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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 14:56:32 GMT -5
I don’t think there is much of a chance that the Sox go with 4 LHP’s in the rotation next year, for that reason I think Porcello, Wright and Buchholz likely stay, and one of Pomeranz or Rodriguez is traded for a bat. I’d be happy if it was Pomeranz, but everything we know about DD says it will be Rodriguez, which sucks (just another former top prospect to say goodbye to). I suspect that you are right about Pomeranz but assuming he comes back healthy (did his injury impact his pitching?) I am curious as to how he would do. Did his substandard health affect his command or endurance? I liked him out of the pen ahead of Ross. I liked Buch from the pen too particularly as he is another guy that could go multiple innings. I don't want to trade Rodriquez as the potential is enticing. If it could be done, I would be in favor of trading Price to free up a lot of bucks. He clearly is not a 31M pitcher...maybe a No 3 guy....and I could see a career path similar to Sabathia. Despite being terrible from 2014-15, Sabathia has still given the Yankees about 15M in surplus value, so it's not like he was an albatross for the Yankees.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 13:48:31 GMT -5
So we get to keep Benintendi, who is still technically a rookie and could easily be considered the best prospect in baseball. Devers, who was great from June through the end of the season. Groome, who probably should have been the #1 pick in the draft. Plus we still have guys like Travis, Dalbec and Swihart. I don't see how anyone could hate this deal.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 13:35:40 GMT -5
If Swihart is part of the deal I'm going to be a bit disappointed. They butchered his value this season, and to have him as the third piece in any deal is pretty rough. I still think he's going to be a very, very good player. EDIT: Nightengale tweeted that he wasn't involved. I am glad for that. Still evaluating how I feel about this deal. Feels risky to me, but needing Moncada to get Sale isn't crazy, and I'd been advocating selling high on Kopech. Looks like we get to keep our Swihart, too: @chriscotillo 22s22 seconds ago Per @ken_Rosenthal and @bnightengale, White Sox getting: Moncada (1), Kopech (5), Basabe (8), Diaz (28) in Red Sox' system. Hmm.. not bad. I like this trade.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 13:25:52 GMT -5
On the bright side, the rotation is now as dominant as you can get. 4 lefties though, that could be a problem.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 13:19:40 GMT -5
Gotta think they have to keep Devers and have a lot of faith in him if they're willing to lose Moncada.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 13:17:30 GMT -5
I'll withhold judgement until we have the other two names. But man, losing Moncada really stings.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 13:16:14 GMT -5
Oh god. Prepare for the overreaction of a lifetime.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 11:15:50 GMT -5
So Milwaukee is also getting either a PTBNL or cash? I wonder if DD has the mentality of, "This is the guy I want, give me a price and I will pay it."
I'm cool with this trade, but how many trades has DD completed where we gave up multiple players while only receiving one player back?
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 10:38:06 GMT -5
Assuming Thornburg pitches like he did last year, the back of the bullpen could be pretty good this year. Him, Kelly, and Kimbrel is a great combo.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 9:52:13 GMT -5
Probably an overpay, but it's not like the Sox are giving up any huge pieces. I just hope he doesn't end up like one of the many relievers who came to Boston and then got hurt or played terribly (Bailey, Melancon, Hanrahan, Smith.)
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 6, 2016 9:18:16 GMT -5
Pennington is one of the guys going to Milwaukee.
Edit: And Shaw? Wasn't expecting that.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 22:59:23 GMT -5
Even going off the estimate that 1 war is about 7M on the FA market, that'd still put him at 24.5M in total value. And as you said, he just played his age 23 season. He had a career low babip, by a huge margin, as well as several other career lows in other statistics, Entering his age 24 season. Is it really that crazy to think he can't be a consistently elite player, especially taking into account his tools and what he's already accomplished? If he even approaches his 2015 level over the next two seasons, I could easily see a team signing him to the largest contract ever. His power also dropped dramatically. You're right. It did drop, by a noticeable amount. His iso was his lowest ever, excluding 2014 when he only played in 100 games. He also had several other career lows that *could* be alarming. I'm not trying to defend Harper or his contract demands, which by the way was only reported by an unnamed Nationals executive. My point was that over the next two years, if he even approaches his 2015 level of production, I could actually see a team giving him 10/400M.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 22:46:51 GMT -5
I really hope Chicago trades Sale soon. It reminds me of when Cole Hamels was on the block from Philly. You see so many ridiculous proposals on elite players that it gets redundant hearing about them. Just like when, I think last year, Jon Heyman suggested the Sox should trade Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Espinoza, and one other piece for Jose Fernandez. I know it's Heyman, but still. That's insane. A few days ago I saw a comment on MLBTradeRumors(?) where someone thought we should trade JBJ, Moncada, Rodriguez, Kopech and one more piece, and said if that's not the package Chicago gets, they're getting ripped off. Not only is that ridiculous, but it's borderline annoying and makes me never want to read comments on any article. Yea it's getting crazy. White Sox fans on ESPN think they are going to get way more than they will. It also seems everyone is way undervaluing Bradley. I understand that Bradley's track record is not that of Sale, so his value is less, but it's not Moncada, ERod, Kopech and one more piece less. That's so crazy! I'm thinking Moncada, ERod, Kopech and one more piece is the price of Sale without Bradley included. Honestly I don't think even that package would be worth it to get Sale. But then again, I just don't want to give up on Moncada. I don't see how he isn't the starting 3B on the Red Sox by mid to late season, barring a massive decline in his production so far. Then you add in the loss of Rodriguez, who looks like a potential 2-3 starter, and Kopech who could easily close if his change doesn't develop. I would much rather sell high on Bradley, include Rodriguez, and one other good piece. If it's anything more than that, I don't see why the Sox would want to trade for him.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 20:53:37 GMT -5
Just because the Yankees were morons with ARod, doesn't mean that you add x% to his contract to come up with the contract the next moron team has to pay to sign Harper. He gets hurt way too much for a young guy for me to think he'll be worth anything close to what he'll get. It's also concerning he only had a 3.5 fWAR season last year. Guys who make $40 million shouldn't be doing that in their age 23 season. Even going off the estimate that 1 war is about 7M on the FA market, that'd still put him at 24.5M in total value. And as you said, he just played his age 23 season. He had a career low babip, by a huge margin, as well as several other career lows in other statistics, Entering his age 24 season. Is it really that crazy to think he can't be a consistently elite player, especially taking into account his tools and what he's already accomplished? If he even approaches his 2015 level over the next two seasons, I could easily see a team signing him to the largest contract ever.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 20:29:05 GMT -5
Looking good, Pablo. I hope he succeeds this year. I'll be the first to admit that I was totally wrong about him being done.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 19:40:30 GMT -5
John Farrell may not be a great manager, and hell, he may not even be a decent one. But he's managing a team that, despite all our criticisms towards him, just finished in 1st place. While I personally think he is not a good manager, we could certainly have worse. This team is good enough to win, even when he makes in game decisions that are obviously poor.
And as stated above, not many teams let their manager get to just one year left. Do any of us want to hear a year of reporters asking Farrell about his contract situation, and if he'll be managing the team next year?
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 18:51:13 GMT -5
I think the issue with that report is that even hearing someone wants a 400M contract seems ridiculous. It sounds totally absurd that any player could be worth that much, but for a player that young and that talented, is it actually a crazy amount? I don't think so.
I know its not quite an equal comparison, but if Trout was a free agent right now wouldn't his expected contract be worth at least 400M? In his case we're talking about a player whose worst full season, according to fWar, was 7.9.
If Harper even approaches what he did in 2015, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get 400M, or at least get very close to it.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 18:23:02 GMT -5
I understand the point you're trying to make, but I definitely think that the last 2-3 years of his contract could be a huge problem for the Sox. Sure, he'll probably have excess value for at least a couple more years, but then what? His last 3 years are going to cost 94M. I know we have been spoiled by Papi putting up elite numbers all the way until 40 years old, but how many guys are worth 30M per year from ages 38-40? I think that's fundamentally correct in general. Position player free agent signings for aging players have become hard to justify, especially in the later years. But this was not a free agent signing, and the question is, what would the free agent market have been now? If it would have been more, given the increase in projected revenues, and the increase in salary caps, than there could actually be excess value in this particular case. Also, as you suggest, Miggy may look like the kind of player who holds his value well as he ages, not dependent on speed or traits that decline with age. And (as you suggest) the Red Sox may have some inside knowledge about keeping a player like Miggy (i.e., Papi) healthy as he ages. That's certainly a possibility. I suppose at this point, assuming the Sox would be willing to trade for him, there's two things to wonder about. What would we have to give up, and how much of the contract will Detroit cover? I think that's where negotiations would stall, as I think the Sox would want a sizable part of his contract tract to be covered, and I also don't see them wanting to trade any of their top 5 prospects. Edit: just to be clear, I was not suggesting the Sox know a way to help players who are that age. What I meant was that Ortiz is an anomaly, who just put up arguably the best season ever for a 40 year old.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 18:07:40 GMT -5
Cabrera is great and all, but the length of his contract as well as the money he's owed is just too much. I expect him to still be a top 1B for the next several years, but what happens during the last few years of his contract? He'll be making 30-32M for the rest of his contract, excluding this year when he'll make 28M. Does anyone really think he'll be worth that much for the back end of his contract? Just depends on how much MLB revenues keep going up. Right now revenues are great and getting better, as the NFL plummets. The new CBA just magically happened, because there is a rapidly expanding pie of revenue. Project that out for 7 years and Miggy is a bargain with excess value. I understand the point you're trying to make, but I definitely think that the last 2-3 years of his contract could be a huge problem for the Sox. Sure, he'll probably have excess value for at least a couple more years, but then what? His last 3 years are going to cost 94M. I know we have been spoiled by Papi putting up elite numbers all the way until 40 years old, but how many guys are worth 30M per year from ages 38-40?
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 17:56:43 GMT -5
Uh, wanting to make a market-rate contract makes you a dickhead? Nah, he's been a dickhead for awhile. And quote me next time. I don't like Harper's personality and the way he comes off, which is what I assume you're referring to. But would it be totally out of the question for a 26 year old to get 10 years and the highest AAV and total amount of any player, ever? If his next two seasons are even close to what he did in 2015 he will probably get close to that amount.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 17:25:45 GMT -5
Cabrera is great and all, but the length of his contract as well as the money he's owed is just too much. I expect him to still be a top 1B for the next several years, but what happens during the last few years of his contract? He'll be making 30-32M for the rest of his contract, excluding this year when he'll make 28M. Does anyone really think he'll be worth that much for the back end of his contract?
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 17:09:13 GMT -5
I really hope Chicago trades Sale soon. It reminds me of when Cole Hamels was on the block from Philly. You see so many ridiculous proposals on elite players that it gets redundant hearing about them. Just like when, I think last year, Jon Heyman suggested the Sox should trade Moncada, Devers, Benintendi, Espinoza, and one other piece for Jose Fernandez. I know it's Heyman, but still. That's insane.
A few days ago I saw a comment on MLBTradeRumors(?) where someone thought we should trade JBJ, Moncada, Rodriguez, Kopech and one more piece, and said if that's not the package Chicago gets, they're getting ripped off. Not only is that ridiculous, but it's borderline annoying and makes me never want to read comments on any article.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 5, 2016 14:58:42 GMT -5
How low would EE's price need to go before it would make sense for the Sox to get him? I see the length of the contract being the issue here, so if he were willing to take something like 3/57-63M, would it be a wise investment for the Sox?
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 4, 2016 20:42:43 GMT -5
Holliday to the Yankees, 1 year/13M. I'm getting very worried that DD is waiting for Encarnacion's price to drop. I don't see how the Sox could pass on Holliday, or on Beltran for 1/16M. I really hope at this point he plans to use the DH slot to rest players, as has been suggested on this forum before. Why would the bold be a bad thing? EE is the best bat this offseason, and if you can get him on a good deal then I don't see why we wouldn't be in favor of that. It's not that I wouldn't want him on the team. I just can't see him signing for less than 3-4 years, and I think it would be somewhat of a waste to tie up both 1B/DH for the next several years.
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Post by rookie13 on Dec 4, 2016 19:15:44 GMT -5
Yankees sign Matt holiday. 1 year 13 million per Rosenthal. Just posted about this in the Non-Sox thread. At this point I'm hoping DD will utilize the DH spot to rest players.
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