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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 20, 2014 11:02:31 GMT -5
I'm not a Stanton guy but like you mentioned he's only 24 and still developing. If you like Bradley, and his chances of developing with the bat then Stanton is a no brainer.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 20, 2014 11:13:33 GMT -5
I hadn't seen that but it's not surprising given Mookie's game yesterday that light bulbs would go off across the country over this guy. He is putting up such exceptional numbers after a breakout year in 2013. I was looking at him in more depth last night and his .453 BA reminded me of Ellsbury's .452 in AA. I then looked at him in comparison to Ellsbury's minor league development and to my surprise Mookie looked better. Mookie sure looks for real to me at this point. And the total game stands out. Offense, defense, base running, even some pop. This guy might end up at Xander's level, as a potential overall # 1, but his size would make that extremely unlikely. I doubt if any player his size has ever been an overall BA #1. As Evan Lepler said "Mookie Betts isn't human". At this point, I'm a believer. The other day I bought plane tickets and several game tickets to fly all the way from California in part to see this guy play next week. I'm now like one of those characters in "Close encounters of the Third Kind", making mountain models on the kitchen table.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 20, 2014 11:33:59 GMT -5
I hadn't seen that but it's not surprising given Mookie's game yesterday that light bulbs would go off across the country over this guy. He is putting up such exceptional numbers after a breakout year in 2013. I was looking at him in more depth last night and his .453 BA reminded me of Ellsbury's .452 in AA. I then looked at him in comparison to Ellsbury's minor league development and to my surprise Mookie looked better. Mookie sure looks for real to me at this point. And the total game stands out. Offense, defense, base running, even some pop. This guy might end up at Xander's level, as a potential overall # 1, but his size would make that extremely unlikely. I doubt if any player his size has ever been an overall BA #1. As Evan Lepler said "Mookie Betts isn't human". At this point, I'm a believer. The other day I bought plane tickets and several game tickets to fly all the way from California in part to see this guy play next week. I'm now like one of those characters in "Close encounters of the Third Kind", making mountain models on the kitchen table. I plan to be in the Portland area for a month starting mid-May so hopefully Mookie will still be there....unless of course he is in Cooperstown being inducted.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2014 12:21:17 GMT -5
Hate to say goodbye to mookie but everyday and 2x in Sunday I throw him in for Stanton. No brainer. Stanton has always been a player waiting to explode. He's showing it this year. Bye mookie And what has Stanton done? Oh is he the one that hits the LONG Home runs? Do they count as 2 or 3 runs or just 1? Does he play great defense? Is he always healthy? Wait I know, is that the guy that averages over a K per game lifetime? So his approach is to swing as hard as hell and hope I make contact? Look Stanton is a HR hitter and that's it, he is no OBP machine a la Dunn or an RBI machine. He is a good young power hitter. There's no need for the Red Sox to sell the farm for someone who will most likely win a Body Building championship over an MVP. Yes I know he plays in Florida and he has no help and he is only 24 yrs. old (25 in November) but I rather wait, lose a pick and lots of cash (free agency) than give up on someone as good as Mookie or anyone else for that matter. It is true that once a player really gets some buzz going on these prospect lists, there's serious interest in making that player the centerpiece for some cataclysmic trade. Xander was the same way, with Stanton again the object of a lot of posters' affection. In fact, I think we could improve the site a lot with a Stanton index. The higher the index, the more valuable the prospect. So, what was Xander's Stanton index, and what is Betts'?
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Post by jchang on Apr 20, 2014 12:25:49 GMT -5
for me to give up Mookie, I would want Stanton + 1 (MLB) top 30 prospect edit: I might want more than that
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 20, 2014 13:18:33 GMT -5
for me to give up Mookie, I would want Stanton + 1 (MLB) top 30 prospect edit: I might want more than that Another true believer! How is that mountain looking on your kitchen table!
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Post by malynn19 on Apr 20, 2014 13:33:41 GMT -5
for me to give up Mookie, I would want Stanton + 1 (MLB) top 30 prospect edit: I might want more than that Another true believer! How is that mountain looking on your kitchen table! If Mookie was 6'2" 210bs no one here would be trying to trade him. We would just be saying, hey he hit 15 Hrs last year, he might hit 25 this year, but his lack of size doesn't encourage anyone. I don't know what type of player Mookie might turn out to be, but I really like guys with great Hand to Eye coordination. Mookie seems to be the first five tool we had since Hanley Ramirez, I am not saying he will be better than Xander or Hanley I am just saying he has all the tools to make it work.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 20, 2014 13:44:24 GMT -5
When Mookie gets up, the chant should be:
MOOOOOOOOOOOOK! ( similar to YOOOOOOOOK ). Officially reserved for Greek gods' of on base percentage.
Let's get it started!
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Post by jchang on Apr 20, 2014 14:35:03 GMT -5
I did not see Mookie in either 2012 or 2013 (Owens had already been promoted to AA). Mookie's 2012 stats look perfectly respectable to me, both BA and OBP. My theory is that the little guys don't have strength to hit out of the infield until a later age than the linebacker size guys. So a talented little guy might have lots of ground outs, then bang, all of a sudden those outs are now singles. I am still high on Owens, with luck and patience, developing into a 3 starter. At some point, we need to consider whether Mookie should rate as grade 7, in which case he will be the #1 prospect after Xander graduates. I am with the chant!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 20, 2014 15:27:30 GMT -5
Another true believer! How is that mountain looking on your kitchen table! If Mookie was 6'2" 210bs no one here would be trying to trade him. We would just be saying, hey he hit 15 Hrs last year, he might hit 25 this year, but his lack of size doesn't encourage anyone. I don't know what type of player Mookie might turn out to be, but I really like guys with great Hand to Eye coordination. Mookie seems to be the first five tool we had since Hanley Ramirez, I am not saying he will be better than Xander or Hanley I am just saying he has all the tools to make it work. Yeah, because if he was bigger he would legitimately have more power potential. I like Mookie a lot, but it's absolutely fair to say that at his size he's not hitting 25 homers probably ever. It's not a coincidence that all the best power hitters in baseball are between about 6' and 6'4", and between about 190 and 240 pounds. There's an ideal body type for a power hitter and Mookie is about a million miles away from it. As far as trading him goes... that's a whole different thing. Everyone's tradable in the right deal, but speculation is about 99.9% useless, and I'm being generous with that 0.1%.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 20, 2014 16:23:24 GMT -5
Here's a short list of the top HR hitters who were 5'10" or shorter. Kirby Pucket (5'8"): 207 HRs - topped 20 HRs 6 times and career ended early Ivan Rodriguez (5'9"): 311 HRs Willie Mays (5'10"): 660 HRs (listed as 5'11" in some places) Yogi Berra (5'7"): 358 HRs Mel Ott (5'9"): 511 HRs
Anytime you compare a prospect to an all-time great it seems a bit ridiculous, but it can clearly isn't 'impossible' that he develops a serious power stroke. If you look at the top HR hitters of all-time, you will find far more guys at 6' (only 3" taller than Mookie) than you will at 6'3". I think height is a bit overrated when it comes to power guys as a quick wrists and a strong base seem to be the most important components. Remember, you don't need to hit it 500 feet, only 300 - 420' consistently. With the consistent part seeming to be the toughest aspect.
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Post by jmei on Apr 20, 2014 16:38:21 GMT -5
It's not just that Betts is short, its that he also has a slight frame and doesn't project to put on much more weight/muscle mass. Betts is listed at 156 lbs, and while he's probably a little heavier than that nowadays, he's still a pretty skinny guy ( here are some recent pictures from friend-of-the-site Kelly O'Connor-- I'd be surprised if he was more than 170 or so). There aren't many short, skinny guys who are major power hitters. It doesn't mean he can't hit 25+ home runs consistently in the major leagues, but it does mean that the cards are pretty stacked against him doing so.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2014 16:49:33 GMT -5
It's not just that Betts is short, its that he also has a slight frame and doesn't project to put on much more weight/muscle mass. Betts is listed at 156 lbs, and while he's probably a little heavier than that nowadays, he's still a pretty skinny guy ( here are some recent pictures from friend-of-the-site Kelly O'Connor-- I'd be surprised if he was more than 170 or so). There aren't many short, skinny guys who are major power hitters. It doesn't mean he can't hit 25+ home runs consistently in the major leagues, but it does mean that the cards are pretty stacked against him doing so. I see no reason why he couldn't match Pedroia's power and that would be just fine.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 20, 2014 16:50:02 GMT -5
Mel Ott 5'9" 170 pounds. Yes the odds are stacked against Mookie, in fact they're stacked against anyone hitting 500 homers in a career but suppose it 15 to 20 HR consistently with a boatload of doubles - then you're getting in the neighborhood of this guy www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/evansdw01.shtml
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 20, 2014 20:22:58 GMT -5
Here's a short list of the top HR hitters who were 5'10" or shorter. Kirby Pucket (5'8"): 207 HRs - topped 20 HRs 6 times and career ended early Ivan Rodriguez (5'9"): 311 HRs Willie Mays (5'10"): 660 HRs (listed as 5'11" in some places) Yogi Berra (5'7"): 358 HRs Mel Ott (5'9"): 511 HRs Anytime you compare a prospect to an all-time it seems a bit ridiculous, but it can clearly isn't 'impossible' that he develops a serious power stroke. If you look at the top HR hitters of all-time, you will find far more guys at 6' (only 3" taller than Mookie) than you will at 6'3". I think height is a bit overrated when it comes to power guys as a quick wrists and a strong base seem to be the most important components. Remember, you don't need to hit it 500 feet, only 300 - 420' consistently. With the consistent part seeming to be the toughest aspect. On the Fangraphs leaderboards, I sorted by ISO over the last three calendar years for qualified batters. Of the top 20 guys, ONE of them was under six feet. Adrian Beltre, 5'11". You can find exceptions -- most of them from decades ago when athletes in general were smaller -- but the reality is that 5'9" guys don't hit for a lot of power, certainly not it today's game.
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Post by beany24 on Apr 20, 2014 20:52:56 GMT -5
How about Joe Morgan? 5-7, 160 lbs. 268 HRs and 1133 RBI.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 20, 2014 20:54:08 GMT -5
How about Joe Morgan? 5-7, 160 lbs. 268 HRs and 1133 RBI. You can find exceptions -- most of them from decades ago when athletes in general were smaller -- but the reality is that 5'9" guys don't hit for a lot of power, certainly not it today's game. Joe Morgan hit for power! And literally hundreds of other small second baseman didn't... but whatever, they don't matter, clearly we should comp Betts to the best second baseman in the history of the game.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 20, 2014 22:07:43 GMT -5
It's not a killer if he doesn't hit for more than 10-15 HR. He can be a 5 WAR player with the power he has shown so far.
I'm not worried about it. He's an alien I tell you.
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Post by taftreign on Apr 20, 2014 23:14:16 GMT -5
We can agree diminutive players don't generally possess 20 plus homer power. Mass does factor in when considering transferring power to the baseball but another important factor is bat speed through the zone. I wouldn't be shocked to find a correlation between 5'10 ish players w power and quick bat speed. I would put Pedroia in this class. Betts likely grades out between above average and plus when it comes to bat speed. What's the scouting consensus for those who have seen him recently?
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 21, 2014 0:06:10 GMT -5
He has very good bat speed. But his quick hands mainly generated sneaky power.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 21, 2014 0:06:24 GMT -5
This thread has turned kinda funny. Here's a player with superior defensive skills who plays in the middle of the diamond, someone who's a superb baserunner, and who's been a charter member of the .300/.400/.500 club in A, and A+. So far he's killing it in AA and we're arguing about whether he's good for 25 and not 15 home runs? Gimme a break, people.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 21, 2014 1:35:16 GMT -5
It's not a killer if he doesn't hit for more than 10-15 HR. He can be a 5 WAR player with the power he has shown so far. I'm not worried about it. He's an alien I tell you. No one is arguing that.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 21, 2014 4:57:54 GMT -5
To me Mookie is a 4.5 tool player. He probably does not have top level power. That and his size probably keeps him from being a top 5 BA prospect but he looks like a potential star level player in mlb, and there is nothing at all wrong with that. We'll take em!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2014 5:09:18 GMT -5
Limited observations.
First, pretty much every AB I've listened to has been a quality AB, he doesn't let up. Some of the more interesting ones:
The third hit yesterday was a two hopper to the second baseman. It's not human to beat that out. After the play, the second baseman stood and looked at Mookie, he couldn't believe it. Antonilis couldn't either.
Almost all of the balls he hits into play are between dead left and dead right. It's rare that even foul balls are hit down the line. He almost never swings and misses so, he's also then rarely out in front or behind.
In the interview, Mookie said he was looking fastball but got a change on the HR. Antonelis' comment was WOW, what quick hands. He must have spotted the change, held back then driven the ball over the fence with his wrists.
On the video shown about three pages ago that people were impressed, the AB was actually even more impressive. The pitch before that pitch was pretty much the same low and away breaking ball but the count was 2-1 so, Mookie was probably looking fastball and didn't take a swing at it for a called strike. Now with the count 2-2, he was ready for that pitch and drove it so hard that the ball speed was the only thing that kept that from being a triple.
The other night, runner on third, one out. Left side defense normal depth, right side in. They were trying to prevent the run. The pitcher threw four pitches on the inside black which Mookie didn't offer at because he was trying to hit the ball to the right side. With a two strike count the pitcher threw another one there and Mookie inside-outed the swing and generated an RBI flare over the second baseman's head, again, exactly what he was trying to do.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 21, 2014 12:28:28 GMT -5
Hate to feed the monster, but whatever, let's get excited:
Mookie leads the EL in avg and obp. He is merely third in slg, but is behind players who are 4.5 and nearly 6 years older than him.
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