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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by awall on Aug 4, 2018 7:50:53 GMT -5
He only had a few chances last night but looked understandably rusty. A low throw and a couple awkward/slow transfers. He’d get better with more reps, but I’m highly confident that he’s a better defender (even including positional adjustments) in RF as opposed to 2B. Fair enough, I was assuming he would be as good at 2B as he has been in RF. Other than the occasional dive or wall collision, RF might keep him healthier than playing 2B too. My fantasy solution for Pedroia’s injuries and age seems to be simply fantasy. Ah well.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 4, 2018 9:46:46 GMT -5
He only had a few chances last night but looked understandably rusty. A low throw and a couple awkward/slow transfers. He’d get better with more reps, but I’m highly confident that he’s a better defender (even including positional adjustments) in RF as opposed to 2B. Fair enough, I was assuming he would be as good at 2B as he has been in RF. Other than the occasional dive or wall collision, RF might keep him healthier than playing 2B too. My fantasy solution for Pedroia’s injuries and age seems to be simply fantasy. Ah well. It's way easier to find a replacement second baseman these days versus corner outfielders, I think. Maybe that'll change with the next wave of players that comes out from the minor leagues the next few years, but second base is littered with quality ballplayers at the moment. Edit- Missed the Harper discussion, Harper is going to get paid 10 times more than he'll probably be worth this offseason. The Sox shouldn't pay that. They should be giving all that money to Mookie. You can only pay one of these guys, I'd rather it be Mookie, who has been the best player I've ever seen put on a Sox uniform and a perfect fit here imo.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 10, 2018 23:29:58 GMT -5
Fair enough, I was assuming he would be as good at 2B as he has been in RF. Other than the occasional dive or wall collision, RF might keep him healthier than playing 2B too. My fantasy solution for Pedroia’s injuries and age seems to be simply fantasy. Ah well. It's way easier to find a replacement second baseman these days versus corner outfielders, I think. Maybe that'll change with the next wave of players that comes out from the minor leagues the next few years, but second base is littered with quality ballplayers at the moment. Edit- Missed the Harper discussion, Harper is going to get paid 10 times more than he'll probably be worth this offseason. The Sox shouldn't pay that. They should be giving all that money to Mookie. You can only pay one of these guys, I'd rather it be Mookie, who has been the best player I've ever seen put on a Sox uniform and a perfect fit here imo. Agree 100%. I’d love if the Sox got Harper at a reasonable price. But nobody’s going to get him at a reasonable price. Mookie is proving to be the closest thing to Trout out there (with a nod to the remarkable Jose Ramirez), and money spent elsewhere that costs his retention is money wasted. If Mookie commands $35-40M annually he’s probably still going to provide significant excess value for a long time. He belongs in The Bean. FWIW, after tonight, he’s back to leading MLB in fWAR. He leads by several lengths in BA, second in OBP, first again in SLG. Ninth overall in BsR value and SB. Elite defender. Still just reaching his prime. Argue JDM all you want, Nick Cafardo (and there’s certainly something to be said for his behind-the-scenes influence), but the little guy is the AL’s MVP. He’s on a prorated 11-WAR pace. And after 8.3 two years ago, it’s no fluke.
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Post by kevfc89 on Aug 11, 2018 2:06:03 GMT -5
Mookie's year has been awesome; and not just by the deeper stats that reveal how he's been the most valuable player in baseball so far.
Mookie's also had a lot of impressive moments and feats within games that are just plain fun (if a bit arbitrary).
Trying to remember some of them here:
- He's had two!! 3-homer games this year (4 in his career now; Papi never did it once !) - He worked a 13-pitch at bat that ended in a grand slam - He hit the first walkoff homer of his career - He reached base in all 6 of his plate appearances in a game against the Yankees - He hit for the cycle (with a walk on top)
Anything else of note I'm missing in 2018? So many special moments from him so far.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 11, 2018 3:59:59 GMT -5
Mookie's year has been awesome; and not just by the deeper stats that reveal how he's been the most valuable player in baseball so far. Mookie's also had a lot of impressive moments and feats within games that are just plain fun (if a bit arbitrary). Trying to remember some of them here: - He's had two!! 3-homer games this year (4 in his career now; Papi never did it once !) - He worked a 13-pitch at bat that ended in a grand slam - He hit the first walkoff homer of his career - He reached base in all 6 of his plate appearances in a game against the Yankees - He hit for the cycle (with a walk on top) Anything else of note I'm missing in 2018? So many special moments from him so far. It is honestly hard to keep track at this point. Mookie is scoring 1 run a game on average. That is stupid and shouldn't happen. I'm honestly just running out of good things to say about Mookie Betts. He's the only thing close that we are going to see in a once in a 100 year talent like (Mays, Williams, Bonds). I hate to stack him up against those freaks of baseball, but I don't know who else to compare him to at this point. I might cry if I ever see him, Xander, Sale play for another team at this point. Benintendi isn't far behind in this list quietly btw. I'm bracing for it, but I don't want it to end. There IS something different about a undersized 5 foot nothing guy hitting .400 for a half season in AA. This is one of the reasons why it's fun to follow the minor leagues. My love for Mookie is honestly getting close to the Pedro love that I had for him as a player. It's just something you will never forget.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 11, 2018 4:07:49 GMT -5
Don't know if anyone even realized lately or even keep tracks of this stuff, but in the mist of everything Mookie Betts professionally, it continues to get better for him off the field too. His first child. Good for him-
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Post by bluechip on Aug 11, 2018 6:59:06 GMT -5
It's way easier to find a replacement second baseman these days versus corner outfielders, I think. Maybe that'll change with the next wave of players that comes out from the minor leagues the next few years, but second base is littered with quality ballplayers at the moment. Edit- Missed the Harper discussion, Harper is going to get paid 10 times more than he'll probably be worth this offseason. The Sox shouldn't pay that. They should be giving all that money to Mookie. You can only pay one of these guys, I'd rather it be Mookie, who has been the best player I've ever seen put on a Sox uniform and a perfect fit here imo. Agree 100%. I’d love if the Sox got Harper at a reasonable price. But nobody’s going to get him at a reasonable price. Mookie is proving to be the closest thing to Trout out there (with a nod to the remarkable Jose Ramirez), and money spent elsewhere that costs his retention is money wasted. If Mookie commands $35-40M annually he’s probably still going to provide significant excess value for a long time. He belongs in The Bean. FWIW, after tonight, he’s back to leading MLB in fWAR. He leads by several lengths in BA, second in OBP, first again in SLG. Ninth overall in BsR value and SB. Elite defender. Still just reaching his prime. Argue JDM all you want, Nick Cafardo (and there’s certainly something to be said for his behind-the-scenes influence), but the little guy is the AL’s MVP. He’s on a prorated 11-WAR pace. And after 8.3 two years ago, it’s no fluke. He’s Rogers Hornsby to Trout’s Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker to Trout’s Ty Cobb, 1990s Barry Bonds* to Trout’s Ken Griffey. Though he is clearly a much better person and more likeable than any of those guys. I simply mean he is a generational talent, who would be widely considered the best player in the game, if he wasn’t playing at the same time as another slightly better generational talent who IS hailed as a GOAT candidate. * Obviously 2000s Barry Bonds was a much better player than Griffey and was recognized as such. I am also talking about the public perception of the two guys.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 11, 2018 7:25:42 GMT -5
Imagine the conflict for MLB. Two generational superstars with plus personas and neither is a Yankee. How are they going to market a Red Sox or a West Coast player as the face of baseball ?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2018 9:17:49 GMT -5
Imagine the conflict for MLB. Two generational superstars with plus personas and neither is a Yankee. How are they going to market a Red Sox or a West Coast player as the face of baseball ? Don't worry. They'll market Aaron Judge, who is a great player in his own right, just not Trout or Mookie.
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Post by azblue on Aug 11, 2018 9:55:34 GMT -5
Let's see, the Commissioner is a life-long Yankee fan...Who will MLB try to make the face of baseball?..Hummmmm.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 11, 2018 12:05:40 GMT -5
bWAR update
1. Betts • BOS 7.7 2. deGrom • NYM 7.6 3. Trout • LAA 7.5 4. Nola • PHI 7.3 5. Ramirez • CLE 6.8 6. Lindor • CLE 6.7 7. Sale • BOS 6.5 8. Chapman • OAK 6.1 9. Carpenter • STL 5.9 10. Bauer • CLE 5.8
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Post by telson13 on Aug 11, 2018 21:31:57 GMT -5
bWAR update 1. Betts • BOS 7.7 2. deGrom • NYM 7.6 3. Trout • LAA 7.5 4. Nola • PHI 7.3 5. Ramirez • CLE 6.8 6. Lindor • CLE 6.7 7. Sale • BOS 6.5 8. Chapman • OAK 6.1 9. Carpenter • STL 5.9 10. Bauer • CLE 5.8 Betts leads bot bWAR and fWAR with 7.7. He’s also looking like he could build a little bit of an edge while Trout is out for ten days. It’ll certainly be a race, with both Ramirez and Lindor in the thick of it, but my money’s on Mookie. He just does everything. As awesome as JDM has been (and he’s been incredible), Mookie’s still outhitting him by 20 points, getting OB at a 40 point edge, and outslugging him, not to mention having 23 SB (and a 90% success rate), and playing elite defense. The Betts/Martinez and Ramirez/Lindor tandems are easily two of the top-5 I’ve ever seen. This year has just been astounding for being so exceptional on the hitting end in the AL. Very real possibility of three 10-WAR players and outside chance with Lindor of 4. Wow.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2018 1:46:30 GMT -5
Games played (when the above chart was made):
Betts 97 Trout 109 Ramirez 114 Lindor 114 Chapman 100 Carpenter 111
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Post by telson13 on Aug 12, 2018 14:36:58 GMT -5
Mookie's year has been awesome; and not just by the deeper stats that reveal how he's been the most valuable player in baseball so far. Mookie's also had a lot of impressive moments and feats within games that are just plain fun (if a bit arbitrary). Trying to remember some of them here: - He's had two!! 3-homer games this year (4 in his career now; Papi never did it once !) - He worked a 13-pitch at bat that ended in a grand slam - He hit the first walkoff homer of his career - He reached base in all 6 of his plate appearances in a game against the Yankees - He hit for the cycle (with a walk on top) Anything else of note I'm missing in 2018? So many special moments from him so far. It is honestly hard to keep track at this point. Mookie is scoring 1 run a game on average. That is stupid and shouldn't happen. I'm honestly just running out of good things to say about Mookie Betts. He's the only thing close that we are going to see in a once in a 100 year talent like (Mays, Williams, Bonds). I hate to stack him up against those freaks of baseball, but I don't know who else to compare him to at this point. I might cry if I ever see him, Xander, Sale play for another team at this point. Benintendi isn't far behind in this list quietly btw. I'm bracing for it, but I don't want it to end. There IS something different about a undersized 5 foot nothing guy hitting .400 for a half season in AA. This is one of the reasons why it's fun to follow the minor leagues. My love for Mookie is honestly getting close to the Pedro love that I had for him as a player. It's just something you will never forget. Mookie really is one of those guys who’s just been a joy to follow all the way from his brief SS experiment in Lowell, to his BB breakout in Greenville, the sudden power surge that followed and continued in Salem. The uninspiring but solid turn in the AFL that didn’t remotely portend his incendiary start in Portland and the subsequent rocket ascension to MLB, when he was arguably the brightest spot in a lost season. And, after a terrific but not eye-popping fist full season (that mirrored his debut), his ascension to superstar status with that incredible sophomore (full) season. He just continues to surprise, to evolve, and to endear himself to us fans with his humble confidence and “aw shucks” manners. He’s reserved, and not so eager for the spotlight, but he’s an everyman’s superstar. Like you, Pedro Martinez will probably always be my favorite Sox player. It’s not just for his luminously transcendent pitching despite a relatively diminutive physique, or his undeniable flair for the dramatic, or his underrecognized but undeniable intellect. What really defines him for me are those indelible moments that are the stuff of legend. The 17-K game in NY. The utter domination in the AS game. And, more than *any* other moment in my years of watching baseball, the deathly silence of the shocked crowd, raucous beyond belief just moments before, as an injured Pedro, forever stripped of his greatest weapon, nonetheless strode to the mound in Cleveland and proceeded to obliterate one of the greatest offensive juggernauts in history. Mookie is creating those memories. He is becoming the stuff of legends before our eyes. And he’s doing it surrounded by some of the greatest players of our era, on a team that yet threatens to be, arguably, the greatest of all time. The idea of him playing anywhere else, ever, is anathema.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 12, 2018 14:57:39 GMT -5
Fwiw, Benintendi’s ascent, offensively at least, mirrors Mookie’s to a surprising degree. He’s a bit different as a hitter, walking and striking out more, but the WAR differences in their full sophomore seasons are largely defense-related. Benintendi is a similarly outstanding baserunner, both in terms of stealing instincts and taking extra bases. And, his barrel rate is similar, which gives me hope that, as with Mookie, there’s room for a BA/XBH leap if his EVs take a jump with improved contact quality. It’s easy to forget that he’s only *just* turned 24. He’s honing his craft surrounded by some of the game’s very best hitters, and with the ultimate player-coach to guide him. His defense is incrementally improving, too. There’s room for Beni to take a leap as Mookie has, perhaps not as much with the HR, but certainly to approach the sort of offensive production of someone like, say, Joey Votto. That might sound like hyperbole, but I don’t think any of us saw Mookie becoming a perennial 30-40 HR threat. Beni looks like he’s on the cusp of being a perennial .320/.400+/.550 hitter, who steals 25-30 bases and plays the Wall with aplomb on his way to, if not elite, well-above average defense. And that’s to say nothing of the continued progression of Devers and Bogey. The Sox’s core is SO talented, and they’re growing together before our eyes, led by a generational talent whose approach to the game mirrors that of this year’s team.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2018 15:35:02 GMT -5
Fwiw, Benintendi’s ascent, offensively at least, mirrors Mookie’s to a surprising degree. He’s a bit different as a hitter, walking and striking out more, but the WAR differences in their full sophomore seasons are largely defense-related. Benintendi is a similarly outstanding baserunner, both in terms of stealing instincts and taking extra bases. And, his barrel rate is similar, which gives me hope that, as with Mookie, there’s room for a BA/XBH leap if his EVs take a jump with improved contact quality. It’s easy to forget that he’s only *just* turned 24. He’s honing his craft surrounded by some of the game’s very best hitters, and with the ultimate player-coach to guide him. His defense is incrementally improving, too. There’s room for Beni to take a leap as Mookie has, perhaps not as much with the HR, but certainly to approach the sort of offensive production of someone like, say, Joey Votto. That might sound like hyperbole, but I don’t think any of us saw Mookie becoming a perennial 30-40 HR threat. Beni looks like he’s on the cusp of being a perennial .320/.400+/.550 hitter, who steals 25-30 bases and plays the Wall with aplomb on his way to, if not elite, well-above average defense. And that’s to say nothing of the continued progression of Devers and Bogey. The Sox’s core is SO talented, and they’re growing together before our eyes, led by a generational talent whose approach to the game mirrors that of this year’s team. Beni is an awesome player and he got screwed out of the All-Star game this year, but I have a hard time imagining him adding another .100+ to his ISO to get him close to Mookie's level. I have a hard time believing that any player could improve as much as Mookie did this year.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 12, 2018 16:25:22 GMT -5
Fwiw, Benintendi’s ascent, offensively at least, mirrors Mookie’s to a surprising degree. He’s a bit different as a hitter, walking and striking out more, but the WAR differences in their full sophomore seasons are largely defense-related. Benintendi is a similarly outstanding baserunner, both in terms of stealing instincts and taking extra bases. And, his barrel rate is similar, which gives me hope that, as with Mookie, there’s room for a BA/XBH leap if his EVs take a jump with improved contact quality. It’s easy to forget that he’s only *just* turned 24. He’s honing his craft surrounded by some of the game’s very best hitters, and with the ultimate player-coach to guide him. His defense is incrementally improving, too. There’s room for Beni to take a leap as Mookie has, perhaps not as much with the HR, but certainly to approach the sort of offensive production of someone like, say, Joey Votto. That might sound like hyperbole, but I don’t think any of us saw Mookie becoming a perennial 30-40 HR threat. Beni looks like he’s on the cusp of being a perennial .320/.400+/.550 hitter, who steals 25-30 bases and plays the Wall with aplomb on his way to, if not elite, well-above average defense. And that’s to say nothing of the continued progression of Devers and Bogey. The Sox’s core is SO talented, and they’re growing together before our eyes, led by a generational talent whose approach to the game mirrors that of this year’s team. Beni is an awesome player and he got screwed out of the All-Star game this year, but I have a hard time imagining him adding another .100+ to his ISO to get him close to Mookie's level. I have a hard time believing that any player could improve as much as Mookie did this year. It is hard for anyone to improve to the point of being Ted Williams for a year. No doubt.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 13, 2018 11:43:52 GMT -5
Fwiw, Benintendi’s ascent, offensively at least, mirrors Mookie’s to a surprising degree. He’s a bit different as a hitter, walking and striking out more, but the WAR differences in their full sophomore seasons are largely defense-related. Benintendi is a similarly outstanding baserunner, both in terms of stealing instincts and taking extra bases. And, his barrel rate is similar, which gives me hope that, as with Mookie, there’s room for a BA/XBH leap if his EVs take a jump with improved contact quality. It’s easy to forget that he’s only *just* turned 24. He’s honing his craft surrounded by some of the game’s very best hitters, and with the ultimate player-coach to guide him. His defense is incrementally improving, too. There’s room for Beni to take a leap as Mookie has, perhaps not as much with the HR, but certainly to approach the sort of offensive production of someone like, say, Joey Votto. That might sound like hyperbole, but I don’t think any of us saw Mookie becoming a perennial 30-40 HR threat. Beni looks like he’s on the cusp of being a perennial .320/.400+/.550 hitter, who steals 25-30 bases and plays the Wall with aplomb on his way to, if not elite, well-above average defense. And that’s to say nothing of the continued progression of Devers and Bogey. The Sox’s core is SO talented, and they’re growing together before our eyes, led by a generational talent whose approach to the game mirrors that of this year’s team. Beni is an awesome player and he got screwed out of the All-Star game this year, but I have a hard time imagining him adding another .100+ to his ISO to get him close to Mookie's level. I have a hard time believing that any player could improve as much as Mookie did this year. Well, I was pretty clear that I don’t think he’ll have that isoP jump. I’m predicting an isoP of .230 (.550-.320) with a BA jump and an OBP increase from higher BAs. I think his isoP could reasonably be expected to peak around .250; obviously the .300+ Mookie’s put up is highly unusual, although Ramirez has done the same as a similarly small player. He’s an elite contact guy, while Mookie’s more of an elite “aggressive selectivity” guy, so there are multiple ways to do it. I think the quality of Benintendi’s hit tool, similar to those other two, makes his power/production a little (lot?) more projectable than, say, the reverse...a guy with power suddenly developing selectivity. Scooter Gennett is another example of a middling EV player who starts hitting HR by sheer hit tool development. And he’s not even elite.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2018 1:29:38 GMT -5
All the 10.0 or better bWAR seasons for players 25 and younger. ** marks a projection based on a current total of 8.1. This is decent company.
Player bWAR Year Age Tm Lg G PA Babe Ruth 11.9 1920 25 NYY AL 142 616 Lou Gehrig 11.8 1927 24 NYY AL 155 717 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1957 25 NYY AL 144 623 **Mookie Betts 11.3 2018 25 BOS AL 139 640 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 NYY AL 150 652 Rogers Hornsby 10.8 1921 25 STL NL 154 674 Ty Cobb 10.7 1911 24 DET AL 146 654 Willie Mays 10.6 1954 23 NYG NL 151 641 Ted Williams 10.6 1942 23 BOS AL 150 671 Ted Williams 10.6 1941 22 BOS AL 143 606 Ty Cobb 10.6 1910 23 DET AL 140 590 Mike Trout 10.5 2016 24 LAA AL 159 681 Mike Trout 10.5 2012 20 LAA AL 139 639 Jimmie Foxx 10.5 1932 24 PHA AL 154 702 Eddie Collins 10.5 1910 23 PHA AL 153 658 Alex Rodriguez 10.4 2000 24 SEA AL 148 672 Tris Speaker 10.1 1912 24 BOS AL 153 675 Bryce Harper 10.0 2015 22 WSN NL 153 654 Cal Ripken 10.0 1984 23 BAL AL 162 716 This is also interesting: WAR/650 PA.
Player W/650 Year Age Babe Ruth 12.6 1920 25 Mickey Mantle 11.8 1957 25 Ty Cobb 11.7 1910 23 **Mookie Betts 11.5 2018 25 Ted Williams 11.4 1941 22 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 Willie Mays 10.7 1954 23 Lou Gehrig 10.7 1927 24 Mike Trout 10.7 2012 20 Ty Cobb 10.6 1911 24 Rogers Hornsby 10.4 1921 25 Eddie Collins 10.4 1910 23 Ted Williams 10.3 1942 23 Alex Rodriguez 10.1 2000 24 Mike Trout 10.0 2016 24 The game was so different in Cobb's time that I think he belongs as a footnote. That leaves the more impressive seasons (if Mookie keeps this up) as the legendary Ruth 1920 and Teddy 1941, plus the ought-to-be legendary Mantle '57. Considering how much tougher the game is now, I'll take projected Mookie over Mantle '56.
You could also say Trout 2012, just because of his age, but it proved to be his best 25-and-younger season, with the suggestion that he benefited from opponent inexperience and underestimation based on his bad trial the year before.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 14, 2018 2:34:50 GMT -5
All the 10.0 or better bWAR seasons for players 25 and younger. ** marks a projection based on a current total of 8.1. This is decent company.
Player bWAR Year Age Tm Lg G PA Babe Ruth 11.9 1920 25 NYY AL 142 616 Lou Gehrig 11.8 1927 24 NYY AL 155 717 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1957 25 NYY AL 144 623 **Mookie Betts 11.3 2018 25 BOS AL 139 640 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 NYY AL 150 652 Rogers Hornsby 10.8 1921 25 STL NL 154 674 Ty Cobb 10.7 1911 24 DET AL 146 654 Willie Mays 10.6 1954 23 NYG NL 151 641 Ted Williams 10.6 1942 23 BOS AL 150 671 Ted Williams 10.6 1941 22 BOS AL 143 606 Ty Cobb 10.6 1910 23 DET AL 140 590 Mike Trout 10.5 2016 24 LAA AL 159 681 Mike Trout 10.5 2012 20 LAA AL 139 639 Jimmie Foxx 10.5 1932 24 PHA AL 154 702 Eddie Collins 10.5 1910 23 PHA AL 153 658 Alex Rodriguez 10.4 2000 24 SEA AL 148 672 Tris Speaker 10.1 1912 24 BOS AL 153 675 Bryce Harper 10.0 2015 22 WSN NL 153 654 Cal Ripken 10.0 1984 23 BAL AL 162 716 This is also interesting: WAR/650 PA.
Player W/650 Year Age Babe Ruth 12.6 1920 25 Mickey Mantle 11.8 1957 25 Ty Cobb 11.7 1910 23 **Mookie Betts 11.5 2018 25 Ted Williams 11.4 1941 22 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 Willie Mays 10.7 1954 23 Lou Gehrig 10.7 1927 24 Mike Trout 10.7 2012 20 Ty Cobb 10.6 1911 24 Rogers Hornsby 10.4 1921 25 Eddie Collins 10.4 1910 23 Ted Williams 10.3 1942 23 Alex Rodriguez 10.1 2000 24 Mike Trout 10.0 2016 24 The game was so different in Cobb's time that I think he belongs as a footnote. That leaves the more impressive seasons (if Mookie keeps this up) as the legendary Ruth 1920 and Teddy 1941, plus the ought-to-be legendary Mantle '57. Considering how much tougher the game is now, I'll take projected Mookie over Mantle '56.
You could also say Trout 2012, just because of his age, but it proved to be his best 25-and-younger season, with the suggestion that he benefited from opponent inexperience and underestimation based on his bad trial the year before.
Actually, one might use this information as another way of making the case that Ted Williams was the greatest hitter in the game's history. He's up there twice with a few others, BUT he missed his age 24 and 25 seasons due to his participation in WWII. Had he been playing, it's more likely than not that he would have put up at least one and quite possibly two more seasons of this type, becoming THE dominant player on the list.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 14, 2018 5:34:52 GMT -5
All the 10.0 or better bWAR seasons for players 25 and younger. ** marks a projection based on a current total of 8.1. This is decent company.
Player bWAR Year Age Tm Lg G PA Babe Ruth 11.9 1920 25 NYY AL 142 616 Lou Gehrig 11.8 1927 24 NYY AL 155 717 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1957 25 NYY AL 144 623 **Mookie Betts 11.3 2018 25 BOS AL 139 640 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 NYY AL 150 652 Rogers Hornsby 10.8 1921 25 STL NL 154 674 Ty Cobb 10.7 1911 24 DET AL 146 654 Willie Mays 10.6 1954 23 NYG NL 151 641 Ted Williams 10.6 1942 23 BOS AL 150 671 Ted Williams 10.6 1941 22 BOS AL 143 606 Ty Cobb 10.6 1910 23 DET AL 140 590 Mike Trout 10.5 2016 24 LAA AL 159 681 Mike Trout 10.5 2012 20 LAA AL 139 639 Jimmie Foxx 10.5 1932 24 PHA AL 154 702 Eddie Collins 10.5 1910 23 PHA AL 153 658 Alex Rodriguez 10.4 2000 24 SEA AL 148 672 Tris Speaker 10.1 1912 24 BOS AL 153 675 Bryce Harper 10.0 2015 22 WSN NL 153 654 Cal Ripken 10.0 1984 23 BAL AL 162 716 This is also interesting: WAR/650 PA.
Player W/650 Year Age Babe Ruth 12.6 1920 25 Mickey Mantle 11.8 1957 25 Ty Cobb 11.7 1910 23 **Mookie Betts 11.5 2018 25 Ted Williams 11.4 1941 22 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 Willie Mays 10.7 1954 23 Lou Gehrig 10.7 1927 24 Mike Trout 10.7 2012 20 Ty Cobb 10.6 1911 24 Rogers Hornsby 10.4 1921 25 Eddie Collins 10.4 1910 23 Ted Williams 10.3 1942 23 Alex Rodriguez 10.1 2000 24 Mike Trout 10.0 2016 24 The game was so different in Cobb's time that I think he belongs as a footnote. That leaves the more impressive seasons (if Mookie keeps this up) as the legendary Ruth 1920 and Teddy 1941, plus the ought-to-be legendary Mantle '57. Considering how much tougher the game is now, I'll take projected Mookie over Mantle '56.
You could also say Trout 2012, just because of his age, but it proved to be his best 25-and-younger season, with the suggestion that he benefited from opponent inexperience and underestimation based on his bad trial the year before.
In other words, Mookie is on pace to have, by a nice margin, the best season by some under the age of 26, in the expansion era (post 1960).
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 14, 2018 6:32:53 GMT -5
Imagine if they'd played him in CF.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Aug 14, 2018 8:23:01 GMT -5
Imagine if they'd played him in CF. And if he didn’t miss so many games in comparison to Trout this season. He would be the favorite to win the AL MVP.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2018 10:10:28 GMT -5
All the 10.0 or better bWAR seasons for players 25 and younger. ** marks a projection based on a current total of 8.1. This is decent company.
Player bWAR Year Age Tm Lg G PA Ted Williams 10.6 1942 23 BOS AL 150 671 Ted Williams 10.6 1941 22 BOS AL 143 606
The game was so different in Cobb's time that I think he belongs as a footnote. That leaves the more impressive seasons (if Mookie keeps this up) as the legendary Ruth 1920 and Teddy 1941, plus the ought-to-be legendary Mantle '57. Considering how much tougher the game is now, I'll take projected Mookie over Mantle '56.
You could also say Trout 2012, just because of his age, but it proved to be his best 25-and-younger season, with the suggestion that he benefited from opponent inexperience and underestimation based on his bad trial the year before.
Actually, one might use this information as another way of making the case that Ted Williams was the greatest hitter in the game's history. He's up there twice with a few others, BUT he missed his age 24 and 25 seasons due to his participation in WWII. Had he been playing, it's more likely than not that he would have put up at least one and quite possibly two more seasons of this type, becoming THE dominant player on the list. Absolutely and unquestionably. A great sabermetric project would be to try to estimate Williams' numbers for his missing years, given the before and after, by looking at his comps (not there were actually any). I believe that Bill James (or someone else) did it once, but without today's deeper understanding of the game and without advanced stat tools to look at what his peers did. I think the project would have to construct a rise-and-fall skills curve and an ascending knowledge curve for each hitter, which would itself be really informative. Jim Rice's knowledge curve, for instance, appears to have been a flat line -- something I thought watching him his whole career, and before his rapid decline.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 14, 2018 10:50:41 GMT -5
Beni is an awesome player and he got screwed out of the All-Star game this year, but I have a hard time imagining him adding another .100+ to his ISO to get him close to Mookie's level. I have a hard time believing that any player could improve as much as Mookie did this year. Well, I was pretty clear that I don’t think he’ll have that isoP jump. I’m predicting an isoP of .230 (.550-.320) with a BA jump and an OBP increase from higher BAs. I think his isoP could reasonably be expected to peak around .250; obviously the .300+ Mookie’s put up is highly unusual, although Ramirez has done the same as a similarly small player. He’s an elite contact guy, while Mookie’s more of an elite “aggressive selectivity” guy, so there are multiple ways to do it. I think the quality of Benintendi’s hit tool, similar to those other two, makes his power/production a little (lot?) more projectable than, say, the reverse...a guy with power suddenly developing selectivity. Scooter Gennett is another example of a middling EV player who starts hitting HR by sheer hit tool development. And he’s not even elite. You hit on something that I'm waiting to happen. Power as a result of the development of the hit tool. I believe that's the avenue Devers will take to stardom. Hopefully, it's happening now meaning very recently.
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