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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 15, 2023 8:49:02 GMT -5
If you think Yamamoto isn’t coming here because Michelle Wu had a dinner party with her friends then idk what to tell you. The online political echo chambers are not real life Ohtani just signed in LA, it ain’t that much different than San Fran my guy. Ok then I guess Buster Posey doesn't know what he's talking about when he said the Giants were having issues attracting free agents because of what's going on in the city and that he thought it definitely affected Ohtani's decision. Posey said that drugs/homelessness may have had an affect on Ohtani's decision. Not because the SF mayor had a stupid party, also Buster Posey probably has absolutely no clue if it had anything to do with Ohtani's decision so what the heck are we even talking about here..
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 15, 2023 8:18:44 GMT -5
Part me thinks that the Sox just can't afford to not come away with Yamamoto this offseason but I also wouldn't really bet on it. I think Henry and Co. want a needle mover and YY is probably the only one left in FA. Montgomery is a good pitcher but he's not moving the needle. Then again I don't really care who moves the needle during the offseason so much if it doesn't move the needle of actual competitiveness in season.
If I had to guess I'd say they at least match whatever the highest offer is so in the end they offer him the most money but I would not be surprised if he decided to go elsewhere for slightly less. Which if they do offer him the most money that's all we can really ask for as fans, just put their best foot forward and if he turns it down and goes elsewhere at least they went down swinging.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 20:09:08 GMT -5
Highly doubt this has any effect on their pursuit of YY but perhaps they'll be slightly less inclined to go to the bottom dollar on him with glasnow on hand.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 19:56:27 GMT -5
Flaherty getting 14 mil seems ridiculous but that's the going rate for a capable SP I guess.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 18:25:00 GMT -5
Tyler mahle to the rangers I kind of wanted to see the Sox make a run at him. Had TJ last year so not going to be ready for much till 2025 but he's a good pitcher when healthy. Wouldn't have minded him on the Paxton type deal. $22 million plus five million of incentives ain't much of a bargain
Rangers are like $9 million under the luxury tax now I think
I hadn't seen the terms yet before I posted, I'm definitely okay with the sox not giving him that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 17:21:57 GMT -5
Tyler mahle to the rangers I kind of wanted to see the Sox make a run at him. Had TJ last year so not going to be ready for much till 2025 but he's a good pitcher when healthy. Wouldn't have minded him on the Paxton type deal.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 15:56:05 GMT -5
While technically sure this is all correct it's also leaving out a lot of context. Paxton was not really expected to pitch more than a handful of games if any in 2022 and in all honesty 1.1 bWAR in 19 starts and 96 innings is a relatively useful starter if extrapolated over the course of a full season. I'm not saying I want Paxton back but if it were a 1 year heavily incentive laden deal I'd be perfectly fine with him back as a rotation member. If it would take multiple years and a decent guaranteed amount then yes I'd be out on that. But can you extrapolate? Paxton’s last 9 starts, he had an ERA of 6.98. So if you had him go forward at that rate… his final numbers probably keep getting worse. Well yes therein lies the rub, I believe a good chunk of that can be attributed to his knee but with his durability it's not as easy as just writing off those results as due to injury. Add it to this already list of issues he has staying healthy. Paxton seems like a guy who probably needs a phantom IL stint at least once or twice a season so theoretically if a team had the depth to give him a couple week rest here and there to keep him fresh I do think we see something closer to the first 9-10 starts we got from Paxton.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 15:37:27 GMT -5
I don't do deep dives into this stuff like a lot of people do around here, but it is hard for me to reconcile talk of Paxton wearing a Sox uniform again, even as a fallback position. We have a new leader, the last person he should be considering is the guy who pitched 96 innings in 2 years for us (and 1.1 total bWAR). And when i say last, I mean, last. I would hope he has more creativity than to make that choice. While technically sure this is all correct it's also leaving out a lot of context. Paxton was not really expected to pitch more than a handful of games if any in 2022 and in all honesty 1.1 bWAR in 19 starts and 96 innings is a relatively useful starter if extrapolated over the course of a full season. I'm not saying I want Paxton back but if it were a 1 year heavily incentive laden deal I'd be perfectly fine with him back as a rotation member. If it would take multiple years and a decent guaranteed amount then yes I'd be out on that.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 13:46:34 GMT -5
I don't think there is any team in the league that qualifies as having 4 work horses capable of giving 150+ innings each? Yeah, that's a problem in today's game that needs fixing. Meanwhile the Sox having at least 4 workhorses, (162 innings is tame by the 180 - 225 inning workhorses from when i grew up, andiknow others here remember 300 inning guys), would be a huge competitive advantage. None of those bullpen wrecking bullpen games, less need for the cockamamie opener games, not having to dig into AAAA type starters as much. That's an advantage given that the Sox offense is good but hardly overwhelming unless O'Neill has a huge rebound season, and a defense that Hope's it can be average. A strong rotation eases the burden on a potentially good bullpen. No reason the top 4 Sox starters cant start 30 games and provide 162 plus innings. The only two SPs in FA I would feel comfortable betting on hitting 150 innings next year are probably Montgomery and Giolito because they've consistently done it the last few years. I don't disagree that I wish the game still had work horses all over the league that take the ball every 5 days and give you at least 6 innings but those days are over and I doubt they come back now. I don't disagree that it'd be a good advantage if the Sox staff had 4-5 SPs who you can bank on putting up 180 innings each but it's probably unreasonable to expect it the way baseball is played today. With that being the case if they have 8 guys who can give them 100 innings each that is probably a more reasonable ask. Certainly the hope there would be a few of those 8 guys have better years than that and put up more innings with good results but they have plenty of depth in the 3,4,5 starter department IMO that I'm not particularly worried about them having to dig into very many games with AAAA type starters assuming they sign 2 SPs, unless all hell breaks loose and they have awful luck with injuries.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 13:29:53 GMT -5
I find some of this kind of silly. The Red Sox need an ace and a solid starter or at worst, 2 guy capable of soaking up a combined 350 plus innings The let's bring back Paxton and let's stick Whitlock in the rotation talk misses the larger point that the Red Sox should be shooting for 750 plus innings from their top 5 starters. Relying on Paxton and Whitlock in the rotation is as foolhardy as hoping Sale fills the role of ace. I was suckered about those things last year. I wont be this year. They need to have at least 4 workhorses in the rotation if they want a shot at playing meaningful games in October.Pivetta and Bello are capable of providing innings. They need two other guys to do the same, but hopefully provide better quality pitching. The Red Sox have the money to afford two top flight starters. They need to flex their financial muscles and do so, regardless of the competition. They need to put down a huge offer on YY and be prepared to secure Montgonery who is right there in their own backyard. No excuses. YY might choose elsewhere but there's no reason not to secure Montgomery and then go out and get the next best guy which might be Imanaga or Giolito if they think he's better or even Snell who I'm not very high on, given his lack of innings and lack of command which make him worrisome for a top pitcher. But none of these injury prone cross your fingers type of guys. That's how you wind up with guys with 6 ERAs starting for you and bullpen games and worn out bullpens. The top 4 Sox starters should be able to qualify for an ERA title.I don't think there is any team in the league that qualifies as having 4 work horses capable of giving 150+ innings each?
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 13:13:35 GMT -5
If you think that the skepticism that Whitlock can start is a talent issue, I think you're misunderstanding the argument. No that's not what I think (or what I said, but I can see the confusion). I just don't buy the argument that he definitively can't stay healthy as a starter or that they'll be able to get more innings from him in the bullpen. Whitlock hasn't really been able to stay healthy in either role to date as far as I can tell outside of the original year they snagged him in the rule 5. Part of me says develop him as a starter since theoretically he offers more value in that role than to be a guy who pitches 2-3 innings every few days. Assuming the chances of getting injured in either role are roughly the same anyway. I'm sure someone a lot smarter than myself would have a better knowledge of what the theoretical odds are for injuries in SP vs RP though.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 13:02:47 GMT -5
I can see that argument, I guess I wouldn't be completely against Paxton so here I am flip flopping but I'd probably turn over just about every rock possible before circling back to him anyway. Yeah, I mean hopefully redsoxchamps is right and they snag two of the top tier starters. But assuming they have to drop down to the Giolito/Montas/Paxton/Flaherty/Ryu/Manaea tier for a second addition, I think maybe I like Paxton most out of those guys, especially given the presumed cost. Yea I could buy into that plan with the assumption that Paxton gets a 1 year deal perhaps with an option or something. While Giolito is probably the most "sure thing" out of that group to take the ball every 5th day and supply innings I would have to think Montas/Paxton/Flaherty/Ryu and maybe Manaea could/should be attainable with 1 year deals. That would keep them with the flexibility to take another bite at the apple next offseason while Giolito probably costs 20M for 3-4 years.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 12:48:59 GMT -5
Unless Paxton is coming cheap in terms of guarantees I have no interest in a reunion with him. I just don't think we can trust him at all to make enough starts to be a worthwhile addition. The way I'm thinking about this is: Seattle led the majors last season with 901 IP from their starters. The media was 840 IP. The Red Sox will have:
Sale Bello FA1 Pivetta Crawford Houck
Whitlock
If you add Paxton and get 80-100 innings out of him, you're counting on the above for 750-800 innings. Especially given their deep bullpen, I'm comfortable with that.
I can see that argument, I guess I wouldn't be completely against Paxton so here I am flip flopping but I'd probably turn over just about every rock possible before circling back to him anyway.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 12:30:10 GMT -5
Unless Paxton is coming cheap in terms of guarantees I have no interest in a reunion with him. I just don't think we can trust him at all to make enough starts to be a worthwhile addition.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 10:31:59 GMT -5
Nobody's spreadsheet is going to tell them that 6/160 for Jordan Montgomery is close to reasonable. None of the teams left give out wild contracts other than the Mets who don't seem like they're doing anything this offseason. Montgomery does not exactly seem like the kind of player to inspire a team to lose their mind. I disagree with this thought but we shall see soon enough, I don't know if it's great value for Montgomery but free agent contracts aren't necessarily always about value.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 10:01:55 GMT -5
Montgomery ain't getting $160 million I'm curious as to why you say this with certainty? It's been increasingly likely to me that he gets 6/150 so it doesn't take much to imagine a team tacking on an extra 10M to that, especially if there is deferred money.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 9:49:31 GMT -5
Giolito would be fine with me so long as he's the 2nd best SP they acquire this offseason. If he's their #1 SP addition then yea I wouldn't be too pumped. I want absolutely nothing to do with Flaherty.
If Breslow and Bailey are confident they can get Giolito back to pitching the way he did from 2019-2021 or even close to it then I'm all for it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 14, 2023 9:11:38 GMT -5
When it comes to Casas I am not worried about the bat one bit, he should be a top 5-10 offensive 1st baseman in the league for the foreseeable future. What he needs to improve on more than anything is his defense because from the metrics he was close to being a guy that should be seeing more DH PT than 1st base PT. I doubt any GGs are in his future but if he can get to just slightly below average then that should increase his value/WAR a good amount.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2023 16:44:34 GMT -5
Never a bad idea to have added depth at the C position but he had season ending surgery for his rotator cuff in April so not sure I'm seeing the point of this one. I'm guessing it's a minor league deal but still.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2023 15:59:02 GMT -5
I'd love to know who the personnel is, unless it's like Dave Roberts or something there is probably 0 chance they fire whoever it is assuming it's a coach anyway.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2023 15:12:58 GMT -5
Not sure about that part. I was listening to a podcast yesterday and they had Adam Jones, who played with him in Japan, as a guest and he basically said that he doesn’t think that money will be the biggest factor for where YY will choose to play. Per Bob Nightengale: " He is the anti-Ohtani. This guy loves the spotlight. He adores being the center of attention. He’s embraces the brightest lights. He’s into the latest fashion." www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/12/13/yoshinobu-yamamoto-cody-bellinger-top-remaining-free-agents-available/71903312007/Maybe if the Sox wheel in their 4 Trophies from the last 20 years into the room during the meeting, that will be appealing, but to echo a point today from Rosenthal, he's getting the $ figure he wants from wherever he wants to go at this point. If there is any truth to this then I'd have to imagine that would be a negative for the Dodgers. If he wants all the spotlight he can get he's not going to get the brightest spotlight possible being in Ohtani's shadow.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2023 14:45:22 GMT -5
I mean I feel like YY knows who plays for the dodgers so I highly doubt he's going to be swayed just because the dodgers star players helped pitch the team. It's going to come down to who pays him the most not who shows up to the pitch . Not sure about that part. I was listening to a podcast yesterday and they had Adam Jones, who played with him in Japan, as a guest and he basically said that he doesn’t think that money will be the biggest factor for where YY will choose to play. Maybe that's the case, not every player is swayed by the most money but more times than not that's what it comes down to.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2023 14:31:34 GMT -5
Uh... Jordan Montgomery, welcome to Boston! I mean I feel like YY knows who plays for the dodgers so I highly doubt he's going to be swayed just because the dodgers star players helped pitch the team. It's going to come down to who pays him the most not who shows up to the pitch.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2023 13:30:37 GMT -5
Glasnow/Margot to the Dodgers looks like it’s going to happen. I know the LAD pitching is still a bit thin, but reading between the lines, would this maybe imply that the LAD are not expecting to sign YY I would guess this wouldn't have all that much effect on it but perhaps they are doubting whether they'll be able to get him locked in and are hedging their bets so to speak by getting Glasnow. They would still need 1 if not 2 more SPs even after adding Glasnow as far as I can tell.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2023 12:06:05 GMT -5
All quiet on the Blake Snell front...too quiet. Rob Bradford has been barking up that tree, but there's been no new news in a long while. Not sure what his market is, but he seems sort of underrated compared to Montgomery and Yamamoto. Wouldn't be surprised if they cook up a sweet-looking deal for the NL Cy Young winner. He's been open that he wants to pitch for his hometown M's or, failing that, somewhere on that coast. I think it's YY or Monty or bust. On the plus side, Monty's wife doing a residency in Boston is a compelling draw for him... maybe it's YY and Monty... If he does sign with the M's I'd have to wonder if they would flip Ray for a bag of balls since theoretically Snell is going to cost 25M+ AAV and they already have Castillo signed for 24M. I would think they wouldn't necessarily want to have 3 pitchers taking up 70+M AAV when they also have guys like Kirby, Gilbert, Woo and Miller to take up the rest of the rotation for cheap. This thought has been thrown around a bit already in regards to Ray and originally I was apprehensive about the thought to put it mildly but I am coming around on the idea. A flier on Ray for 3 years seems an alright bet to make if he wouldn't cost anything in return. Heck perhaps they could even get the M's to throw in something for taking the salary.
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