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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2018 11:00:22 GMT -5
Well, I was pretty clear that I don’t think he’ll have that isoP jump. I’m predicting an isoP of .230 (.550-.320) with a BA jump and an OBP increase from higher BAs. I think his isoP could reasonably be expected to peak around .250; obviously the .300+ Mookie’s put up is highly unusual, although Ramirez has done the same as a similarly small player. He’s an elite contact guy, while Mookie’s more of an elite “aggressive selectivity” guy, so there are multiple ways to do it. I think the quality of Benintendi’s hit tool, similar to those other two, makes his power/production a little (lot?) more projectable than, say, the reverse...a guy with power suddenly developing selectivity. Scooter Gennett is another example of a middling EV player who starts hitting HR by sheer hit tool development. And he’s not even elite. You hit on something that I'm waiting to happen. Power as a result of the development of the hit tool. I believe that's the avenue Devers will take to stardom. Hopefully, it's happening now meaning very recently. Devers has a ton more raw power than Benintendi. I bet he has about 20 balls hit harder than Beni's hardest hit ball this year. JBJ's hit tool definitely holds back his power. He may have more than just about anyone. He doesn't hit many cheapies.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 14, 2018 11:26:59 GMT -5
You hit on something that I'm waiting to happen. Power as a result of the development of the hit tool. I believe that's the avenue Devers will take to stardom. Hopefully, it's happening now meaning very recently. Devers has a ton more raw power than Benintendi. I bet he has about 20 balls hit harder than Beni's hardest hit ball this year. JBJ's hit tool definitely holds back his power. He may have more than just about anyone. He doesn't hit many cheapies. Agreed. I’d have to take a real look at his contact profile to guess where JBJ’s issue lies. He has very good discipline so I get the sense that he’s just lacking some aspect of fine motor control to allow him to make solid contact. Totally gestalt and not based on data since I don’t have time to check RN, but his pitch recognition seems plenty adequate. He definitely gets fooled esp during cold streaks, but he also works counts. I get the sense he identifies pitches alright but often just swings through them. He’s a relatively small guy, but I agree that his raw power is very underrated...probably for that reason. When he does get ahold of one, he crushes them. He’s got a pretty solid docket of 430-450 footers. As for Devers, his raw power is terrific if not elite. Maybe 60 or even 65? He’s so young that I’m not surprised at all with the growing pains. Reminds me of his first A-ball foray. I do think he has the innate ability and the work ethic to be a 60 hitter, and if he does, I think the raw power actually plays up. Mookie is obviously an unusual case, as is Ramirez. Or Lindor, for that matter. Benintendi doesn’t have impressive EVs, but I do think it’s possible that those will increase with more barrels. And I’m confident that his hit tool is so good that his average power will play up...he’ll hit enough balls on the nose that, despite not being particularly strong, he’ll hit HR simply by impacting the ball more efficiently. That may involve more aggressive selectivity like Mookie, improving his contact skills, or some other adjustments. I like the odds that he does it, for sure.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 14, 2018 11:28:02 GMT -5
Williams missed 3 years in his prime, not 2. A conservative estimate is that it cost him 31 wins. But that's not all. He only played 43 games thanks to the Korean War, when he was John Glenn's wingman. That probably cost him another 13 wins. It's hard to overstate what a great hitter he was.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2018 11:34:27 GMT -5
Devers has a ton more raw power than Benintendi. I bet he has about 20 balls hit harder than Beni's hardest hit ball this year. JBJ's hit tool definitely holds back his power. He may have more than just about anyone. He doesn't hit many cheapies. Agreed. I’d have to take a real look at his contact profile to guess where JBJ’s issue lies. He has very good discipline so I get the sense that he’s just lacking some aspect of fine motor control to allow him to make solid contact. Totally gestalt and not based on data since I don’t have time to check RN, but his pitch recognition seems plenty adequate. He definitely gets fooled esp during cold streaks, but he also works counts. I get the sense he identifies pitches alright but often just swings through them. He’s a relatively small guy, but I agree that his raw power is very underrated...probably for that reason. When he does get ahold of one, he crushes them. He’s got a pretty solid docket of 430-450 footers. As for Devers, his raw power is terrific if not elite. Maybe 60 or even 65? He’s so young that I’m not surprised at all with the growing pains. Reminds me of his first A-ball foray. I do think he has the innate ability and the work ethic to be a 60 hitter, and if he does, I think the raw power actually plays up. Mookie is obviously an unusual case, as is Ramirez. Or Lindor, for that matter. Benintendi doesn’t have impressive EVs, but I do think it’s possible that those will increase with more barrels. And I’m confident that his hit tool is so good that his average power will play up...he’ll hit enough balls on the nose that, despite not being particularly strong, he’ll hit HR simply by impacting the ball more efficiently. That may involve more aggressive selectivity like Mookie, improving his contact skills, or some other adjustments. I like the odds that he does it, for sure. I think the ability for a batter to have his game power reach his raw power is the same as his ability to barrel a lot of balls. Mookie's power is so elite because of all the ball he barrels. Maybe his game power even exceeds his raw power because of it? It's not because he can hit 480 foot homers in batting practice.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 14, 2018 11:40:33 GMT -5
Agreed. I’d have to take a real look at his contact profile to guess where JBJ’s issue lies. He has very good discipline so I get the sense that he’s just lacking some aspect of fine motor control to allow him to make solid contact. Totally gestalt and not based on data since I don’t have time to check RN, but his pitch recognition seems plenty adequate. He definitely gets fooled esp during cold streaks, but he also works counts. I get the sense he identifies pitches alright but often just swings through them. He’s a relatively small guy, but I agree that his raw power is very underrated...probably for that reason. When he does get ahold of one, he crushes them. He’s got a pretty solid docket of 430-450 footers. As for Devers, his raw power is terrific if not elite. Maybe 60 or even 65? He’s so young that I’m not surprised at all with the growing pains. Reminds me of his first A-ball foray. I do think he has the innate ability and the work ethic to be a 60 hitter, and if he does, I think the raw power actually plays up. Mookie is obviously an unusual case, as is Ramirez. Or Lindor, for that matter. Benintendi doesn’t have impressive EVs, but I do think it’s possible that those will increase with more barrels. And I’m confident that his hit tool is so good that his average power will play up...he’ll hit enough balls on the nose that, despite not being particularly strong, he’ll hit HR simply by impacting the ball more efficiently. That may involve more aggressive selectivity like Mookie, improving his contact skills, or some other adjustments. I like the odds that he does it, for sure. I think the ability for a batter to have his game power reach his raw power is the same as his ability to barrel a lot of balls. Mookie's power is so elite because of all the ball he barrels. Maybe his game power even exceeds his raw power because of it? It's not because he can hit 480 foot homers in batting practice. That’s what I mean by raw power playing up. It’s a funny conundrum because right now Mookie has essentially 70 game power. And according to the “rules,” game power can’t exceed raw power. But if you tried to tell me he had 70 raw power I’d laugh.
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Post by dmaineah on Aug 14, 2018 14:24:13 GMT -5
Imagine if they'd played him in CF. He'd be the best CF in MLB
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2018 14:25:49 GMT -5
Imagine if they'd played him in CF. He'd be the best in MLB He is now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2018 3:08:55 GMT -5
Williams missed 3 years in his prime, not 2. A conservative estimate is that it cost him 31 wins. But that's not all. He only played 43 games thanks to the Korean War, when he was John Glenn's wingman. That probably cost him another 13 wins. It's hard to overstate what a great hitter he was. The "one or two more years" remark was about seasons at age 25 and younger. It confused me at first, too.
As great as Teddy Ballgame was, even he wasn't capable of having an age-25 season when he was 26, as he was in '45.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 25, 2018 10:58:46 GMT -5
In his last 10 G (9 GS), Mookie's lost 0.5 wins off of his projection, from 11.3 to 10.8. Not coincidentally, the team is 5-5.
The 0.5 loss drops him down on the all-time leader board one entire place, behind Mantle '56, and on the WAR/650 PA board two whole places, behind that and Williams '41.
The air is rarefied up there.
BTW, this slump started when they gave him most of two days off, including the loss to the Phillies where he had the RBI pinch-hit single. That brought his August line up to .449 / .557 / .816 (61 PA). Since flying back to Boston, he's .176 / .243 / .235 in 8 G / 37 PA . Par for the course would be struggling for another four games.
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Post by geostorm on Aug 25, 2018 15:24:02 GMT -5
Austin J. Eich @eich_AJ 36m36 minutes ago
26 MLB hitters have at least 100 HR since 2015. Only seven have done so while maintaining a batting average above .300:
• Mike Trout • Paul Goldschmidt • Charlie Blackmon • Joey Votto • Freddie Freeman • JD Martinez • Mookie Betts
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 28, 2018 14:54:16 GMT -5
Your fWAR leaderboard as of today:
Betts - 8.1 Trout - 8.0 Ramirez - 8.0
Congratulations to JD Martinez on his upcoming MVP award.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 28, 2018 19:23:53 GMT -5
Your fWAR leaderboard as of today: Betts - 8.1 Trout - 8.0 Ramirez - 8.0 Congratulations to JD Martinez on his upcoming MVP award. I get that’s snark, but I would vote for JDM right now. Guy helped the whole Sox lineup elevate. I’m not sure it is a coincidence that Mookie’s only off (for him) year came when the Sox lacked a real intimidator in the middle.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 29, 2018 12:49:20 GMT -5
Your fWAR leaderboard as of today: Betts - 8.1 Trout - 8.0 Ramirez - 8.0 Congratulations to JD Martinez on his upcoming MVP award. I get that’s snark, but I would vote for JDM right now. Guy helped the whole Sox lineup elevate. I’m not sure it is a coincidence that Mookie’s only off (for him) year came when the Sox lacked a real intimidator in the middle. It's pretty bold to give all the credit for Mookie's season to JD. Maybe it was Cora who elevated the lineup. Maybe it was Swihart! Plus, JD's had a career year too. Why doesn't Mookie get bonus points for "elevating" JD? In the end, all we know for sure is what we see on the field, and Mookie has been JD's bat with exponentially better defense and baserunning.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 29, 2018 13:05:00 GMT -5
I get that’s snark, but I would vote for JDM right now. Guy helped the whole Sox lineup elevate. I’m not sure it is a coincidence that Mookie’s only off (for him) year came when the Sox lacked a real intimidator in the middle. It's pretty bold to give all the credit for Mookie's season to JD. Maybe it was Cora who elevated the lineup. Maybe it was Swihart! Plus, JD's had a career year too. Why doesn't Mookie get bonus points for "elevating" JD? In the end, all we know for sure is what we see on the field, and Mookie has been JD's bat with exponentially better defense and baserunning. I don't think JDM is having a career year. I think he was every bit as good last season. JDM has been a help to Mookie as Mookie is always asking him for advice but if I had an MVP vote it would go to Mookie for his all around game, but speaking of which Jose Ramirez might wind up taking the award. He's been pretty awesome, too.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 29, 2018 14:07:38 GMT -5
It's pretty bold to give all the credit for Mookie's season to JD. Maybe it was Cora who elevated the lineup. Maybe it was Swihart! Plus, JD's had a career year too. Why doesn't Mookie get bonus points for "elevating" JD? In the end, all we know for sure is what we see on the field, and Mookie has been JD's bat with exponentially better defense and baserunning. I don't think JDM is having a career year. I think he was every bit as good last season. JDM has been a help to Mookie as Mookie is always asking him for advice but if I had an MVP vote it would go to Mookie for his all around game, but speaking of which Jose Ramirez might wind up taking the award. He's been pretty awesome, too. I don’t think I gave JDM ALL the credit. I simply appreciate that he has had an impact akin to Big Papi in the middle of the lineup. It is true Mookie plays great D. I would be very happy if he were MVP. I also apreciate that JDM DHs because it is what’s best. Mookie has been JD’s bat except JD is winning the BoSox triple crown at the moment. By a lot in 2 categories.
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Post by michael on Aug 29, 2018 18:45:27 GMT -5
From my position firmly planted on the center of the fence, I'd offer that mutually beneficial is perhaps the most accurate description of their respective worth to each other. Mookie scores more runs because he's on base for JD. JD has more RBI because Mookie and others are on base for him.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 30, 2018 7:45:34 GMT -5
From my position firmly planted on the center of the fence, I'd offer that mutually beneficial is perhaps the most accurate description of their respective worth to each other. Mookie scores more runs because he's on base for JD. JD has more RBI because Mookie and others are on base for him. Joey Votto has had something to say about lineup protection, and as far as I’m concerned anything Votto says about hitting is gospel: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-and-protection-up-front/So yeah, I think Mookie has protected Martinez more than the reverse. I don’t totally discount Martinez’s value as a second hitting coach or mentor for certain guys, but I think it’s a real stretch to say that value of that totally covers the fact that he contributes nothing on defense or on the bases.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 30, 2018 8:14:04 GMT -5
From my position firmly planted on the center of the fence, I'd offer that mutually beneficial is perhaps the most accurate description of their respective worth to each other. Mookie scores more runs because he's on base for JD. JD has more RBI because Mookie and others are on base for him. Joey Votto has had something to say about lineup protection, and as far as I’m concerned anything Votto says about hitting is gospel: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joey-votto-and-protection-up-front/So yeah, I think Mookie has protected Martinez more than the reverse. I don’t totally discount Martinez’s value as a second hitting coach or mentor for certain guys, but I think it’s a real stretch to say that value of that totally covers the fact that he contributes nothing on defense or on the bases. 100 years ago today the greatest hitter who ever lived was born. I know Ted Williams would have loved Joey Votto. I remember last month seeing that PBS special on Ted Williams and Joey Votto was a prominent voice on that special as he grew up a big Ted Williams fan. So what Votto says (to me) is right out of the Ted Williams handbook. But when I think of lineup protection, I don't necessarily think of the following hitter having a big impact on the previous hitter. In other words Xander Bogaerts doesn't make JD Martinez a better hitter. But I love the "lineup protection" of Xander Bogaerts batting after JD Martinez. To me lineup protection is having a guy who when the opposition chooses to pitch around a guy will be a guy who makes those pitchers pay. How many times this year have we seen pitchers avoid JDM to put an extra man on base for Xander who then promptly drives in multiple runs? That is lineup protection. It doesn't change what JDM is one iota, but it prevents the pitcher from pitching around Martinez AND getting away with it. A lesser hitter wouldn't stop JDM from being JDM, but it would result in key spots in a game where the pitchers pitch around JDM (which still happens because he IS JD Martinez) and get away with it. In 2018, thanks to Xander, these pitchers aren't getting away with it!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 30, 2018 8:26:05 GMT -5
Mookie firing up again added some adrenaline to his WAR - 8.5 on Fangraphs, 8.8 on ESPN. Opening up a lead on Trout (8.1)
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 30, 2018 11:43:38 GMT -5
Anyone know where Mookie stacks up all-time in WAR through age 25 season? Gotta think he is in the top 20-30 at least.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2018 13:38:09 GMT -5
b-Ref just altered all of WAR. Mookie fell from 9.0 to 8.4 overnight, and Trout went from 8.1 to 7.3.
Mookie now projects to 10.1 WAR. I wonder whether this is an actual fix or a bug that was introduced. It shouldn't really happen.
Edit: it appears to be a f***-up.
Mookie 2016, 70 RAA = 7.4 WAA, which is 9.5 R/W. I have the actual figure for MLB as 9.6, so 7.4 is right if the 70 was actually almost 70.5.
Mookie 2018 as of today, 69 RAA = 6.7 WAA, which is 10.3 R/W. The actual figure is 9.55. Somebody made a typo.
Using the correct R/W, he's at 8.9 WAR, which is a 10.7 pace.
Edit edit: they literally fixed it in the 5 minutes since I did those calculations! He's at 9.1 WAR and projects to 10.9.
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Post by trajanacc on Sept 2, 2018 13:51:29 GMT -5
I noticed that as well. Looks like only this year was tweaked, the WAR totals I checked from past seasons seem like they are the same.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2018 13:57:09 GMT -5
I noticed that as well. Looks like only this year was tweaked, the WAR totals I checked from past seasons seem like they are the same. All good now. I got halfway into typing up a comment for them.
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Post by voiceofreason on Sept 4, 2018 9:12:38 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 6, 2018 0:01:24 GMT -5
It's pretty bold to give all the credit for Mookie's season to JD. Maybe it was Cora who elevated the lineup. Maybe it was Swihart! Plus, JD's had a career year too. Why doesn't Mookie get bonus points for "elevating" JD? In the end, all we know for sure is what we see on the field, and Mookie has been JD's bat with exponentially better defense and baserunning. I don't think JDM is having a career year. I think he was every bit as good last season. JDM has been a help to Mookie as Mookie is always asking him for advice but if I had an MVP vote it would go to Mookie for his all around game, but speaking of which Jose Ramirez might wind up taking the award. He's been pretty awesome, too. He was very good last season, though it's colored a bit by Chase Field. As in Coors there's a dramatic home/away split that distorts the numbers. Here's what his 2017 looked like: Split | G | GS | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | TB | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | ROE | BAbip | tOPS+ | sOPS+ |
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Home | 60 | 59 | 253 | 217 | 52 | 77 | 16 | 2 | 27 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 62 | .355 | .439 | .820 | 1.259 | 178 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | .385 | 136 | 219 | Away | 59 | 58 | 236 | 215 | 33 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 18 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 66 | .251 | .309 | .558 | .867 | 120 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .271 | 63 | 132 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 9/5/2018. There's a dramatic difference in those numbers, with almost 400 points of OPS separating the two. Fenway has an effect also, but it's nowhere near as large. Here's what those splits look like this year: Split | G | GS | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | TB | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | ROE | BAbip | tOPS+ | sOPS+ |
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Home | 64 | 64 | 278 | 244 | 59 | 85 | 20 | 1 | 22 | 64 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 61 | .348 | .421 | .709 | 1.130 | 173 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | .387 | 114 | 201 | Away | 68 | 68 | 297 | 263 | 44 | 85 | 16 | 0 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 72 | .323 | .394 | .578 | .972 | 152 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .386 | 87 | 168 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original TableGenerated 9/5/2018. The difference here is more on the order of 150 points. There's a reason why the stats in places like Arizona and Colorado are so gaudy. It's all about the park and the altitude. That makes it hard to compare last year and this year. Regardless he's been a fantastic addition to the team and the 2017 numbers were no fluke.
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