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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:22:09 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. he does not have a higher OPS than Hamilton, he has a lower OBP and a lower SLG Sorry, my bad, I had Hamilton between Rafaela and Valdez. I was looking at Hamilton's career stats.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:19:27 GMT -5
Also, my personal opinion but I've seen enough of Rafaela at shortstop to think he'll be elite there too. I'll give it 30 more games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:16:23 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. Fair, but Rafaela is the only one of those 5 projected to be a starter next year (and for the next 5 after that) so in my opinion that causing more scrutiny over his bat in general by folks. True that but we're also talking about SSS to start a career and projecting it to his future.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:04:47 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:00:45 GMT -5
To me, the key to Rafaela being one tick better than anyone else is his transfer speed. Transfer speed works anyplace but especially at shortstop. Watch him closely, even on routine plays. He's Pedroia fast in that regard.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:41:42 GMT -5
I must be missing something here. You are saying they shouldn't DH Devers after a game when he went 3 for 4 with a walk and homer as the DH? You say he is their most important player, which I can agree with because I think he is their best hitter. So I can't agree that Yoshida is a comparable option. Devers is a better hitter than Yoshida. And if the Red Sox want to DH him on his first game back (just like they did with O'Neil and Grissom at AAA) or even for a couple of games, I am fine with that, especially since Devers is not that good in the field. I am just happy he is back and contributing in a game where they beat Cleveland for a change. Yes. A bad decision that works out is still a bad decision. Healthy Devers is a better hitter than healthy Yoshida, but Devers and Yoshida had near identical production on the year coming into tonight, with Yoshida being especially good lately. The advantage of playing Devers in the field is it lets you get Yoshida's bat in the lineup too instead of Reyes and thereby flips an offensive black hole into a useful offensive player. And of course, if he comes back too early and aggravates his injury, that's the worst case scenario of any of this. With Devers, the shoulder is more worrisome to me than the knee.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:22:16 GMT -5
I think you are seeing what you want to see. Last year there were several comments that given reps he's also a gold glove caliber shortstop. He made tons of great plays at shortstop in the minors and his range is such that he'll make better defenders out of the third baseman, second baseman and left fielder because they can all move a step or two away. I honestly think you are trying to justify a horrible take. I may be grumpy this evening, but I'm not making things up. The SP.com writeup on him says pretty much exactly that. "Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond, but is best in center field, where projects as plus-plus to elite." Then we interpret differently, potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond doesn't say merely above average to me. Projects best in center field doesn't limit other possibilities but he is plus plus now there. Nobody is arguing that. Hamilton is a below average hitter and defender and always will be. At best he's an emergency up and down guy.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:17:27 GMT -5
By the end of the year, Rafaela, not Story or Mayer will be thought of as the shortstop of the future.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:07:50 GMT -5
I don't think he was waiting for you to punch that ticket. There were a few bizarre takes on the board about his defense when he'd played two games at the position. That's a play only a handful of shortstops could make, and one of them is out for the year. The argument has never been that he can't play shortstop. The scouting consensus is that he's merely above average at SS, but an elite, borderline 80-tier defensive CF. If the bat comes around no one will question him at SS, but he hasn't shown nearly enough with the bat for above average defense at SS to cut it; he has earned every bit of his -0.6 fWAR thus far, mostly due to his offensive limitations.
Until recently the Sox did not have enough healthy outfielders to obligate a Rafaela move to the infield, so this was actually a talking point. Now with 5 healthy OFs, a threadbare IF, and Yoshida already being benched excessively there's no decision to be made. Even if he's replacement level, he's clearly the best man for the job defensively and the Sox need to get their OF bats in the lineup. I think you are seeing what you want to see. Last year there were several comments that given reps he's also a gold glove caliber shortstop. He made tons of great plays at shortstop in the minors and his range is such that he'll make better defenders out of the third baseman, second baseman and left fielder because they can all move a step or two away. I honestly think you are trying to justify a horrible take.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 21:54:35 GMT -5
I need a nap badly, but the first thing I'm doing when I awake is to look at the degree of fastball reduction for each pitcher. If Crawford and Houck have the least change, that would be telling. Well, this is not reassuring. The number is the % of pitches other than fastballs (4-seamers and sinkers)
Name 2003 2004 Added Whitlock 47.1 77.3 30.2 Pivetta 49.4 67.2 17.8 Bello 43.0 60.3 17.3 Houck 60.5 71.0 10.5 Winckowski 57.6 67.5 9.9 Crawford 60.8 70.6 9.8
This actually reinforces the stamina take since the two least and single most changed (Houck, Crawford & Whitlock) all worked on stamina this past off season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 21:45:32 GMT -5
Well that was insane. Starting to think Rafaela might be able to handle the infield after all. I don't think he was waiting for you to punch that ticket. There were a few bizarre takes on the board about his defense when he'd played two games at the position. That's a play only a handful of shortstops could make, and one of them is out for the year. Takes on Rafaela's defense are a wee bit bizarre.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 20:30:06 GMT -5
To break it down for the stat guys.....
Sox pitchers did well because they threw strikes.
Guardian pitchers got hit hard because they threw strikes.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 20:09:55 GMT -5
Let's be honest here, we all know deep down that Bailey bought a bag of Tampa magic dust. It's the only plausible explanation.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 20:07:12 GMT -5
A reminder that Cleveland’s starter tomorrow, Triston McKenzie, has a 5 ERA and is pitching with a torn ligament in his elbow. Which means that’ll he’ll throw a 7 innings 2 hits shoutout lol Yeah, like the Criswell/Carrasco matchup.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 19:40:22 GMT -5
No walks for the staff.
1st baseman ? We don't need no stinkin' 1st baseman.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 18:39:08 GMT -5
Regardless how how it turns out, my favorite game is a 0-0 game where the entire game could come down to one pitch, literally every pitch you are going to see. Credit to Lively, one pitch down the middle is the difference so far.
My second favorite game is 1-0 games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 18:17:15 GMT -5
a quick inning is exactly what Houck needed.
Interesting, all three singles were by left handed batters with 2 strike counts and they too the ball the other way. Maybe Houck should pitch inside on those occasions.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 14:48:59 GMT -5
Putting a claim on Cooper seems like a no brainer to me.. I'm guessing a claim isn't going to get it. The Sox will need to trade something not on the 40 man.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 14:14:17 GMT -5
That's in the MLB though, Kavadas has a 32% K Rate in AAA so far on his life, and actually had an even higher K rate in AA. How many guys have an >30% K rate in AAA and are able to be average MLB hitters? (Serious question, I have no idea, but my sense is it is a low number). Before Dalbec's good MLB stretch in 2020-2021 he struck out <25% of the time across AA and AAA in 2019. Well again, "strikes out a lot" =/= "Dalbecian." In a big sample last season Dalbec struck out 34% of the time at AAA and he seems to have deteriorated since then. Kavadas is at 30% in AAA this season, and he also has higher BB rates than Dalbec ever did. I wouldn't expect Kavadas to be an average MLB hitter. But that's a much higher bar than "better than Dalbec." (I'm not even trying to argue for Kavadas to get called up; just that there's a reasonable case that he'd be a better hitter right now than Dalbec.)
Kavadas is first base only.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 11:05:43 GMT -5
If we care about Rafaela we should not play him at shortstop, just given the curse and all. I believe Rafaela has a 60 grade in curse breaking. It's a skill. A lesser grade and he would have been involved in the O'Neil/Devers collision.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 23, 2024 9:34:05 GMT -5
Now I've seen where Crawford, Whitlock and Houck all worked on stamina this past off season. I don't know about Bello or Pivetta. His emergence this season is due to a multitude of factors. Here are a few: Improved strength and conditioning in the offseason that has allowed him to gain stamina with pitches and increase his pitch count; increased aggressiveness with pounding the zone; and, of course, the Andrew Bailey effect.
Boston’s new pitching coach is clearly getting the most out of his staff, which explains why the Red Sox are 13-10 despite dealing with a barrage of injuries.
In truth, though, a lot of what is happening with Crawford is progression through the experiences he’s gained. www.mlb.com/redsox/news/kutter-crawford-off-to-historic-start-to-2024-season
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2024 15:45:38 GMT -5
I would kinda like this current pace to continue with the Red Sox finishing in last place with 92 wins just so I can watch which people bring up the "last place 4 out of 5 years" stat I predicted 92 in the predictions thread but, not at all this way, health was a key for me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 21, 2024 15:35:10 GMT -5
Slaten's first win.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 20, 2024 19:39:03 GMT -5
At his age and with his experience, Lugo should stand out as the best player on a low A team. Different Lugo Brain dead...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 20, 2024 18:38:58 GMT -5
With Bernie and Booser, is Joely necessary? I'm hoping they DFA him when Grissom returns. A healthy veteran lefty with a track record should fetch a decent non 40 man player.
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