Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2013 15:00:25 GMT -5
It's a small sample, but Mortensen has been more effective in his career from pitches 26-50 than he has been in the first 25. At first glance, one might think that's due his early career stint as a starter, but it's been even more pronounced since he joined the Red Sox - though again, the sample is so small that it's not worth reading anything into. Also, my general feeling is that he loses less in multiple innings beacuse his fastball is fringe-average. He's not a guy who gains a ton of velocity in short bursts, which is why he's the perfect type to extend to multiple innings.
Also, I think Mortensen's command is pretty good in general, particularly of his slider.
My larger point is this. If you leave Mortensen in for three innings, there's a fair chance he'll give up a run. Maybe even two. But the chances he'll give up five are pretty slim, because he's a solid pitcher. If that saves Tazawa/Uehara/Breslow from having to get into the game, then it's a double win. Sure, it's great when Uehara pitches a scoreless 8th and the Red Sox win 6-1, but it's no more of a win than if Mortensen comes out for another inning, gives up two runs, and they win 6-3. There's a borderline-irrational fear of relievers giving up runs. You see it here in the gameday threads - every time a reliever gives up a run, it's a sign he's either a bad pitcher or of overuse/underuse. Relievers give up runs sometimes - trying to manage in a way that prevents a pitcher from ever doing so, at the expense of burning up the entire bullpen is a poor strategy for the long grind of the season. I mean, the Red Sox are fourth in the American League in innings per start, yet we're dealing with talk of a burned out bullpen in mid-May. Part of that is the Bailey/Hanrahan injuries, but every team faces injuries. Let Mortensen and Wilson pitch multiple innings, and come August, Uehara and Tazawa will be sharper.
Also, I think Mortensen's command is pretty good in general, particularly of his slider.
My larger point is this. If you leave Mortensen in for three innings, there's a fair chance he'll give up a run. Maybe even two. But the chances he'll give up five are pretty slim, because he's a solid pitcher. If that saves Tazawa/Uehara/Breslow from having to get into the game, then it's a double win. Sure, it's great when Uehara pitches a scoreless 8th and the Red Sox win 6-1, but it's no more of a win than if Mortensen comes out for another inning, gives up two runs, and they win 6-3. There's a borderline-irrational fear of relievers giving up runs. You see it here in the gameday threads - every time a reliever gives up a run, it's a sign he's either a bad pitcher or of overuse/underuse. Relievers give up runs sometimes - trying to manage in a way that prevents a pitcher from ever doing so, at the expense of burning up the entire bullpen is a poor strategy for the long grind of the season. I mean, the Red Sox are fourth in the American League in innings per start, yet we're dealing with talk of a burned out bullpen in mid-May. Part of that is the Bailey/Hanrahan injuries, but every team faces injuries. Let Mortensen and Wilson pitch multiple innings, and come August, Uehara and Tazawa will be sharper.