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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by okin15 on Jul 11, 2014 14:55:20 GMT -5
OK, cool. Also, when I compared him to Holt, I only meant he'd be worse in the quite short run. Still, I'd rather test him there in the spring. And quite frankly, I want Xander back at SS. He was so good there his last few games, and he's such a gifted athlete, not to mention a hard worker.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 11, 2014 14:57:36 GMT -5
I definitely think you can take his range at 2B and translate it to SS. I think it's only the arm that is the question, and the short transition to turning DP's backwards from what he's used to (though SS is easier than 2B for those) Didn't we JUST have someone come out and talk about how there are other differences, like a totally different angle, different assignments, positioning, needs to charge because of the longer throw, ranging away from the plate to his left rather than right, etc. ADD: "the hole" is a thing that doesn't exist for the second baseman. Any ball reached in "the mirror hole" is caught right near first and is a really short throw. I think you need quicker range (not necessarily greater range if that makes any sense) to play SS in order to take the burden off of the arm. This is magnified when the arm is jeteresque. Maybe quicker hands makes up for the difference? Again, I'm not saying Mookie doesn't have the quicker range or the faster hands, just that we can't know from his work at the keystone. Again, I'm not saying it's impossible for him to switch, but I don't think it's just plug and play.
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 11, 2014 14:59:16 GMT -5
I definitely think you can take his range at 2B and translate it to SS. I think it's only the arm that is the question, and the short transition to turning DP's backwards from what he's used to (though SS is easier than 2B for those) Yeah, I have no doubt that he's capable of covering an impressive amount of ground no matter what the position is. Still, there's a bit more too it than that and raw arm strength when comparing the two positions. Look at Dee Gordon -- he went from being an atrocious defensive SS to a solid 2B this year, although he admittedly wasn't blessed with Mookie's hands. The combination of needing agility, good hands, solid footwork, and a good arm combine to make the position all-around more challenging than 2B. But without ever having seen him there, Mookie can almost definitely handle it. In fact, the only legitimate reason I can see for them not trying him there is the emerging presence of Deven Marrero.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 11, 2014 15:02:28 GMT -5
I definitely think you can take his range at 2B and translate it to SS. I think it's only the arm that is the question, and the short transition to turning DP's backwards from what he's used to (though SS is easier than 2B for those) From what people have been saying, and what we've seen of his arm in RF, I think it would be playable at SS- I imagine he'd have trouble going to the SS hole and making the throw from the outfield grass, but doesn't everyone outside of Tulo, Simmons and a few others? Even if he just turns a few singles into left into infield hits, that probably saves us a few runs from what bogaerts would do at SS over the course of a full season, and a few more ranging to his left behind 2b, where he would likely turn a few hits into outs, make him probably a significant upgrade over Xander there. Difficult to see him getting reps there before next spring though, and even then, I think in the long run, SS is Marrero's spot until he's dealt or makes it clear he can't hit big league pitching- both of which are possible, but given that Mookie doesn't have an established (unblocked) position at this stage and has the athleticism to be average or better around the outfield, I think that's probably where he sticks
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2014 15:13:26 GMT -5
I think pretty much everything is being held up by what they actually decide on with Xander and to a lesser extent, WMB. They can't really put Mookie anywhere but the outfield until they make some kind of decision.
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Post by jdb on Jul 11, 2014 15:23:44 GMT -5
Say Mookie does get switched to SS could he go to the Arizona Fall League to play it? To many days on the 25 man?
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Post by mattpicard on Jul 11, 2014 15:26:32 GMT -5
I think pretty much everything is being held up by what they actually decide on with Xander and to a lesser extent, WMB. They can't really put Mookie anywhere but the outfield until they make some kind of decision. With Marrero and Mookie, I just can't imagine Bogaerts' really being our starting shortstop for the next couple years. He's 3B, and if that fails, LF. Count me as one of the people who has no faith in WMB to be anything more than a platoon bat with decent defense at the corners.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 11, 2014 15:29:23 GMT -5
I think pretty much everything is being held up by what they actually decide on with Xander and to a lesser extent, WMB. They can't really put Mookie anywhere but the outfield until they make some kind of decision. With Marrero and Mookie, I just can't imagine Bogaerts' really being our starting shortstop for the next couple years. He's 3B, and if that fails, LF. Count me as one of the people who has no faith in WMB to be anything more than a platoon bat with decent defense at the corners. Agreed. Also, count me as one of the people who has no faith in Bogie as a SS. Give him a shot at 3rd as long as you can, hope he improves, but if not then yes LF.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 11, 2014 15:31:25 GMT -5
I think pretty much everything is being held up by what they actually decide on with Xander and to a lesser extent, WMB. They can't really put Mookie anywhere but the outfield until they make some kind of decision. With Marrero and Mookie, I just can't imagine Bogaerts' really being our starting shortstop for the next couple years. He's 3B, and if that fails, LF. Count me as one of the people who has no faith in WMB to be anything more than a platoon bat with decent defense at the corners. All I'm saying is that a decision needs to be made. No more Drew signings and bouncing everyone all over the field. Despite it looking like it's working out at times, it's not. And it definitely can't be the plan to bounce everyone around next season. I think of Xander differently. If they think he can play SS well enough, they'll keep him there and let others fall into place or leave. It says something to me, that Mookie hasn't played an inning of SS this year that I'm aware of. It says that they probably don't think of him as a SS.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 11, 2014 19:50:50 GMT -5
With Marrero and Mookie, I just can't imagine Bogaerts' really being our starting shortstop for the next couple years. He's 3B, and if that fails, LF. Count me as one of the people who has no faith in WMB to be anything more than a platoon bat with decent defense at the corners. All I'm saying is that a decision needs to be made. No more Drew signings and bouncing everyone all over the field. Despite it looking like it's working out at times, it's not. And it definitely can't be the plan to bounce everyone around next season. I think of Xander differently. If they think he can play SS well enough, they'll keep him there and let others fall into place or leave. It says something to me, that Mookie hasn't played an inning of SS this year that I'm aware of. It says that they probably don't think of him as a SS. Since they moved him to third he has not played a single inning at SS, despite Drew getting plenty of days off. A decision HAS been made. He is a third baseman.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 11, 2014 20:34:09 GMT -5
I think if we are going to keep betts in boston, then he needs to play.
It drives me nuts when he sits.
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Post by cologneredsox on Jul 19, 2014 13:38:49 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 19, 2014 14:14:04 GMT -5
What a team at Pawtucket. Infield of; Shaw, Mookie, Marrero and Cecchini. WMB is still there. Will have Hassan and Brentz in the OF. Damn near MLB ready rotation of; Workman, Webster, Ranaudo and Wright. Henry O and Swihart about ready to roll. They are in Scranton next weekend. Gonna have to make it to at least one of the games.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 30, 2014 7:34:16 GMT -5
Look, I love me some Mookie, of course, but it's like there's this collective media amnesia over Bogaerts last year. Folks like Tomase at the Globe are saying that Mookie's start this year might make him the best Sox prospect (loosely defined as "young player" since he includes JBJ and Bogaerts in it). He doesn't remember Bogaerts in the World Series last year? I think there's a strong case for Mookie being part of the Sox next year (and I think he definitely could be a star long-term), but let's not kid ourselves ... a good start to a major league career in the latter parts of a season ain't proof he's going to light it up next year.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,410
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Post by radiohix on Aug 30, 2014 7:42:08 GMT -5
The difference between Mookie and Xander is that Mookie's makes much more contact and has a track record of better approach in the minors.
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Post by zil on Aug 30, 2014 8:21:37 GMT -5
Mookie's just one of those guys with freakish pitch recognition, which he combines with a short swing and plenty of bat speed to post a swinging strike percentage of 4%.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 30, 2014 8:24:47 GMT -5
Look, I love me some Mookie, of course, but it's like there's this collective media amnesia over Bogaerts last year. Folks like Tomase at the Globe are saying that Mookie's start this year might make him the best Sox prospect (loosely defined as "young player" since he includes JBJ and Bogaerts in it). He doesn't remember Bogaerts in the World Series last year? I think there's a strong case for Mookie being part of the Sox next year (and I think he definitely could be a star long-term), but let's not kid ourselves ... a good start to a major league career in the latter parts of a season ain't proof he's going to light it up next year.No, but there's a danger to overreacting to the last thing that happened as well. Xander and JBJ's struggles also don't prove that Mookie won't be a productive player next year.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2014 9:20:05 GMT -5
The package of skills is certainly extremely enticing. The combination of elite contact ability, plate discipline, and some ability to impact the ball is a rare combination, especially since he also possesses rare speed and athleticism.
But I, like brianthetaoist, would pump the breaks a little. Expecting star-level production in his age-22, first full season in the majors may be a little too much. In particular, I think there's a tradeoff between contact and power that most hitters have to make at the major league level. Even with his considerable physical skills (hand-eye coordination, pitch recognition, bat speed, short swing, etc.), major league pitchers have the kind of stuff to force him to choose between a shorter swing (and thus more contact but hitting the ball less hard) and a harder swing (more power but more swing-and-miss). So far, he's made a ton of contact (the aforementioned 4% swinging strike rate), but a lot of it has been bad contact (a high IFFB%, for instance). His strikeout rate has also ticked up due to an increase in strikeouts looking, which is also to be expected. Pitchers will adjust, and he'll adjust back, but the point is that he's unlikely to reach anywhere close to his ceiling in year one.
The other question is about his defensive position. Even if he's a productive player (read: above replacement-level, maybe somewhere around a league-average guy), is he one of the three best outfielders on the current roster? There's a good chance that Cespedes, Castillo, and Craig/Nava will all outproduce him, and Victorino is still in the picture somewhere. I'm also still hesitant to think about him as a left-side-of-the-infield guy, considering his lack of experience there and the front office's apparent unwillingness to try him there.
Despite that somewhat pessimistic take, I'm not trading Betts for anything but a truly elite return package. If he doesn't lose prospect eligibility, he should be a top 10 position player prospect, and guys almost always provide a ridiculous amount of value. I'd happily trade, say, Cespedes to create room for Betts (who would play RF in this scenario).
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Post by p23w on Aug 30, 2014 9:43:03 GMT -5
Mookie has "Soleresque" bat speed. Haven't seen that since Nomar in a Red Sox prospect. AND, the kid can play some D. Whether or not you choose to rank him ahead of Xander is akin to the debate of ranking Kalish over Reddick. Just enjoy the results and stay immune to the hype. (you know, the JBJ, WM, Lavarnway, stuff). I'm thinking 2015 will be a better season than the current one, but not so much that the RS will contend, Mature and improve. This observation applies to both the position players and the pitching staff. Of coures BC could change that prognostication with one trade, but since I am an advocate of home grown talent rising to the top, I hope he can resist the pressure to pull the trigger. I'd really like to see another championship fielded by a home grown team.
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Post by 11mikem on Aug 30, 2014 9:47:11 GMT -5
The difference between the Patriots and the Red Sox is that this discussion of whether to shift Mookie to a position he's not really suited for, or trading him, would never occur. Belichick would trade Pedroia, a star with declining skills, get something for him while he still had value, and put the youngster (Mookie) in the lineup at second base for the next 10 years. If the management and the fans look at what is best for the team, this seems an obvious answer. Twisting yourself into a pretzel to not face the obvious and then weakening the team by keeping an older player with only a few good years left and giving his replacement to someone else makes no sense. Mookie CAN play other positions, but probably not as well as second base. We've loaded up on outfielders. Sticking Mookie there, preventing one of them from seizing the job, seems silly and totally counterproductive.
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Post by ctfisher on Aug 30, 2014 10:25:27 GMT -5
The difference between the Patriots and the Red Sox is that this discussion of whether to shift Mookie to a position he's not really suited for, or trading him, would never occur. Belichick would trade Pedroia, a star with declining skills, get something for him while he still had value, and put the youngster (Mookie) in the lineup at second base for the next 10 years. If the management and the fans look at what is best for the team, this seems an obvious answer. Twisting yourself into a pretzel to not face the obvious and then weakening the team by keeping an older player with only a few good years left and giving his replacement to someone else makes no sense. Mookie CAN play other positions, but probably not as well as second base. We've loaded up on outfielders. Sticking Mookie there, preventing one of them from seizing the job, seems silly and totally counterproductive. Well if you want to compare it to the pats, that would be like saying if Brady gets hurt this year/declines, garropolo gets snaps and play well, we should trade brady. Most fans would hate it, and both of them signed extremely team friendly deals to help them contend in the future recently. I think the excess outfield depth works itself out in a trade this offseason- as the roster presently stands, theres a ton of overcrowding in the outfield. Castillo, Cespedes, Craig and Victorino are all making starters money, and there's still Nava, Bradley (who I don't think we should be writing off yet- if he can be just a mediocre hitter instead of a god-awful one he's probably a pretty valuable player) and mookie, assuming he doesn't change positions. These guys won't all be on the roster come next year- there's just not space, even with Craig, Nava and Mookie having some positional flexibility
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 30, 2014 11:05:15 GMT -5
I think Mookie can do what Holt is doing now. I believe he can do all three outfield positions, He broke in as a SS, then 2b, CF. The only thing left if he has arm strength for 3b. I feel he can be more effective as a lead off man also with his speed. We shouldn't be in a rush to move positional players this offseason. I am okay with a couple of pitchers moving.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 30, 2014 11:05:57 GMT -5
The other question is about his defensive position. Even if he's a productive player (read: above replacement-level, maybe somewhere around a league-average guy), is he one of the three best outfielders on the current roster? There's a good chance that Cespedes, Castillo, and Craig/Nava will all outproduce him, and Victorino is still in the picture somewhere. I'm also still hesitant to think about him as a left-side-of-the-infield guy, considering his lack of experience there and the front office's apparent unwillingness to try him there. Despite that somewhat pessimistic take, I'm not trading Betts for anything but a truly elite return package. If he doesn't lose prospect eligibility, he should be a top 10 position player prospect, and guys almost always provide a ridiculous amount of value. I'd happily trade, say, Cespedes to create room for Betts (who would play RF in this scenario). It depends on the timeline, though. That current heap of Red Sox outfielders features an awful lot of players who are on the wrong side of 30 and/or not under contract long term. If the Red Sox are trying to win in 2015 without any regard for the medium and long-term future of the team, Betts probably doesn't make the cut. With the exception of Ortiz's presence on the roster however, I don't see the need for a kamikaze run next year, and under the assumption that the next three to five years matter it's really hard to justify a trade of Betts. Like you say, elite young position players tend to return a massive amount of value and it's rare for teams to get those guys by any means other than developing them. The standard "any player is tradable in the right deal" disclaimer applies, but I think that if the long term matters at all, Betts should not be traded in almost any realistic deal.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 30, 2014 12:56:41 GMT -5
Look, I love me some Mookie, of course, but it's like there's this collective media amnesia over Bogaerts last year. Folks like Tomase at the Globe are saying that Mookie's start this year might make him the best Sox prospect (loosely defined as "young player" since he includes JBJ and Bogaerts in it). He doesn't remember Bogaerts in the World Series last year? I think there's a strong case for Mookie being part of the Sox next year (and I think he definitely could be a star long-term), but let's not kid ourselves ... a good start to a major league career in the latter parts of a season ain't proof he's going to light it up next year.No, but there's a danger to overreacting to the last thing that happened as well. Xander and JBJ's struggles also don't prove that Mookie won't be a productive player next year. Sure. I'm not making a prediction that he'll struggle as badly as either of those guys ... I'm just pointing out that what we've seen right now is no guarantee of a productive year next year or that he's a better "prospect" than Bogaerts. We just don't know what will happen next year with Mookie, but it's more likely than not that he'll struggle to some unknowable degree. Pitchers found something to exploit in Bogaerts, and we don't know what they'll find to exploit in Mookie yet or how he'll adjust. For next year, Mookie may or may not be a regular player, but we should be realistic about him. And I don't think we need to worry ourselves overmuch about him being "crowded out." It's so hard to speculate on next year's roster because the Sox may make some significant moves over the offseason, but I have a hard time seeing an OF of Cespedes, Castillo, and Craig working out since I don't think there's a Fenway RFer in that mix. And I don't think a move to 3rd is out of the question for Betts ... there are just a lot of ways to plug him in. But, and this is possibly my main point, I'm sure the Sox will be very wary of depending on him as an offensive contributor with so many other question marks and the experience with Bogaerts this year (JBJ is less relevant to me because I think the Sox suspected that he might struggle to hit). All of that said, I think Betts and Bogaerts are two terrific prospects that could be cornerstones of a dynamic Red Sox team for years, and I think Mookie's earned being placed up with Bogaerts at that level. I wouldn't trade either one of them unless the return was outlandish, the sort of trade that doesn't happen very much. Their long term value seems incredibly high to me.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 30, 2014 13:17:48 GMT -5
In the Mookie speculation there are a couple things I don't get. One is I don't see Marrero as even much of a consideration. He is not going to keep the Mookster out of the lineup, or even move his position IMO. You guys are dreaming. Marrero hype is what is unrealistic, not Mookie hype.
How many times do we need to watch that GS from yesterday to see that this guy is not going to be susceptible to inside strikes. He got his hands inside of that ball so fast it eliminates that consideration. That was maybe borderline strike at best and he snapped that ball over the fence in record time.
Opposing pitchers are going to start pitching Mookie like they do Middlebrooks. He is going to see a steady diet of outside fastballs, low on the corner, and sliders off the plate. Can he take the ball to RF yet? We will see just how good he is at that going forward, and it may be his achilles heel for a while. But he is also going to have the pitch recognition to get on base as well as anyone on this team. Yeah, that's right. The best OBP on this team almost immediately.
One thing I would hope that Cherington would consider though is for Mookie to get some time at 3rd. He should have fantastic range there and enough of an arm to be successful. And it is an easier position to learn than SS. I don't think I would want to throw him in at SS next Spring. But I would strongly consider him at 3rd.
Mookie's gotta play.
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