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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 30, 2015 13:30:41 GMT -5
Dave Cameron article on Mookie's transformations this year 66 XBH has been pretty ridiculousWith a 12.4% K rate! He's so so so good! Before even thinking about signing/trading a TORP, they need to sign him to an extension.
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Post by awall on Sept 30, 2015 13:47:22 GMT -5
I feel like we should send Terry Shumpert a gift basket or something. The intangibles Betts brings to the table in addition to his talent are simply amazing.
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kman22
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Post by kman22 on Sept 30, 2015 15:41:56 GMT -5
I feel like we should send Terry Shumpert a gift basket or something. The intangibles Betts brings to the table in addition to his talent are simply amazing. Or better yet, the Sox should just draft his son.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 30, 2015 16:47:25 GMT -5
Dave Cameron article on Mookie's transformations this year 66 XBH has been pretty ridiculousWith a 12.4% K rate! He's so so so good! Before even thinking about signing/trading a TORP, they need to sign him to an extension. I agree that if we're smart we extend him now. The bat is only going to get better once he cuts his O-swing% down and learns to use the opposite field more, which could be next year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 30, 2015 17:51:59 GMT -5
Dave Cameron article on Mookie's transformations this year 66 XBH has been pretty ridiculous You know, I can appreciate that Cameron has made himself a career as a baseball scribbler, but there's a lot of hyperbole in his setup for this article. This is maybe where he should get out and actually watch a few ballgames? And he should try trusting some of the more mundane stats such as slugging. Here are Betts' career numbers for that stat from Greenville to last year's rookie season: A | .477 | A+ | .561 | AA | .564 | AAA | .503 | MLB | .444 |
He's up to .477 this year, and he's not done. The idea that he was some sort of "contact hitter" with no power is absurd. The guy is carrying an electric guitar, not a banjo. The first few times I watched him hit, even on low grain video, he had one of the quickest bats I'd seen. That came into sharp focus when he made it to the Sox last year and he started driving pitches all around the yard - and over the fences. The equation for kinetic energy is KE = ½mv 2 and he has the v part down every time he "squares" up the ball. I know Fox expects something for their money, but this smacks more than a bit of smoke and mirrors to make sure the check gets sent. Betts was always going to have a lot of extra base hits, and there weren't any questions in my mind about that last year.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 30, 2015 17:56:41 GMT -5
With a 12.4% K rate! He's so so so good! Before even thinking about signing/trading a TORP, they need to sign him to an extension. I agree that if we're smart we extend him now. The bat is only going to get better once he cuts his O-swing% down and learns to use the opposite field more, which could be next year. Once Mookie does take the outside 2 strike pitch to right, he will be competing for a batting title IMO. He has, lately, started to make some hard contact that way. I'm not sure he will have many weaknesses at all if he starts doing that to a degree. I do want him to continue to hit the ball hard to left and center, but just take Xander's approach when it comes to a pitch on the outside corner or off the plate slightly when he has to protect the plate. Honestly, with his speed, contact rates, and hard contact, he could be a high .300 hitter eventually. The sky is the limit for Mookie!
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2015 18:40:06 GMT -5
I know Fox expects something for their money, but this smacks more than a bit of smoke and mirrors to make sure the check gets sent. Betts was always going to have a lot of extra base hits, and there weren't any questions in my mind about that last year. This seems unfair to me. There were lots of well-informed folks who were skeptical of Betts' power potential in the majors, both because of his size and because guys who make as much contact as he does rarely also hit for much power (in his post, Cameron links to an earlier post of his that makes this argument). I do think that folks who followed Betts closely, especially those who saw him in person, were more optimistic on the power potential because of the obvious bat speed that he flashed, but I don't think Cameron was making up these doubts.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 30, 2015 19:58:10 GMT -5
I know Fox expects something for their money, but this smacks more than a bit of smoke and mirrors to make sure the check gets sent. Betts was always going to have a lot of extra base hits, and there weren't any questions in my mind about that last year. This seems unfair to me. There were lots of well-informed folks who were skeptical of Betts' power potential in the majors, both because of his size and because guys who make as much contact as he does rarely also hit for much power (in his post, Cameron links to an earlier post of his that makes this argument). I do think that folks who followed Betts closely, especially those who saw him in person, were more optimistic on the power potential because of the obvious bat speed that he flashed, but I don't think Cameron was making up these doubts. His analysis is really overwrought. There is nothing in Betts' record to indicate he will be anything other than what he's been. He has a track record, after all. He said he would swing more and that's what he's done. That's led to fewer walks, so that was predictable. He's also shown more power. That's quite normal for someone who is 22 years old and still learning the league. I stand by my words. He's been overthinking this, and he's oversold the analysis.
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Post by thursty on Sept 30, 2015 20:28:31 GMT -5
This seems unfair to me. There were lots of well-informed folks who were skeptical of Betts' power potential in the majors, both because of his size and because guys who make as much contact as he does rarely also hit for much power (in his post, Cameron links to an earlier post of his that makes this argument). I do think that folks who followed Betts closely, especially those who saw him in person, were more optimistic on the power potential because of the obvious bat speed that he flashed, but I don't think Cameron was making up these doubts. His analysis is really overwrought. There is nothing in Betts' record to indicate he will be anything other than what he's been. He has a track record, after all. He said he would swing more and that's what he's done. That's led to fewer walks, so that was predictable. He's also shown more power. That's quite normal for someone who is 22 years old and still learning the league. I stand by my words. He's been overthinking this, and he's oversold the analysis. so you forecast a 480 SLG this year? zips had 408 steamer 428
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 30, 2015 20:36:22 GMT -5
... so you forecast a 480 SLG this year? zips had 408 steamer 428 If that's all he gets to, it will be his lowest since A ball. I think he just blew past it anyway. Check out what steamer and zips had for Bradley.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 30, 2015 20:59:02 GMT -5
It is about time we give Mookie a long-term contract. After all, he is a grizzled veteran -- he's the 11th most senior player on the 40-man roster.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 30, 2015 21:13:18 GMT -5
Mookie just took out a high 96 mph fastball from Betances well over the left field fence in Yankee stadium. The guy just hit one out on one of the best relievers in baseball and it was a no doubter. If he plays RF next year I think he might be a 6-7 WAR player. He will get significant plus scores defensively in RF and his base running value could go up as well and he's been crushing the ball in the 2nd half.
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2015 21:25:23 GMT -5
... so you forecast a 480 SLG this year? zips had 408 steamer 428 If that's all he gets to, it will be his lowest since A ball. I think he just blew past it anyway. Check out what steamer and zips had for Bradley. ...and he slugged .444 in the majors last year in a decent-sized sample (213 PAs). I'm glad your projection turned out to be the correct one, but I maintain that there were legitimate questions about how much his power would play up in the majors.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 30, 2015 22:11:02 GMT -5
My god Betts. 18 HR's as a 22 year old rookie. You could assume he'll develop even more power has he hits his prime, but even if he tops out at 15-20, he's a superstar. If he somehow does more, my goodness
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2015 22:30:13 GMT -5
With a 12.4% K rate! He's so so so good! Before even thinking about signing/trading a TORP, they need to sign him to an extension. I agree that if we're smart we extend him now. The bat is only going to get better once he cuts his O-swing% down and learns to use the opposite field more, which could be next year. An extension now would deny Scott Boras a fair shot at stealing Betts away from his current agent and adding him to his stable of Xander, JBJ and Marrero. Do you really want to upset Boras that way?
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Post by thursty on Sept 30, 2015 22:41:29 GMT -5
Mookie just took out a high 96 mph fastball from Betances well over the left field fence in Yankee stadium. The guy just hit one out on one of the best relievers in baseball and it was a no doubter. If he plays RF next year I think he might be a 6-7 WAR player. He will get significant plus scores defensively in RF and his base running value could go up as well and he's been crushing the ball in the 2nd half. yeah, let's move Mookie off his most comfortable position, because he needs to be punished
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 30, 2015 23:03:05 GMT -5
I think Mookie may have just surpassed 5 fWAR.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 30, 2015 23:29:58 GMT -5
Mookie just took out a high 96 mph fastball from Betances well over the left field fence in Yankee stadium. The guy just hit one out on one of the best relievers in baseball and it was a no doubter. If he plays RF next year I think he might be a 6-7 WAR player. He will get significant plus scores defensively in RF and his base running value could go up as well and he's been crushing the ball in the 2nd half. yeah, let's move Mookie off his most comfortable position, because he needs to be punished I've read that they are considering moving Mookie to RF and putting JBJ in CF next year. Just commenting on what looks to be the plan.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Oct 1, 2015 0:17:03 GMT -5
Many (including myself) have said that Betts looks like a McCutchen clone only a few inches shorter. They both have the quick hands, short stature, and 5 tools.
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Post by jmei on Oct 1, 2015 15:11:34 GMT -5
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 1, 2015 16:46:11 GMT -5
Many (including myself) have said that Betts looks like a McCutchen clone only a few inches shorter. They both have the quick hands, short stature, and 5 tools. McCutchen's raw power is better, which allows him to hit ball out to CF/RF, which Mookie can't do. I just hope Mookie starts walking like he used to.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 1, 2015 16:49:08 GMT -5
Some of Mookie's best HR have been on inside pitches outside of the zone! It was funny to watch Yankees pitchers pitch him inside last night. Mookie just backed up and creamed that inside pitch.
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Post by m1keyboots on Oct 1, 2015 17:42:40 GMT -5
I know Fox expects something for their money, but this smacks more than a bit of smoke and mirrors to make sure the check gets sent. Betts was always going to have a lot of extra base hits, and there weren't any questions in my mind about that last year. This seems unfair to me. There were lots of well-informed folks who were skeptical of Betts' power potential in the majors, both because of his size and because guys who make as much contact as he does rarely also hit for much power (in his post, Cameron links to an earlier post of his that makes this argument). I do think that folks who followed Betts closely, especially those who saw him in person, were more optimistic on the power potential because of the obvious bat speed that he flashed, but I don't think Cameron was making up these doubts. I'm in between, I tbought the power he's shown this year was a few years down the road, more of a 12 hr 30 double guy this year. but hes hit 15 or 16 homeruns for 3 years now and a lot of that was while switching leagues. TBH I tbought he was a high contact guy with some pop and 35+ steal potential, but it's obvious he's no joke if you mess around throwing him cookies.
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Post by m1keyboots on Oct 1, 2015 17:47:40 GMT -5
yeah, let's move Mookie off his most comfortable position, because he needs to be punished I've read that they are considering moving Mookie to RF and putting JBJ in CF next year. Just commenting on what looks to be the plan. I think the Mookie in Center over Bradley if he hits anything like his line has sailed. JBJ is obviously a better defender in Center and it's close in right with Mookies pure speed. Why mess with JBJ and take him off his most comfortable position? he's only posted 2.5 war and been an 8 defender per fangraphs in limited time whereas Mookie hovered around 5 all year
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 7, 2015 8:32:26 GMT -5
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