of the injury problems came from. This time I focused more on flexibility, yoga and overall being a little less stiff and more pliable. Kind of like the Tom Brady routine, and the guy was never injured. Honestly, I don't think it ever felt so good. It's like I'm in the best shape of my life." Bank on it. Mark it down everyone we already got our "I'm in the best shape of my life" statement and we're not even in the new year! Is that a record? In all seriousness though, I'm glad to see that. Some of those pictures I saw the dude looked like he was posing for Mr. Olympia or something. Muscles are great and all but too much can cause diminishing returns. Edit: I'm a fool and the original comment was in jest. However it made me realize I can't wait to read all the "I'm in best shape of my life" statements in about a month or two!
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Post by bentossaurus on Dec 9, 2023 9:31:44 GMT -5
If it wasn't obvious, I was being ironic. Gonna add the sarcasm font.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2023 9:33:45 GMT -5
If it wasn't obvious, I was being ironic. Gonna add the sarcasm font. Oh haha dang you duped me! In fairness I probably should have figured that one out but I'm only halfway through my morning coffee so my brain isn't quite firing off on all cylinders yet.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 9, 2023 9:58:38 GMT -5
So... Verdugo, Robertson & Santos for O'Neil, Weissert, Fitts, Judice & $4m AAV Works for me.... Me too!
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 9, 2023 10:07:47 GMT -5
If nothing else, O'Neill makes us a heavy favorite if there's a Red Sox-MFY brawl in '24!
It's exactly the kind of deal I hoped to see this winter in advance of what I consider a non-GFIN year. O'Neill provides a badly needed RH OF bat and is a decent candidate for a bounceback.
Most importantly, it's a one-year commitment and money coming off the books going into '25 along with Sale, Martin, Jansen and the $6.7 payout to Justin Turner.
That's when the farm should start producing impact and when I'd like to see the Red Sox spend on stars. For '24, keep big contracts limited to Yama, acquire other pieces on short deals - one-year if possible like CB1 did last winter - and extend Casas.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,299
Member is Online
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Post by radiohix on Dec 9, 2023 12:49:04 GMT -5
If nothing else, O'Neill makes us a heavy favorite if there's a Red Sox-MFY brawl in '24! It's exactly the kind of deal I hoped to see this winter in advance of what I consider a non-GFIN year. O'Neill provides a badly needed RH OF bat and is a decent candidate for a bounceback. Most importantly, it's a one-year commitment and money coming off the books going into '25 along with Sale, Martin, Jansen and the $6.7 payout to Justin Turner. That's when the farm should start producing impact and when I'd like to see the Red Sox spend on stars. For '24, keep big contracts limited to Yama, acquire other pieces on short deals - one-year if possible like CB1 did last winter - and extend Casas. Can’t agree more here. Yamamoto makes so much sens for this team: The 2025 season will be his 26 yo season with a year of MLB experience under his belt, the kids (mainly Mayer, Anthony & Teel) will be ready or close to that, Perales and Wilkelman pitching in AAA and , knock on wood, ready to contribute mid-season in relief or spot starts capacity, the FO will have a clear idea if Duran, Abreu, Rafaela and maybe Yorke are MLB starters material and we can go after Soto with plenty of money off the books.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,495
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Post by shagworthy on Dec 9, 2023 13:00:51 GMT -5
"I felt that maybe I added a little bit too much bulk the past couple of off-seasons, and that's where some of the injury problems came from. This time I focused more on flexibility, yoga and overall being a little less stiff and more pliable. Kind of like the Tom Brady routine, and the guy was never injured. Honestly, I don't think it ever felt so good. It's like I'm in the best shape of my life." Bank on it. Mark it down everyone we already got our "I'm in the best shape of my life" statement and we're not even in the new year! Is that a record? In all seriousness though, I'm glad to see that. Some of those pictures I saw the dude looked like he was posing for Mr. Olympia or something. Muscles are great and all but too much can cause diminishing returns. Edit: I'm a fool and the original comment was in jest. However it made me realize I can't wait to read all the "I'm in best shape of my life" statements in about a month or two! "I'm in the best shape of my life" is the baseball fans version of The Little Drummer Boy game.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 9, 2023 17:26:11 GMT -5
Things that make you go hmmmmm... Let's just say that when I saw the video of that catch, as I saw O'Neill approach the ball, I was seriously concerned for the well-being of the wall.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 9, 2023 20:20:57 GMT -5
Totally brilliant. This dude had 6.1 WAR / 600 PA in 2021, but more importantly, he was 1.9 and 1.8 the last two years, playing through injuries. If he can stay reasonably healthy (the one big if), his floor is probably 2.5 or even 3.0. So he's comparable to Verdugo, but a) has huge upside, b) restores the proper R/L balance, c) costs about $4M less and c) is not on Alex Cora's **** list.
There is even the hope that he'll be good enough to sign to an extension. Given that the top three prospects are all position players who hit lefty and are due to arrive in 2025, we can really use a RHB who rakes. (I'm still reasonably high on
And here's a bonus: the ceiling is conceivably higher than [6.1 - regression]. His 2021 had a subset of PA that was awful, but should be fixable with 3 words of advice. This set of splits blew my mind so severely that I'm still looking for it. Men On PA OPS+ _ _ _ 293 157 1 _ _ 109 170 _ 2 _ 58 188 _ _ 3 12 80 1 2 _ 30 53 1 _ 3 15 57 _ 2 3 11 36 1 2 3 9 2
Yes, four of these buckets are very small, but the overall pattern is bonkers. His performance starts to collapse when there are 2 runners in scoring position or a runner on 3rd--clearly higher leverage than just a man on 1st or or 2nd-- and the more important the situation is, the worse he hits.
I calculated the Run Expectancy for each man-on situation starting with a lone runner on 1B, and correlated it to the hitting results. The situation explains 82% of the results. The odds of this being random are 1 in 208. (If you think about it, the small sizes of some of the buckets makes this even more impressive.)
My immediate guess was that this is a guy who is altering his approach based on the situation, to his detriment. If this is the case, his splits with 1 out should be a lot better than 0 or 2 outs, because those two situations are regarded as special -- men on with no outs threatening a big inning. Here are the slash lines: PA 0 outs 14 .083 / .143 / .167 1 out 27 .304 / .296 / .522 2 out 36 .171 / .167 / .343
So that worked.
The three words are "ignore the situation."
.
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 9, 2023 21:34:44 GMT -5
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Post by orion09 on Dec 9, 2023 21:57:42 GMT -5
This set of splits blew my mind so severely that I'm still looking for it. Men On PA OPS+ _ _ _ 293 157 1 _ _ 109 170 _ 2 _ 58 188 _ _ 3 12 80 1 2 _ 30 53 1 _ 3 15 57 _ 2 3 11 36 1 2 3 9 2
Yes, four of these buckets are very small, but the overall pattern is bonkers. His performance starts to collapse when there are 2 runners in scoring position or a runner on 3rd--clearly higher leverage than just a man on 1st or or 2nd-- and the more important the situation is, the worse he hits.
I calculated the Run Expectancy for each man-on situation starting with a lone runner on 1B, and correlated it to the hitting results. The situation explains 82% of the results. The odds of this being random are 1 in 208. (If you think about it, the small sizes of some of the buckets makes this even more impressive.)
My immediate guess was that this is a guy who is altering his approach based on the situation, to his detriment. If this is the case, his splits with 1 out should be a lot better than 0 or 2 outs, because those two situations are regarded as special -- men on with no outs threatening a big inning. Here are the slash lines: PA 0 outs 14 .083 / .143 / .167 1 out 27 .304 / .296 / .522 2 out 36 .171 / .167 / .343
So that worked.
The three words are "ignore the situation."
.
Maybe a stupid question: how is this different from doing poorly in high-leverage situations, which you’ve criticized other players (JDM, Bogaerts) for?
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2023 0:18:20 GMT -5
Buying low on a toolsy, oft-injured guy in hopes of a bounceback. Why does this feel so familiar. Grady Sizemore says, What's your problem? A tale of two declines:
Age PA WAR/600 PA WAR/600 Surgeries 25 420 1.5 745 6.0 Elbow, Hernia 26 482 6.1 503 2.5 L Knee 27 381 1.9 140 -0.9 Hernia, R Knee 28 266 1.8 295 0.4 Back, R Knee 29 ? DBP 30 DBP 31 oops
Except for the five medical conditions requiring seven surgeries, and the two years at replacement level followed by two years of inactivity, a close comp.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2023 8:01:07 GMT -5
Grady Sizemore says, What's your problem? A tale of two declines:
Age PA WAR/600 PA WAR/600 Surgeries 25 420 1.5 745 6.0 Elbow, Hernia 26 482 6.1 503 2.5 L Knee 27 381 1.9 140 -0.9 Hernia, R Knee 28 266 1.8 295 0.4 Back, R Knee 29 ? DBP 30 DBP 31 oops
Except for the five medical conditions requiring seven surgeries, and the two years at replacement level followed by two years of inactivity, a close comp.
Yes, I know Sizemore's situation was more extreme. That's why I dropped his name, thought it would be a funnier response. What wasnt funny was how Nava got sent down to AAA because of it. Guy has a strong underrated season in 13, gets benched in the post season and then doesnt even make the opening day roster. How many people bat .300 with a high OBP and get demoted to the minors at the beginning of the following season?
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