SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 16, 2022 22:00:57 GMT -5
i can dig it. Barnes has always been enigmatic though, so I don' think we will ever truly know with him I was definitely guilty of dreaming of a Barnes/Ranaudo top of the rotation back in the day (although both grew up MFY fans). Barnes has had a nice career though and he’s easy to root for Those two guys were prospects at the same time as Ruby de la Rosa, Alan Webster and Henry Owens. Then we drafted Trey Ball in 2013, guaranteeing a future rotation that would be better the 1971 Orioles! I recall that the conversation on here was about how we were loaded with future SP, but hurting for hitting prospects. By the time we went on our run of three straight division titles and a WS championship we were loaded with homegrown offensive talent and relying on imported SP - Sale, Price, Porcello, E-Rod - and a closer who came from another org. What a wacky sport.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 15, 2022 13:42:30 GMT -5
You can use xwOBA because in comparison to past years, it has declined. He wasn't using xwOBA to question the legitimacy of his wOBA, he was using it in comparison to past xwOBA. I think everyone agrees all of this could just be noise, and Xander very well tap back into his power next year, but there are many fair places to question if his offensive performance this year is sustainable(statistics I mentioned in my previous post, barrel%, crazy high average on groundballs). I think I should end this by saying I want the Red Sox to resign Xander. Beyond just being a fan and wanting to extend a great player, I don't think you could get a shortstop who could match or exceed Xander's value at a lower cost. I do think he'll bounce back next year(albeit return to the mean defensively). Just think it is important to note the areas for caution in his play this year. I think you give hin way too much credit. When he keeps just posting his xwOBA only, that's exactly the sense I get. He thinks the wOBA is luck, yet as I pointed out xwOBA has never done a good job of measuring Bogaerts. So it's the last stat you should be using. Even then before his recent cold streak there was no decline in his wOBA, even now it's minor. He could easily finish the season on par with the last few years. The only stat that shows Bogaerts with a massive decline is xwOBA, it basically shows him as an average hitter. I do agree there are areas that are fair to question, repeatedly just posting his xwOBA as if that's the holy grail stat isn't one of them. I say this as a guy who would have traded him and did a fire sale. Just catching up with this now. First, I have no idea what you mean in saying that "he keps posting" X's xwOBA. From what I can tell by quickly reviewing my posts and using the control-F function, I last mentioned it two nights ago. Before that, you'd have to go back to Aug. 10 and that was in a quick response to a poster who pointed out that X has benefitted from a high BABIP this year. I'm sure I've made more juvenile jokes about Reese McGuire than mentions of X's xwOBA the past five days. I also never said xwOBA is the only stat that counts and I certainly never used the term "holy grail." But it's also not a meaningless stat unless you want to totally dismiss quality of contact. My overarching point is that I wouldn't be surprised if X's market is more tepid than some think (and more tepid than Boras hopes). While he's still a tremendous player, he appears to be a different kind of player this year than in the past. Nine HRs and 49 RBI's are light for a middle-of-the-order hitter on a good team. And yes, I know we're all supposed to be reflexively and indignantly dismissive of any mention of RBIs. But his barrel rate and EV numbers are lower than they've been since 2017. His hard hit rate is his second lowest in that time (though, in fairness, that number has not fallen off the table). Put that all together and the view from my couch indicates he might be evolving into more of a table setter than a run producer. I emphasize "might be" because things could change dramatically over the last seven weeks of this season or his numbers could regress to his pre-2022 norms next year. That's baseball Suzyn. But I think his 2022 offensive performance, barring a power surge between now and the end of the season, could give teams pause about paying $30M in AAV for a lot of years. I am also skeptical that teams are going to buy into his 2022 defensive numbers as indicative of actual improvement and not just due to the squishiness of defensive metrics, especially in a one-season sample. His UZR/150 is well over twice as high as his previous best year (not counting 2013 when he appeared in only 18 games for the World Champs). On the positive side, X remains a foundational player and has been ridiculously consistent in some performance measures. His wRC+ for the last three years: 130, 130, and 130. Unreal. In the two years before 2020, he was 141 and 133. I hope the RS re-sign him and am highly critical of Bloom for not making a serious attempt (based on what we know from press reports). I'd go as high as six years/$25M in AAV and that's coming from someone who is pretty cautious and stingy about giving out big contracts.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 21:39:43 GMT -5
If he was hitting at the top of the order I think people would have a different opinion. He’s just struggled to drive people in this year. At least he got the RBI with the groundout tonight but then he killed a potential rally later with a double play. His numbers are pretty hollow this year. But his run production isn’t something we’d be complaining about if he hit 1st or even 2nd. And he gets on-base at the rate of an elite table setter. I think we would feel differently about his season if he was in that kind of role. The defense this year being legitimately solid to good is so bizarre. On one hand I give full credit to Xander for the improvement, on the other hand I have a hard time believing it will be sustainable year to year at this point in his career. And if the power is below-average and he plays 3B he’ll still be a good player, it will just be a really weird profile. Not one I’d feel Uber-confident investing a ton of money into I hear that. But I'm still comfortable with him over the next several years. He's shown the defense is not falling off a cliff, at least, and I'm not really worried about the power as a long-term issue. I like the idea of a 5 or maybe 6 year deal a lot. More than that it's only sentimental reasons that would make me want to do it.I've learned that as a sports fan, I have to be as sentimental as a block of cement. Despite that, I land in the same place you do: five or six years at $25M a year. I'd consider every dollar I could get shaved off that AAV a victory. Broadening the conversation a bit, I'd love to see the RS sign X to that deal and Raffy to something in the high $20M's AAV range. That would still give CB enough flexibility to sign a few FAs to short-term value contracts this off-season and get us back in the hunt in 2023. By 2024, I expect the talent in the farm system to really start making an impact.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 21:15:58 GMT -5
It seems that every year a guy or two gets left behind on the FA market. Given that teams are going to anticipate moving X off SS, I can easily see him being one of those guys.
If the offers are less than expected, Boras will certainly hold him out until deep into the off-season, maybe even into ST. I just wish CB and Boras could be reasonable and strike a deal that works for both sides. I still say 6 years/$150M is about right.
Unfortunately, I don't think CB has much interest in bringing X back and I never expect Boras to be reasonable about anything.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 20:38:50 GMT -5
I wouldn't hate a QO for Wacha. But I'd prefer trying to sign him to a reasonable multi-year deal - maybe 3 years/$36M. That AAV wouldn't crush the payroll if he missed a good part of a season with an injury.
But I don't expect CB to choose either of these options. His goal will be to find the 2023 version of Michael Wacha in FA and sign the guy to a one-year, low-money contract. Whether we like it or not, that's his default approach.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 20:29:31 GMT -5
It was 2017 when we had Doug Fister, right? I recall him pitching a quickie game to beat the MFYs. I think it was a Saturday afternoon. This one reminded me of that one.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 20:21:27 GMT -5
Alex sure does trust him some Ryan Brasier sigh. Brasier pitched against the 7-8-9. The MFY 7-8-9 looked bad for a first place team. Cora figured he could handle the weak sticks.There's gotta be a Reese McGuire joke in there somewhere!
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 19:52:11 GMT -5
I can’t believe there would be any waffling on paying Raffy. He is a 25-year old batting over .300, 26 HRs, 4th in the majors in OPS. What is the holdup? Probably money and years.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 19:44:54 GMT -5
I've never seen that genre of stylin' that Raffy just pulled. He took a bunch of steps backwards and flipped the bat. Love it!
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 19:30:30 GMT -5
Now I am genuinely scared.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 19:27:42 GMT -5
Let’s do another Yankees Mt Rushmore. This is ridiculous The thing with an MFY Mount Rushmore is that all the guys on there are dead because they've had a lousy century. We'd have Yaz, Pedro and Papi, not to mention the GHWEL.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 19:19:53 GMT -5
Ravitch, speaking about the MFY fans in the crowd, said that "when" the MFYs take the lead... He didn't say if. He said when. Get bent, man.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 19:11:50 GMT -5
What’s this about Houck seeing a spine specialist? Is that good? It's good if the plan is for him to have a spine implant that gives him the dedication and selflessness to make himself available for all his team's games.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 13:48:23 GMT -5
Explain to me Bogaerts greatly out performing his expected wOBA for eight straight years? Never once not out performing it and averaging a .357 wOBA versus a .329 expected. Explain 2015-2017 a below average expected wOBA that produced 12.9 offensive bwar? Along with two SS awards. It certainly didn't predict just luck and he'd get worse. Which seems to be the point you keep making, even though expected wOBA is backwards looking and not forward looking. Now an expected number that never once has been right with Bogaerts is going to determine his next contract? If this is what Bloom is doing, it explains a lot. I don't think he is using xwOBA as a predictive stat here(I think we can all agree it is not). But going into a contract season and seeing his lowest xwOBA, xwOBACON, and wOBA since 2017 is going to negatively affect his market. A guy with questions of sticking at shortstop is now showing some decline offensively. That will no doubt make the Red Sox and other teams more cautious going into free agency. This is correct. I just made another post (before I saw this one) in which I acknowledged that X could bounce back next year and a reasonable contract with him could end up being a good deal, not an albatross. I'm glad the Red Sox didn't give up on What's His Name - that big DH guy - after his 2010 season (102 OPS-plus, .7 B-Ref War). Heck, X could go on a power surge starting tonight (like Bobby D. did around this time last year) and make his final numbers look a lot better. But to this point, he has not performed like a middle-of-the-order bat on a good team. Also, note that while his B-Ref WAR is a nice 3.9, he's at .7 in dWAR, the highest he's been since 2015. In fact, he's been in negative territory four times in his career and at .1 in two others. Smart teams are going to wonder whether his .7 this year is actual improvement or just the squishiness of defensive metrics. The questions about his defense and his lower power numbers should depress his value. But we also know there's often a GM out there who'll do something stupid and give a player a contract that becomes a disaster.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 14, 2022 13:31:15 GMT -5
In a rational world, X's down year could enhance the chances of re-signing him by making him more affordable. My absolute ceiling remains six years and $150M, which is a slightly enhanced version of the the Story contract. That could very well end up being a nice deal for the Red Sox because we know players careers are not even. X could bounce back and be a better player in 2023.
But several elements in our irrational world make a reasonable deal with the RS unlikely. First, Bloom gives the impression he doesn't want him back at all at any price. Given that my confidence in Bloom's judgment has taken a major hit, I don't expect him to come off that position.
There's also the Boras factor. He'll pound the table and demand big money and years. That gets me to the third irrational element, which is the tendency of teams to do stupid things. It'll take only one team to offer X a madly insane, payroll-crushing contract and he'll be gone. I can easily see D-Dom going to $200M..
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 13, 2022 22:12:07 GMT -5
The good thing about the RS being pretty much out of it is that a loss to the MFY doesn't bother me as much. Most years, it makes me crazy pissed.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 13, 2022 21:40:04 GMT -5
x is a bum and I can’t wait until he’s replaced I'm not ready to go that far yet. But I think he's becoming a case study in why teams shouldn't listen to the crowd noise and jump too early on re-upping a guy for a lot of money and years. His xwOBA is .319. He'll end up getting a contract a whole lot less lucrative than some of the numbers that were being tossed around on here.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 13, 2022 18:40:18 GMT -5
Who's going to make the first joke about McGuire's arm exercises paying off?
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 12, 2022 21:38:22 GMT -5
Big hit by Pham! And McGuire's little one helped too!
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 12, 2022 21:28:19 GMT -5
Whitlock is a filthy man. And I don't mean filthy like Reese McGuire.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 12, 2022 21:12:19 GMT -5
Most importantly no win for the domestic abuser Which one? They have a couple of them on their staff. Not to mention the racist Donaldson.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 12, 2022 21:10:35 GMT -5
JD! That certainly surprised me. My expectations were low with him. OTOH, it's not like he hit a rocket!
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 12, 2022 21:09:42 GMT -5
JD! That certainly surprised me. My expectations were low with him.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 12, 2022 21:02:41 GMT -5
This guy just threw five balls to X. Too bad Raffy let him off the hook by check swinging at that 0-1 pitch.
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 12, 2022 19:39:07 GMT -5
I have the misfortune of being stuck with the MFY broadcast on YES down here in Stamford, Ct. Michael Kay just said people are wondering how Hosmer and Casas will fit on the same roster. He might want to read MLB Trade Rumors or, heck, how about SP.com and find out that Hosmer is making about 10 cents a game from the RS and the rest of his salary from the Pads.
|
|
|