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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by ramireja on Sept 25, 2014 13:24:08 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2014 4:22:15 GMT -5
EDIT: You know all that stuff going on about Derek Jeter right now? Morgan shared Jeter's historically elite bat control, but added significantly better power, speed, and defense. Comparing Betts to Morgan means you are saying that Mookie Betts has a chance to be WAY WAY better than Derek Jeter. Are you comfortable saying that? Age 21 or younger, minimum 200 PA, playing a skill position (not 1B, RF, LF, or DH), OPS+ of 126 or higher, 6 or more SB. (That's not really cherry-picking categories, is it? Age, defensive value, hitting, speed.) Ty Cobb, 1906Larry Doyle, 1908Tris Speaker, 1909Rogers Hornsby, 1916-17 Mickey Mantle, 1953 Vada Pinson, 1959 Joe Morgan, 1965 Johnny Bench, 1969 Cesar Cedeno, 1972Ken Griffey, Jr., 1990-91 Alex Rodriguez, 1966 Mike Trout, 2012-13Mookie Betts, 2014 Only the players in bold have matched or exceeded Mookie's SB / PA rate.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2014 4:51:25 GMT -5
Mookie Betts ... has a good chance of making the Hall of Fame. Yeah, I know you didn't say that! But here's a list of all age 21 and younger seasons with bWAR/150 games greater than 5.8, minimum 200 PA. Player Year W/150 Mike Trout 2012 11.7 Rogers Hornsby 1917 10.2 Alex Rodriguez 1996 9.7 Willie McCovey 1959 8.9 Cesar Cedeno 1972 8.6 Mike Trout 2013 8.5 Rick. Henderson 1980 8.4 Al Kaline 1955 8.1 Jimmie Foxx 1929 8.0 Eddie Mathews 1953 7.9 Mel Ott 1929 7.4 Andruw Jones 1998 7.0 Ken Griffey 1991 6.9 Arky Vaughan 1933 6.9 Frank Robinson 1957 6.9 Mickey Mantle 1952 6.9 Ty Cobb 1907 6.8 Jason Heyward 2010 6.8 Ted Williams 1939 6.7 Tom Brunansky 1982 6.6 Tris Speaker 1909 6.6 Ted Williams 1940 6.6 Mel Ott 1930 6.5 Jeff Francoeur 2005 6.4 Frank Robinson 1956 6.4 Al Kaline 1956 6.4 Vada Pinson 1959 6.3 Mickey Mantle 1953 6.3 Johnny Bench 1969 6.2 Manny Machado 2013 6.2 Albert Pujols 2001 6.1 Donie Bush 1909 6.1 Ty Cobb 1908 6.1 Hank Aaron 1955 6.1 Mookie Betts 2014 6.1 Willie Randolph 1976 6.0 Jimmie Foxx 1928 6.0 Tim Raines 1981 6.0 Alex Rodriguez 1997 6.0 Edit: added Mookie to the list now that b-ref has updated his stats, and then moved him to reflect his final rating.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 26, 2014 6:28:23 GMT -5
If you look at the numbers it's hard to not put Betts into a category as potentially elite. That's what we keep seeing in his game and have seen for months. NWIH we should trade this guy. You find a place for a guy like that to play.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 26, 2014 11:40:34 GMT -5
I have goosebumps. Is Pedroia blocked in this organization? Maybe he can play 3B?
ADD: I'm only 88% joking.
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Post by templeusox on Sept 26, 2014 12:16:57 GMT -5
Them both being short and black?
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 26, 2014 13:37:26 GMT -5
If you look at the numbers it's hard to not put Betts into a category as potentially elite. That's what we keep seeing in his game and have seen for months. NWIH we should trade this guy. You find a place for a guy like that to play. There is no arguing with his results. He looks so much more at ease and in control of an at-bat than even the formally deified Bogaerts. His swing is so short and quick and his strike-zone judgment so good that one can easily envision sustained success. I think he will be a 15-18 hr guy too without the need to swing out of his shoes like Pedey.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 26, 2014 13:54:44 GMT -5
If you look at the numbers it's hard to not put Betts into a category as potentially elite. That's what we keep seeing in his game and have seen for months. NWIH we should trade this guy. You find a place for a guy like that to play. There is no arguing with his results. He looks so much more at ease and in control of an at-bat than even the formally deified Bogaerts. His swing is so short and quick and his strike-zone judgment so good that one can easily envision sustained success. I think he will be a 15-18 hr guy too without the need to swing out of his shoes like Pedey. I think a fair best case scenario for Betts that I haven't seen yet is the year Anthony Rendon is having this year. I would be very happy if that's what he turned into
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 27, 2014 10:40:32 GMT -5
Has anyone made this comparison? Mookie's rates (and SB / CS totals) have been adjusted based on the league rates of him and his comp.
X Mookie Draft 5th 5th Ht 5'8" 5'9" Wt 160 155 ml Pos 2B 2B MLB Pos LF CF? minors PA 1764 1303 BA .306 .320 OBP .405 .423 SA .402 .451 K% .087 .072 BB% .137 .156 HRC .008 .022 BABIP .334 .319 SB 222 100 CS 48 16 rookie season Age 21 21 WAR/150 6.0 6.0
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Post by klostrophobic on Sept 27, 2014 11:21:26 GMT -5
Tim Raines is my fav comp. Maybe Mookie will get into the Hall first.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 27, 2014 11:23:11 GMT -5
Has anyone made this comparison? Mookie's rates have been adjusted based on the league rates of him and his comp. (I may edit this and adjust his SB and CS, too.) X Mookie Draft 5th 5th Ht 5'8" 5'9" Wt 160 155 ml Pos 2B 2B MLB Pos LF CF? minors PA 1764 1303 BA .306 .320 OBP .405 .423 SA .402 .451 K% .087 .072 BB% .137 .156 HRC .008 .022 BABIP .334 .319 SB 222 92 CS 48 15 rookie season Age 21 21 WAR/150 6.0 6.0 Very interesting, although "X" was in AA at 19 and AAA at 20, and played 0 games in AAA at 21, so his minor league stats are more impressive (like those of another X), right?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 28, 2014 22:10:21 GMT -5
Has anyone made this comparison? Very interesting, although "X" was in AA at 19 and AAA at 20, and played 0 games in AAA at 21, so his minor league stats are more impressive (like those of another X), right? I'm not so sure of that. Raines graduated HS at 17 and went through the minors in four years: Rookie, A+, AA, AAA. He never had to deal with a mid-season promotion and the adjustments that come with it. Mookie graduated HS at age 19, for some unknown reason, and then lost all but 4 PA in that year because he signed late. He then matched Raines' feat of reaching MLB at age 21 by going A, high-A, AA, AAA, and MLB in the span of just two years. It's probably true that Raines' numbers should get a boost because of age-relative-to-league adjustments, but OTOH, crossing 5 levels in two seasons climaxing with a 130 wRC+ in MLB is freakishly impressive. Some time this winter I'm going to update and flesh out that table of outstanding seasons at age 21 and below (and I'll average fWAR and bWAR, which will drop Mookie a bit). One of the things I'll look at is path to MLB. I'm very curious as to whether anyone has ever had such a good rookie season at a young age, after starting out so late.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 29, 2014 9:58:05 GMT -5
Them both being short and black? This is part of Cameron's case for trading Betts to Seattle... for Jesus Montero no doubt.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 29, 2014 10:51:27 GMT -5
Very interesting, although "X" was in AA at 19 and AAA at 20, and played 0 games in AAA at 21, so his minor league stats are more impressive (like those of another X), right? I'm not so sure of that. Raines graduated HS at 17 and went through the minors in four years: Rookie, A+, AA, AAA. He never had to deal with a mid-season promotion and the adjustments that come with it. Mookie graduated HS at age 19, for some unknown reason, and then lost all but 4 PA in that year because he signed late. He then matched Raines' feat of reaching MLB at age 21 by going A, high-A, AA, AAA, and MLB in the span of just two years. It's probably true that Raines' numbers should get a boost because of age-relative-to-league adjustments, .... Yeah, that's exactly what I meant.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 29, 2014 11:04:27 GMT -5
I'm calling the next #featofmookie He takes Hamels deep to kick-off 2015, a la Dewey in 86. And, Mookie did in Reading this past spring. Just don't ask me what position he'll be playing.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 18:11:24 GMT -5
If you look closely at Xander's AB and Mookie's it appears to me that Mookie stands about an inch closer to the plate, just daring pitchers to throw inside on him so he can clear it out to LF. He has quicker hands and can hit that inside pitch better. And standing closer to the plate allows him to cover pitches on the outside corner better. That quick twitch bat is going to pay dividends for many years to come.
I honestly think we have't seen the best of Betts yet. I think he is going to blow right past .300 and put up .380-400OBP years as well. He is going to get a lot of infield hits plus all the contact in general, a whole lot of which is solid.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 29, 2014 18:18:01 GMT -5
I'm calling the next #featofmookie He takes Hamels deep to kick-off 2015, a la Dewey in 86. And, Mookie did in Reading this past spring. Just don't ask me what position he'll be playing. Hitting a home run off his own team's staring pitcher is probably going to be a bit awkward though.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 29, 2014 18:20:01 GMT -5
If you look closely at Xander's AB and Mookie's it appears to me that Mookie stands about an inch closer to the plate, just daring pitchers to throw inside on him so he can clear it out to LF. He has quicker hands and can hit that inside pitch better. And standing closer to the plate allows him to cover pitches on the outside corner better. That quick twitch bat is going to pay dividends for many years to come. I honestly think we have't seen the best of Betts yet. I think he is going to blow right past .300 and put up .380-400OBP years as well. He is going to get a lot of infield hits plus all the contact in general, a whole lot of which is solid. Hope he's not peaking at age 21.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Sept 29, 2014 18:37:33 GMT -5
I slowly expect Betts to hit for a little more power as he adjusts and gets more familiar with MLB pitchers. Lets sign him for a ten year contract this off season.
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Post by bookiemetts on Sept 29, 2014 18:41:09 GMT -5
If you look closely at Xander's AB and Mookie's it appears to me that Mookie stands about an inch closer to the plate, just daring pitchers to throw inside on him so he can clear it out to LF. He has quicker hands and can hit that inside pitch better. And standing closer to the plate allows him to cover pitches on the outside corner better. That quick twitch bat is going to pay dividends for many years to come. I honestly think we have't seen the best of Betts yet. I think he is going to blow right past .300 and put up .380-400OBP years as well. He is going to get a lot of infield hits plus all the contact in general, a whole lot of which is solid. Long time reader, and just recently decided to signup and start posting. I think it's fitting that I say that Mookie is really good at baseball and I am very impressed with his bat speed. I also don't know why anyone would try to pitch him inside: www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=13611&position=2B/OF&ss=2014&se=2014&type=5&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=batI agree that when he gets the Xander treatment of sliders away he'll be able to cover the outside edge better.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 29, 2014 21:41:43 GMT -5
If you look closely at Xander's AB and Mookie's it appears to me that Mookie stands about an inch closer to the plate, just daring pitchers to throw inside on him so he can clear it out to LF. He has quicker hands and can hit that inside pitch better. And standing closer to the plate allows him to cover pitches on the outside corner better. That quick twitch bat is going to pay dividends for many years to come. I honestly think we have't seen the best of Betts yet. I think he is going to blow right past .300 and put up .380-400OBP years as well. He is going to get a lot of infield hits plus all the contact in general, a whole lot of which is solid. Long time reader, and just recently decided to signup and start posting. I think it's fitting that I say that Mookie is really good at baseball and I am very impressed with his bat speed. I also don't know why anyone would try to pitch him inside: www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=13611&position=2B/OF&ss=2014&se=2014&type=5&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=batI agree that when he gets the Xander treatment of sliders away he'll be able to cover the outside edge better. He already covers that better, he's very adept at going opposite field with solid contact on low outside stuff, has been doing that all year. Another huge factor in Mookie's case is marketability. I'm pretty sure that factor hasn't escaped the organization's bean counters.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 29, 2014 21:44:47 GMT -5
He stands so close to the plate that he just dares guys to throw it there. He's not Frank Robinson but he has the same idea. I've noticed at least one HR which was well off the plate inside and several right on the line.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 29, 2014 22:44:48 GMT -5
We've got some numbers for Betts, though it's a smallish sample size. That sample does, however, look a lot like his rocket sled trajectory in the minors over the last two seasons, so that may give it a little added weight. He played a little less that a third of the ML season, 52 games with 213 PAs. Let's call it 1/3 of the season. That resulted in 1.8 wins above a replacement player. A straight extrapolation has him at 5.4 WAR if he played most of the year.
Is that realistic? Knock it down to 4.5 if you like. I think he may actually be worth more than that 5+ WAR as he progresses. But let's take the 4.5 WAR as a base. Find another player who's that big a value. Who would the team trade him for who would give them that kind of performance for the cost? There are very few if any. Those advocating for a trade need to give some idea of what the team might get back that would make it worth it. And please use some sort of numerical measure. The dreamscapes are nice, but they don't provide anything to hang an analytical hat on
It's entirely possible that, over the next 3-5 years, he outperforms anyone they could bring on board for less that $20 million per year. I doubt that thought has escaped the front office.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 29, 2014 22:50:25 GMT -5
He already covers that better, he's very adept at going opposite field with solid contact on low outside stuff, has been doing that all year. . Once bogey learns to take the outside pitches the other way, his numbers are going to explode Betts is the lead off hitter to make us forget Ellsbury.
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Post by tonyc on Sept 30, 2014 9:33:48 GMT -5
I echo all these thoughts, good to hear more people not wanting to trade Mookie- I had hoped he'd do well enough in the majors this year to make that a less likely outcome. Teams are holding onto prospects, it was stunning to me that the Lester trade did not result in any, but that is the market now. Welcome here Bookie, I too read here for many years before posting this year, this forum does seem more civilized than most- I read the Globe Bruins one but don't post- and commend the staff here.
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