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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 28, 2024 7:52:10 GMT -5
Any predictions on who / how much? Casas is the obvious one but I’m going to guess Rafaela.
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Post by sxfan on Mar 28, 2024 8:01:56 GMT -5
Kutter Crawford is my guess. I think they really like his stuff.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 8:04:18 GMT -5
Casas doesn't seem all that motivated to getting an extension done from the quotes I've seen and the Sox rightfully so don't seem inclined to blow the doors off in negotiations on him yet.
Rafaela honestly I don't see the point in giving him an extension. He'll be 24 by the end of the season, has 6 years of service time left so he'll be 29-30 years old when he's eligible to be an FA. We don't know if he can hit MLB pitching, he's got a small build and poor plate discipline. I think he'll be good-great for the bulk of his prime but I don't know that his prime lasts that long into his 30s. He just feels to me like a guy who they'd be better off going year to year with at this juncture. Maybe if he comes out has a good-great year this year revisit next year but right now I don't really see it.
I am going to guess they'd like to get something done with Pivetta and a little bit of a curveball possibly Houck. Does Pivetta necessarily count in their "young core"? I don't know but I do think he's close to if not already a reliable MLB starter which is something at this point in their rebuild/retool they could ill afford to lose next offseason. In terms of Houck, maybe they foresee a breakout type year and they think getting him to sign an extension now before a breakout they could get a potential bargain. Even if he doesn't prove to be a full time MLB SP Houck has proven to be a weapon out of the pen. Maybe they can get him to sign something in the range of what Whitlock signed.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 28, 2024 8:04:47 GMT -5
That's interesting... A Rafaela extension would be awfully bold, as he's totally unproven and there are big questions about his bat. The other one where they've had talks is Houck, right?
I might actually guess Pivetta. Kennedy mentions players who "have grown up in the organization, or players who have been here for many years"...
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 28, 2024 8:24:59 GMT -5
The reason I’m guessing Rafaela is because he’s starting in the majors but there’s still a question around years of service, if they sign him now they can eliminate that question. Agreed it would be risky though, and a big sign of faith in him, but the number could be pretty low.
I like the Pivetta guess also.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 28, 2024 8:43:09 GMT -5
The reason I’m guessing Rafaela is because he’s starting in the majors but there’s still a question around years of service, if they sign him now they can eliminate that question. Agreed it would be risky though, and a big sign of faith in him, but the number could be pretty low. I like the Pivetta guess also. I feel like Rafaela would be the safest possible option of the likely candidates, because he's not proven enough to get an outrageously high number and, even if he doesn't hit, he will almost always have value on a major league team as an elite defensive utility guy. If that's his *floor*, I feel like you can do much worse than locking him up at a reasonable price for the next 7 years of whatever it becomes. I am completely spitballing a number here because I don't have a great sense for what is/isn't a fair extension value (still wading my way into the arb stuff as a fan), but let's say for a clean example it's 7/70. If Rafaela is never anything more than a .300 OBP guy with that same elite glove, which again I think would be his floor, you may not be stoked about committing $10 million a year to that but you're also probably still going to get at least a wash in terms of value, provided he plays enough games at short and in center to bring that defensive value. Pivetta would also be a guy I'd love to extend but he's not exactly "young" from a professional athlete standpoint, so while that could just be looking far too much into semantics, it doesn't seem to fit the comments. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 28, 2024 8:46:47 GMT -5
I have learned my lesson getting excited about something after Sam Kennedy talks. If you listen to the clip it doesn't really sound like he's sitting on completed deal they're about to announce.
Speier has reported Houck and Casas have been approached and it sounds like both of them don't want to sign until they have an improved 2024 season to increase their value.
Grissom, Rafaela and Crawford are the other guys that could sing a long term deal. Crawford is a good candidate - with his injury history and 1 year of service time he's probably scared of not ever securing the bag, but he also has excellent Stuff+ metrics and some major league success so there is upside for the Sox.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 8:52:52 GMT -5
The reason I’m guessing Rafaela is because he’s starting in the majors but there’s still a question around years of service, if they sign him now they can eliminate that question. Agreed it would be risky though, and a big sign of faith in him, but the number could be pretty low. I like the Pivetta guess also. I feel like Rafaela would be the safest possible option of the likely candidates, because he's not proven enough to get an outrageously high number and, even if he doesn't hit, he will almost always have value on a major league team as an elite defensive utility guy. If that's his *floor*, I feel like you can do much worse than locking him up at a reasonable price for the next 7 years of whatever it becomes. I am completely spitballing a number here because I don't have a great sense for what is/isn't a fair extension value (still wading my way into the arb stuff as a fan), but let's say for a clean example it's 7/70. If Rafaela is never anything more than a .300 OBP guy with that same elite glove, which again I think would be his floor, you may not be stoked about committing $10 million a year to that but you're also probably still going to get at least a wash in terms of value, provided he plays enough games at short and in center to bring that defensive value. Pivetta would also be a guy I'd love to extend but he's not exactly "young" from a professional athlete standpoint, so while that could just be looking far too much into semantics, it doesn't seem to fit the comments. I know you're just spitballing here but I almost see 0 upside in giving Rafaela a 7/70M deal. Over the next 6 years he probably won't even make half of 70M, so to me they really wouldn't be doing themselves any favors giving him that type of extension. I wouldn't be upset at giving Rafaela an extension assuming the AAV was in the 10M range I guess but I also just don't see the point either. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Mar 28, 2024 8:56:20 GMT -5
I have learned my lesson getting excited about something after Sam Kennedy talks. If you listen to the clip it doesn't really sound like he's sitting on completed deal they're about to announce. Speier has reported Houck and Casas have been approached and it sounds like both of them don't want to sign until they have an improved 2024 season to increase their value. Grissom, Rafaela and Crawford are the other guys that could sing a long term deal. Crawford is a good candidate - with his injury history and 1 year of service time he's probably scared of not ever securing the bag, but he also has excellent Stuff+ metrics and some major league success so there is upside for the Sox. Yeah, I listened to the interview and didn't get the sense that anything was imminent or even relatively close. He just said he was hopeful something would get done, but also said he didn't really know where things stood with any of the conversations. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 9:04:13 GMT -5
True, most likely scenario is no extensions get completed at this point. That being said I do wonder what a Pivetta extension might look like. Would 3/45 get it done with incentives for more? I do think Pivetta would be a nice rotation piece to keep around if they can get him signed to a deal that works for both sides.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Mar 28, 2024 9:08:20 GMT -5
I feel like Rafaela would be the safest possible option of the likely candidates, because he's not proven enough to get an outrageously high number and, even if he doesn't hit, he will almost always have value on a major league team as an elite defensive utility guy. If that's his *floor*, I feel like you can do much worse than locking him up at a reasonable price for the next 7 years of whatever it becomes. I am completely spitballing a number here because I don't have a great sense for what is/isn't a fair extension value (still wading my way into the arb stuff as a fan), but let's say for a clean example it's 7/70. If Rafaela is never anything more than a .300 OBP guy with that same elite glove, which again I think would be his floor, you may not be stoked about committing $10 million a year to that but you're also probably still going to get at least a wash in terms of value, provided he plays enough games at short and in center to bring that defensive value. Pivetta would also be a guy I'd love to extend but he's not exactly "young" from a professional athlete standpoint, so while that could just be looking far too much into semantics, it doesn't seem to fit the comments. I know you're just spitballing here but I almost see 0 upside in giving Rafaela a 7/70M deal. Over the next 6 years he probably won't even make half of 70M, so to me they really wouldn't be doing themselves any favors giving him that type of extension. I wouldn't be upset at giving Rafaela an extension assuming the AAV was in the 10M range I guess but I also just don't see the point either. Yeah like I said I still don’t have the math right in my head with all the arb years stuff but was more trying to make a general point about Rafaela being able to provide value at that AAV even if he hits his floor. |
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Post by itinerantherb on Mar 28, 2024 9:58:29 GMT -5
The only way Rafaela makes sense right now would be at a much lower AAV. Bello just got 6/55, and he has a year of service time and has the *floor* of a mid-rotation starter. Rafaela has the floor of a bench player. I don't know anything about his background and financial circumstances, but for a lot of players, the opportunity to guarantee fabulous wealth for the rest of their lives would have to be tempting, even if its below the mean projection of what they'd get going through arbitration. Something like 7/35.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 28, 2024 10:00:48 GMT -5
The only guys who I could see getting extensions are Casas, Houck, Pivetta, Crawford and Duran. Everyone else seems too young and unproven for the Sox to want to give them an extension.
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Post by trotman on Mar 28, 2024 10:08:55 GMT -5
The only way Rafaela makes sense right now would be at a much lower AAV. Bello just got 6/55, and he has a year of service time and has the *floor* of a mid-rotation starter. Rafaela has the floor of a bench player. I don't know anything about his background and financial circumstances, but for a lot of players, the opportunity to guarantee fabulous wealth for the rest of their lives would have to be tempting, even if its below the mean projection of what they'd get going through arbitration. Something like 7/35. Spitballing as well here but the two Rafaela comps that come to mind with the similar risk are Jon Singleton (#27 prospect in 2013; 2014 contract after debut signed a 5/$10m w/ escalators up to $35m) and Evan White (#58 prospect at signing; 2019 for 6/$24m buying out arb years plus 3 options). I think the contract would buy out arb years with club or mutual options... lets say 7/35 as mentioned above to buy out arb plus an option or two. |
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Post by nomar on Mar 28, 2024 10:11:27 GMT -5
The only guys who I could see getting extensions are Casas, Houck, Pivetta, Crawford and Duran. Everyone else seems too young and unproven for the Sox to want to give them an extension. Duran won’t be a free agent until he is going into his age 32 season and his game is predicated on speed. There’s no point in extending him even if you believe he will be as good as he was last year. Houck is too unproven. I would say the same for Rafaela. It would be very bold to extend him when the bottom could fall out offensively. I’d guess Crawford or Pivetta, but I’d love to lock Casas up. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Mar 28, 2024 10:14:46 GMT -5
Young and unproven guys are fine extensions candidates too. When the delta between a player's median, or maybe 20th percentile, and mean earnings is large then the Red Sox have a stronger opportunity to sell insurance in the form of a long term deal. With Rafaela you can construct a deal that will predictably be a turkey a signifiant % of the time, but also provide huge savings if he is a long time regular. I would be a huge fan of giving him Colt Keith's deal:
6 years/$28,642,500 (2024-29), plus 2030-32 club options
$2M signing bonus (paid $1M each 2/15/24 and 3/15/24) 24:$2.5M, 25:$3.5M, 26:$4M, 27:$4M, 28:$5M, 29:$5M, 30:$10M club option ($2,642,500 buyout), 31:$13M club option ($1M buyout), 32:$15M club option ($2M buyout) |
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 10:25:06 GMT -5
The only guys who I could see getting extensions are Casas, Houck, Pivetta, Crawford and Duran. Everyone else seems too young and unproven for the Sox to want to give them an extension. Duran won’t be a free agent until he is going into his age 32 season and his game is predicated on speed. There’s no point in extending him even if you believe he will be as good as he was last year. Houck is too unproven. I would say the same for Rafaela. It would be very bold to extend him when the bottom could fall out offensively. I’d guess Crawford or Pivetta, but I’d love to lock Casas up. While Houck is still a bit of an unknown on whether or not he can be a plug and play SP, I don't think he's too unproven overall. He's an effective and valuable MLB pitcher even in the bullpen. If he'd take something along the lines of what Whitlock got I could see that being a good deal for the Sox. |
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 28, 2024 10:28:37 GMT -5
The only guys who I could see getting extensions are Casas, Houck, Pivetta, Crawford and Duran. Everyone else seems too young and unproven for the Sox to want to give them an extension. Duran won’t be a free agent until he is going into his age 32 season and his game is predicated on speed. There’s no point in extending him even if you believe he will be as good as he was last year. Houck is too unproven. I would say the same for Rafaela. It would be very bold to extend him when the bottom could fall out offensively. I’d guess Crawford or Pivetta, but I’d love to lock Casas up. I agree re: Duran, I think it's unlikely. But if he plays the way he did last year for a full season, his arbitration numbers will shoot up. If the Sox think they have that sort of player going forward, they may want to lock up his age 27-31 seasons if it can be had on a team friendly deal.
Rafaela on the other hand I don't understand locking up right now, unless they really think the bat is going to play and the chase rate won't be an issue. But I don't see any downside for the team if they wait even just a year.
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Post by greenmonster on Mar 28, 2024 11:00:22 GMT -5
I would have to think that given the difficulty they had this off-season trying to sign/trade for pitching that they are focused on extensions with their pitchers. After the Bello extension, I am not sure who would be considered "young core" except for Kutter and possibly Houck. Pivetta would be wise to extend but at 31yo not sure if he would be considered young..... All of this is probably giving too much credit to Kennedy's word choice.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 28, 2024 11:20:34 GMT -5
If they get an extension done before opening pitch, so they can add it to the 2024 CBT, it would make me feel far more positive about the offseason.
Crawford seems like the easiest call. Has proven he's a solid big league pitcher and will be 33 for his first free agent season, so he may be motivated to take the money now. Perhaps 54mil/6years with a team option gets it done (the super 2 status skews the numbers a bit).
Problem with Rafaela is that players with defense-first profiles don't do well in arbitration. Unless the Red Sox are convinced his offense will come around, I don't see a way to make it work.
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Post by 0ap0 on Mar 28, 2024 11:23:26 GMT -5
Problem with Rafaela is that players with defense-first profiles don't do well in arbitration. Unless the Red Sox are convinced his offense will come around, I don't see a way to make it work. Doesn't that just mean that he'd be looking at a smaller number? |
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 11:25:06 GMT -5
If they get an extension done before opening pitch, so they can add it to the 2024 CBT, it would make me feel far more positive about the offseason. Crawford seems like the easiest call. Has proven he's a solid big league pitcher and will be 33 for his first free agent season, so he may be motivated to take the money now. Perhaps 54mil/6years with a team option gets it done (the super 2 status skews the numbers a bit). Problem with Rafaela is that players with defense-first profiles don't do well in arbitration. Unless the Red Sox are convinced his offense will come around, I don't see a way to make it work. That is basically what they gave Bello, I'm not giving Crawford anything approaching what Bello got on an extension. Also as you point out, he's not going to be an FA until he's 33. He's a guy who I like, I think he will be a good pitcher to have for his controllable years but I'm not really seeing the point in extending him at this point in time. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 28, 2024 11:38:30 GMT -5
Problem with Rafaela is that players with defense-first profiles don't do well in arbitration. Unless the Red Sox are convinced his offense will come around, I don't see a way to make it work. Doesn't that just mean that he'd be looking at a smaller number? Yes, but it makes it harder to come to an agreement as the Red Sox know he'll likely be cheap through arbitration. Hard to imagine Rafaela's camp agrees to an extension based on the premise his bat doesn't develop. |
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Post by itinerantherb on Mar 28, 2024 11:41:36 GMT -5
If they get an extension done before opening pitch, so they can add it to the 2024 CBT, it would make me feel far more positive about the offseason. Crawford seems like the easiest call. Has proven he's a solid big league pitcher and will be 33 for his first free agent season, so he may be motivated to take the money now. Perhaps 54mil/6years with a team option gets it done (the super 2 status skews the numbers a bit). Problem with Rafaela is that players with defense-first profiles don't do well in arbitration. Unless the Red Sox are convinced his offense will come around, I don't see a way to make it work. That is basically what they gave Bello, I'm not giving Crawford anything approaching what Bello got on an extension. Also as you point out, he's not going to be an FA until he's 33. He's a guy who I like, I think he will be a good pitcher to have for his controllable years but I'm not really seeing the point in extending him at this point in time. This is such an important point, especially for the player's side. It's one thing to be heading toward free agency at 29 and planning for your big payday then. It's totally another to be hitting free agency already a couple years into your decline phase. If anything, accepting a lower-value extension--in, say, the 6/30 to 6/40 range--is probably the best opportunity for a late-ish bloomer like Crawford to cash in. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 28, 2024 11:50:41 GMT -5
That is basically what they gave Bello, I'm not giving Crawford anything approaching what Bello got on an extension. Also as you point out, he's not going to be an FA until he's 33. He's a guy who I like, I think he will be a good pitcher to have for his controllable years but I'm not really seeing the point in extending him at this point in time. It may seem similar to the Bello contract, but you're substituting an arb-4 year for a league minimum year - in my mind that's ~14mil in savings. An apples-to-apples comparison would be 41mil/6yr; so would you be willing to give him 75% of what Bello is getting? If yes, then 54mil would be a ~1mil savings (I'm also assuming a lower team-option; maybe 15mil). The motivation for the team would be to use up some of the CBT dollars this year while lowering his AAV for years 4-6. If he takes less that would be great, but they are almost out of time, so they don't have a great deal of leverage. |
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