SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Red Sox Acquire Tyler O’Neill
|
|
Post by dsorc on Dec 10, 2023 9:10:06 GMT -5
Some people in the thread have brought up comparisons to Duvall but given the injury history I would not be surprised if he ends up taking Refsnyder's spot. Good platoon splits and defensively capable of covering all three spots. Refsnyder was barely getting used at the end of last year so he may be out of favor. O'Neill would be used more than Refsnyder but I don't think he is likely to get a full starter's workload. And given his injury history he is unlikely to to be available for a full workload anyway. There is likely one more right handed bat coming.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxin8 on Dec 10, 2023 13:44:32 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Dec 10, 2023 13:47:27 GMT -5
Some people in the thread have brought up comparisons to Duvall but given the injury history I would not be surprised if he ends up taking Refsnyder's spot. Good platoon splits and defensively capable of covering all three spots. Refsnyder was barely getting used at the end of last year so he may be out of favor. O'Neill would be used more than Refsnyder but I don't think he is likely to get a full starter's workload. And given his injury history he is unlikely to to be available for a full workload anyway. There is likely one more right handed bat coming. Refsnider had a 148 wRC+ vs LHP over the last two years. There’s a lot of value to a platoon player like that, though he was so bad last year vs RHP (31 wRC+) that they may decide they can’t carry him. O’Neill OTOH had a 123 wRC+ vs LHP over the past two years, though he was incredible against them in 2021 (169 wRC+). So there’s upside for O’Neill to be nearly as good as Refsnider vs LHP and less of a black hole vs RHP. |
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Dec 10, 2023 13:51:23 GMT -5
Some people in the thread have brought up comparisons to Duvall but given the injury history I would not be surprised if he ends up taking Refsnyder's spot. Good platoon splits and defensively capable of covering all three spots. Refsnyder was barely getting used at the end of last year so he may be out of favor. O'Neill would be used more than Refsnyder but I don't think he is likely to get a full starter's workload. And given his injury history he is unlikely to to be available for a full workload anyway. There is likely one more right handed bat coming. Refsnider had a 148 wRC+ vs LHP over the last two years. There’s a lot of value to a platoon player like that, though he was so bad last year vs RHP (31 wRC+) that they may decide they can’t carry him. O’Neill OTOH had a 123 wRC+ vs LHP over the past two years, though he was incredible against them in 2021 (169 wRC+). So there’s upside for O’Neill to be nearly as good as Refsnider vs LHP and less of a black hole vs RHP. If you keep Rafaela around as a super utility guy Cora would have the flexibility to start 3 RHH outfielders against a LH starter. I like that. |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Dec 10, 2023 14:08:42 GMT -5
Sounds like that Friday morning report in the St Louis dispatch about the Royals and Mariners being interested in Tyler O'Neil was intended for an audience of one (Craig Breslow). Good job to close the deal with a mediocre offer. |
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Dec 10, 2023 14:42:47 GMT -5
Particularly given O’Neill’s injury history I don’t see them being in a rush to move Refsnyder. Start the year with Rafaela in AAA and if he forces the issue eventually and everyone is still healthy you have a decision to make then.
|
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Dec 10, 2023 15:35:37 GMT -5
Particularly given O’Neill’s injury history I don’t see them being in a rush to move Refsnyder. Start the year with Rafaela in AAA and if he forces the issue eventually and everyone is still healthy you have a decision to make then. While it would be surprising to see the Sox carry all of O’Neill, Refsnyder and Rafaela, the ST results of those three, plus any injury issues, will tell us how they lineup on a depth chart. One of Ref or Raf seems unlikely to be on the Opening Day roster. |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2023 20:26:19 GMT -5
"I felt that maybe I added a little bit too much bulk the past couple of off-seasons, and that's where some of the injury problems came from. This time I focused more on flexibility, yoga and overall being a little less stiff and more pliable. Kind of like the Tom Brady routine, and the guy was never injured. Honestly, I don't think it ever felt so good. It's like I'm in the best shape of my life." Bank on it. Mark it down everyone we already got our "I'm in the best shape of my life" statement and we're not even in the new year! Is that a record? In all seriousness though, I'm glad to see that. Some of those pictures I saw the dude looked like he was posing for Mr. Olympia or something. Muscles are great and all but too much can cause diminishing returns. Edit: I'm a fool and the original comment was in jest. However it made me realize I can't wait to read all the "I'm in best shape of my life" statements in about a month or two! John Schreiber let a BSOML slip out on @bradfo's podcast a few weeks ago and bradfo had a party with it... |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2023 20:51:51 GMT -5
This set of splits blew my mind so severely that I'm still looking for it. Men On PA OPS+
_ _ _ 293 157
1 _ _ 109 170
_ 2 _ 58 188
_ _ 3 12 80
1 2 _ 30 53
1 _ 3 15 57
_ 2 3 11 36
1 2 3 9 2
Yes, four of these buckets are very small, but the overall pattern is bonkers. His performance starts to collapse when there are 2 runners in scoring position or a runner on 3rd--clearly higher leverage than just a man on 1st or or 2nd-- and the more important the situation is, the worse he hits.
I calculated the Run Expectancy for each man-on situation starting with a lone runner on 1B, and correlated it to the hitting results. The situation explains 82% of the results. The odds of this being random are 1 in 208. (If you think about it, the small sizes of some of the buckets makes this even more impressive.)
My immediate guess was that this is a guy who is altering his approach based on the situation, to his detriment. If this is the case, his splits with 1 out should be a lot better than 0 or 2 outs, because those two situations are regarded as special -- men on with no outs threatening a big inning. Here are the slash lines: PA
0 outs 14 .083 / .143 / .167
1 out 27 .304 / .296 / .522
2 out 36 .171 / .167 / .343
So that worked.
The three words are "ignore the situation."
.
Maybe a stupid question: how is this different from doing poorly in high-leverage situations, which you’ve criticized other players (JDM, Bogaerts) for? Actually a really smart question. Because he did hit poorly in high-leverage situations.
There are three or four different ways, I think, that a hitter can end up as a bad high-leverage performer.
1) Presses, i.e., puts too much pressure on himself. Opposite: thinks hitting with the game on the line is ... fun! Familiar poster children: Xander Bogaers (last 5 seasons) vs. Alex Verdugo (2021 - early 2023).
1b) Self-doubt vs. confidence, lumped together with the above because it's also psychological, and the two can be part of the same feedback loop. The more Papi succeeded in walk-off situations starting in the '04 playoffs, the more certain he seemed to become that he would get it done again.
Note these can come and go, as they are states of mind. In psych terms, they are state variables rather than trait variables.
2) Feasts on the crap pitching in garbage time, so is significantly less good in high-lev than expected. Poster child: J.D. Martinez.
3) Alters their approach in certain base/out situations. Tries to make a productive out, or tries to hit a homer with 2 on and 2 out. That a;most always backfires in the long run.
I went deeper into O'Neill's numbers than the stuff I posted, and he definitely has type 3 going. I think it's pretty likely he has a type 2 effect, and I was about to look into it when I realized ... OK, maybe he got 1.0 WAR or more that's bogus because of feasting on bad pitching ... at 6.1 per 600 PA to start from, he's still damn good if you make that adjustment.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 10, 2023 20:58:14 GMT -5
Wow, that is not much. Was Victor Santos even protected from the Rule 5 minor league phase? Yes, fwiw. |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2023 21:44:37 GMT -5
Wow, that is not much. Was Victor Santos even protected from the Rule 5 minor league phase? Yes, fwiw. Still only 23 heading into a full season of AAA. I'm sure there are models that like that... |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2023 22:27:16 GMT -5
Reading Law's take on the trade, I finally realized why I have such a low opinion of him.
To my mind, the first thing you do when a trade like this happens is, figure out why the teams made the trade. In the Sox case, it's very clear that they believe O'Neill can start in the OF; you wouldn't trade Refsyder to replace him with an identical guy who costs $3.5M more. It's also likely that they think he can play RF, a position almost any team would put him in given his speed and arm strength.
You also have to realize that the team that made the trade knows 10 times as much about the player as you could ever know.
Law is so convinced of the accuracy of his assessments* that he is disinterested in what the teams believes. In this case he's so sure that O'Neill's offensive decline is the inevitable consequence of his high K rate that he simply reports that it cane "immediately" without offering any evidence or explanation as to why it happened overnight. He then mentions the four injuries an as apparent aside.
This is as useful as spam. At best.
* Assuming there may be folks on the board who became Sox fans after 2006, and admittedly because it's just plain fun to repeat, Law was vehemently certain that "Dustin Pedroia lacks the bat speed to hit major league pitching" and that his upside was backup middle-infielder, but he was unlikely to reach even that.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 10, 2023 22:36:40 GMT -5
Still only 23 heading into a full season of AAA. I'm sure there are models that like that... For what it's worth, it just means they didn't actively remove him, given that he'd reached AAA. |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
|
Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2023 16:18:07 GMT -5
"When I started writing this post, my viewpoint was that O’Neill is a low-risk, high-upside player whom Boston acquired for basically nothing. And even when compromised the past two seasons, he was essentially a league-average part-time outfielder. Seems like there’s little to lose and much to gain.
Now, I’ve talked myself into O’Neill being two Advil and a yoga class away from turning back into the Canadian Adolis García. "
|
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 11, 2023 16:51:50 GMT -5
Reading Law's take on the trade, I finally realized why I have such a low opinion of him.
To my mind, the first thing you do when a trade like this happens is, figure out why the teams made the trade. In the Sox case, it's very clear that they believe O'Neill can start in the OF; you wouldn't trade Refsyder to replace him with an identical guy who costs $3.5M more. It's also likely that they think he can play RF, a position almost any team would put him in given his speed and arm strength.
You also have to realize that the team that made the trade knows 10 times as much about the player as you could ever know.
Law is so convinced of the accuracy of his assessments* that he is disinterested in what the teams believes. In this case he's so sure that O'Neill's offensive decline is the inevitable consequence of his high K rate that he simply reports that it cane "immediately" without offering any evidence or explanation as to why it happened overnight. He then mentions the four injuries an as apparent aside.
This is as useful as spam. At best.
* Assuming there may be folks on the board who became Sox fans after 2006, and admittedly because it's just plain fun to repeat, Law was vehemently certain that "Dustin Pedroia lacks the bat speed to hit major league pitching" and that his upside was backup middle-infielder, but he was unlikely to reach even that.
Law has a ton of misses on his resume. Aside from Pedey, Chris Sale and Arrietta come to mind immediately. Every evaluator does though. Its what it is. This game isn't an exact science. I feel if O'Neill stays healthy, big if, he'll hit 25 homers and be an offensive upgrade over Dugie who is dead friggin average at best. |
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,794
|
Post by nomar on Dec 11, 2023 17:06:31 GMT -5
Reading Law's take on the trade, I finally realized why I have such a low opinion of him. To my mind, the first thing you do when a trade like this happens is, figure out why the teams made the trade. In the Sox case, it's very clear that they believe O'Neill can start in the OF; you wouldn't trade Refsyder to replace him with an identical guy who costs $3.5M more. It's also likely that they think he can play RF, a position almost any team would put him in given his speed and arm strength. You also have to realize that the team that made the trade knows 10 times as much about the player as you could ever know. Law is so convinced of the accuracy of his assessments* that he is disinterested in what the teams believes. In this case he's so sure that O'Neill's offensive decline is the inevitable consequence of his high K rate that he simply reports that it cane "immediately" without offering any evidence or explanation as to why it happened overnight. He then mentions the four injuries an as apparent aside. This is as useful as spam. At best.
* Assuming there may be folks on the board who became Sox fans after 2006, and admittedly because it's just plain fun to repeat, Law was vehemently certain that "Dustin Pedroia lacks the bat speed to hit major league pitching" and that his upside was backup middle-infielder, but he was unlikely to reach even that.
Law has a ton of misses on his resume. Aside from Pedey, Chris Sale and Arrietta come to mind immediately. Every evaluator does though. It’s what it is. This game isn't an exact science. I feel if O'Neill stays healthy, big if, he'll hit 25 homers and be an offensive upgrade over Dugie who is dead friggin average at best. Law’s resting vibe is pessimistic which I understand especially given how hard it is for the majority of prospects to actually stick as major league starters, but at times it makes him comes off as extremely dismissive of anyone that isn’t a top prospect. |
|
|
|
Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Dec 11, 2023 18:02:33 GMT -5
He seems like a great change of scenery guy... butted heads with a manager, two injury plagued seasons removed from being all world, Still young enough to be teachable and might have the personality to fit in with Raffy, Triston, Duran and Yoshida. Could also quickly become a fan favorite in Boston if he rakes. The Monster might be just what he needs to make his eyes big and swing for the fences ( hence the fan graphs take)
|
|
|
|
Post by charmcitysoxfan on Dec 13, 2023 18:29:32 GMT -5
All I’m seeing is that he can’t ever be a candidate for BSOHL. Dude is/was jacked.
Bank on it.
“I’ve made a lot of adaptions to my training program. I’m working with my new trainers this year,” O’Neill said (12:15 in player above). “It involves a lot more intensive warmups, getting my body ready the right way, more shoulder mobility, more hip mobility. I’m on a core program that I do religiously that helps out my back a lot.”
“Implementing full range of motion activity has been really good for me. Getting these deep range of motions, really deep into my hip when I’m doing different lower-body exercises and really focusing on opening up my shoulders before I get onto the bench press and dumbbell press and stuff like that,” he said. “My body’s feeling really good. It’s felt as good as it ever has.
|
|
|
|
Post by keninten on Dec 13, 2023 20:09:05 GMT -5
"I felt that maybe I added a little bit too much bulk the past couple of off-seasons, and that's where some of the injury problems came from. This time I focused more on flexibility, yoga and overall being a little less stiff and more pliable. Kind of like the Tom Brady routine, and the guy was never injured. Honestly, I don't think it ever felt so good. It's like I'm in the best shape of my life."
Bank on it.
“I’ve made a lot of adaptions to my training program. I’m working with my new trainers this year,” O’Neill said (12:15 in player above). “It involves a lot more intensive warmups, getting my body ready the right way, more shoulder mobility, more hip mobility. I’m on a core program that I do religiously that helps out my back a lot.”
“Implementing full range of motion activity has been really good for me. Getting these deep range of motions, really deep into my hip when I’m doing different lower-body exercises and really focusing on opening up my shoulders before I get onto the bench press and dumbbell press and stuff like that,” he said. “My body’s feeling really good. It’s felt as good as it ever has.
Good to hear. His hip is in the best shape of his life. |
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 13, 2023 21:28:20 GMT -5
“I’ve made a lot of adaptions to my training program. I’m working with my new trainers this year,” O’Neill said (12:15 in player above). “It involves a lot more intensive warmups, getting my body ready the right way, more shoulder mobility, more hip mobility. I’m on a core program that I do religiously that helps out my back a lot.” “Implementing full range of motion activity has been really good for me. Getting these deep range of motions, really deep into my hip when I’m doing different lower-body exercises and really focusing on opening up my shoulders before I get onto the bench press and dumbbell press and stuff like that,” he said. “My body’s feeling really good. It’s felt as good as it ever has.
Good to hear. His hip is in the best shape of his life. Not knowing a lot about O'Neill coming in, when I first took a look at his pictures, I thought, "Well, I can see where he could get raw power from, but he looks too muscle-bound to really whip the bat through the zone, which takes upper-body flexibility. I'd think he needs to improve lean muscle strength." It SOUNDS as though he may be at least trying to get himself into better lean strength as opposed to bulk strength, which is what I'd hope for. |
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Dec 14, 2023 15:40:36 GMT -5
Will this guy play RF or LF? If he really has speed and a canon, wouldn't RF be a good spot for him? I guess I haven't seen a defensive scouting report other than the tools.
|
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 5, 2024 11:31:21 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by dcb26 on Jan 5, 2024 17:02:28 GMT -5
I always wonder, when I see park overlays and analysis of how a player would have performed in another park, of how different an approach the player would/could have had, compared to where they actually did play. There aren't too many places where a RHH is going to try and pull popups 300 feet down the line, but anyone who is able to transition their approach to do so is going to thrive in Fenway regardless of how they hit elsewhere, for example. |
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 5, 2024 17:25:20 GMT -5
Mark it down everyone we already got our "I'm in the best shape of my life" statement and we're not even in the new year! Is that a record? In all seriousness though, I'm glad to see that. Some of those pictures I saw the dude looked like he was posing for Mr. Olympia or something. Muscles are great and all but too much can cause diminishing returns. Edit: I'm a fool and the original comment was in jest. However it made me realize I can't wait to read all the "I'm in best shape of my life" statements in about a month or two! John Schreiber let a BSOML slip out on @bradfo's podcast a few weeks ago and bradfo had a party with it... If you work out correctly even with weights you actually increase your flexibility. |
|
|
