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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 21:01:58 GMT -5
Reaching out. Touching you. So good! So good!!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 20:55:47 GMT -5
Blow it up. Play the kids. Deal every veteran you possibly can.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 20:47:59 GMT -5
One shot after another. Except for the two balls Tele-Tubby mis-played.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 20:43:56 GMT -5
Let's go Red Sox!!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 20:40:35 GMT -5
Can you believe it?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 15:22:17 GMT -5
All the talk about Cherington vs. Theo is kind of crazy and there's a lot of selective memory. It's probably easier to build a WS champion around a 28 year old Papi and 30 year old Manny. What they're doing now is trying to build a WS around a bunch of 22,23 year olds and a 39 year old Papi. That we agree on. We also can't do over the slot signings in the draft. We also can't get all those supplemental picks Theo was great at accumulating. MLB evaluation is imperative. Unfortunately, it appears to be the weakness of the current front office. Not sure how you fix that.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 13:41:55 GMT -5
Would this be allowed? Even if not quite ethical. Let's say there is a pretty good 16 year old prospect who wants to sign with us. He wants more than allowed. Say, this 16 year old has an older brother. Sign both for the max allowable. It benefits their family. We get our guy.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 13:39:37 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 12:22:33 GMT -5
Fat guys doing well encourages me. C'mon Sandoval!!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 6:42:22 GMT -5
As far as hoarding prospects, it is near certain that after the 2013 season, Cherington could have had Stanton for Xander + (JBJ? Owens?). Assuming he could have signed Stanton to a reasonable extension (admittedly uncertain), I make that trade with no hesitation, even if with a heavy heart Stanton to the Red Sox was a Boston Media Myth. If Miami wanted to deal him, why haven't they?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 12, 2015 6:41:20 GMT -5
So, 28/30 teams are doing it right. A team with our payroll shouldn't miss the playoffs 5 times in 6 years. Poor evaluation of major league talent is our problem. Let guys like; Beltre and Lester go. Signed bums like; Crawford, Sandoval and Lackey. Poor trades. Reddick, Iglesias. Those moves were all made because the figures backed them up. Why did they fail? The person making the decision has to know more than stats. In fact, they were mostly made in defiance of the figures. This former statistical consultant for the team excoriated one Cherington trade after another as being statistically indefensible, to the degree that it got written up in ESPN The Magazine and to the degree that the F.O. tweeted around my take-down of the Iglesias trade on SOSH, and my former colleague Tom Tippett gave me the courtesy of explaining the rationale behind it. Cherington has had success trading for minor league talent (ERod, Holt) where scouting is the dominant tool of assessment. I don't know why he's done such a poor job of using statistical analysis to judge MLB talent -- whether he's getting good analysis and ignoring it, or getting insufficient analysis. I do know that at one point Lucchino believed that it wasn't cost effective to spend any money at all paying statistical consultants to supplement Bill James and Tippett. I think it was after last season that Henry talked about re-emphasizing analysis. I rather suspect that for the previous five years, everyone doing analysis other than James (who is a visionary out-of-the-box thinker but not someone who actually does in-depth statistical analysis) and Tippett (who also has the full-time job of coding all the team's in-house software) was an intern or the equivalent. If they've hired anyone heavy-duty since, a) they've kept it under the radar as they didn't do with Voros McCracken and myself, and b) it's probably too soon to have started reaping the benefits -- and that probably includes the time it would take for Cherington to start trusting the new intel (if there is indeed any). We're using statistics to make our decisions. And, we should. Don't get me wrong there. I don't feel we're incorporating other tried and true scouting with it. Physical condition of athlete. What serious look at Sandoval makes someone comfortable giving that slob 5 years? I don't need stats to tell me Porcello isn't a front of the rotation starter. He is a borderline two at best. Hanley was a clubhouse problem in Miami and LA. The whole world knew that. We are asking him to do something different and didn't appear concerned about it. While many writers thought he might be an odd fit. Every interview I've heard with Cherington he defends the move by throwing out the; "Our projections show he's going to be a good fit here. " He may be using stats, just not the right ones. And, in all honesty, We made a ton of projection mistakes under Theo too. Lugo, Renteria, Clement, Dice-K, Lackey and Crawford come to mind. What stats did the front office use for those moves? Theo was able to make up for those bad signings because of our drafting and player development; Lester, Papelbon, Buchholz, Pedroia, Ellsbury and others used as trade chips. He had a great feel for in-season needs. Played his hunches well. 1yr deal for Beltre. Harder to draft and develop now with slotting and not as many supplemental picks. So, BC does it have it more difficult. He's been awful though. I'd rather have you making the call. You seem to have a feel and stats accumen. I thought Iglesias high BA was a result of babip luck. Doesn't appear so. Your pumping Wright's tires looks good to. What stats are we using now, and maybe more importantly. Which ones are we ignoring?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 22:43:30 GMT -5
The 30+ guys is an organizational decision. Whomever our GM is will have to live with it. Thso also used a large budget to assist in his trades, free agent signings and over-slot signings and supplemental pick manipulation. 1. John Henry doesn't want long term deals to the 30+ guys. 2. Small-market teams are locking up stars. Revenue sharing. 3. New slot system 4. Hard to get extra picks now. A lot of the things Theo figured out are no longer as easy to do. Talent evaluation of MLB players is crucial. BC sucks at it. are there more stars being locked up by small market teams? I don't see it. Greinke, Price, Donaldson and Heyward have all been traded lately and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone else Grienke was a free-agent signing in LA. Our payroll was tapped out that off-season. You can have Heyward. I already explained Donaldson. Price is a rental.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 22:28:41 GMT -5
I consider BC and Theo the same. Theo was better at his job. Don't forget a big payroll has helped both of them. Our stats-based studies show you shouldn't sign pitchers like Price to long-term deals. Ben is the "scouting and stats" guy you want, unless you want a clown like Amaro who uses scouting way more than stats. I preferred Theo, who had no scouting background, yet won 2 championships and kept us competitive every single year. I think too much scouting which leads to prospect hoarding is the problem, not not enough scouting. Also, what's your problem with not handing out big contracts to over 30s? The 30+ guys is an organizational decision. Whomever our GM is will have to live with it. Thso also used a large budget to assist in his trades, free agent signings and over-slot signings and supplemental pick manipulation. 1. John Henry doesn't want long term deals to the 30+ guys. 2. Small-market teams are locking up stars. Revenue sharing. 3. New slot system 4. Hard to get extra picks now. A lot of the things Theo figured out are no longer as easy to do. Talent evaluation of MLB players is crucial. BC sucks at it.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 22:20:03 GMT -5
Oh good, the "Ben Cherington hoards prospects/well what would you have done" debate. It had been a couple weeks. Speaking of prospects. What are your thoughts on JBJ? He really seems to be finding himself in AAA. Merloni has always said being rushed hurt him. Do we give him an extended look? I would.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 22:10:37 GMT -5
We didn't have the 3b Beane wanted for Donaldson. Why do you think he wanted Lawrie? He needed a 3b in return. TB hasn't traded with us or NYY. I'm guessing their asking price from us is high. Also, Price is gonna be a free agent. Why would a last-place team trade for a rental? we had Holt, he's not as good but we could've given more prospects. We could've extended price. We could've traded for and extended Greinke. Also you didn't answer my quedtion. If stats are the problem, how come the "stats nerd" with no scouting background (Theo) did 1000x better than the former Scout? I consider BC and Theo the same. Theo was better at his job. Don't forget a big payroll has helped both of them. Our stats-based studies show you shouldn't sign pitchers like Price to long-term deals.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 21:59:56 GMT -5
Small market teams are able to keep their stars now. It's harder to trade for them. We did a study that said free-agency and 30 something's isn't the way to go. Try the shorter term free agents. Not, the 7-8 year guys. What superstar could we have gotten if we didn't hoard prospects? Donaldson, Price, etc We didn't have the 3b Beane wanted for Donaldson. Why do you think he wanted Lawrie? He needed a 3b in return. TB hasn't traded with us or NYY. I'm guessing their asking price from us is high. Also, Price is gonna be a free agent. Why would a last-place team trade for a rental?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 21:49:02 GMT -5
So, 28/30 teams are doing it right. A team with our payroll shouldn't miss the playoffs 5 times in 6 years. Poor evaluation of major league talent is our problem. Let guys like; Beltre and Lester go. Signed bums like; Crawford, Sandoval and Lackey. Poor trades. Reddick, Iglesias. Those moves were all made because the figures backed them up. Why did they fail? The person making the decision has to know more than stats. You realize Beltre was way more supported by the stats than Lackey. No stats guy would ever tell you to trade talented young players for relievers. Its not the freaking stats, its that we used to add a superstar through trades once every 4 or so years, and it just hasn't come because were prospect hoarding Small market teams are able to keep their stars now. It's harder to trade for them. We did a study that said free-agency and 30 something's isn't the way to go. Try the shorter term free agents. Not, the 7-8 year guys. What superstar could we have gotten if we didn't hoard prospects?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 21:34:43 GMT -5
So, 28/30 teams are doing it right. A team with our payroll shouldn't miss the playoffs 5 times in 6 years. Poor evaluation of major league talent is our problem. Let guys like; Beltre and Lester go. Signed bums like; Crawford, Sandoval and Lackey. Poor trades. Reddick, Iglesias. Those moves were all made because the figures backed them up. Why did they fail? The person making the decision has to know more than stats.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 21:25:48 GMT -5
Our stats orientated front office is the reason we're in the predicament we are. #truth False, our stats oriented front office is the reason we've won 3 world series' in the past 10 years. The reason we're in the predicament is the prospect hoarding of Cherington. Why the hell didn't he go get Donaldson instead of Sandoval? Not just hindsight. We didn't have a 3b Beane wanted. We've also missed the playoffs 5 times in 6 years. Something ain't working.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 21:20:53 GMT -5
Our front office does a good job with amateur talent. They are absolutely pathetic at evaluating MLB players and roster composition. We really need a professional GM. Someone who has a scouting background and knows the numbers. Not just a numbers geek who thinks that's all that matters. I disagree about the scouting background. I think we need a stats oriented GM who isn't a prospect hoarder like Ben is. Theo was great for us Our stats orientated front office is the reason we're in the predicament we are. #truth
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 21:06:53 GMT -5
Alright, so we can't even fall back on the "they're only 3 games back in this weak division" thing anymore. This team has a bad record, bad scored/allowed numbers, and now they're buried in the standings. I like to think I'm one of the more patient baseball fans out there. I don't tend to get too worked up over a bad game or a bad week or even a bad month. But... this team is just bad. Our front office does a good job with amateur talent. They are absolutely pathetic at evaluating MLB players and roster composition. We really need a professional GM. Someone who has a scouting background and knows the numbers. Not just a numbers geek who thinks that's all that matters.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 20:51:44 GMT -5
How can Ben Cherington look John Henry in the face?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 20:35:42 GMT -5
Out-executed by the Orioles yet again. Where have we seen this before? Sandoval hands them a run. 2-base error, move the runner to 3rd on a ground, bring him in on a sac fly. Mookie leads an inning off. Swihart, can't get him over. We don't score. There's your ballgame folks.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 20:23:06 GMT -5
And why bring in Tazawa now?!? Maybe, trying to win the game for 200 Alex.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 11, 2015 20:11:22 GMT -5
K/BB rate isn't as important as it used to be. Everybody strikes out now. So, getting a few of those is no biggie. See, Porcello last night in the first. CC Sabathia has over a 4/1 ratio. How's that working out for him? If people can hit you, doesn't matter if you're not walking anyone. Doesn't mean squat. Giving up 3 bombs, yeah. That's a little more important.
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