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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 28, 2022 16:23:29 GMT -5
I don't recall where I saw it (it may have been on SP.com), but it showed how much extra ground the hitter/base runner can cover on his way to first base based on the strength or weakness of the SS's arm. I was surprised how much extra ground the runner can cover if the throw is just a bit slower. In my mind, it made a pretty strong case for keeping Story at 2B, where he was excellent this year when he was in the lineup.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 28, 2022 9:57:45 GMT -5
middlebrooks makes a fine broadcaster. Going to miss Eck a lot. I wonder if anyone is ever going to ask him about all of the media members he blocked on Twitter (not me FWIW) now that he's a member of the media. Why should anyone care? I certainly don't. It's his account. He can do what he wants with it.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 27, 2022 22:01:33 GMT -5
I disagree with people who say JDM and Nasty Nate had little to no trade value at the salaries they make. But even if that's true, the RS could have subsidized one or both of them to move them.
JDM's AAV is $22M. Moving him would have saved a third of that, so north of $7M, or enough to get under the LTT. If they had no takers for that, they could have thrown in a couple million $$$ and still gotten under. I can't believe that not a single contender would have found him attractive under a scenario like that.
I just hope they get under next year and not put it off until 2024.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 27, 2022 21:54:47 GMT -5
Pedro & Manny can handle a game together How about a three-man booth? Add in Schilling. Now that would be entertaining!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 27, 2022 21:52:05 GMT -5
BABIP now likes Casas. MVP, here we come !! Seems like a great bet to be in the top three for ROY next year. That'll get us an extra pick in the 2024 draft.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 27, 2022 20:01:17 GMT -5
I totally don't understand playing the IF in on Mullins. You have a three-run lead. Just get an out. Now the run scores and they have speed on at 1B.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 26, 2022 22:18:50 GMT -5
Kaleb Ort congrats on making the show and it was cool seeing you hit 101 but I think we're done here Remember Pat Light? He could put on a smoke show, too. He still had trouble getting guys out.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 26, 2022 21:55:31 GMT -5
If some team wants to trade us their 9th round pick from last year's draft to keep Seabold on the 40 this offseason, then sign me up In reading up on Seabold since we acquired him from the Phils, I never understood his ranking. Ditto for Winckowski. Limiting contact = limiting hits = limiting runs. Not complicated. Neither of those guys has the filth, the gas, the cheese, the hair - whatever Eck term you want to use - to dominate hitters and ring up K's. Now, young Mr. Bello? That's a different story entirely.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 26, 2022 21:41:13 GMT -5
The Jays just walked the MFYs off on a single by Vlad Guerrero. As he walked away from the scrum, he was pointing to himself and yelling, "My house! My house! My house!" Funny.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 26, 2022 21:36:08 GMT -5
Just turned it on and saw the score. My immediate reaction was, "Wow, we're even losing to the crap Orioles." Then I remembered they're actually better than us now. In fact, a lot better.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2022 19:45:22 GMT -5
I'd say that Judge has declined and has warning track power, except that that ball didn't even make it to the warning track.😎
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2022 18:28:35 GMT -5
Everyone seemed pretty happy to let Ottavino walk after last season, but they really miss him. He’d probably be the best relief arm on the team this year. And he signed with the Mets for $4m(much less than they are paying James Paxton this year). That has been an underrated bad personnel move, perhaps because there have been so many bad personnel moves. Put Ottavino in the BP in place of Brasier and you'd have more W's.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2022 18:26:42 GMT -5
Am I allowed to say I was happy with the Judge double?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 25, 2022 12:50:21 GMT -5
I see CB using his payroll flexibility (though it's not as much flexibility as we might think, especially if he re-ups X and Devers) to build a deeper roster. He'll try to give Cora opportunities for platoon advantages.
And he will of course try to do this with short-term contacts.
That screams out for Pederson, who has a 140 wRC+ vs. RHP this year and 125 for his career.
Under this model, he'd still need a RHH 1B-OF type and a LHH OF to platoon with Refsnyder.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 24, 2022 21:19:36 GMT -5
This kid will be with the big club soon. I expect to see him next year. Anything he can do for the pitching staff will help. Relief role in August and September, as they make sure to carefully manage his innings. Then a starting role in 2024 when he'll team with Bello to give us two young, impact rotation pieces.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 24, 2022 21:13:20 GMT -5
C’mon. First, that remains to be seen beyond a short sample. Second, they didn’t get Johnny Bench. If there is a marginal upgrade, no one is going to look back and say “mission accomplished” to 2022. Diekman also cost a pretty decent part of that sliver they went over by… so even getting a good return for him is still making lemonade from lemons. Like there are people who claim to have known the future and that the Red Sox should have sold everyone at the trade deadline because their 30% playoff odds per fangraphs were actually 0% because the team was flawed in its very essence.
A few thoughts on the PS odds at the deadline: - Even if one believes they had a 30 percent chance at the deadline (actually 28.8 percent on Aug. 1, but it's unclear to me whether that's at the end of play on Aug. 1 or the beginning of play), it was still unwise to pass up a chance to enhance their chances in future years when they'll have a better team. That 28.8 percent is just not enough for me.
- The 28.8 percent represented the chance of just qualifying for the PS. The FG crunch gave them a just a 5.6 percent chance of winning a DS, a 2.3 percent chance of winning the CS and a .8 percent chance of winning the WS. For me, those odds count more than the chances of making the PS.
- The FG odds are not Gospel. It's perfectly Ok for those of us who watch the team every night to have thought they were not playoff bound. It's also perfectly Ok for others to have had the opposite feeling at the deadline - that the 28.8 percent undersold their chances.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 24, 2022 20:44:30 GMT -5
C’mon. First, that remains to be seen beyond a short sample. Second, they didn’t get Johnny Bench. If there is a marginal upgrade, no one is going to look back and say “mission accomplished” to 2022. Diekman also cost a pretty decent part of that sliver they went over by… so even getting a good return for him is still making lemonade from lemons. All I'm saying is that it does not take a whole lot of analytical acumen to understand the logic of the Red Sox' approach at the trade deadline, whether one liked that approach or those particular moves or not. Yet it's proven to have gone over the heads of an awful lot of people.
Like there are people who claim to have known the future and that the Red Sox should have sold everyone at the trade deadline because their 30% playoff odds per fangraphs were actually 0% because the team was flawed in its very essence. I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about the way this mlbtraderumors article, for instance, expresses confusion about an approach that just wasn't that confusing, and seems even less confusing given what we've learned since the beginning of August about Vazquez' and McGuire's respective value.
The concept hasn't gone over anyone's head. We all understand the idea of trying to use the deadline to improve the current team and add pieces for the future. Those of us who are critical of it just thought it was unlikely to work, that there was a good chance we'd end up with nothing - no PS spot, no significant adds for the future, and no escape from the LT. Unfortunately, that's exactly what happened. I agree with manfred when he says let's wait to see what we have in McGuire. He looks like he could be a nice, low-salaried piece as the strong side of a C platoon the next few years. But it's early to say we've "learned" what his value is after 29 games.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 24, 2022 20:27:15 GMT -5
Casas has a 96 wRC+ despite a .071 BABIP 🤣 101 wRC+ now... officially above average!
I don't think it's crazy to hope that he, Bello, and Sale can combine for like 8 WAR next season. That improvement alone would put them right into the heart of a playoff race.
That would be four each for Bello and Casas, right? Obvious (though good-natured) sarcasm, but I'm done waiting for Chris Sale to contribute during his contract. Anything he gives us in '23 or '24 is an unexpected bonus, IMO.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 23, 2022 9:11:44 GMT -5
I'm assuming we all agree that number 62 will happen during this series. With the way this season is gone there is zero chance it doesn't happen. A little sad Eovaldi isn't around to have one of those "three bad pitches lead to 3 hr and 5 runs" runs to help him out. I'm honestly fine with Judge getting the Roid-less Record. And since a Yankee already holds it, no sweat there.This is exactly where I am. I'm much more bugged about him possibly winning the TC. It was bad enough when Miggy Cabrera won it in 2012. I used to enjoy seeing stories that said, "Nobody has won a Triple Crown since 1967 when Boston's Carl Yastrzemski did it." Now an MFY may win it? Shoot me.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 22, 2022 21:55:30 GMT -5
Bright spots:
- SFG beat the Rox, 3-0. Good for our draft position. - Ort threw only two pitches. He'll be fresh for tomorrow and could give us multiple innings if Hill gets knocked out early.
I can't think of anything else.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 22, 2022 21:37:54 GMT -5
Praise the Lord for keeping that one in the park. I thought the Fox announcer was going to pass out in joy as that ball was in the air.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 22, 2022 21:32:27 GMT -5
This is all set for a Judge Walk off home run..Alice in wonderland. Retire the first guy and then walk Judge.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 22, 2022 21:31:36 GMT -5
Brasier got quite a high ERA. He has a low FIP, which shows that advanced stats have their limitations.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 22, 2022 21:22:20 GMT -5
How many blown saves is it this year for us? So tired of being Brasiered this year. True, and I never had that doomsday feeling with Sawamura. I'd much rather have him in a game like this. Keeping Brasier over him remains a mystery to me.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 22, 2022 20:51:22 GMT -5
I like Dugo but his hitting fourth says a lot about the weakness of this lineup. He has value as a lengthen-the-order guy hitting seventh and playing decent defense in RF.
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