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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by malynn19 on Apr 21, 2014 14:52:48 GMT -5
Hate to feed the monster, but whatever, let's get excited: Mookie leads the EL in avg and obp. He is merely third in slg, but is behind players who are 4.5 and nearly 6 years older than him. FEED ME SEYMORE!!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 21, 2014 18:20:40 GMT -5
Before tonight's game Mookie was averaging a run every 3 AB. In other words:
600AB = 200 runs.
Mookie clearly isn't human!
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 22, 2014 3:48:57 GMT -5
Hate to feed the monster, but whatever, let's get excited: Mookie leads the EL in avg and obp. He is merely third in slg, but is behind players who are 4.5 and nearly 6 years older than him. Monster growth... Mookie leads organized baseball in avg and obp. Also for those comping Mookie's 2014 to Jacoby's 2007 (earily similar stats), 3 important distinctions, first, in the previous year, Jacoby had 198 ABs at AA, this is Mookie's first AA go-round and second, Jacoby was 23 at the time, Mookie 21 and finally, Jacoby was human.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 22, 2014 4:15:10 GMT -5
Hate to feed the monster, but whatever, let's get excited: Mookie leads the EL in avg and obp. He is merely third in slg, but is behind players who are 4.5 and nearly 6 years older than him. I'm going to construct, on the fly, the wRC+ leaderboard for the entire minors, the criterion being prospects with max age 23 in AAA, 22 in AA, and so on. This is variously a day or two out of date, because FanGraphs is, but what the heck ... Everybody with 175 or better, plus super-young players (21 in AAA, 20 in AA, etc.) above 150. Players a year older than most italicized. Players at premium defensive positions in red. 241 Mookie Betts (21, AA, 2B, Red Sox #7)238 Ryan McMahon (19, A, 3B, Rockies #8) 234 Joc Pederson (22, AAA, CF, Dodgers #1) 210 Joey Gallo (20, A+, 3B, Rangers #4) 208 Kris Bryant (22, AA, 3B, Cubs #2)207 Gregory Polanco (22, AAA, CF, Pirates #1) 202 Dante Bichette (21, A+, 3B, Yankees depth chart)197 Jon Singleton (22, AAA, 1B, Astros #7) 193 Brandon Nimmo (21, A+, LF, Mets #8)193 Clint Coulter (20, A, C, Brewers #11)187 Tyler Goeddel (21, A+, 3B, Rays #22)179 Wendell Rijo (18, A, 2B, Red Sox #18)176 Courtney Hawkins (20, A+, RF, White Sox #6) 169 Franmil Reyes (18, A, RF, Padres unlisted)167 Ketel Marte (20, AA, 2B, Mariners #20)
So, Mookie is leading the minors and has a huge lead over anyone else who's playing at the premium end of the defensive spectrum. This doesn't include his 2/5, 2B, SB. And Wendell Rijo was leading the minors in wRC+ by the super-young, despite also playing a premium defensive position (and was 3rd overall among the latter). And since then, he's gone 3/6, 2B, HR, BB.That Franmil Reyes was left off the Padres depth chart by Matt Eddy is a bit weird, given that he's 6'5", 240, and as a 17 y/o in rookie ball last year hit .315 / .387 / .467. He only qualifies for being 18 by 5 days, however.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 22, 2014 5:01:36 GMT -5
Based on Eric's data, it wouldn't be much of a stretch to guess that Mookie would be running away with the Davenports.
Mookie . . . . . People not Mookie
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 22, 2014 9:05:51 GMT -5
Sp, it seems POSSIBLE that Mookie can become one of the top 5 prospects in baseball if he finishes the year strong. What would possibly set him over the top might be some exceptional SB numbers along with continued overall success but I for one think it is in his interest at this point to go on a glide path in that department. The biggest concern right now is for him to get hurt. He's a small guy and he's doing a lot of things which could potentially effect him, especially in the SB department. One thing Ellsbury appeared to do well ( to me ) was limit the activities he did which might get him hurt, at least some in the minors and early majors. For Ellsbury it meant fewer dives for balls in CF, unlike guys like Kalish who appeared to me to be just the opposite. Going " all out" might not be in his interest at this point. Staying healthy is at more of a premium.
I wonder if Mookie has more in the tank in regards to stealing bases. His CS percentage is much better than Ellsbury's was at the same level, with similar steal numbers. As it seems Betts is looking to be a potential leadoff or #2 hitter, does he have great SB skills as well? Better ones than we might anticipate given the overall numbers in the past?
EDIT: Mookie had 8 steals with 2 CS last fall in the AFL, a more mature league and his first experience at that level. In 59 AB. Extrapolate on that number to 600 AB and you would have 80 steals. It would seem at least possible that Mookie could become one of the guys potentially contending for a SB crown in the AL. In the top 5-10 given his early indications. This would appear to be a relatively undiscussed part of his game. If this guy gets on base a lot, and can run well, and be a #1 or 2 hitter, he could be a big base stealer as well. I do recognize that early steal numbers in the minors are almost worthless but we are getting to the higher levels now, in the AFL and AA. He's still putting up good numbers. As compared to guys like Cechinni who has come back to earth at the higher levels in the SB department. It is still very early to tell, and Mookie's SB numbers could also be related to how many times he has been getting on base but he only hit .271 in the AFL but he stole bases well then also. He might be a guy who could run more if he wanted.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 22, 2014 10:00:59 GMT -5
Mookie doesn't "steal" bases. They give themselves up willingly when he asks. #powerofmookie
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Post by oilcansman on Apr 22, 2014 11:02:34 GMT -5
Amusing that it's April and already some posters are speculating on his post season prospect rank if Mookie "finishes" the season strong. He's about 60 at bats into the season. Has about, oh, 400 to go.
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Post by jdb on Apr 22, 2014 11:16:08 GMT -5
From Speier today. Not a bad 44 game stretch. fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/04/22/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-brandon-workman-strike-throwing-machine-pivotal-performance-for-mookie-betts-cody-kukuk-breaking-through-wendell-rijo-ahead-of-his-years/Betts also, naturally, went 2-for-5 with a double and a steal. He’s hitting .448 with a .484 OBP, .707 slugging mark, 10 extra-base hits, five walks, seven strikeouts and five steals in 14 games to date. The 21-year-old has now reached in 44 straight regular season games dating to last year in Salem, with an insane line during that time of .429 with a .492 OBP, .673 slugging mark, seven homers, 25 extra-base hits, 21 walks, 16 strikeouts and 17 steals.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 22, 2014 11:37:40 GMT -5
When you have more extra base hits than strike outs, and more steals than strike outs.....you know you're doing something right.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 22, 2014 11:47:49 GMT -5
against LHP, in 2014, 23 PA: .696/1.000/1.696 with 4 walks and zero(!) strikeouts.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 22, 2014 11:56:29 GMT -5
Mookie's initials are MLB
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ianrs
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Posts: 2,418
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Post by ianrs on Apr 22, 2014 11:59:21 GMT -5
Mookie's initials are MLB Nominated for post of the day. Well done, sir. Cannot wait to see where Mookie sits around the ASB. Thinking a call-up to Pawtucket might not be out of the question assuming he keeps up anything close to his current pace. I know it won't come up for at least a year, but about this whole 2B logjam... Good problems to have I guess.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2014 12:05:11 GMT -5
Seriously, they need to start working him out at another position.
I know by saying this I am inviting the wrath of the "These things work themselves out" meme, but he's a good enough athlete who won't suddenly forget 2nd base if (God forbid) Pedroia has a career-ending injury. But assuming Pedroia is static and productive for the next few years, I'd rather having Mookie playing a little LF/SS/RF now than trying to jam it down his throat in AAA when his mind should be more focused on getting to the show - and yes, by stating this I'm now invoking the wrath of the "Xander did it" meme, but he's not Xander. If they envision him as a Zobrist-clone then start working it. If this trajectory continues (and here I invoke the, "I know, a lot of developmental steps still to go here" meme/caveat), he needs a place to play at the MLB level.
Unless of course you tell me they have a package lined up for Fernandez or Stanton (wrath of "Can we stop with this" meme now summoned) and Mookie is a must have for Miami in that. Then, OK, farewell and get it done.
OK, point made, invoking of memes completed.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 22, 2014 12:09:22 GMT -5
There is no such thing as a Zobrist clone. Maybe ever. That's the worst meme ever.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Apr 22, 2014 12:15:06 GMT -5
I think it's totally fine to start thinking about Mookie moving to another position... he's now close enough to the MLB that it's within the realm of reality to think about where he'll play once he gets there. Yes, "these things work themselves out," but we're not talking about random MLB starters at 2nd and SS for the Red Sox; we're talking about the cornerstone of the team in one case and one of the best rookies to come up in years in the other (although his range seems a little too Jeter-esque). The team also has 3 other young players on the left side of the infield that may be MLB-worthy in WMB, Cecchini, and Marrero. So, what do you do?
I continue to believe that RF is worth a shot with Mookie. He's got a decent arm, and he's really quick and athletic. I mean, he hasn't been power-shagging fly balls for years, but let's see if he can be a decent outfielder ... if he can do it, and he continues to hit, he plugs a huge, huge hole in the development pipeline.
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Post by jchang on Apr 22, 2014 12:17:17 GMT -5
11 of the top 15 MLB 2014 prospects are position player with overall 65 or higher. Only the top 3 are 70 or higher. Funny thing is that overall is not the average of the 5 elements. In Xander's case, his average is 60, but his overall is 70. I would think that if Mookie were to finish this season BA over 350, it would be hard to give him less than an 80 on hit. Even his HR is not high, given the rate of XBH, his Power should also be good? Add good defense to this, Mookie would then be among the MLB top 5. Of course, it is a longer season, Lets see: Mookie for Stanton + Fernandez sounds fair to me.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 22, 2014 12:37:02 GMT -5
There is no such thing as a Zobrist clone. Maybe ever. That's the worst meme ever. I'll add it to the list.
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Post by okin15 on Apr 22, 2014 13:38:48 GMT -5
I'm going to construct, on the fly, the wRC+ leaderboard for the entire minors, the criterion being prospects with max age 23 in AAA, 22 in AA, and so on. This is variously a day or two out of date, because FanGraphs is, but what the heck ... So, Mookie is leading the minors and has a huge lead over anyone else who's playing at the premium end of the defensive spectrum. This doesn't include his 2/5, 2B, SB. So you're leaving out a 23yo Ellsbury in 2007? I understand that this is a list of young-ish prospects for their level, but you can't get a good read on where Mookie is in the minors unless you include all prospects*, including those who went to college. Issues with sample size in addition to potential cherry picking, advancement curves dependent on playing in college, etc. *note, I'm not saying "all MiLB players", just the ones who are legitimate prospects... the way Ells was in 2007.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 22, 2014 13:56:00 GMT -5
... EDIT: Mookie had 8 steals with 2 CS last fall in the AFL, a more mature league and his first experience at that level. In 59 AB. Extrapolate on that number to 600 AB and you would have 80 steals. .... Right, we can totally extrapolate from AFL SB stats, because when pitchers go to the AFL all they really want to work on is holding runners on.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 22, 2014 14:48:38 GMT -5
I'm going to construct, on the fly, the wRC+ leaderboard for the entire minors, the criterion being prospects with max age 23 in AAA, 22 in AA, and so on. This is variously a day or two out of date, because FanGraphs is, but what the heck ... So, Mookie is leading the minors and has a huge lead over anyone else who's playing at the premium end of the defensive spectrum. This doesn't include his 2/5, 2B, SB. So you're leaving out a 23yo Ellsbury in 2007? I understand that this is a list of young-ish prospects for their level, but you can't get a good read on where Mookie is in the minors unless you include all prospects*, including those who went to college. Issues with sample size in addition to potential cherry picking, advancement curves dependent on playing in college, etc. *note, I'm not saying "all MiLB players", just the ones who are legitimate prospects... the way Ells was in 2007. "Criterion being max age 23 in AAA" means that if you're 23 in AAA, you fit the criterion (or at least has traditionally meant so to native English speakers). Hence Kris Bryant, 22 in AA is listed. The guys I'm excluding are 24 in AAA, 23 in AAA, and so on -- guys who are definitely old for their level. The only guy left out who's a significant prospect is George Springer, who's off to a great start, but is 24, and is only in AAA because the Astros want to slow his arbitration clock.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 22, 2014 16:48:32 GMT -5
... EDIT: Mookie had 8 steals with 2 CS last fall in the AFL, a more mature league and his first experience at that level. In 59 AB. Extrapolate on that number to 600 AB and you would have 80 steals. .... Right, we can totally extrapolate from AFL SB stats, because when pitchers go to the AFL all they really want to work on is holding runners on. I'm just trying to make the point that Mookie's SB numbers are staying significant as he moves up the minor league ladder. He has not dropped off as so many other prospects have. And compare his numbers to Ellsbury's at the same age. Even with Ellsbury's speed, he was not that great a base stealer in the minors. Mookie's CS numbers are excellent. Point being that Mookie may well have more steals in the tank even at the mlb level. At this point in his career, Mookie looks to be a better base stealer than Ellsbury was at the same age and level, according to the numbers, and it's not even close.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 22, 2014 16:52:38 GMT -5
It's not crazy to think that given his start, Mookie might be one of the very few guys who could be a september call up, when starting the year in AA. If there is an injury and we are potentially in the playoffs. He's a tremendous all around athlete and doing well defensively. He has the mature hitting approach...etc. Certainly he has things still to learn but this guy has JBJ level intangibles. Chances are probably not much more than 10% of this happening but IMO, they are not it could happen.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 22, 2014 19:15:34 GMT -5
There's no need to try him anywhere besides 2b yet ( with the possible exception of SS). At this point his trade value is still a bigger factor than his ability to help the big league club, and showing teams that he's a stud at second is important.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 22, 2014 19:32:37 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see if the Sox move Mookie, I'd like to see him moved to SS. I know often a player moves from SS to second because they are perceived as not being good enough for SS and/or the have a weaker arm etc etc etc. I've often speculated if Mookie was the exception to this rule. Right when the Sox moved Mookie off of SS, they drafted a SS with their first pick and moved Betts over when they sent Marrero to Lowell. This was also a time when the Sox had Bogaerts, and Iglesias in the system....and even Jose Vinicio was considered a good prospect then (#18 in 2012)
If the Sox did in fact move Mookie off of SS because they had perceived tremendous depth at the SS position, and not because they questioned his ability to handle the position, then it seems logical to see if he can make the shift back. If he could do what he is doing now at SS then he would be become a VERY valuable asset to this organization one way or another (then again, it's looking like he will be that at 2nd as well)
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