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6/27-6/30 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Jun 27, 2013 7:24:15 GMT -5
6/27 Red Sox (LHP Jon Lester 7-4 4.57) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Chien-Ming Wang 1-0 2.18) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI6/28 Red Sox (LHP Felix Doubront 4-3 4.33) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Josh Johnson 1-2 4.60) 7:10 pm ET, NESN/WEEI6/29 Red Sox (RHP Allen Webster 0-2 11.25) vs. Blue Jays (RHP Esmil Rogers 3-3 3.46) 4:05 pm ET, NESN/WEEI6/30 Red Sox (RHP Ryan Dempster 5-8 4.15) vs. Blue Jays (LHP Mark Buehrle 4-5 4.73) 1:35 pm ET, NESN/WEEIMLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsWeatherSeries Thread Disclaimer: The SoxProspects Moderators will be somewhat liberal in policing the Red Sox "Series" Threads. Some of the Ground Rules are applied loosely in here, as we understand that there is a tendency to want to react (or overreact) to every play of a Sox game with one line reactionary posts. Those posts are okay in the Red Sox Series threads to a point - we certainly appreciate the passion. Just try not to overdo it, and try to maintain some semblance of reason. In addition, please don't let those type of posts spill over to other more substantive threads, where they may be deleted. -The Management
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2013 8:09:07 GMT -5
I remain baffled that the organization thinks Webster will just wake up and magically figure everything out, especially at the major league level. I retain a less than dental floss thin strand of hope he proves me completely wrong and does just that. I'd still feel like a win is more possible if they were pitching Aceves instead. Also I thought Webster was slated for Friday and they were giving Felix an extra day of rest?
Regardless, need to win 3 here, which means time for Lester to stop dicking around staring at umpires and start hitting the mitt wherever the catcher holds it.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2013 8:14:51 GMT -5
I remain baffled that the organization thinks Webster will just wake up and magically figure everything out, especially at the major league level. I retain a less than dental floss thin strand of hope he proves me completely wrong and does just that. I'd still feel like a win is more possible if they were pitching Aceves instead. Also I thought Webster was slated for Friday and they were giving Felix an extra day of rest? Regardless, need to win 3 here, which means time for Lester to stop dicking around staring at umpires and start hitting the mitt wherever the catcher holds it. This AL East race could end up being a 5 team scramble. Agree. Have to give your team the best option to win every game. Doubront can pitch Friday. He last pitched on Sunday at Detroit 5 innings. Aceves can pitch Saturday. Very bizarre. Maybe swings/misses is some sort of playoff tie-breaker we can fall back on.
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2013 8:44:11 GMT -5
I remain baffled that the organization thinks Webster will just wake up and magically figure everything out, especially at the major league level. I retain a less than dental floss thin strand of hope he proves me completely wrong and does just that. I'd still feel like a win is more possible if they were pitching Aceves instead. Also I thought Webster was slated for Friday and they were giving Felix an extra day of rest? Regardless, need to win 3 here, which means time for Lester to stop dicking around staring at umpires and start hitting the mitt wherever the catcher holds it. Webster has better strikeout and walk numbers than Aceves this year, as well as far better stuff and upside. Aceves has been lucky on balls in play, and it's all smoke and mirrors with him. I am far more confident in Webster than I am in Aceves. EDIT: Here are their stats as starting pitchers so far this year: link
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 27, 2013 9:00:43 GMT -5
I agree, Webster needs to get a chance to see if he can settle in. This is more an investment for the second half. If you can get Webster to a place where his mental approach matches his stuff you could have yourself a number 2 or 3 starter. Aceves is what he is and though he's been great he's been playing with fire every start.
If Webster can't prove he's ready for this level then Rubby needs to get a shot sooner or later.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2013 9:03:34 GMT -5
Jmei, I actually agree with you, but I'm going to play devil's advocate for a moment. I'm not sure Aceves has been especially lucky on balls in play - a .295 BABIP and 18.8% HR/FB ratio aren't out of control. Aceves low ERA comes more from an unsustainably high strand rate. Webster's balls in play numbers are so extreme that it's hard to read anything into them. Pitchers who just aren't good enough are always going to underperform their peripherals, because their pitches are too hittable - resulting in extreme home run rates and numbers on balls in play. Also, Webster's K/9 rate is inflated because it's taking him a ton of batters to get through each inning. His K rate of 20.3% isn't all that special.
As Webster has allowed 6 home runs in 51 1/3 innings with Pawtucket, it's possible that the long ball is going to continue to give him trouble. Still, it's not like there's an obviously better answer, and getting Webster some major league innings isn't such a disaster.
On the bright side - against Detroit, Webster threw 82 pitches, and 20 were swinging strikes. For comparison, Aceves has 19 total in his last three major league starts (70 batters faced).
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Post by Don Caballero on Jun 27, 2013 9:22:30 GMT -5
SSS, but the Jays Wang has surprisingly small numbers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 27, 2013 9:28:46 GMT -5
IIRC, they said the reason they were sticking with Webster is to stop the constant shuffling of the past couple weeks and let everyone settle in.
If Webster isn't stellar in this start, they'll probably make a switch, but they wanted to give him a shot at a major league start that wasn't preceded by an unexpected call-up days before. Can't say I blame them. It's not like the starters just do nothing for the 4 days between starts - they throw bullpens, side sessions, etc. This gives him a chance to do that all at one level, which he hasn't done in his MLB starts this year.
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Post by semperfisox on Jun 27, 2013 9:31:47 GMT -5
Give the kid Webster a chance. Looks like he's been nervous, let him settle down.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 27, 2013 9:40:49 GMT -5
SSS, but the Jays Wang has surprisingly small numbers. That is true, but the outs have been long and hard. We just need a little luck and those will find a hole. so juvenile...I know
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2013 10:10:06 GMT -5
I remain baffled that the organization thinks Webster will just wake up and magically figure everything out, especially at the major league level. I retain a less than dental floss thin strand of hope he proves me completely wrong and does just that. I'd still feel like a win is more possible if they were pitching Aceves instead. Also I thought Webster was slated for Friday and they were giving Felix an extra day of rest? Regardless, need to win 3 here, which means time for Lester to stop dicking around staring at umpires and start hitting the mitt wherever the catcher holds it. Webster has better strikeout and walk numbers than Aceves this year, as well as far better stuff and upside. Aceves has been lucky on balls in play, and it's all smoke and mirrors with him. I am far more confident in Webster than I am in Aceves. EDIT: Here are their stats as starting pitchers so far this year: link There is no doubt Aceves had a crappy month of April. However, let's look at his 3 starts since then. 3-0 1.06 era 17IP 14H 3R 3ER 10BB 9 k 0hbp WHIP 1.41 Webster's 3 Starts 0-2 11.25 ERA 12IP 19H 16R 15ER 6BB 12K 1 hbp Whip 2.17 Do you want to win or lose? Like the commercial says. It's not complicated. The kid doesn't have enough command to beat a good major league team right now. How can you possibly be more confident in Webster? Based on what?? Ace's early season struggles. His career w/l record is 30-14 with a 3.70 era and a 1.204 whip.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2013 10:20:41 GMT -5
IIRC, they said the reason they were sticking with Webster is to stop the constant shuffling of the past couple weeks and let everyone settle in. This seems to be working rather well for Aceves MLB performance. And Webster hadn't "settled in" in Pawtucket, so why do they think he can do so at the MLB level where the players are more patient and feast off mistakes? I want Webster to succeed - but preferably in AAA first. He has been dramatically inconsistent there so far. (and I think he had 9 3-ball counts in his last start despite all the swing and misses). Big picture - this is a division, and a wild card race, that may all be decided by a single game. Sox are the lead dog right now but only by 2 games in the Loss column. If the Sox were up 7 games, I'd be all for Webster going 3 times through the rotation. If they took the first 3 from Toronto and this was a spot start, I could at least rationalize it, unless NYY, BAL, and TAM won all 3 of their games over the weekend - then I'd STILL think it was stupid. But neither of these realities exist. I abhor decisions that have a high probability of throwing a win right out the window unless you absolutely have to do that (i.e. letting some guy eat innings in a lopsided loss because you want to save the pen for tomorrow). I hope Webster throws a no-no against Toronto this weekend and makes a fool of me. But this decision makes zero sense to me. Let Webster show he can be consistently successful at AAA - not perfect but consistent - and THEN bring him up.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2013 10:32:52 GMT -5
In yesterday's thread we opined how do the Yankees always seem to stay alive. Like a vampire. Just can't kill them unless you drive a stake thru their heart. I loathe them as much as anybody. Well, except for maybe Guidas. But, let's just say we all hate em. The Yankees play to win the game. Egos checked at the door. Play the hot hand. Hughes and Joba you're in the pen. Keep running Small and Chacon out there as long as they are winning. Not let's move Bard to starter. He might be able to make more money in the long term. After we traded our closer. Oops, I forgot. We don't need one of them either. Let's run Webster out there again. He gets a lot of swings and misses. Do the results count for Boston? Not always. Let's stroke their egos.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2013 10:39:38 GMT -5
There is no doubt Aceves had a crappy month of April. However, let's look at his 3 starts since then. 3-0 1.06 era 17IP 14H 3R 3ER 10BB 9 k 0hbp WHIP 1.41 Webster's 3 Starts 0-2 11.25 ERA 12IP 19H 16R 15ER 6BB 12K 1 hbp Whip 2.17 You're really more confident in the guy who's walked more than he's struck out? I mean honestly, I don't really trust either one of these guys, but Webster at least has upside. Aceves is basically just a disposable arm who's happened to string a few competent starts together. I wonder if they just want Webster working with Farrell for an extended stretch. That seemed to have positive results in spring training for whatever it's worth.
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2013 10:43:38 GMT -5
Complain about Webster's command all you want, but he still had fewer walks + HBPs per nine innings than Aceves had over their respective past three starts (Webster: 5.25, Aceves: 5.30), with nearly twice as many strikeouts (Webster: 9 K/9, Aceves: 4.76 K/9). The only reason Aceves has had better results in his past few starts is strand rate, BABIP, and home run rate, all of which are highly variable in small sample sizes.
Obviously Webster is not a polished product at this point, especially with regards to his command. But the faith some of you are showing in Aceves is wildly misplaced.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2013 10:47:31 GMT -5
There is no doubt Aceves had a crappy month of April. However, let's look at his 3 starts since then. 3-0 1.06 era 17IP 14H 3R 3ER 10BB 9 k 0hbp WHIP 1.41 Webster's 3 Starts 0-2 11.25 ERA 12IP 19H 16R 15ER 6BB 12K 1 hbp Whip 2.17 You're really more confident in the guy who's walked more than he's struck out? I mean honestly, I don't really trust either one of these guys, but Webster at least has upside. Aceves is basically just a disposable arm who's happened to string a few competent starts together. I wonder if they just want Webster working with Farrell for an extended stretch. That seemed to have positive results in spring training for whatever it's worth. I love how you picked out the walks and ignored how many hits Webster has given up. 5 Hr's in 12 innings. Yeah, let's roll with that guy. Or, was he a victim of bad luck? Veteran pitchers will pitch around batters and give up the odd walk to face a batter they think they can handle better.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2013 10:47:41 GMT -5
In yesterday's thread we opined how do the Yankees always seem to stay alive. Like a vampire. Just can't kill them unless you drive a stake thru their heart. I loathe them as much as anybody. Well, except for maybe Guidas. But, let's just say we all hate em. The Yankees play to win the game. Egos checked at the door. Play the hot hand. Hughes and Joba you're in the pen. Keep running Small and Chacon out there as long as they are winning. Not let's move Bard to starter. He might be able to make more money in the long term. After we traded our closer. Oops, I forgot. We don't need one of them either. Let's run Webster out there again. He gets a lot of swings and misses. Do the results count for Boston? Not always. Let's stroke their egos. Oh stop. Everyone and their brother wanted Aceves DFA'ed, like, five minutes ago. But now he's the key to success? Also, the Yankees are the worst team in the AL East right now, and they don't project to get much better. Oh, but a 47 year old man with a bum ankle might come back to save the day for them by playing shortstop for them as that is apparently his birthright. Egos checked at the door....
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2013 10:50:24 GMT -5
Jmei, I actually agree with you, but I'm going to play devil's advocate for a moment. I'm not sure Aceves has been especially lucky on balls in play - a .295 BABIP and 18.8% HR/FB ratio aren't out of control. Aceves low ERA comes more from an unsustainably high strand rate. Webster's balls in play numbers are so extreme that it's hard to read anything into them. Pitchers who just aren't good enough are always going to underperform their peripherals, because their pitches are too hittable - resulting in extreme home run rates and numbers on balls in play. Also, Webster's K/9 rate is inflated because it's taking him a ton of batters to get through each inning. His K rate of 20.3% isn't all that special. As Webster has allowed 6 home runs in 51 1/3 innings with Pawtucket, it's possible that the long ball is going to continue to give him trouble. Still, it's not like there's an obviously better answer, and getting Webster some major league innings isn't such a disaster. On the bright side - against Detroit, Webster threw 82 pitches, and 20 were swinging strikes. For comparison, Aceves has 19 total in his last three major league starts (70 batters faced). All fair points, but I don't think Webster's a guy who is just not good enough to apply the most basic of sabremetric principles. He's also never had problems with home runs before this year and doesn't scout like the kind of pitcher who is especially hittable, as evidenced by his propensity for swings-and-misses. His strikeout rate is slightly inflated when measured by K/9 but it's still light-years ahead of Aceves'.
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2013 10:53:26 GMT -5
I love how you picked out the walks and ignored how many hits Webster has given up. 5 Hr's in 12 innings. Yeah, let's roll with that guy. Or, was he a victim of bad luck? Veteran pitchers will pitch around batters and give up the odd walk to face a batter they think they can handle better. I mean, if you really think three starts' worth of batted ball data is predictive and that veteran know-how allows a pitcher to succeed despite walking more guys than he strikes out, we don't really have a lot to say to one another.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jun 27, 2013 10:56:05 GMT -5
I love how you picked out the walks and ignored how many hits Webster has given up. 5 Hr's in 12 innings. Yeah, let's roll with that guy. Or, was he a victim of bad luck? Veteran pitchers will pitch around batters and give up the odd walk to face a batter they think they can handle better. 5 homers in 12 innings? Yes, that's at least partially luck. And say whatever you like about veteran pitchers, but walking more than you strike out isn't even remotely sustainable. And actually, your crafty vets tend to not walk ANYONE. Look at late-career Maddux, Moyer, Schilling, Hudson, Clemens... seriously, almost anyone. If you don't have great stuff, walking a lot of guys on top of that is not your path to success.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2013 10:59:21 GMT -5
In yesterday's thread we opined how do the Yankees always seem to stay alive. Like a vampire. Just can't kill them unless you drive a stake thru their heart. I loathe them as much as anybody. Well, except for maybe Guidas. But, let's just say we all hate em. The Yankees play to win the game. Egos checked at the door. Play the hot hand. Hughes and Joba you're in the pen. Keep running Small and Chacon out there as long as they are winning. Not let's move Bard to starter. He might be able to make more money in the long term. After we traded our closer. Oops, I forgot. We don't need one of them either. Let's run Webster out there again. He gets a lot of swings and misses. Do the results count for Boston? Not always. Let's stroke their egos. Oh stop. Everyone and their brother wanted Aceves DFA'ed, like, five minutes ago. But now he's the key to success? Also, the Yankees are the worst team in the AL East right now, and they don't project to get much better. Oh, but a 47 year old man with a bum ankle might come back to save the day for them by playing shortstop for them as that is apparently his birthright. Egos checked at the door.... How did you work Jeter into my comment? You are allowed to mention him by name. They've faced more adversity this year than we did last year. I don't see them going 69-93. I know they've got a great closer. But, I've learned that closers don't matter. How do they do it?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 27, 2013 11:02:41 GMT -5
I love how you picked out the walks and ignored how many hits Webster has given up. 5 Hr's in 12 innings. Yeah, let's roll with that guy. Or, was he a victim of bad luck? Veteran pitchers will pitch around batters and give up the odd walk to face a batter they think they can handle better. I mean, if you really think three starts' worth of batted ball data is predictive and that veteran know-how allows a pitcher to succeed despite walking more guys than he strikes out, we don't really have a lot to say to one another. I also mentioned Aceves career stats. Yet, you're the one who ignored them. Aceves has 359 2/3 innings pitched in NY and Boston. Why are we ignoring his track record?
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Post by jmei on Jun 27, 2013 11:11:58 GMT -5
(1) Most of that track record was in relief. Aceves' career marks as a starting pitcher: 77.2 IP, 4.87 K/9, 4.87 BB/9, 4.29 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 5.49 xFIP. Not so good.
(2) Even looking at his combined career stats, he's been lucky to outperform his peripherals. 4.38 FIP, 4.55 xFIP. The guy is just not a very good pitcher.
(3) Like I alluded to earlier, if you believe that small-sample-size ERA results based on abnormally low BABIP is more predictive than advanced metrics, we're speaking two different languages here and continued discussion is unlikely to be productive.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 27, 2013 11:15:15 GMT -5
More importantly, the Red Sox have longer term goals than winning on Friday. Allen Webster is close to ready, and major league reps will do him some good. If it backfires and the Red Sox go on miss the playoffs by one game that would be unfortunate, but it would also be unfair to blame it solely Webster getting lit up by the Blue Jays on a Friday in late June.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jun 27, 2013 11:15:53 GMT -5
Time to cool off those Jays. They have been on a roll. Looks like anyone of the 5 teams could finish anywhere 1 to 5. Makes for an exciting second half. I was one that was sure the Sox would be lucky to win 87 games. This is more fun.
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