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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by suttree on Aug 30, 2014 13:30:49 GMT -5
Fun fact: Mookie is leading Portland in SB, tied for the lead at Pawtucket (assuming Cecchini doesn't steal a bag over the last 3 games), and has the potential to also be the leader for the Red Sox if he gets consistent playing time for the rest of the year.
Right now Holt has the team lead of 10, Mookie has 4. If Mookie steals 8 or 9 bags in September he will probably pass or tie Holt. That's pretty cool, but it's also depressing to think nobody on the Sox will steal 20 bags this year.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2014 13:41:06 GMT -5
There's a thread in the trade proposal subforum about what it would take for you to consider moving Betts, which is where that discussion should go if you feel like mentioning specific names (FWIW, my answer to that question is posted here).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2014 14:03:07 GMT -5
Mookie had 1 BB and 5 SO in his first stint, when he hit .235 / .278 / .382 (37 PA). In his second stint, he had 0 of both, going 2/7. In the first 5 games of this stint, he had 3 BB and 3 SO, but only hit .188 / .316 / .250 (19 PA). In the subsequent 6 games, he has 5 BB and 3 SO, while hitting .318 / .444 / .636 (27 PA).
Of course, there's random variation in the BB vs. SO numbers, and considerably more in the slash lines, but nevertheless it's very good to see the former improving and the latter following along, both dramatically.
In the meantime, giving him a shot at 3B for 2015 already seemed like a no-brainer even before they signed Castillo. Now, it's whatever comes after no-brainer.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2014 14:18:47 GMT -5
But he is also going to have the pitch recognition to get on base as well as anyone on this team. Yeah, that's right. The best OBP on this team almost immediately. I think this is a tad aggressive. Ortiz has a .362 OBP (and Steamer/ZiPS hybrid projects .374) while Napoli has a .375 OBP (and Steamer/ZipS hybrid projection of .355), and I'd be hard-pressed to say that Betts will overtake them next season. Even projecting him to hit for a high average, I have my doubts about whether Betts will be much better than a .350 OBP or so. There just aren't a lot of non-power-hitters who can crack an elite OBP, largely because pitchers aren't afraid to throw strikes to guys with little power (and unlike the minors (especially the low minors), major league pitchers are just able to throw more pitches in the zone). Of the 33 qualified hitters with a .360+ OBP since 2012, only eight have a sub-.160 ISO (from low to high: Ruiz, Butler, Nava, Jay, Carpenter, Fowler, Choo, Mauer), which is roughly the high end of much power I project Betts to hit for in the majors in his early 20s. Now, granted, Betts has put up higher ISOs in the minors and is not lacking in bat speed, but I'm not convinced that will last in the majors. He's just kind of a small dude, and he's never been a huge home run guy (relying instead on a ton of doubles and some triples). I can buy average or even slightly above-average power (especially since he'll continue to leg out cheap doubles), but not the kind of plus power it usually takes to put up elite OBPs. Like you suggested, I see pitchers adjusting by throwing him fastballs on the outside of the zone and daring him to beat them by driving the ball the other way. If he can't do so consistently enough (which I think will be the case, at least in his first few years), he'll be a Pedroia-esque high contact, moderate patience, moderate power guy. Of course, something like .280/.350/.420 is still hugely valuable in this offensive environment and would, along with his plus baserunning, make a near-ideal leadoff candidate.
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Post by izzy on Aug 30, 2014 14:55:55 GMT -5
It's interesting going back and reading the early posts about Mookie. He was seen as the 50th prospect on the Red Sox then. Now, a 50th best prospect rating in baseball would be an insult.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 30, 2014 15:04:16 GMT -5
I'd take .280/.350/.420 in a heartbeat but I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Mookie top it within a year or 2 even. He has more pop than Ellsbury had at this stage and better pitch recognition. Agreed that it is much easier to put up big OBP numbers with a high ISO but Mookie has shown that he can do significant damage with the bat and has put up tremendous OBP numbers so far. Mookie certainly has solid doubles and triples pop. Pedroia has been mainly a doubles guy and he has put up great OBP numbers. Mookie adds more of a triples and HR dimension possibly. Pedroia had a total of 21 HR in minor league baseball. Mookie had 11 last year alone and is up to 14 overall so far this year ( counting his 3 in mlb).
It's a huge leap to project him as a Pedroia level performer but there is no question his minor league numbers are better ....right!
It's crazy to say "Mookie will be better than Pedroia", and no one is saying that but there is also no question also that so far he has put up better numbers than Pedroia did at the same age in the minors. Mookie is actually younger now than Pedroia was when he came up. And I see nothing about Mookie which would indicate a less capable performer than Pedroia.
It is safe to project conservatively. My point being that the data indicates better, and why not just come out and say it?
I have zero disagreement with your position though jmei. It is clearly optimistic to expect Mookie to perform at that level ever, let alone soon. Put me down in the extremely optimistic column then. I see no weaknesses in that swing, that approach, that attitude, that work ethic. The guy is a realistic perfectionist. A guy who will not get too down with a slump but also will work his tail off to be the best.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 30, 2014 15:06:36 GMT -5
He should be a top 5 prospect. A strong case could be made that he is a top 2 prospect already. I know I'm in the minority but I rank them Kris Bryant #1 and Mookie #2.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 30, 2014 15:51:00 GMT -5
Interesting points in comparing him to Dustin. I will buy into high contact and moderate power. But I think with as short as his swing is and with his speed he will be better than a .280 hitter. I think he is a .300 hitter. At the plate he reminds me of McCutchen they both have really quick bats.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2014 21:19:51 GMT -5
He isn't as strong as mccutchen at all though
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Post by zil on Aug 31, 2014 8:27:54 GMT -5
I can't buy the argument that Betts can't post a super high obp without being a big power threat. His contact ability, pitch recognition, and discipline are too good not to give him a shot at the .370s or beyond.
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2014 8:56:37 GMT -5
I like the Pedroia comp way better for him than for Coyle (which people tried to make early on). Namely high contact/low K rates, and fast enough bat he can gear up for some power now and then. I'd expect his walk rate and OBP to drop as get he gets challenged at MLB, but really like him as a player.
But as I compare him to a guy who won ROY followed by the MVP, keep in mind Pedroia had over 1,000 PAs at AA/AAA. Two full seasons at AA/AAA plus 30 games in 2006 with the big club. Betts has had less than 500. I don't know if he can adjust at the MLB level, or would be better served hitting AAA pitching for a while but I'm gunshy after JBJ (which I knew would happen) and Xander (which I still am surprised by).
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Post by jmei on Aug 31, 2014 9:04:02 GMT -5
I can't buy the argument that Betts can't post a super high obp without being a big power threat. His contact ability, pitch recognition, and discipline are too good not to give him a shot at the .370s or beyond. The idea is that if you don't hit for a lot of power, major league pitchers will just throw you enough strikes such that it's difficult to post the kind of walk rates necessary to sustain a .370+ OBP. In the minor leagues, where pitchers have worse control and just can't throw strikes consistently, that's less of an issue. I'm not saying it's impossible to post great OBPs as a non-power threat, just that it's more difficult. Guys like Tony Gwynn, or, more recently, Luis Castillo and Chone Figgins managed to do with a similar package of contact, discipline, and speed. But those guys are the exception, not the rule.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2014 9:16:35 GMT -5
He isn't as strong as mccutchen at all though He's only 21. Most guys his age are in High A ball or getting a taste at AA. Give him 3 years and 10 lbs of solid muscle between the knees and ribs and he'll be driving it high and long 25 or so times a year.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 31, 2014 11:35:29 GMT -5
He isn't as strong as mccutchen at all though He's only 21. Most guys his age are in High A ball or getting a taste at AA. Give him 3 years and 10 lbs of solid muscle between the knees and ribs and he'll be driving it high and long 25 or so times a year. He's not Vinicio but he's not McCutchen either. I don't think Mookie has the frame to add too much muscle. He is wiry like Nomar and appears to be small boned. His power IMO comes from his bat speed and rotation while appearing to stay centered.
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Post by rsoxman07 on Aug 31, 2014 13:30:57 GMT -5
He should be a top 5 prospect. A strong case could be made that he is a top 2 prospect already. I know I'm in the minority but I rank them Kris Bryant #1 and Mookie #2. I agree....Mookie gets little prospect love because of his perceived "lack of power"...I would put him in the top 5 prospects as well behind Bryant and Gallo.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2014 13:32:02 GMT -5
He's not Vinicio but he's not McCutchen either. I don't think Mookie has the frame to add too much muscle. He is wiry like Nomar and appears to be small boned. His power IMO comes from his bat speed and rotation while appearing to stay centered. Soooo....would he put-up 30HR at 23? Or as a rookie? I'd be happy if he capped out at 35... He's 3 inches shorter than Nomar - but if he could bulk up like Nomar then the leadoff hitter many of us are hoping for may quickly turn into a #3 hitter....probably getting a bit ahead of ourselves with these comparisons though.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2014 15:43:17 GMT -5
It was fairly obvious what happened with Nomar.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 31, 2014 15:51:20 GMT -5
Really? Because, judging from that image at least, if Nomar did PEDs, they were just repackaged Twinkies.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 31, 2014 17:14:07 GMT -5
It was fairly obvious what happened with Nomar. Do enlighten me.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 31, 2014 17:29:19 GMT -5
Those who accept the PED era can't prove anything. I'm one of those. Those who don't even acknowledge the era won't change. I think both sides should agree to a positive test or admission as proof and let everything else go. Moving on to Mid-East peace now.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 31, 2014 17:34:44 GMT -5
He's not Vinicio but he's not McCutchen either. I don't think Mookie has the frame to add too much muscle. He is wiry like Nomar and appears to be small boned. His power IMO comes from his bat speed and rotation while appearing to stay centered. Soooo....would he put-up 30HR at 23? Or as a rookie? I'd be happy if he capped out at 35... He's 3 inches shorter than Nomar - but if he could bulk up like Nomar then the leadoff hitter many of us are hoping for may quickly turn into a #3 hitter....probably getting a bit ahead of ourselves with these comparisons though. My bad. I should have said like Nomar was initially. I stood next to Nomar both following his being drafted when he played for the Sarasox and when he came back to rehab later with the same team. To me he was then lean, sinewy and tight-muscled....like a spring. The picture in Sports Illustrated did not bear much resemblance to the Nomar I saw. So unless Mookie can somehow legally transform himself, I stand by my earlier statement.
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Post by jmei on Aug 31, 2014 18:01:24 GMT -5
Yeah, let's move on.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 31, 2014 18:13:24 GMT -5
He isn't as strong as mccutchen at all though No he is not as big physically and I don't expect 30 home runs from him either. But I think teens HR are not out of the question even if he stays the size he is now. He won't be hitting Oppo homers unless he wraps one around the pole. But he looks to have plenty of pull power and gap power the other way.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2014 10:52:57 GMT -5
Cafardo once again mentions 3B as a destination for Betts. And having him try 3B is an incredibly obvious thing to do. So why haven't they done it?
I think there's a credible answer that makes excellent sense. And that's that they simply decided that they were not going to ask him to learn two entirely new positions (plus one somewhat new one in RF) in the same year while debuting at three different levels in pro ball, including MLB.
When you think about that, it does make sense. How much novelty can one guy stand in one season, even the fabulous Mookie? Three new leagues, three new positions, two of them completely different: anyone's head would explode.
1) Given that Holt has been a much better defensive OF than 3B, he really does project much better as a super-utility guy than as next year's 3B.
2) It would make little sense to acquire a 3B -- who might prove to not be as good as Mookie.
3) You can teach Mookie 3B starting in ST, and start him at Pawtucket if needs more work, while using Holt as a placeholder.
Furthermore, the extra AAA PA that he would get in that scenario could not hurt and might well help. The theory being that what Bogaerts missed by not getting more PA at AAA was the (largely mental) experience of working his way out of a deep slump in AAA rather than at MLB, with the added difficulty and, especially, pressure to perform.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 1, 2014 12:09:47 GMT -5
Cafardo once again mentions 3B as a destination for Betts. And having him try 3B is an incredibly obvious thing to do. So why haven't they done it? I think there's a credible answer that makes excellent sense. And that's that they simply decided that they were not going to ask him to learn two entirely new positions (plus one somewhat new one in RF) in the same year while debuting at three different levels in pro ball, including MLB. When you think about that, it does make sense. How much novelty can one guy stand in one season, even the fabulous Mookie? Three new leagues, three new positions, two of them completely different: anyone's head would explode. 1) Given that Holt has been a much better defensive OF than 3B, he really does project much better as a super-utility guy than as next year's 3B. 2) It would make little sense to acquire a 3B -- who might prove to not be as good as Mookie. 3) You can teach Mookie 3B starting in ST, and start him at Pawtucket if needs more work, while using Holt as a placeholder. Furthermore, the extra AAA PA that he would get in that scenario could not hurt and might well help. The theory being that what Bogaerts missed by not getting more PA at AAA was the (largely mental) experience of working his way out of a deep slump in AAA rather than at MLB, with the added difficulty and, especially, pressure to perform.
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