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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 6, 2014 11:15:26 GMT -5
Pedroia is equally likely to be converted to closer as he is to third base.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 6, 2014 11:19:08 GMT -5
"Hopefully locked up" when speaking of second is interesting phrasing. I do think if they approached Pedrioa he would be all in on moving to third. Really? I thought it was pretty clear. It's hopefully locked up because it's locked up if Pedroia doesn't get injured
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,790
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Post by nomar on Sept 6, 2014 11:45:33 GMT -5
Skill set-wise, a rough comp for me here is Craig Biggio. Mookie should be a guy who gets on base at a good clip and mixes in moderate power and solid base stealing ability while playing premium OF defense (assuming he stays in the OF). Reality check: I'm not predicting that Mookie is going to have a HOF career like Biggio, just saying that the package bears some resemblance. I don't see Mookie stealing 50 bases with only 8 CS in a season, as Biggio did in 1998, or putting up a .415 OB, as Biggio did in 1997.(Biggio had three other seasons > .400.) Just by coincidence, Biggio also moved to CF from 2B. He could have considerably worse seasons that are just as valuable relative to today's level of offense. But projecting any spec to be a hall of famer is rough.
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Post by burythehammer on Sept 6, 2014 16:36:41 GMT -5
Xander is still much more valuable than Mookie If he Hits! Because that is where his value is. If he doesn't hit he isn't as valuable as JBJ or Vasquez. They are at least plus defensive players. He meant value as in "what is he worth right now, today, in a trade", not what they could be two years from now. Although the latter is the primary reason why Xander is more valuable.
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Post by jmei on Sept 9, 2014 11:51:57 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,285
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Post by radiohix on Sept 9, 2014 16:47:27 GMT -5
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 9, 2014 18:20:34 GMT -5
Not just, don't trade him. Don't give up on him as a 2B yet. I see where Pedroia may be done for the year. I hate to say this about an icon, but Dustin is not a large man and he has played the game SO hard in his years here. I am very suspicious that he may simply be destroying himself in the process of getting the absolute most he can out of himself. It is very possible that in 2 years or so he may be essentially washed up as a major league player, and a new everyday 2B will be needed. I would put Betts at 2B for the rest of the season if Pedroia can't go, if for no other reason than to check on the value of one's insurance policy.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,285
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Post by radiohix on Sept 9, 2014 18:46:05 GMT -5
I think defense is a different process: I'm pretty sure that the FO know what they have in Mookie as a 2nd Baseman and defense don't usually struggle going from a level to another.
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 9, 2014 19:02:09 GMT -5
Even with his solid numbers, it seems like Mookie has had some bad BABIP luck. .316 BABIP through 132 AB's FTR.
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Post by joshv02 on Sept 9, 2014 20:24:07 GMT -5
That's not excessively high. At all.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 9, 2014 20:31:08 GMT -5
That's not excessively high. At all. Or excessively low. (I misread it at first too.)
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Post by jmei on Sept 9, 2014 20:33:46 GMT -5
...it's not excessively low, either. Mookie put up great BABIPs in the minors (career .340), but most hitters see their BABIPs decline when they reach the majors due to a combination of better pitching and better defenses (and, more recently, because of defensive shifts).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 9, 2014 20:51:55 GMT -5
Mookie speed and contact rate would seem to help him in the BAPIP area. I think he has room for a little more luck also.
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Post by joshv02 on Sept 9, 2014 20:57:33 GMT -5
Why would his contact rate help his babip?
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Post by jmei on Sept 9, 2014 21:34:34 GMT -5
Mookie speed and contact rate would seem to help him in the BAPIP area. I think he has room for a little more luck also. I only nit-pick because this is like the third time this has come up: BA BIP.
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 9, 2014 21:46:21 GMT -5
I was more referencing the fact that he's been spraying line drives all over the place recently, many of which have been caught. But my bad, it seemed particularly low in relation to his batting average (and career minor league #'s, but I get the insignificance of that now).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 9, 2014 22:02:49 GMT -5
OK. Got it. It does seem likely that with all the guys with plus .300 BABIP, Mookie would seem to have some room for growth in all likelihood though. He has a level swing which generates solid contact and he can also generate some infield hits with his speed. For example, Ichiro is at least somewhat similar as a hitter and he still has a career BABIP of .344 and he's almost 41 years old now. Would you at least grant that guys with his profile are more likely to have a high BABIP?
So far he is on target with at least my expectations for him. An OBP of .359 and Oliver now has him as a projected 5 WAR player, exactly what some of us predicted a few weeks ago.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 10, 2014 4:55:18 GMT -5
...it's not excessively low, either. Mookie put up great BABIPs in the minors (career .340), but most hitters see their BABIPs decline when they reach the majors due to a combination of better pitching and better defenses (and, more recently, because of defensive shifts). It almost sounds like you think pitcher BABIP is a skill. And on a serious note, I can't see a shift hurting Mookie much.
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Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2014 6:17:42 GMT -5
OK. Got it. It does seem likely that with all the guys with plus .300 BABIP, Mookie would seem to have some room for growth in all likelihood though. He has a level swing which generates solid contact and he can also generate some infield hits with his speed. For example, Ichiro is at least somewhat similar as a hitter and he still has a career BABIP of .344 and he's almost 41 years old now. Would you at least grant that guys with his profile are more likely to have a high BABIP? So far he is on target with at least my expectations for him. An OBP of .359 and Oliver now has him as a projected 5 WAR player, exactly what some of us predicted a few weeks ago. Yes, Betts has the kind of skillset which is conducive to above-average BABIPs. But that doesn't mean he'll be a true-talent .340 BABIP hitter and that his current .320 mark is necessarily excessively low. For one thing, Ichiro has the fifth-highest BABIP in the league since 1980 (min. 5000 PAs), behind only Jeter, Mauer, Cabrera, and Boggs, and as one of the greatest pure hitters in baseball history, he's not a great comp for anyone. Moreover, plenty of players with that sort of skillset maintain above-average but not elite BABIPs. Think Jose Reyes' career .313 BABIP, Johnny Damon's .305 BABIP, Jacoby Ellsbury's career .323 BABIP, etc.
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Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2014 16:09:08 GMT -5
By the way, Farrell has just about dismissed the possibility of playing Mookie at 2B this year. This presumably also rules out the possibility of him getting any reps at 3B (or SS) this year as well. His logic:
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Post by ramireja on Sept 10, 2014 17:17:25 GMT -5
OK. Got it. It does seem likely that with all the guys with plus .300 BABIP, Mookie would seem to have some room for growth in all likelihood though. He has a level swing which generates solid contact and he can also generate some infield hits with his speed. For example, Ichiro is at least somewhat similar as a hitter and he still has a career BABIP of .344 and he's almost 41 years old now. Would you at least grant that guys with his profile are more likely to have a high BABIP? So far he is on target with at least my expectations for him. An OBP of .359 and Oliver now has him as a projected 5 WAR player, exactly what some of us predicted a few weeks ago. Yes, Betts has the kind of skillset which is conducive to above-average BABIPs. But that doesn't mean he'll be a true-talent .340 BABIP hitter and that his current .320 mark is necessarily excessively low. For one thing, Ichiro has the fifth-highest BABIP in the league since 1980 (min. 5000 PAs), behind only Jeter, Mauer, Cabrera, and Boggs, and as one of the greatest pure hitters in baseball history, he's not a great comp for anyone. Moreover, plenty of players with that sort of skillset maintain above-average but not elite BABIPs. Think Jose Reyes' career .313 BABIP, Johnny Damon's .305 BABIP, Jacoby Ellsbury's career .323 BABIP, etc. Looking at that BABIP list is really interesting, and to me, provides some evidence that BABIP does rely on skill set at least to a degree. I hate when analysts use the logic that an individual's BABIP should regress to some mean overall population. Clearly, the top of that list is not random.....nor is it littered with just speedy types. Jeter, Cabrera, Gwynn, Ichiro, Puckett, Mauer, Manny, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, et al. Its not coincidental that when these guys put a ball in play, it has a greater chance of becoming a hit. These guys have something in common and I'll give you a hint.....its not luck. These guys are pure hitters and spray hits all over the field. I'd wager that the bat control is so good, I think they quite literally can intentionally hit to gaps in the defense.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 10, 2014 17:22:00 GMT -5
Yes, Betts has the kind of skillset which is conducive to above-average BABIPs. But that doesn't mean he'll be a true-talent .340 BABIP hitter and that his current .320 mark is necessarily excessively low. For one thing, Ichiro has the fifth-highest BABIP in the league since 1980 (min. 5000 PAs), behind only Jeter, Mauer, Cabrera, and Boggs, and as one of the greatest pure hitters in baseball history, he's not a great comp for anyone. Moreover, plenty of players with that sort of skillset maintain above-average but not elite BABIPs. Think Jose Reyes' career .313 BABIP, Johnny Damon's .305 BABIP, Jacoby Ellsbury's career .323 BABIP, etc. Looking at that BABIP list is really interesting, and to me, provides some evidence that BABIP does rely on skill set at least to a degree. I hate when analysts use the logic that an individual's BABIP should regress to some mean overall population. Clearly, the top of that list is not random.....nor is it littered with just speedy types. Jeter, Cabrera, Gwynn, Ichiro, Puckett, Mauer, Manny, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, et al. Its not coincidental that when these guys put a ball in play, it has a greater chance of becoming a hit. These guys have something in common and I'll give you a hint.....its not luck. These guys are pure hitters and spray hits all over the field. I'd wager that the bat control is so good, I think they quite literally can intentionally hit to gaps in the defense. No one who knows anything about BABIP regresses a player's BABIP to a set number when that player has a history of producing higher BABIPs.
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Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2014 17:30:40 GMT -5
Yeah, noone thinks you should regress all hitters' BABIPs to a league-average mark. There are certainly skill-sets which everyone agrees generally produces sustainable above-average BABIPs for hitters: speed, the ability to barrel the ball up and hit an above-average number of line drives (and, conversely, the ability to minimize weak contact), the ability to hit to all fields, the ability to minimize pop-ups, etc.
(Pitchers are a slightly different story.)
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 10, 2014 18:28:38 GMT -5
Yeah, noone thinks you should regress all hitters' BABIPs to a league-average mark. There are certainly skill-sets which everyone agrees generally produces sustainable above-average BABIPs for hitters: speed, the ability to barrel the ball up and hit an above-average number of line drives (and, conversely, the ability to minimize weak contact), the ability to hit to all fields, the ability to minimize pop-ups, etc. (Pitchers are a slightly different story.) Pitchers are a MUCH different story. Pitchers have minimal impact on BABIP reduction. Z-Contact% and IFFB% matter a bit, but it's minimal
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Post by jmei on Sept 10, 2014 18:30:49 GMT -5
Yeah, noone thinks you should regress all hitters' BABIPs to a league-average mark. There are certainly skill-sets which everyone agrees generally produces sustainable above-average BABIPs for hitters: speed, the ability to barrel the ball up and hit an above-average number of line drives (and, conversely, the ability to minimize weak contact), the ability to hit to all fields, the ability to minimize pop-ups, etc. (Pitchers are a slightly different story.) Pitchers are a MUCH different story. Pitchers have minimal impact on BABIP reduction. Z-Contact% and IFFB% matter a bit, but it's minimal Sorry, maybe I should have used the sarcasm font. See, e.g., this.
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