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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 11, 2018 8:29:09 GMT -5
He's at 9.1 WAR and projects to 10.9. He's up to 9.6, and still projecting for 10.9, and 11.1 per 650 PA. Same historic rank among the comps.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 11, 2018 9:04:19 GMT -5
This is not focused specifically on Betts, but he's in the discussion. It's an excellent analysis from fivethirtyeight about Cleveland, and their approach to finding hitters. For the Indians it's all about contact, and more specifically about where contact happens. Very revealing about how launch angle takes care of itself if that contact is at the right place and with the right pitch... fivethirtyeight.com/features/cleveland-has-taken-the-fly-ball-revolution-to-the-next-level/
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Post by m1keyboots on Sept 11, 2018 9:31:32 GMT -5
What's crazy is Jose Ramirez is still going bonkers with the counting stats. The man will end up at a 40-35 season with 100/100 rbi-runs scored and close to 40 doubles with good defense at several positions for a first place club. I STILL feel Lindor is more valuable. There really are 3 legit MVP candidates this year and when people force Bregman and his insane stats at home in the second half into the discussion along with Lindor, JD, and obviously the incomparable Mike Trout the field is crazy for the MVP. Still feel like Mooks deserves it more though changes the game more than anyone in every facet of the game
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Post by telson13 on Sept 11, 2018 22:50:35 GMT -5
What's crazy is Jose Ramirez is still going bonkers with the counting stats. The man will end up at a 40-35 season with 100/100 rbi-runs scored and close to 40 doubles with good defense at several positions for a first place club. I STILL feel Lindor is more valuable. There really are 3 legit MVP candidates this year and when people force Bregman and his insane stats at home in the second half into the discussion along with Lindor, JD, and obviously the incomparable Mike Trout the field is crazy for the MVP. Still feel like Mooks deserves it more though changes the game more than anyone in every facet of the game It’s pretty amazing that there still look to be at least 3 9-WAR players, with an outside shot at 3 over 10 and 5 over 9, plus JDM challenging for a triple crown (and not a cheapie in any category). But yeah, as of right now Mookie deserves it for his incomparable excellence right across the board.
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Post by humanbeingbean on Sept 12, 2018 3:26:35 GMT -5
What's crazy is Jose Ramirez is still going bonkers with the counting stats. The man will end up at a 40-35 season with 100/100 rbi-runs scored and close to 40 doubles with good defense at several positions for a first place club. I STILL feel Lindor is more valuable. There really are 3 legit MVP candidates this year and when people force Bregman and his insane stats at home in the second half into the discussion along with Lindor, JD, and obviously the incomparable Mike Trout the field is crazy for the MVP. Still feel like Mooks deserves it more though changes the game more than anyone in every facet of the game It’s pretty amazing that there still look to be at least 3 9-WAR players, with an outside shot at 3 over 10 and 5 over 9, plus JDM challenging for a triple crown (and not a cheapie in any category). But yeah, as of right now Mookie deserves it for his incomparable excellence right across the board. This MVP race reminds me of Miguel Cabrera vs Trout a few years back - the classic counting stats, Triple Crown argument versus the new-age sabermetric crowd. The crazy thing is how underrated Mookie’s overall skill set is if you’re only analyzing things from an old school perspective. Their counting stats are relatively similar, but Mookie’s 9.1 fWAR is almost double Martinez’s 5.1, and the AVG/HR/RBI crowd would have you think they’re neck and neck in the MVP race. JD’s a sensational player and one of the best pure hitters in baseball, but there isn’t even really an argument for JD over Mookie - if anything, the MVP race is between Mookie, Bregman, Trout, Lindor, and Ramirez. Just goes to show how insanely elite Mookie is.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2018 6:20:02 GMT -5
Something that doesn't show up in many stats- how Mookie scored from 1st on a double to left last night. That was awesome and it's one of a few reasons why he's much more valuable than JDM.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 12, 2018 7:45:55 GMT -5
Something that doesn't show up in many stats- how Mookie scored from 1st on a double to left last night. That was awesome and it's one of a few reasons why he's much more valuable than JDM. Yeah but why does WAR have a baserunning component... if they have the same wRC+ then aren't they just equally valuable?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2018 9:53:49 GMT -5
Bregman, Martinez, and Betts rank 1-2-3 in MLB in Win Probability Added, but if you adjust for leverage and PA, it's Betts, Martinez, Bregman. Of the 256 players with 300 or more PA (8 guys per NL team and 9 guys per AL team), there's a clear top 13 in adjusted WPA rate. This is per 600 PA; guys marked * won't qualify for the batting title and hence for any rate stat leaderboards (I'd put 'em in italics if I could). I've rounded out the top 10 qualifiers (which shows the big gap).
W/600 Name Team Age 5.44 1. Mookie Betts Bos 25 5.32 2. J.D. Martinez Bos 30 5.08 3. Alex Bregman Hou 24 4.67 * Daniel Descalso Ari 31 4.37 4. Paul Goldschmidt Ari 30 4.30 * Juan Soto Was 19 4.27 5. Mike Trout LAA 26 4.18 6. Xander Bogaerts Bos 25 3.93 7. Matt Carpenter StL 32 3.93 * Shohei Ohtani LAA 23 3.92 * Gleyber Torres NYY 21 3.89 8. Andrew Benintendi Bos 23 3.86 9. Christian Yelich Mil 26 3.45 10. Jose Ramirez Cle 25 Eight of these guys play for just 3 teams. No one is age 27 through 29, and in fact none of the top 20 guys and 14 qualifiers are. Mitch Haniger (age 27) is 21st / 15th at 2.98.
The three guys who are younger than Benintendi have averaged 381 PA, versus' Benny's 601.
The Red Sox have only one other player who is above average: Brock Holt at 0.70. Edit: However, JBJ since June 24 is 3.85. Kinsler is 0.60 since May 29.
However, if you look at guys with less than 300 PA, you also have:
5.70 Steve Pearce (213 PA) (Edit!)
0.66 Hanley Ramirez 48.97 Brandon Phillips 20.93 Rick Porcello
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Post by humanbeingbean on Sept 12, 2018 12:05:21 GMT -5
Bregman, Martinez, and Betts rank 1-2-3 in MLB in Win Probability Added, but if you adjust for leverage and PA, it's Betts, Martinez, Bregman. Of the 256 players with 300 or more PA (8 guys per NL team and 9 guys per AL team), there's a clear top 13 in adjusted WPA rate. This is per 600 PA; guys marked * won't qualify for the batting title and hence for any rate stat leaderboards (I'd put 'em in italics if I could). I've rounded out the top 10 qualifiers (which shows the big gap).
W/600 Name Team Age 5.44 1. Mookie Betts Bos 25 5.32 2. J.D. Martinez Bos 30 5.08 3. Alex Bregman Hou 24 4.67 * Daniel Descalso Ari 31 4.37 4. Paul Goldschmidt Ari 30 4.30 * Juan Soto Was 19 4.27 5. Mike Trout LAA 26 4.18 6. Xander Bogaerts Bos 25 3.93 7. Matt Carpenter StL 32 3.93 * Shohei Ohtani LAA 23 3.92 * Gleyber Torres NYY 21 3.89 8. Andrew Benintendi Bos 23 3.86 9. Christian Yelich Mil 26 3.45 10. Jose Ramirez Cle 25 Eight of these guys play for just 3 teams. No one is age 27 through 29, and in fact none of the top 20 guys and 14 qualifiers are. Mitch Haniger (age 27) is 21st / 15th at 2.98.
The three guys who are younger than Benintendi have averaged 381 PA, versus' Benny's 601.
The Red Sox have only one other player who is above average: Brock Holt at 0.70. Edit: However, JBJ since June 24 is 3.85. Kinsler is 0.60 since May 29.
However, if you look at guys with less than 300 PA, you also have:
0.66 Hanley Ramirez 48.97 Brandon Phillips 20.93 Rick Porcello
AKA, the Angels might’ve snagged Ohtani, but we have the true pitcher-hitter threat.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2018 14:11:49 GMT -5
Bregman, Martinez, and Betts rank 1-2-3 in MLB in Win Probability Added, but if you adjust for leverage and PA, it's Betts, Martinez, Bregman. Of the 256 players with 300 or more PA (8 guys per NL team and 9 guys per AL team), there's a clear top 13 in adjusted WPA rate. This is per 600 PA; guys marked * won't qualify for the batting title and hence for any rate stat leaderboards (I'd put 'em in italics if I could). I've rounded out the top 10 qualifiers (which shows the big gap).
W/600 Name Team Age 5.44 1. Mookie Betts Bos 25 5.32 2. J.D. Martinez Bos 30 5.08 3. Alex Bregman Hou 24 4.67 * Daniel Descalso Ari 31 4.37 4. Paul Goldschmidt Ari 30 4.30 * Juan Soto Was 19 4.27 5. Mike Trout LAA 26 4.18 6. Xander Bogaerts Bos 25 3.93 7. Matt Carpenter StL 32 3.93 * Shohei Ohtani LAA 23 3.92 * Gleyber Torres NYY 21 3.89 8. Andrew Benintendi Bos 23 3.86 9. Christian Yelich Mil 26 3.45 10. Jose Ramirez Cle 25 Eight of these guys play for just 3 teams. No one is age 27 through 29, and in fact none of the top 20 guys and 14 qualifiers are. Mitch Haniger (age 27) is 21st / 15th at 2.98.
The three guys who are younger than Benintendi have averaged 381 PA, versus' Benny's 601.
The Red Sox have only one other player who is above average: Brock Holt at 0.70. Edit: However, JBJ since June 24 is 3.85. Kinsler is 0.60 since May 29.
However, if you look at guys with less than 300 PA, you also have:
5.70 Steve Pearce (213 PA) (Edit!)
0.66 Hanley Ramirez 48.97 Brandon Phillips 20.93 Rick Porcello
Pearce in fact leads all of MLB in adjWPA/PA, minimum 200 PA. You have to go down to Tyler White with 6.21 over 184 to best him. The Royals' Ryan Hearn has 7.46 over 117. Matt Holliday, 7.82 over 38, Nick Ciuffo of the Rays, 11.99 in 21, Rowdy Tellez of the Jays 14.64 in 20.
Here's the most delicious fact: the raw WPA leaderboard for players with fewer than 100 PA.
0.84 Luke Voit (98 PA)
0.75 Brandon Phillips (9 PA) 0.66 Kyle Farmer (73 PA)
0.60 Keon Broxton (80 PA)
Voit's got a 5.21 rate, which makes him the SSS Pearce. The only difference is that the Yankees are now playing him fill time, while we're still platooning Pearce with Moreland. But we're trying to get Mitch going again, and can afford to.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 12, 2018 23:40:35 GMT -5
Something that doesn't show up in many stats- how Mookie scored from 1st on a double to left last night. That was awesome and it's one of a few reasons why he's much more valuable than JDM. Remember that game against the Nats when he scored from second on an infield hit, hit a HR, and played great defense? Just a ferociously well-rounded player with terrific instincts.
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Post by huskies15 on Sept 13, 2018 9:24:16 GMT -5
One HR and two SBs away from a 30/30 season. Incredible year
-Side note, Jose Ramirez is two HRs and 8 SBs away from 40/40 which is basically unheard of now
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 16, 2018 9:41:14 GMT -5
The epic WAR battle between Mookie and Trout continue - ESPN data this AM shows 10 for Mookie, 9.4 for Trout.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 16, 2018 10:05:28 GMT -5
The epic WAR battle between Mookie and Trout continue - ESPN data this AM shows 10 for Mookie, 9.4 for Trout. Along with the bWAR above, fWAR: Mookie 9.2 Trout 9.1 bWARP: Trout 8.35 Mookie 8.04
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 21, 2018 0:53:20 GMT -5
Mookie's year has been awesome; and not just by the deeper stats that reveal how he's been the most valuable player in baseball so far. Mookie's also had a lot of impressive moments and feats within games that are just plain fun (if a bit arbitrary). Trying to remember some of them here: - He's had two!! 3-homer games this year (4 in his career now; Papi never did it once !) - He worked a 13-pitch at bat that ended in a grand slam - He hit the first walkoff homer of his career - He reached base in all 6 of his plate appearances in a game against the Yankees - He hit for the cycle (with a walk on top) Anything else of note I'm missing in 2018? So many special moments from him so far. now I can add going 4 - 5 with 2 doubles, a homer, and 5 RBI's in the division-clinching game!
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 21, 2018 13:17:34 GMT -5
I was playing just a minute ago on B-Ref, and came to the Red Sox franchise page: www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/Mookie Betts is already 21st all time in bWAR in franchise history, 0.1 behind Jimmie Foxx. So he will very, very likely finish his age 25 season as one of the 20 best players in Red Sox history.
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Post by natesp4 on Sept 21, 2018 14:20:10 GMT -5
At 10.2 bWAR his 2018 season is also officially a top 50 season of all-time.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 21, 2018 17:06:20 GMT -5
I was playing just a minute ago on B-Ref, and came to the Red Sox franchise page: www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/Mookie Betts is already 21st all time in bWAR in franchise history, 0.1 behind Jimmie Foxx. So he will very, very likely finish his age 25 season as one of the 20 best players in Red Sox history. The smile, the personality, the TALENT - he's the guy that must be resigned and be the face of the franchise for years to come. Hopefully he can get to #1 before all is said and done. Seems like he's happy with Cora and maybe more open to that long term contract than he was with Farrell. He seems much happier now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2018 19:43:11 GMT -5
He's at 9.1 WAR and projects to 10.9. He's up to 9.6, and still projecting for 10.9, and 11.1 per 650 PA. Same historic rank among the comps. He's now at 10.2 and after tonight will project to 10.8, but 11.2 per 650. IOW, since the last update he's actually playing even better (a bit), but of course he's lost some PT.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2018 20:41:26 GMT -5
At 10.2 bWAR his 2018 season is also officially a top 50 season of all-time. 46th, in fact. The list of players who have had a 10.8 WAR bseason, which is what he projects to:
Babe Ruth (6 times)
Carl Yastrzemski Rogers Hornsby Barry Bonds* (2)
Lou Gehrig Cal Ripken, Jr. Honus Wagner Mickey Mantle (2)
Ty Cobb
Willie Mays (2)
Stan Musial Joe Morgan Ted Williams
If he falls short ... the 10.7 list is the same guys, with an extra Cobb season. The 10.6 list is still the same, with an extra Bonds, Mays, and Williams. 10.5 adds Mike Trout and Robin Yount, and, if rounding up, Jimmie Foxx and Eddie Collins.
The only other players who have topped Mookie's current 10.2 are Alex Rodriguez, Lou Boudreau, and Sammy Sosa. So there have been 45 seasons better than Mookie's (so far), but by only 20 different plaayers. And two of those had help. We talk about how great Bonds was before he started his, umm, self-improvement program, but his best season through age 35 was 8.9.
Edit: Bonds didn't top 8.9 until he was 35. Typo!
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Sept 22, 2018 2:26:40 GMT -5
At 10.2 bWAR his 2018 season is also officially a top 50 season of all-time. 46th, in fact. The list of players who have had a 10.8 WAR bseason, which is what he projects to:
Babe Ruth (6 times)
Carl Yastrzemski Rogers Hornsby Barry Bonds* (2)
Lou Gehrig Cal Ripken, Jr. Honus Wagner Mickey Mantle (2)
Ty Cobb
Willie Mays (2)
Stan Musial Joe Morgan Ted Williams
If he falls short ... the 10.7 list is the same guys, with an extra Cobb season. The 10.6 list is still the same, with an extra Bonds, Mays, and Williams. 10.5 adds Mike Trout and Robin Yount, and, if rounding up, Jimmie Foxx and Eddie Collins.
The only other players who have topped Mookie's current 10.2 are Alex Rodriguez, Lou Boudreau, and Sammy Sosa. So there have been 45 seasons better than Mookie's (so far), but by only 20 different plaayers. And two of those had help. We talk about how great Bonds was before he started his, umm, self-improvement program, but his best season through age 25 was 8.9.
[br Literally awesome information. Wow. He isn’t going to get worse any time soon. I hope they can come to an extension agreement that allows him a better life than he ever dreamed of, and allows the Sox to maintain a winning team around him. I doubt he would be happy going to a rival, especially one which is not a winner; and he seems too smart to put himself in Mike Trout’s position, no matter the payday. He is already one of the pillars of arguably the best baseball team of this century.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 25, 2018 9:53:57 GMT -5
All the 10.0 or better bWAR seasons for players 25 and younger. ** marks a projection based on a current total of 8.1. This is decent company.
Player bWAR Year Age Tm Lg G PA Babe Ruth 11.9 1920 25 NYY AL 142 616 Lou Gehrig 11.8 1927 24 NYY AL 155 717 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1957 25 NYY AL 144 623 **Mookie Betts 11.3 2018 25 BOS AL 139 640 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 NYY AL 150 652 Rogers Hornsby 10.8 1921 25 STL NL 154 674 Ty Cobb 10.7 1911 24 DET AL 146 654 Willie Mays 10.6 1954 23 NYG NL 151 641 Ted Williams 10.6 1942 23 BOS AL 150 671 Ted Williams 10.6 1941 22 BOS AL 143 606 Ty Cobb 10.6 1910 23 DET AL 140 590 Mike Trout 10.5 2016 24 LAA AL 159 681 Mike Trout 10.5 2012 20 LAA AL 139 639 Jimmie Foxx 10.5 1932 24 PHA AL 154 702 Eddie Collins 10.5 1910 23 PHA AL 153 658 Alex Rodriguez 10.4 2000 24 SEA AL 148 672 Tris Speaker 10.1 1912 24 BOS AL 153 675 Bryce Harper 10.0 2015 22 WSN NL 153 654 Cal Ripken 10.0 1984 23 BAL AL 162 716 This is also interesting: WAR/650 PA.
Player W/650 Year Age Babe Ruth 12.6 1920 25 Mickey Mantle 11.8 1957 25 Ty Cobb 11.7 1910 23 **Mookie Betts 11.5 2018 25 Ted Williams 11.4 1941 22 Mickey Mantle 11.3 1956 24 Willie Mays 10.7 1954 23 Lou Gehrig 10.7 1927 24 Mike Trout 10.7 2012 20 Ty Cobb 10.6 1911 24 Rogers Hornsby 10.4 1921 25 Eddie Collins 10.4 1910 23 Ted Williams 10.3 1942 23 Alex Rodriguez 10.1 2000 24 Mike Trout 10.0 2016 24 The game was so different in Cobb's time that I think he belongs as a footnote. That leaves the more impressive seasons (if Mookie keeps this up) as the legendary Ruth 1920 and Teddy 1941, plus the ought-to-be legendary Mantle '57. Considering how much tougher the game is now, I'll take projected Mookie over Mantle '56.
You could also say Trout 2012, just because of his age, but it proved to be his best 25-and-younger season, with the suggestion that he benefited from opponent inexperience and underestimation based on his bad trial the year before.
I did this breakdown more than a month ago. Mookie has maintained his 11.5 bWAR / 600 PA and still projects to have the third-best age 25 and younger season of all time. I'm very skeptical that Cobb was actually +7 runs on the bases in 2010, which is what he's credited with by Sean Smith's estimate; there's some evidence that CS totals were higher in the old days, before anyone thought to count them. We do have data for 1912 and 1914, and he was +2 and +3 in those years.
He has of course lost PT, He's at 10.7 now and projects to add 0.4 bWAR to finish at 11.1. However, if he keeps hitting like he has the last three games (10/16, 4 2B, 3 HR, for a 1.438 SA ... with only one out on a ball in play!), he could pass the two Mantle seasons. Mookie just passed the extra Cobb season, so with 5 games left, that is the list of greater seasons. At his current pace, he'll pass Morgan and Williams and probably Musial, as well as Mays' second greatest season. Of the three players who made this list at age 25 or younger, two had at least one other such season, Ruth and Mantle -- although Mantle had his at ages 24 and 25. There's a chance this is Mookie's greatest season, but if it proves not to be, the company he joins will be Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle. I think both of those guys were bigger.
Final fun fact: Mookie is now at .355 / .453 / .629 in September. Three games ago he was at .261 / .407 / .348.
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Post by trajanacc on Sept 25, 2018 10:37:01 GMT -5
With 35.0 career bWAR, Mookie now sits at #20 all-time for players through their age-25 season.
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Post by azblue on Sept 25, 2018 10:48:38 GMT -5
Anyone who wants to have a chuckle should read the first two pages of this thread.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 25, 2018 12:30:41 GMT -5
Anyone who wants to have a chuckle should read the first two pages of this thread. WOW - that makes for some great reading, humble pie, crow eating, etc....a really, really great read! I just went through the first three pages.
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