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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 22:22:53 GMT -5
They barely went over its not like he's got the ability to blow by the luxury tax by 50+ million. I would say there's evidence he's lacked flexibility so far in his tenure. IE the mookie/price deal. I dont love Bloom like I said I'm growing leary but I personally think it fair to give him the next year to see if we're actually moving in a positive direction because he won't have so much dead money on the books and theoretically has around 100 million to actually put his stamp on the team this year. The only actual dead money is money he created by trading Price, spent that this year on Hill/Paxton. Are you better off? DD had Sandoval, Ramirez and Castillo, then a few years in Pedroia. Cherington had a bloated payroll, Theo had bad contracts. I really hate that excuse. If you want to go over why Barely over? Our owner would have approved $50 million over if Bloom asked and it meant going after a championship. If the rules are the same 39.9 over is just money and he had over $30 million more he could have spent. If you complain about payroll flexibility then taking on guys like Bradley and signing crazy risky Paxton seem rather foolish no? That's a lot of money for negative war value. A huge part of this season is how he spent the money he had no? Bloom did not create dead money by trading Price to the LAD and subsidizing him. Price is a decent reliever this year and is costing the Red Sox $16M in AAV. Without the trade, we'd be paying him $31M to relieve and probably make some spot starts. He wouldn't be worth the additional $15M the RS would be paying him and he certainly wouldn't have been last year when he put up a 4.23 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 73 innings. And you're not counting Sale as dead money that Bloom inherited? The guy has pitched 48 innings over 11 games the past three years, providing exactly 1 B-Ref WAR, on a contract ($25M AAV) that common sense said was terrible when D-Dom gave it to him. And yes, I understand that the liner off his finger has everything to do with being unlucky and nothing to do with being injury-prone. But would you have bet on him making it to the finish line this year even without the finger injury? Given that he hasn't pitched a full season since 2017, he well may have broken down again, or fallen off a bike and wrecked himself up. Bloom deserves major criticism for the Bradley trade and other moves. My confidence in him has taken a big hit. But it's not realistic to think he didn't inherit a bloated payroll. Bloom also had Pedroia's contract on the books his first two years with the RS. It finally came off this year.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 21:46:32 GMT -5
Doesn’t it make more sense to call up cassas on may 1st next season? No! We want him to start the 2023 season with the Red Sox. The new CBA rewards teams for placing prospects on the OD roster: www.blessyouboys.com/2022/3/14/22973710/all-the-details-in-mlbs-new-collective-bargaining-agreement"Teams that promote a player to the opening day roster and keep him up for a full season will be eligible to receive up to three draft picks if the player finishes in the Top 3 in the Rookie of the Year voting or Top 5 in MVP/Cy Young voting before he is eligible for arbitration." All the injuries to the pitching staff this year forced the Red Sox to rush Bello to The Show. I was hoping we could game the system with him, too, by letting him join the big team for OD next year.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 21:17:28 GMT -5
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 17:48:16 GMT -5
So Duran probably has no value, right? The ship has sailed on getting anything meaningful out of him. He and Bobby D. seem like perfect guys to hawk to the Oakland A's. Beane might feel like he has a low-risk shot of getting some productive years out of them. Of course, we wouldn't get much for them, but keeping them here is pointless. I never could understand Duran's ranking on SP or on other lists, especially at the start of this year when he was 25.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 17:44:36 GMT -5
The JD could stand for Just Depart, as far as I'm concerned, because that's what I want him to do. Of the players we have hitting FA this winter, his contract offers the best opportunity for re-deploying the money and improving the team. A .775-OPS DH who can't play the field just doesn't carry much value.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 17:21:51 GMT -5
cdj - You out there? What'd you think of that Xander AB with a runner on 3B and less than two outs? He totally drives in runs at a completely fine clip I’ve been told Im gonna go get the bleach He seems like he's out to single-handedly disprove the theory that RBIs are a meaningless stat, which I've never believed anyways. I enjoyed having David Ortiz here compiling a ton of them every year. I always feel like no stat tells the whole story of a player's performance and no stat tells zero story of a player's performance. They all need context. Sometimes people are so eager to show their sophistication about advanced metrics that they make a big show of howling when somebody mentions an old-school metric.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 16:34:07 GMT -5
Bogaerts naturally can’t drive yet another runner in, getting under a slop pitch You posted so quickly that you beat my question!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 16:33:20 GMT -5
cdj - You out there? What'd you think of that Xander AB with a runner on 3B and less than two outs?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 16:22:29 GMT -5
I wouldn't have given good Xander some of the crazy contract numbers that were being thrown through the first few months of this season. This bad Xander has to have more realistic expectations. Then again, it takes only one team to do something stupid. Friendly reminder that he's still on pace to match the best WAR total of his career. I woudn't assume his market has tanked just yet. Fair point. But I still wonder whether his positive dWAR numbers will repeat themselves. Or are they just due to the unreliability of defensive metrics in a one-year sample? I have to think teams that consider signing him are going to have that question, too.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 16:11:27 GMT -5
I wouldn't have given good Xander some of the crazy contract numbers that were being thrown through the first few months of this season. This bad Xander has to have more realistic expectations. Then again, it takes only one team to do something stupid.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 15:48:45 GMT -5
Boone just threw a little tantrum in the post-game presser. He slammed his hand down on the table and yelled to emphasize that the MFYs have to player better. Then he railed against the questions he was getting. Pretty funny.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 22:30:11 GMT -5
Toast. Now two under .500 and going backwards. predicted final record 80-82. 10% playoff chance. I'd bet the under on 80 wins. Fewer wins, more losses, higher draft position. LFG!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 22:28:12 GMT -5
Rob Refsnyder is hitting .327/.409/.531 this year in the major leagues, with the batted ball metrics to match it, and we have him for two more dirt cheap years. At the absolute worst he’s a platoon lefty masher Yes, I expect CB to use the financial flexibility he'll have this winter to build a deeper team, meaning fewer ABs going to non-ML players like Franchy, Marwin Gonzalez, Duran and Plawecki. He'll try to set it up so that the RS have platoon advantages at a couple of spots in the order in every game. Refsnyder fits nicely onto a roster like that.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 21:48:28 GMT -5
We all know that a 19-year-old's first 43 ABs in high-A tell the story of what his career is going to be like.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 21:26:30 GMT -5
I love switching on the MFY post-game show after they lose. Boone just got snappy with a reporter who asked about the shrinking lead. He interrupted her with, "I don't give a crap about that."
He sounded like a punk. But somewhat in his defense, the questions were outright stupid. One reporter asked him what his primary emotion is these days. I felt like I was watching Dr. Melfi trying to get Tony Soprano to open up.
The MFYs have now been shut out in three of their last six games. An early October exit and Boone gets canned, I think.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 21:06:45 GMT -5
At least we can say that Familia has a good head on his shoulders.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 21:04:00 GMT -5
Arroyo and Refsnyder with 3 hits each. Verdugo still hot with 2. Raffi 0-4 and now under .300. Our team has just been out of synch all year - we hit and don't pitch, or we pitch but don't hit. Weird. It's called .500 BB. At some point, we'll all accept that that's what the RS are. I've accepted it in my head. In my heart, I'm still unrealistically hoping for a hot streak that vaults us into the PS and we make a deep-into-October run. That's why I'm still sitting here like an idiot night after night watching these games.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 20:54:40 GMT -5
McGuire with a softie!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 20:45:27 GMT -5
his head is always Tilted for a reason. When I see his tilted head in the game, I start hanging mine.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 20:40:07 GMT -5
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 19:24:18 GMT -5
Pham often looks the same in LF as Duran looks in CF. The main difference is that Pham actually runs after the ball after he flubs the catch.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 16:51:46 GMT -5
The whole point of the approach is to take fliers on multiple relatively inexpensive and hope one of them sticks. When you say "oh well most of that is one player".... Yeah, that is literally the point and means the idea worked I accept fliers… but at ~$10 million, it is no longer just spaghetti. That is a real FA signing. If this is the cost-efficient regime, writing off guys like Richards and Paxton seems harder to justify. Again… why go into the season with Paxton in wraps and no one in RF? Those “fliers” aren’t without other costs. I think you have a fair question about paying Paxton while counting on a guy who was one of the worst players in MLB in 2021 to play RF (though we all like JBJ and appreciate his contributions over the years). Again, I hope CB can get the payroll under control by building a pipeline of low-cost, productive talent and getting out of the some of burdensome contracts he has now. That would make it possible for him to fill more spots and remain under the LTT. Perhaps they could have gotten Paxton - who might still contribute in 2023 - and a better option for RF.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 16:33:04 GMT -5
manfred literally said he'd prefer signing no one at all to signing Wacha/Hill/Paxton. Take it up with him.
But I agree the conversation could be better. So here are realistic alternatives to the Wacha/Hill/Paxton tier of pitcher:
a) sign some mid-range starter among the ones I listed above
b) sign a more expensive/longer-term guy like Ray, Gausman, Stroman, or Rodon, and also don't make the Renfroe-JBJ trade to make it affordable
c) trade for pitching.
Before the season started I wanted to do (a), namely sign Eduardo Rodriguez. That wouldn't have worked out very well.
Option B looks pretty good if you bet on Gausman or Rodon, but is iffier for Ray or Stroman, and future years are TBD; also it still arguably leaves the rotation a man short.
Option C... I'm open to proposals. But I think the prospect cost would be too high for anything substantially better than Wacha, et al. for me to stomach.
I actually said I rather sign no one than Paxton. That was the original discussion. Then it expanded (mea culpa), and I said I don’t like grabbing lots of oft-injured guys. Wacha has been good (albeit hurt in a big stretch). The rest were bad. Last year I’d rather have signed no one than Richards. Why nobody instead of Richards? He didn't put them over the LTT, require giving up assets in a trade, or carry the burden of a long-term commitment. He was pretty useful out of the BP for a stretch. The Red Sox finished with the same record as the MFY, which put the one-gamer at Fenway. That means every contribution was valuable.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 16:13:50 GMT -5
Like so many questions about the Bloom approach, I remain hopeful that it will be more successful (not that it hasn't been successful at all since he got here - 2021 ALCS) once the farm system becomes an annual and productive source of talent and he is able to get the payroll under control.
This year has given me a lot of doubts about his judgment. But if Bello, Mata and Kutter become productive starters with guys like Walter, Murphy and Ward, Houck and Whitlock helping in the BP for relative pennies, he'll have a lot more flexibility to go after higher-priced P. As it is, he's been dragging a $41M ball and chain known as the Price and Sale contracts around with him since he got here.
As far as relying too heavily on spaghetti, every team has P's who bring a wide range of potential outcomes. Bloom has gotten good production out of Wacha and Hill.
If your broker hits on enough stocks to give you a solid return, you don't can him because of the fails. Most stocks, like most ML P's, are not a sure winners.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 19, 2022 8:46:06 GMT -5
Batting average? Really? From what I can decipher from the rest of your post, it sounds like you would have been Ok with the deadline if CB had just kept Vaz. Under that scenario, he still would not have accomplished any of the three objectives. He would not have lifted the team into contention, he would not have gotten under the LTT, and he would not have significantly improved the farm. Assuming the Red Sox don't make the PS (FG odds now at 11.3 percent for PS and a whopping .3 percent to win the WS) and have to pay a LT, I have to think JWH and CB will be having a very uncomfortable conversation. Any CEO would be unhappy with an operations person who spends more money than all but a few companies in the industry and gets a crap result. What else am I suppose to use? BR doesn't breakdown war into small sample sizes. Yeah it's not great. If I had to estimate, you'd be around plus .3 to .4 bwar with Vazquez and McGuire versus with Plawecki where you're at zero or negative. I wanted a fire sale, play the young guys and tank for improved draft position. That being said I could understand Bloom doing what he did if he didn't trade Vazquez. He believed in team and gave them a somewhat chance. Still wouldn't agree because at 16.6% I don't like the odds. Yet I won't slam a GM either for truly believing in his team, yet the Vazquez trade was like a punch in the gut to the team. Look at reports, even beyond the difference in Vazquez versus Plawecki, the team took it as we give up and Bloom has moved on. Without that, you get the opposite. B-Ref lists OPS and OPS-plus by month. Plawecki has a .300 OPS for August, which is an incredible -15 OPS-plus. FG lists OPS and wRC+ by month (-30 for Plawecki). Agree with you on wanting a fire sale, but disagree that CB's route was defensible. Either way, I would have kept Vaz and tried to re-sign him to a reasonable two- or three-year deal. Sometimes it's necessary to downgrade a position due to payroll constraints. Mookie was a good example. Unless, we replaced him with Mike Trout, it was going to be a downgrade. With Vaz the dollars and years would have made it possible to keep him, so no need to downgrade from him. Also, trading him didn't produce much of a prospect haul or get us under the LTT.
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