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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 9, 2022 22:31:11 GMT -5
The Hicks play was pretty bad. Take a look. He did a Duran and made no effort after his missed on the catch.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 9, 2022 22:26:59 GMT -5
Watching the MFY post-game show after another one of their losses is about the only BB pleasure I have these days. I tuned in a few minutes ago and learned that Aaron Hicks was yanked out of the game after he misplayed two balls. On one, he didn't realize it landed fair. He didn't rush to get it in and a second run scored.
Good times!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 9, 2022 22:14:42 GMT -5
I'll do the honors.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 9, 2022 12:34:29 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if Bloom has a thought in his head about extending a QO to JDM. I look for him to use his payroll space to build a deeper, more flexible roster that maximizes the value of every spot. Paying $20M to a DH who'd be on the short side of any platoon and doesn't play the field is exactly what he doesn't want to do, I think.
Not to mention the fact that JDM isn't very good. Bloom has to think he can get a .770 OPS out of the DH spot by rotating less-expensive guys in and out and getting a LH-RH platoon advantage in most games.
Offer QO's to X and Eovaldi but try to work out reasonable deals with both of them before FA.
No QO for Wacha. The Red Sox Stats post is convincing that he's been extremely lucky.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 8, 2022 20:29:11 GMT -5
The question is can he play both positions at a GG level at the same time. He'd have to cover a lot of ground, but he'd be the ultimate Bloom-type value player because you'd need only eight guys on the field and save a salary! But seriously, the comment about him already being a GG OF reminds me of a similar comment about JBJ when he was working his way through the system. An evaluator said that as soon as JBJ got his first callup, he'd be the best CF in the AL. It's great to hear similar praise about another young stud.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 7, 2022 21:59:39 GMT -5
It's not that Bloom is infallible. It's that "I liked Mookie Betts & Andrew Benintendi and Bloom traded Mookie Betts & Andrew Benintendi", or "Any trade involving prospects was bad if a prospect's ranking drops after the deal was signed", or "Dombrowski won a WS and Bloom hasn't, so Dombrowski is good and Bloom is bad" are the caliber of arguments we're seeing here. I frequently call out arguments like these because they are terrible and deserve to be called out. I will never argue that Bloom is perfect, because he is not. In my unqualified opinion, holding guys like JDM and Eovaldi at the deadline and staying over the LT threshold was a mistake this year. The JBJ trade also backfired in a big way, even if I understand the logic behind it. I would have liked to see more turnover in the bullpen earlier in the season too. Most of the arguments being levied against Bloom in this thread are not these, though. It seems to be mostly frustration with the team's performance bubbling up into emotional arguments directed at a convenient scapegoat. You'd think this team hadn't had an 86-year WS drout with the level of impatience and entitlement from the fanbase. How ironic, given that the current team building approach is designed to give us exactly what we all want: a perennial contender. I expect ownership will be more aware of this than the average member of this forum, though, and I expect Bloom will be given a chance to see his vision through as a result. I'm getting a bit tired of posting in this thread and don't want to dominate the discussion either, so I think I will leave it at that until we start seeing some major transactions. To me, this post nails it. I consider myself to be in the sensible center when it comes to Bloom. I was indifferent to 2020, loved how he put the 2021 team together, and am baffled and frustrated by his 2022 roster construction and deadline decisions. As an inhabitant of the sensible center, I'm in a good position to judge the arguments for and against Bloom. It's clear to me that the Never Bloomers have trouble giving the guy credit for anything. Someone on here once claimed that 2021 was a crap year because we didn't win the division. How can a reasonable person possibly take that seriously? The Sensible Centrists sometimes level harsh criticism (like I did in the first paragraph of this post), but appreciate Bloom's successes and are willing to give his approach more time to work, while also acknowledging reasons for concern. The Sensible Centrists don't see every argument as Bloom vs. D-Dom. Being sensible means respecting D-Dom for realizing that he inherited a tremendous young core and aggressively bringing in veteran stars to complement that core and bring us a WS championship. His talents enabled us to experience the joy of seeing the greatest team in franchise history. The irony for me is when the Never Bloomers get frustrated with the Sensible Centrists and accuse them of having no objectivity. It's quite the other way around.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 7, 2022 20:32:56 GMT -5
JD - June - .232-3-10 July - .210-1-7. August - .214-2-10 September so far - 4 for 15,0-1 Three plus months - 6 HR, 27 RBI, and a batting average around .220 Why is he still getting ABs? That puts him at .266 in September. So, your point is that he's heating up?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 7, 2022 20:25:00 GMT -5
They spent about $19 million total for JBJ and some D prospects. JBJ gave them -0.4 WAR Hunter Renfroe is paid 7.5 million and produce 2.4 WAR so far. I see the main prospect from that deal is now ranked 30th on Sox prospects and sinking. Apparently Bloom and company felt Renfroe was a mirage. To be fair he was poor in the playoffs. I recall around this time last year trying to come up with up CB's three best moves. It was hard to narrow it down to three. Now I'd have trouble whittling a list of his worst decisions down to three. The JBJ-Renfroe trade, the Beni trade and his overall incoherent set of moves at this year's deadline would be finalists.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 7, 2022 19:49:57 GMT -5
They do??? That’s the first I’ve heard of that. I thought it was an option year? it's a buy out. What's unclear to me is whether it has any LTT implications for RS in 2023.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 5, 2022 12:36:16 GMT -5
I don't feel a bit of sentimentality or regret that Mookie is no longer here. That would be pointless. My boo-hoos aren't going to bring him back or improve the RS prospects going forward, so why bother? A few points: 1. Based on reporting, Mookie rejected 5 years/$100M after the 2016 season; 8 years $200M after the 2017 season; and $10 years/300M after the 2018 season, an offer that he countered by asking for 12 years/$420M. I think it's safe to say D-Dom made honest efforts to sign him. (https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-made-three-generous-proposals-to-mookie-betts-before-deciding-to-trade-him-to-dodgers.html) 2. Mookie has lied to us. He said he would have signed with the RS if they had made the 12-year/$365M he ended up getting from the LAD. If so, why did he counter the post-2018 offer with one substantially larger than what he got from the LAD? 3. I don't know what it means to say the Red Sox "could have" signed him at LAD $$$ and years, but chose not to. If you mean that giving him the 12 years/$420M or even the 12 years/$365M would not have put Fenway Sports Group in a chapter 7 liquidation or forced JWH into a bread line, then you are correct. But they could not have gotten him at those $$$ and years and stayed under the LTT in 2020 and 2021. That's important. It would have also badly compromised the team's chances of competing during his decline years. And I'm still happy we didn't have Mookie causing trouble by doing Mookie-like things during the meaningless 2020 season. The RS won 24 games that year. He easily could have pushed us to 27, placing us in a tie with Seattle for the 11th or 12th pick. Teams can afford a lot of signings that they don't make because they think those signings would hurt their chances of winning going forward. Remember, the team's money represents the team's chances of winning. Teams are correct not to sign every player they could afford to sign, if only they wanted to. That would piss away chances at sustained success. 4. See point No. 1. David Dombrwoski was the BB boss of the Boston Red Sox when the organization made those offers that Marcus Lynn Betts rejected as too paltry. I don't blame D-Dom for the failure to re-sign Mookie because he made substantial offers, the last of which Mookie countered with a ridiculous ask. But holding a petty grudge that colors one's thinking about everything Chaim Bloom does just because he was the guy who was there when the trade had to be made is childish. He was not running BB Ops when the organization had its greatest leverage in talks with Betts. By the time Bloom took over in late October of 2019, the player had only one year before FA, had already turned down multiple offers, and had asked for $55 million more than he ended up getting from the richest organization in the sport. I don't mind conversation about the Betts deal three years later because it's a significant chapter in RS history. But I think we can do better here on SP than the level of conversation that takes place on talk radio or in a Shank Shaughnessy column. Betts clearly was never going to resign with Boston. It's obvious he didn't like playing in Boston and loves playing in L.A.. I'm not so sure about that. I think he would have played in Boston, LA or Osh Kosh - wherever he had the highest offer. And there's nothing wrong with that. Players won the right to FA through years of hard fights in the courts and negotiations. Individual players are entitled to use it they way they want. Too often, fans feel like they have to assign a black hat to one side and a white hat to the other when negotiations don't end in a deal. That's silly. Two sides pursued their own business interest and couldn't reach an agreement. Unless one side committed fraud or was blatantly dishonest, there's no moral winner or loser.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 5, 2022 0:20:18 GMT -5
I came on here just to check in on Mata's out before turning in for the night. Damn, was I ever entertained by ilovetacos?!! Too funny.
Anyways, it appears that Mata is progressing but still has work to do with his location. I see him as a potential BP contributor in the second half of next year. He should finish up this year with fewer than 90 IP, making it unlikely that he'll be ready for a full season of starts in 2023.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2022 23:06:10 GMT -5
It will be interesting to see if he plays mostly SS or CF in winter ball. CF is such a hard position to find someone while SS seems to be way easier. I can see him in RF too. Mookie 2.0. I think my dream would be Mayer at SS in 3 years. Ceddanne in RF in 2 years and Bleis in CF in 3-4 years. With X at 2B, Raffy at 3B and Casas mashing at 1B. If Yorke's bat develops, he could be a DJ LaMaieu type, picking up ABs at 1B, 2B, 3B and DH. That lineup, along with low-cost contributions from Bello, Mata, Walter, Kutter and one or two others, would leave room for a high-priced acquisition or two.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2022 19:34:33 GMT -5
We got Dallas Keuchal DFA'ed That's twice we've done that this year Now if we can just develop that skill with some of our own guys. Brasier, Plawecki, Familia, come on down! Is that you I see hiding over there, JDM?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2022 17:26:11 GMT -5
No budget in the history of the business world has ever been limitless and the RS did not have a top-10 pick in the amateur drafts that took place from 2003 to 2011. I think he was referring to top 10 picks with the Cubs as the basis of their success. The cubs throughout their past 57 years have had a lot of top 10 picks. Didnt lead to any championships until Theo was GM. That is significant for the Cubs. It showed Theo could build from the ground up. You're probably right. But he also said Theo's "only success with drafting" was... I think his picks of Pedroia, Papelbon, Betts, Barnes, Bradley and others were successful.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2022 17:03:52 GMT -5
Gaspar is being misleading with this. The hiring of D-Dom did not at all indicate that JWH lied about wanting BC to be the GM for a long time. When he hired D-Dom, he made it clear he still wanted BC to be the GM. BC wasn't happy with that arrangement and left on his own. The Theo idea has popped into my head a few times too, but not with him coming in to mentor Bloom. I think of Theo as the first call JWH should make in a couple of years if it's time to move on from Bloom. By then Theo should have had enough time to recharge his batteries in his lower-pressure job with MLB. If ownership's goal is to have a GM who's only success with drafting was when budgets were limitless and when he had a top 10 pick then Theo is their guy. No budget in the history of the business world has ever been limitless and the RS did not have a top-10 pick in the amateur drafts that took place from 2003 to 2011.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2022 17:01:11 GMT -5
If ownership's goal is to have a GM who's only success with drafting was when budgets were limitless and when he had a top 10 pick then Theo is their guy. Maybe they like two championships in 10 seasons and 8 ninety win seasons in 10 years and two seasons where the worst they did was win 86 games and 89 games. I can't imagine Cubs fans look back and say, geez I wished Theo had never come to town...that they liked going crown less for 100 plus years. Theo wasn't perfect but I'd put up his resume against anybody else's. It's a Cooperstown worthy resume. Agree with all of this and would add that another consideration for me would be the assumption that Theo learned from the mistakes he made in his last couple of years. The Beckett, Lugo and Crawford contracts were bad and he should have prevailed over upper management to give Francona an extension past 2011. Making Tito go into that season without an extension and with a team full of big stars and egos left him in a no-win position.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2022 16:55:49 GMT -5
I don't feel a bit of sentimentality or regret that Mookie is no longer here. That would be pointless. My boo-hoos aren't going to bring him back or improve the RS prospects going forward, so why bother?
A few points:
1. Based on reporting, Mookie rejected 5 years/$100M after the 2016 season; 8 years $200M after the 2017 season; and $10 years/300M after the 2018 season, an offer that he countered by asking for 12 years/$420M. I think it's safe to say D-Dom made honest efforts to sign him. (https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2020/02/boston-red-sox-made-three-generous-proposals-to-mookie-betts-before-deciding-to-trade-him-to-dodgers.html)
2. Mookie has lied to us. He said he would have signed with the RS if they had made the 12-year/$365M he ended up getting from the LAD. If so, why did he counter the post-2018 offer with one substantially larger than what he got from the LAD?
3. I don't know what it means to say the Red Sox "could have" signed him at LAD $$$ and years, but chose not to. If you mean that giving him the 12 years/$420M or even the 12 years/$365M would not have put Fenway Sports Group in a chapter 7 liquidation or forced JWH into a bread line, then you are correct. But they could not have gotten him at those $$$ and years and stayed under the LTT in 2020 and 2021. That's important. It would have also badly compromised the team's chances of competing during his decline years.
And I'm still happy we didn't have Mookie causing trouble by doing Mookie-like things during the meaningless 2020 season. The RS won 24 games that year. He easily could have pushed us to 27, placing us in a tie with Seattle for the 11th or 12th pick.
Teams can afford a lot of signings that they don't make because they think those signings would hurt their chances of winning going forward. Remember, the team's money represents the team's chances of winning. Teams are correct not to sign every player they could afford to sign, if only they wanted to. That would piss away chances at sustained success.
4. See point No. 1. David Dombrwoski was the BB boss of the Boston Red Sox when the organization made those offers that Marcus Lynn Betts rejected as too paltry. I don't blame D-Dom for the failure to re-sign Mookie because he made substantial offers, the last of which Mookie countered with a ridiculous ask.
But holding a petty grudge that colors one's thinking about everything Chaim Bloom does just because he was the guy who was there when the trade had to be made is childish. He was not running BB Ops when the organization had its greatest leverage in talks with Betts. By the time Bloom took over in late October of 2019, the player had only one year before FA, had already turned down multiple offers, and had asked for $55 million more than he ended up getting from the richest organization in the sport.
I don't mind conversation about the Betts deal three years later because it's a significant chapter in RS history. But I think we can do better here on SP than the level of conversation that takes place on talk radio or in a Shank Shaughnessy column.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2022 15:54:37 GMT -5
Christopher Gaspar throwing a marker down on Bloom and reminding everyone: "Remember, Henry said of Cherington in June 2015, 'The general manager is going to be the general manager of this club for a very long time.' Dombrowski was hired two months later." Then reminding everyone Henry didn't even speak this time, just Sam Kennedy. He ends the article by saying Henry should entice Theo back, and Bloom can/should stay on as Theo's ward GM and learn from the master. FWIW Gaspar is being misleading with this. The hiring of D-Dom did not at all indicate that JWH lied about wanting BC to be the GM for a long time. When he hired D-Dom, he made it clear he still wanted BC to be the GM. BC wasn't happy with that arrangement and left on his own. The Theo idea has popped into my head a few times too, but not with him coming in to mentor Bloom. I think of Theo as the first call JWH should make in a couple of years if it's time to move on from Bloom. By then Theo should have had enough time to recharge his batteries in his lower-pressure job with MLB.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 27, 2022 0:07:55 GMT -5
Brasier somehow, even with tonight, has a 3.66 FIP/ 3.62 xFIP on the year. Sure doesn't feel like it when you watch him. Value! See, don’t believe your lying eyes! It’s just like the recession they tell us doesn’t exist. Looking quickly, it appears that teams just plain score a lot of runs off Brasier. B-Ref has his RA9 - which includes earned and unearned runs - at 6.29. He's also been bad in every month except one. He gave up a .501 OPS in June and hasn't been below .833 in any other month. He gives it up to the tune of .900 with RISP and .915 with men on base. These are the ABs that we tend to notice and remember. These numbers have to contribute to why he seems worse than his FIP and xFIP indicate. The National Bureau of Economic Research declares retrospectively when recessions began and ended. If we are in one now, it would be an extremely unusual one because job creation has been through the roof for about 18 months. It would be an unusual recession just like Ryan Brasier is having an unusual season.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 23, 2022 21:02:05 GMT -5
manfred, the comment above makes it seem like you understood the point julyanmorley was making, yet then you so often say things like this: You just seem to want to judge Bloom outside of the context of the total lack of cheap young talent (beyond Devers), and want to judge Dombrowski outside of the context of his inheriting the richest bevy of young talented players this team has seen in my lifetime.
So like, when you combine the lack of young talent with the expensive guys taking up most of the payroll, Bloom hasn't really had his chances. He's been working the margins. He'll finally have payroll control next season (other than Sale), but the young talent situation is still reflective of decisions that were made in the last decade (including, e.g., that thing where they lost out on a whole year of international signings, plus the draft pick lost for cheating, plus both Cherington's and Dombrowski's total disinterest in adding prospects via trade).
I know you get impatient and ask "well when can we decide that the team's performance reflects Bloom's stewardship." And the answer is that you can judge that at any time, based on the moves he makes in the context he makes them. This is what most people here do. I'm not sure why you're so resistant to it.
No I was responding to the notion that Henry would have to turn into Steinbrenner. My point was… he has had a pretty quick hook historically. I mean, if we assume all these guys are getting the ok for their moves, then Henry seems actually somewhat quick to fire guys. I’m not saying I think Ben especially was doing well, but Bloom certainly appears to be getting a relatively long leash. Henry has not had a quick hook and Bloom hasn't gotten a long leash. Those statements are fabrications. Theo Epstein had a long run here (2002 to 2011) and left on his own. BC was GM for four years and finished last in three of them. Even then they didn't fire him. They brought in D-Dom to be his boss and asked BC to stay. He made his own decision to leave. D-Dom inherited a great situation and masterfully added veterans to complete the team. His 2018 in-season acquisitions rival Theo's in 2004. But he committed two fireable offenses: screwing up and going over the LTT in '18, costing us a R1 pick; and the absurd Sale contact at the end of that season. Bloom's first season* resulted in a great, enjoyable run that electrified Fenway. This season has been disappointing in many ways: likely <.500 finish; head-scratching deadline decisions; apparently no serious effort to keep X around; the JBJ/Renfroe trade: the exposure of Franchy and Winck, the only two guys in the Beni trade who were anywhere near The Show, etc. But, contrary to what you seem to want to invent, Bloom does not have a long record of lousy performance here, especially when you consider what others have noted, which is that he inherited a bad situation. *Counting only the Bloom seasons anyone actually cares about.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 22, 2022 18:35:10 GMT -5
Okay, well if recent 21 year old draft picks and guys a year from being placed on the 40 man roster don't count, and Luis de la Rosa doesn't count for unclear reasons, then I guess there just aren't that many guys who would count for you as genuinely young prospects. But whatever - you just see a different pattern than I do. And maybe you're right that Bloom thinks there's a market inefficiency such that older prospects are undervalued; I dunno.
The substantive point is that, all else being equal, you're either getting an older prospect with less upside or a younger prospect with greater bust potential. You can't just say "well he should have gotten a great young prospect with a high ceiling" for like Mitch Moreland or Kevin Pillar or whatever because that just wasn't an option. True. Moreland and Pillar won’t return much… and didn’t. But then that also can’t be seen as to his credit, either. I think more and more the defense is a “but…”: this set of trade guys couldn’t get much! The top-5 player in baseball couldn’t get much with all the dead salary! He dan’t sign FAs because of Sale’s contract! Fine. But there does come a point when you also can’t call him good… just helpless. Now a question I ask in the genuine spirit of inquiry, not snarkily: who is the best prospect he has acquired by trade? I don’t count Pivetta, who was past prospect status. No reasonable person considers Bloom helpless. A lot of us are disappointed in his 2022 roster construction and deadline decisions, but let's not go all-out agenda-driven and pretend the guy is the village idiot. It's not like Red Sox BB Ops are being run by ML Carr or Mike "Pinky" Higgins and you know that if you'll just be honest with yourself. Bloom is respected enough in the industry that the most successful ownership group in the sport hired him. He's widely regarded as intelligent and analytical. The reasonable among us hope he is introspective enough to learn from his mistakes and that he puts his financial flexibility to use in 2023 while continuing to improve the farm.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 22, 2022 18:24:55 GMT -5
Fangraphs Roster Resource page lists Paxton as having a $5.8M AAV. I'm not quite sure how they get to that number to be honest. But that site is my go-to for salary information because it usually seems more authoritative than the others. We can disagree but I just don't see Richards, Wacha, Hill and Paxton as high-risk. I see them as low risk because you're not stuck with a big payout for a lot of years. Wacha has worked out well, Hill about like Bloom probably expected and Paxton, we'll see. Richards wasn't good overall but he did have a stretch where he was effective out of the BP. If you go by B-Ref, Richards put up .3 WAR last year, compared to Price's .6, so a razor thin difference. Richards cost significantly less than Price and carried no 2022 commitment. I've seen 10 million 3 different places, yet it's a tricky contract given the options, like Bradley the AAV is guaranteed money so you can't just use options years to get low AAV for luxury tax. I have no clue how you get 5.8 given the contract details I've seen. There's high risk in a given season and long-term risk. Sure long-term contracts carry more risk, that doesn't make those guys not high risk for this year. Look at their injury histories. How can you say significantly less cost? Add Prices dead money, then Richards contract because you need another pitcher and it's about $26 million. How's that working out? You like the lower risk of short-term deals, yet the results are? It's this great idea in theory, yet just means Bloom is betting on risky guys year after year. What does Price do the last two years starting in Boston? We won't ever know, yet we easily could have been better off just keeping him. You can't say he's more risky than the guys Bloom brought in to replace him. That was the issue trading Price and highlighted more because Bloom somehow didn't get one of the million pitchers the Dodgers had. So you always had to spend the savings on more pitching. I'm really not following you in the first bolded section. If you didn't have what you're calling "Price's dead money" - the $16M the RS are paying him to pitch for LA, the RS would still be paying out that $16M and the $15M they shed by shipping Price to the LAD. He'd be in the RS BP with a $31M AAV in 2021 and 2022. Given the way the SP has been beat up this year, he probably would have made some spot starts, but are you really saying that he'd be giving you good value for the $31M? Paying him to pitch for LA isn't a great option either but it's the kind of choice teams face when players are toward the back end of massive contracts. The significantly less cost that I mentioned was Richards' 2021 AAV of $10M vs. $15M the Price trade opened up. I don't think the difference in WAR that FG and B-Ref have for these two guys in 2021 is worth arguing about. B-Ref gives Price a .3 WAR advantage, whereas FG gave Richards a .3 WAR advantage. You're right, we'll never know what Price would have done in 2021 and 2022 as a SP in Boston. But we do know that in 2019 he put up 1.6 B-Ref WAR and 2.3 with FG. He then sat out the 2020 Covid season and was two years older when he hit a mound again. It's reasonable to think he would not have been both good and durable as a SP in 2021. On your second bolded point, while the Mookie-to-LA drama was unfolding I was hoping they'd extract a young P. I was hoping for Josiah Gray, though he hasn't developed into much yet. I think Tony Gonsolin's name came up and that would have been great, as it turns out. So, we somewhat agree that bringing a P to town should have been a priority.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 21, 2022 17:26:48 GMT -5
What do Hill and Paxton, who were signed before the 2022 season, have to do with David Price, who was traded before the 2020 season? But even going that route is a losing argument. FG has Price's 2022 WAR at .3 and Hill's at .8. If you insist on lumping in Paxton, you're still paying Hill/Paxton (combined AAV of $10.8M) considerably less than the $16 million Price makes from the RS and you're getting an additional .5 in WAR. (I said in my last post the RS are paying Price $15M/year. It's actually $16M.) Also, if you say he chose Hill/Paxton over Price in 2022, you'd have to then acknowledge that unloading the Price money may have contributed to affording KKH ($7.5M) and Hunter Renfroe ($3.1M) in 2021. Both contributed to a successful season. Paxton doesn't even belong in this discussion. His AAV - which is only $5.8M - shouldn't be thought of as dead money. The signing came with the knowledge that he'd pitch little, if any, this year. They're hoping for a payback next year. Agree with your point that P signings come with injury risk but the Sale contract came with more than a risk of injury. It came with a high likelihood of injury. He was 31 with a lot of innings on his arm when the contract started. He has a herky-jerky motion, is rail thin and broke down during the 2018 season. It seemed nuts at the time it was announced. The worst part was that he wasn't even about to be a FA. He was already under contract for 2019 and the contract didn't start until 2020 So, it was really a bet that he'd stay relatively healthy for six years, not five. What you used the 16 million Price money on pitching to replace him. AAV for those two is $15 million. Baseball Refrence has it .1 for Hill and .6 for Price. You traded starting pitching and thus had to sign more, so no Hernandez and Renfroe don't count, it's Richards and Perez for me. Like I said 2020 and 2021 look better. Yet it's not easy replacing starters. Even then Price in 2021 was much better as a starter than reliever, not a huge surprise he had to adjust. I'm seeing Paxton at $10 million, not $5.8. Maybe Paxton is good next year, doesn't change the waisted money this year on this team. Also if you thought almost nothing this year, that deals rather high no? He's such a huge risk even when healthy. I don't disagree about Sale, yet look who Bloom goes after Richards, Wacha, Hill, Paxton. Outside of Perez he goes after high risk high reward guys. If Sale was a free agent I bet he goes after him. Fangraphs Roster Resource page lists Paxton as having a $5.8M AAV. I'm not quite sure how they get to that number to be honest. But that site is my go-to for salary information because it usually seems more authoritative than the others. We can disagree but I just don't see Richards, Wacha, Hill and Paxton as high-risk. I see them as low risk because you're not stuck with a big payout for a lot of years. Wacha has worked out well, Hill about like Bloom probably expected and Paxton, we'll see. Richards wasn't good overall but he did have a stretch where he was effective out of the BP. If you go by B-Ref, Richards put up .3 WAR last year, compared to Price's .6, so a razor thin difference. Richards cost significantly less than Price and carried no 2022 commitment.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 21, 2022 11:01:19 GMT -5
Bloom did not create dead money by trading Price to the LAD and subsidizing him. Price is a decent reliever this year and is costing the Red Sox $16M in AAV. Without the trade, we'd be paying him $31M to relieve and probably make some spot starts. He wouldn't be worth the additional $15M the RS would be paying him and he certainly wouldn't have been last year when he put up a 4.23 FIP and 1.43 WHIP in 73 innings. And you're not counting Sale as dead money that Bloom inherited? The guy has pitched 48 innings over 11 games the past three years, providing exactly 1 B-Ref WAR, on a contract ($25M AAV) that common sense said was terrible when D-Dom gave it to him. And yes, I understand that the liner off his finger has everything to do with being unlucky and nothing to do with being injury-prone. But would you have bet on him making it to the finish line this year even without the finger injury? Given that he hasn't pitched a full season since 2017, he well may have broken down again, or fallen off a bike and wrecked himself up. Bloom deserves major criticism for the Bradley trade and other moves. My confidence in him has taken a big hit. But it's not realistic to think he didn't inherit a bloated payroll. Bloom also had Pedroia's contract on the books his first two years with the RS. It finally came off this year. Bloom absolutely created dead money trading Price, how can you argue he didn't? Is Hill and Paxton better? We spent 15 million on about 70 innings of replacement level pitching, have we not looked at Hill stats? Paxtons? I said dead money this year, all that money is on Bloom. Sale isn't dead money and every GM that signs pitchers will deal with injuries to pitchers. I'd buy the point more if Bloom didn't go over, yet just barely and left a ton of money on the table he could have spent. He didn't max out his budget, that's on him and there's no way we couldn't spend more given we did years ago. Your point is much more valid in 2020 and 2021, not this year. He had tons of money to spend. Like I said before Cherington and DD had bad contracts, it's literally just part of being a Boston GM and not a reason for this season. You have Sale and Eovaldi two very injury prone pitchers, so to fill out rotation you sign Wacha, Hill and Paxton? He literally put together maybe the most injury prone pitching staff in Baseball history. I'm not surprised, I said it in the offseason he was crazy, you'd have to be lucky for that to work. What do Hill and Paxton, who were signed before the 2022 season, have to do with David Price, who was traded before the 2020 season? But even going that route is a losing argument. FG has Price's 2022 WAR at .3 and Hill's at .8. If you insist on lumping in Paxton, you're still paying Hill/Paxton (combined AAV of $10.8M) considerably less than the $16 million Price makes from the RS and you're getting an additional .5 in WAR. (I said in my last post the RS are paying Price $15M/year. It's actually $16M.) Also, if you say he chose Hill/Paxton over Price in 2022, you'd have to then acknowledge that unloading the Price money may have contributed to affording KKH ($7.5M) and Hunter Renfroe ($3.1M) in 2021. Both contributed to a successful season. Paxton doesn't even belong in this discussion. His AAV - which is only $5.8M - shouldn't be thought of as dead money. The signing came with the knowledge that he'd pitch little, if any, this year. They're hoping for a payback next year. Agree with your point that P signings come with injury risk but the Sale contract came with more than a risk of injury. It came with a high likelihood of injury. He was 31 with a lot of innings on his arm when the contract started. He has a herky-jerky motion, is rail thin and broke down during the 2018 season. It seemed nuts at the time it was announced. The worst part was that he wasn't even about to be a FA. He was already under contract for 2019 and the contract didn't start until 2020 So, it was really a bet that he'd stay relatively healthy for six years, not five.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 22:55:02 GMT -5
I think the problem with this plan is that the Red Sox would need a trade partner with a major need for an ace pitcher and starting pitching depth that can fill-in if he can't go. That description sounds just like the Red Sox. He's a 10-5 guy. Doubt anybody wants to trade for him unless the Sox pay almost all the freight. It's all a moot point anyways. Doubt Sale would accept a trade anyways and you can't trade him without his permission anyways. Correct, he's not going anywhere, except for on the IL a few more times over the next two years.
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