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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 4, 2014 16:29:11 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 4, 2014 16:55:59 GMT -5
Probably the hardest spot to hit consistently and pitching high is dangerous.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 4, 2014 17:17:08 GMT -5
Hard to "Middlebrooks" a guy who makes as much contact as Mookie does. His spray chart indicates that while his power is to the pull side, he's certainly not shying away from going with the outside pitch and shooting it the other way. That shows me that Mookie is just an impressively smart hitter, especially for his age. He has a good feel for when it's time to turn on and smack an inside pitch, but doesn't get pull happy or greedy for the long ball. He walks a lot, and obviously his contact rate is superb. For a guy his size making as much contact as he does, he really racks up the XBHs too. He's just a stud….. Couldn't an even more confident version of this analysis have been made of Xander at the end of May? Or even last October? Long-term of course things looks great, but if Xander can hit as he has for three months, Mookie in 2015 could wind up anywhere on the zero to hero spectrum. No question. And several years ago we were all agog over Middlebrooks....'a .280 hitter with 30 bombs'....and they were bombs then. X had impeccable strike-zone judgment last year...less so now. But it looks like X is making adjustments after a rough 'sink or swim' year. I echo Nomar's comments on Mookie. Pitchers will adjust but Mookie appears to have less inherent vulnerability and is 'centered'....in that he hits it where pitched, doesn't lunge and is so damned quick to the ball. It is hard to believe his power given the size factor. Imagine if he were 6' 2" and 195lbs. ?! And look how he is adapting to the OF! I suspect that, after hitting no home runs a couple of years ago, he will be a .300, 25 SB, 15-20 guy for many years. If so, this is a guy you find a position for not someone you trade
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 4, 2014 17:24:16 GMT -5
Even in 2012 Middlebrooks had plenty of question marks. I don't think most people expected him to fall off the map the way he has so quickly, but I don't believe he was ever at the level Mookie is at now in terms of value and expectations.
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 4, 2014 18:08:56 GMT -5
Middlebrooks has always been a high-K kind of guy and it's never surprising when they fail. How many guys are successful while posting minor league strikeout rates in the 25-30% range with BB-rates in the 5-7 range?
Guys with Betts' athleticism (33 SB in 100 games this year) and stat profile (more walks than strikeouts, .180-.210 isolated power) don't generally fail at the MLB level.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2014 18:30:37 GMT -5
Skill set-wise, a rough comp for me here is Craig Biggio. Mookie should be a guy who gets on base at a good clip and mixes in moderate power and solid base stealing ability while playing premium OF defense (assuming he stays in the OF).
Reality check: I'm not predicting that Mookie is going to have a HOF career like Biggio, just saying that the package bears some resemblance. I don't see Mookie stealing 50 bases with only 8 CS in a season, as Biggio did in 1998, or putting up a .415 OB, as Biggio did in 1997.(Biggio had three other seasons > .400.)
Just by coincidence, Biggio also moved to CF from 2B.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2014 18:43:02 GMT -5
Skill set-wise, a rough comp for me here is Craig Biggio. Mookie should be a guy who gets on base at a good clip and mixes in moderate power and solid base stealing ability while playing premium OF defense (assuming he stays in the OF). Reality check: I'm not predicting that Mookie is going to have a HOF career like Biggio, just saying that the package bears some resemblance. I don't see Mookie stealing 50 bases with only 8 CS in a season, as Biggio did in 1998, or putting up a .415 OB, as Biggio did in 1997.(Biggio had three other seasons > .400.) Just by coincidence, Biggio also moved to CF from 2B. Biggio moved from Catcher to OF to 2b to OF
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 4, 2014 18:46:20 GMT -5
Skill set-wise, a rough comp for me here is Craig Biggio. Mookie should be a guy who gets on base at a good clip and mixes in moderate power and solid base stealing ability while playing premium OF defense (assuming he stays in the OF). Reality check: I'm not predicting that Mookie is going to have a HOF career like Biggio, just saying that the package bears some resemblance. I don't see Mookie stealing 50 bases with only 8 CS in a season, as Biggio did in 1998, or putting up a .415 OB, as Biggio did in 1997.(Biggio had three other seasons > .400.) Just by coincidence, Biggio also moved to CF from 2B. Biggio was a catcher when he first came up.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 4, 2014 18:55:09 GMT -5
He also played in the highest offensive era in history. Although he did have four seasons with a wRC+ over 140.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 4, 2014 20:11:52 GMT -5
I don't understand why other teams throw Mookie anything inside. He cleans out pitches on the inside corner of the plate about as well as anyone in baseball. They should be Middlebrooksing him with low and outside pitches all the freaking time. I can't see Mookie as a top 10 value in baseball yet, as he is still relatively unproven but I'm with the Klost guy overall. He's probably a 5 win player. jmei mentioned that, either in this thread or another. Teams will start pitching him outside soon. It will cut down on the hr's, but lots of 2b's and 3b's to be had for him in right and right center at fenway.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 4, 2014 20:13:58 GMT -5
I don't understand why other teams throw Mookie anything inside. He cleans out pitches on the inside corner of the plate about as well as anyone in baseball. They should be Middlebrooksing him with low and outside pitches all the freaking time. I can't see Mookie as a top 10 value in baseball yet, as he is still relatively unproven but I'm with the Klost guy overall. He's probably a 5 win player. jmei mentioned that, either in this thread or another. Teams will start pitching him outside soon. It will cut down on the hr's, but lots of 2b's and 3b's to be had for him in right and right center at fenway. Contact hitting prospects are the fastest to adjust. I agree that he'll just find gaps instead and don't worry about his production long term if pitchers pitch him outside.
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Post by ethanbein on Sept 4, 2014 20:18:21 GMT -5
This heat map just shows what he's been pitched so far. This one shows that he's been crushing inside pitches.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,836
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2014 20:22:32 GMT -5
Skill set-wise, a rough comp for me here is Craig Biggio. Mookie should be a guy who gets on base at a good clip and mixes in moderate power and solid base stealing ability while playing premium OF defense (assuming he stays in the OF). Reality check: I'm not predicting that Mookie is going to have a HOF career like Biggio, just saying that the package bears some resemblance. I don't see Mookie stealing 50 bases with only 8 CS in a season, as Biggio did in 1998, or putting up a .415 OB, as Biggio did in 1997.(Biggio had three other seasons > .400.) Just by coincidence, Biggio also moved to CF from 2B. Biggio was a catcher when he first came up. Yeah, I was aware he was a catcher when he came up and went from 2B to OF later. Even I couldn't come up with a Mookie similarity to Biggio's experience as a C!
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2014 20:39:25 GMT -5
Biggio was a catcher when he first came up. Yeah, I was aware he was a catcher when he came up and went from 2B to OF later. Even I couldn't come up with a Mookie similarity to Biggio's experience as a C! Biggio is a cross between Mookie and Swihart!
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 4, 2014 21:03:12 GMT -5
Xander is still much more valuable than Mookie
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 4, 2014 21:14:07 GMT -5
Ethan, your heat map confirms what my eyes have been telling me. He has hit all his HR so far on inside pitches as far as I can tell. It is interesting that his BA is pretty strong on outside pitches so far though.
Mark me down as Mookie is more valuable than Xander, although I do think Xander has been very unlucky this year and I do think he will be a stud. I think Mookie is going to hit for a much higher average though and be better defensively. Overall, I'll take Mookie's career but Xander should eclipse him some years just from sheer power potential. That's my guess anyway.
Regarding Middlebrooks, I always rated him low until the very end in his minor league days when the hype was near deafening. I did like his rookie year though, as he seemed to make a lot more contact that year.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2014 7:51:39 GMT -5
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 5, 2014 9:36:24 GMT -5
Xander is still much more valuable than Mookie If he Hits! Because that is where his value is. If he doesn't hit he isn't as valuable as JBJ or Vasquez. They are at least plus defensive players.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 5, 2014 9:43:03 GMT -5
That's not good news for Craig and Victorino. Neither appears to have a position. Not much trade value either. I'm assuming an OF of Cespedes-Mookie-castillo.
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danr
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Post by danr on Sept 5, 2014 13:16:48 GMT -5
Am I the only one who isn't sold on Castillo yet? I know the Sox know about a million times more than I do about him. It just that I have this little tick about him that keeps bothering me. It probably would go away if he shows something soon.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 6, 2014 8:41:39 GMT -5
When Cherington says "We haven't had that discussion," he either means with Mookie, or he's lying. Obviously they've had that discussion in Baseball Ops, even if to reject it. Which, you know, he could have said if that's what they'd done. It doesn't seem possible that the team is so stupid that they wouldn't even try Mookie at 3B, given that they have two or three centerfielders and no third baseman for next year, and that acquiring a 3B would essentially block Cecchini and preclude comebacks by Bradley, Victorino, or Craig (the combined best-case outcome of those four candidates probably matching your new 3B at zero cost ... I mean, wasn't that the point of acquiring all this depth?), and would also force either Victorino, Craig, or Nava off the roster entirely. It would certainly seem odd that the decision to commit to Mookie as an OF, itself hard to justify, would then be followed by ... the acquisition of three more outfielders, all of whom also hit RH. Note that just last week, Cherington's line was simply that Mookie at 3B wouldn't happen until ST, if it ever did, which was a different sort of hedge. So, either I'm correct in thinking that this is continued spin because they want Mookie to concentrate on the OF for the rest of the year and not be distracted about the possibility of learning yet anther position ... or I won't have to bother watching the Sox next year because I wasn't able to bear how stupidly they'd played the off-season. Given how busy I am, that's a win-win for me.
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Post by jmei on Sept 6, 2014 10:43:16 GMT -5
It would certainly seem odd that the decision to commit to Mookie as an OF, itself hard to justify, would then be followed by ... the acquisition of three more outfielders, all of whom also hit RH. Not really-- if they ascribe to the Danny Ainge school of asset collection (acquire undervalued assets first, figure out how they fit later, including moving assets at positions of excess for assets at positions of need), it makes perfect sense. It certainly gives them lots of flexibility this offseason. Perhaps more importantly, I think the front office's line of thinking (one with which I agree) is that Betts in the outfield makes better use of his strengths (first step, speed/athleticism) and better minimizes his weaknesses (arm strength and/or accuracy) than third base does. If third base and center field are equal on the defense spectrum, I certainly think he's far more likely to be a better CF defender than a 3B defender. Even in RF, I think it's possible (perhaps even likely) that he's ten runs better defensively as compared to 3B, especially once you take into account Fenway's dimensions and their oft-repeated mantra that they want two CF-quality defenders out there.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Sept 6, 2014 10:58:46 GMT -5
And completely confirmed the possibility of time at second. "“We haven’t had that discussion. I think, obviously, he signs as a shortstop, moves to second base, got very comfortable there, and then moved to the outfield this year. We have a lot of confidence in his ability to play second and the outfield, and obviously we think he’s going to be a really good defensive player and a good baserunner,” said Cherington. “We haven’t discussed the left side of the infield yet. I don’t expect to. I guess I can’t completely rule it out. I don’t expect to. We’ll likely focus on either one of the outfield spots or second base, and obviously on this team, second base is hopefully locked up .”
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Sept 6, 2014 11:01:41 GMT -5
"Hopefully locked up" when speaking of second is interesting phrasing.
I do think if they approached Pedrioa he would be all in on moving to third.
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Post by jmei on Sept 6, 2014 11:04:37 GMT -5
Also, I read "We haven't discussed the left side of the infield yet" as saying that they haven't discussed it with Mookie yet and don't expect to. They've obviously considered it internally.
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