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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 14:55:44 GMT -5
Are you complaining about minor league phase rule 5 picks? There’s a reason why they weren’t traded, they do not have trade value. The Red Sox had 7 players selected in the Minor League portion of the draft. There were multiple open spots on the AAA roster that could have been used to protect said pieces. Losing them for nothing is a curious decision, and it raises questions about why the front office didn't feel the need to expend the very small amount of energy to protect said players. Maybe they just suck, but those other teams don't seem to think so. There's no need to criticize people or be bewildered about their frustrations over these things. The minor league portion really isn't much if any different than the MLB portion when it comes to the value of these guys. I'm sure if there were trades to be made with any of the seven guys who were picked a trade would have been made but I don't see what rush teams would be in to make a trade for any of them when they know they're going to be available via the minor league portion of the draft.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 14:53:04 GMT -5
Murray says Yamamoto's market is "extremely extensive" and that it could even get close to $250 million $300 million is a Steven Cohen psyop imo Well I was on board for 10/300 to be honest so if it's closer to 10/250 then even more reason to open up that check book Mr. Henry.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 14:47:51 GMT -5
I have a really hard time with this concept of quickening free agency. The only way they could possibly do that is with a cap. Without a cap, there is no limit to any contract, so agents are always going to be slow to sign deals. Any concept to force deals to be signed quicker is going to favor the owners more than the players. I have an attention span of more than 5 minutes though, so I am probably in the minority of being fine with the offseason taking all of the offseason. Part of me would like a quicker offseason but if you think about what is the rush? So theoretically if all the big FAs signed before the end of December then what? We sit there for 3 months and wait for spring training anyway. I'm with you for the most part, let the offseason last the full offseason there is really no rush whether they get clicks and interest in December or if they get clicks and interest in January I don't see the difference.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 14:44:51 GMT -5
Respectfully, I don’t think it’s reactionary to think: “we were already in last place, and two teams ahead of us (in both the division and wild card) just got two of the best baseball players of their generation, and we haven’t made any major moves left - that’s not a great spot to be in.” Obviously we’re in wait and see mode on Ohtani - in addition to still a huge chunk of the free agent market left. Glad someone is saying this other than myself. I've been getting clowned on for being upset about division rivals improving while we do nothing. I was a big Bloom, Trust the Process kind of guy, but where is the "Urgency" we were promised this off-season while 2 of the top 5 players in baseball are joining (or on the brink of joining) divisional opponents?
Crazy that after two off-seasons of absolute garbage, despite being told that we would vastly improve, we're still getting told to just be patient.
It appears they weren't big players on Ohtani and after seeing whatever he's going to end up with I'm guessing we'll see why pretty quickly and in the case of Soto I'd have liked to have had him but the Padres clearly wanted ML ready pitching which the Sox don't really have to give away right now, at least not in the volume the Yankees did. I'm not happy to see Soto a Yankee and The Jays on the verge of adding Ohtani but that's where we are. Who that has signed yet are you upset the Sox didn't get? The Red Sox have no choice but to be patient while the Ohtani market finds it's end result and by all reports they are major players on Yamamoto the other big prize. What do you want them to do blow the doors off Yamamoto's market and offer him 10 years 400M?
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 14:40:20 GMT -5
I'm glad to hear this, similar to the Yamamoto stuff a few pages back it's basically something we already knew/assumed but still good to see it confirmed. Also I'm glad they aren't sitting there bidding against themselves, while I'd love a signing ASAP it's best they don't force it and end up with an overpay. Sometimes it's good to strike early and often and set the market and sometimes it's good to let it set itself. I'm sure the players who the Sox are interested in know the Sox are interested and hopefully in the case of a bidding war will come back to the Sox when it's time for the final bidding to come about.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 12:18:21 GMT -5
They also keep talking about their future 2B acquisition being a good defensive player, which would seem to rule out India, Polanco and Amed Rosario. It's kinda weird that they're just saying all this unless they have a deal in their back pocket for someone This is a good point, it kind of seems like maybe they have the framework of a deal in play already but perhaps it's dependent on FAs? If that's the case it would lead me to believe that perhaps one of Crawford/Houck/Pivetta would be the one going back to acquire said 2nd baseman? Just spitballing here anyway.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 12:08:58 GMT -5
While we all pretty much knew that they would be heavily involved on Yamamoto as it just makes too much sense for them not to be, still nice seeing it actually be reported that hey don't forget about these guys over in Beantown.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 12:06:59 GMT -5
I don't love Merrifield, heck depending on the day I don't even like the thought of adding him but I'm not going to predict a trade since that's just too hard a prediction and Merrifield with his ability to be at least an average 2nd baseman while also being able to log some time as a RHH OFer would be a pretty good fit for the roster in that regard.
I'm also hesitant to the idea of making a trade for a 2nd baseman since in order to get one worthwhile they're going to have to give up something worthwhile. So I'm wondering whether or not in the end if Merrfield and his 1.5 WAR for 2 years 18Mish would bring more value than theoretical 2-3 WAR trade piece that is going to cost something worthwhile (Houck,Duran,Crawford,someone in the 5-10 range on the farm etc.)
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 11:59:06 GMT -5
I like the idea of Whit Merrifield at second. There. I said it. Come at me. I'm pretty meh on the idea of adding Merrifield but he does seem like a pretty good fit all things considered. Can start at 2nd and can also pitch in as a RHH OF option which they obviously need both of those. Assuming a 1 or 2 year deal for him I'd be alright with it. I'd probably overall prefer to see a trade for a 2nd baseman but on the same hand, they would have to give something to get something worthwhile at 2nd so do I really want to see them give up anything of real value to plug into 2nd base vs just using some money to sign Merrfield? Perhaps not but with any trade it would depend on the price.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 11:53:52 GMT -5
Here's my more than likely way off base prediction of the 2024 lineup/rotation: C-Wong 1st-Casas 2nd- Merrifield SS-Story 3rd-Devers LF- Duran/Bader CF- Rafaela/Bader RF- Abreu/Bader DH- Yoshida
SP-Montgomery/Sale/Bello/Lugo/Crawford or Pivetta whoever wins the spot.
I put Bader in there as the backup to each OF slot as I think if he signs here health permitting he gets plenty of PT and is a pseudo starting OFer for them. Not saying some of these would be my preference but figured I'd toss out a prediction anyway.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 11:47:54 GMT -5
The whole Cohen flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto thing got overblown. It seemed many around the baseball landscape were kind of throwing their hands up and figuring oh yep he's definitely going to the Mets now. Here we are 2-3 days after the meeting and he hasn't signed, which correct me if I'm wrong he doesn't have to wait to sign. If memory serves me correct Yoshida signed rather quickly after he was posted. It seems if there was a godfather offer he couldn't refuse to be made to him Cohen didn't make it.
Mets are obviously a threat not going to say they aren't to sign him but I don't think their odds should be any higher than any of the group including Boston, LAD, Cubs, Giants and the Yankees.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 11:26:37 GMT -5
I do hope they are a little more motivated to getting Yamamoto wrapped up but short of that I don't really see what else I would hope that they do to play catch up. I can say with almost absolute certainty there is 0 chance they sign Yamamoto, Montgomery and Imanga and there's really no reason to unless they plan on shipping Bello out for a stud position player or something. I will say I'm all in on the hope that they decide we're offering Yamamoto the largest contract and if he goes elsewhere so be it but yes they really should put their best foot forward on Yamamoto and go from there. I don't get why they couldn't. They're a top 5 team in revenue. They reset their luxury tax and have some money off the books. The Red Sox were 14th in payroll last year. Red Sox 2023 payroll - $167,533,182 Yamamoto- 250/6 puts him at 35.5 Montgomery- 105/5 puts him at 21 Imanaga - 180/6 puts him at 30 That's an additional 86.5 million Payroll of 254 million. That puts them in 3rd in spending last year with all the taxes reset. This is just quick math, but they just saved money from Vedugo. In 2025 they're saving 7 million in Sale, then 20 the year after. Maybe there's a new big expense somewhere in there. I don't see those guys going for much more AAV than that. Henry needs to open his wallet. If Henry lands in the 230 million range then I'll be happy. I mean yea sure they could do it but the likelihood they do is almost certainly 0. Heck the likelihood they sign even two of them is probably close to 0 as well. I have 0 interest in giving Imanga $30M a year, I'd rather they give Yamamoto a 10 year 300M+ deal than 6 and you're probably 55M+ light on what Montgomery is going to get. They have more holes to fill than just signing 3 starters when they really only absolutely need one, two would be a good move but it's not needed and 3 would just be overkill. They have other holes to fill than signing 3 SPs.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 11:07:55 GMT -5
I see your rationale and I would stop short of saying it's irrelevant to me what other teams are doing especially in the division but I don't want to see them panic based off what other teams are doing. Stick to their plan and get done what they hoped to get done when the offseason started is still the best course of action. Making panicked moves based off other teams moves almost never works out in the end. Sure, panic is bad, but a more aggression could well be warranted as situations evolve. You don't sign Pablo Sandoval, but maybe do splash out for a David Price. Today, that could be signing Yamamoto and Montgomery and Imanaga; instead of retreating to the shallower end of the FA market after a single splash. I do hope they are a little more motivated to getting Yamamoto wrapped up but short of that I don't really see what else I would hope that they do to play catch up. I can say with almost absolute certainty there is 0 chance they sign Yamamoto, Montgomery and Imanga and there's really no reason to unless they plan on shipping Bello out for a stud position player or something. I will say I'm all in on the hope that they decide we're offering Yamamoto the largest contract and if he goes elsewhere so be it but yes they really should put their best foot forward on Yamamoto and go from there.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 10:38:59 GMT -5
If I was a betting man I say the Sox whiff on Ohtani and Yamamoto and sign Montgomery. Just seems to me to be where the chips are falling. I said to start the offseason I'd be plenty happy with Montgomery, SP acquistion #2 and some shoring up of the lineup/defense so I'm not going to change my tune now even though it wouldn't necessarily classify as a big splash in my eyes it'd be a start. I would've agreed at the start of the offseason, but to find we're playing in a division that newly acquired Soto, probably Ohtani, and possibly Yamamoto, raises the stakes for me in what I want to see us trying to do. "Like last year without the biggest flaws" seems less satisfactory when the competition is getting significantly better. I see your rationale and I would stop short of saying it's irrelevant to me what other teams are doing especially in the division but I don't want to see them panic based off what other teams are doing. Stick to their plan and get done what they hoped to get done when the offseason started is still the best course of action. Making panicked moves based off other teams moves almost never works out in the end.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 10:05:02 GMT -5
OF Depth isn't bad with Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Yoshida/Refsnyder if that is indeed who is still in the org come opening day. I want to see them add Bader if I had my pick of FA OFers. He feels like he fits with his RHH and good defensive ability in the OF. I'd be fine with Teoscar but I'm not really eager to pay him if his market ends up being close to what his projections are. Taylor for a 1 year deal wouldn't be bad either. I'd also take Duvall back as well. Long story short I don't really love the idea of a multi year deal with any of the FA OFers so I'm all for a 1 year stop gap deal with a RHH OFer. One guy gets hurt and then who comes up as the new DH and/or 4th OF? Do you bring Dalbec up and roll with just four? Hamilton? Agree though as currently constructed and based on projected deals I think I like Bader the most. Fair question, perhaps the answer is to sign some sort of decent AAAA OFer(s)?
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 9:54:09 GMT -5
I'll make Toronto a favorite based on the plane. There's a lot of rich people in the world though, could just be some guy who made a couple hundred million in real estate or something. Toronto is not a great baseball fit for Ohtani IMO. They already have a guy who needs to play DH, they're not likely to be a super spender that can absorb his salary and ignore the luxury tax, and their team is set for a crash in a couple years as the major league surplus value runs dry with a lousy farm system. It's Ohtani so I get it for the Jays but I'm right there with you in terms of long term fits. Ohtani almost assuredly would mean losing at least one of their young guys down the road if not more. Then again Vlad Jr hasn't really ascended in a way that we all expected yet so maybe they're alright with him leaving down the road. I would think they would want to keep Bichette at all costs though.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 9:51:18 GMT -5
I don't hate the thought of Rafaela being the CF to start the year. His great defensive ability gives him a solid floor in terms of WAR either way, he just has to hit semi decent in order to be a solid ML CFer. I'd hesitate to say he should be the starting CF without seeing what else they do because I would like a little more certainty in the lineup going into the season than an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu if they plan to put Yoshida at DH at all and ?-mark at 2nd base. Yeah Duran/Rafaela/Abreu is fun in concept but I'd really like some more certainty on the roster. Plus it feels like pretty poor depth. I'm not wild about any of the free agent outfielders at their likely contracts, so barring a trade I think bringing Duvall back is probably my preference, but if they could get Teoscar on a two year deal I'd be on board. Add: Taylor or Bader for CF I'd be good with too. OF Depth isn't bad with Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Yoshida/Refsnyder if that is indeed who is still in the org come opening day. I want to see them add Bader if I had my pick of FA OFers. He feels like he fits with his RHH and good defensive ability in the OF. I'd be fine with Teoscar but I'm not really eager to pay him if his market ends up being close to what his projections are. Taylor for a 1 year deal wouldn't be bad either. I'd also take Duvall back as well. Long story short I don't really love the idea of a multi year deal with any of the FA OFers so I'm all for a 1 year stop gap deal with a RHH OFer.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 9:48:42 GMT -5
Rosenthal says Montgomery back to Rangers is unlikely If I was a betting man I say the Sox whiff on Ohtani and Yamamoto and sign Montgomery. Just seems to me to be where the chips are falling. I said to start the offseason I'd be plenty happy with Montgomery, SP acquistion #2 and some shoring up of the lineup/defense so I'm not going to change my tune now even though it wouldn't necessarily classify as a big splash in my eyes it'd be a start.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 9:27:36 GMT -5
I did read earlier in the week that Ohtani signing was expected by Sunday but today sounds even better. Let's get this offseason moving!
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 9:25:14 GMT -5
I don't hate the thought of Rafaela being the CF to start the year. His great defensive ability gives him a solid floor in terms of WAR either way, he just has to hit semi decent in order to be a solid ML CFer. I'd hesitate to say he should be the starting CF without seeing what else they do because I would like a little more certainty in the lineup going into the season than an OF of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu if they plan to put Yoshida at DH at all and ?-mark at 2nd base.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 8, 2023 7:52:10 GMT -5
Gerrit Cole has an opt-out next year… but the Yankees also have the ability to exercise a team option to add a 10th year to void it. (I.e. like the Trevor Story deal.) If the Yankees get Yamamoto, maybe they let one of Soto/Cole (both Boras guys) walk after next year… but we also under-estimated their ability/desire to spend this off-season, a mistake I’m disinclined to make again. Speaking of big market teams willing to spend… if the Dodgers miss out on Shohei, do they just go ahead and gobble up like every remaining free agent? They have less money allocated for next year at this moment than the Rockies do! I still have my doubts the Yankees are going to go the last dollar on Yamamoto but at this point it wouldn't surprise me where as a week ago I'd have said no way that Steinbrenner Jr opens up his wallet that much this offseason. That being said I still see no reason that Yamamoto shouldn't be a Red Sox. Plenty of money to spend and basically 0 dollars allocated to the rotation past this season. If there was ever a guy and a time to make a giant SP addition via FA it is right now for the Sox. I'm at the point where I say just give Yamamoto a blank check and outbid everyone (within reason anyway), if he decides to sign somewhere else so be it. I can live with it if they put their best foot forward in negotiations, I will not be happy if I have to read that well they liked him but the bidding got too high.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2023 16:49:49 GMT -5
I'm not talking about this as an abstraction. I'm saying that Drohan is/was good enough to use a 40-man spot on, promising enough that you may regret losing him, close enough to the majors that he's got a good chance to stick, and that there were not roster constraints that stood in the way of that. I'm not saying that you should just fill up the 40-man roster because there are slots, I'm saying that you should put Shane Drohan on the 40-man roster and not lose him in the Rule 5 draft. To wit, I'd rather have Drohan than, and would DFA to protect him: Open slot 1 Open slot 2 WalterWeiss Dalbec Llovera Jacques Maybe Mata That's at least 8 spots on the 40-man. If all are filled by different people come camp? Fine. That's why I pushed back on the initial "I'd rather have Drohan than Gillaspie" thing because it's not necessarily a 1v1 right now and Gillaspie was clearly getting DFA at some point. It's that they easily could have protected him because of the number of spots they have, in theory. We'll see if he comes back. I'm skeptical. Walter to me is the one that's making me think well you kept him but not Drohan? I'm no expert far from it but watching Walter in the MLB this year and reading his scouting report compared to Drohan they seem kind of similar but Drohan has more projectability and is just 24 vs 27. It really seems to me that it'd have made way more sense to DFA Walter and protect Drohan. And as you point out it didn't need to be an either or scenario. With 2 open 40 man slots as why not give one to Drohan. Worst comes to worst if you want his spot later you trade him somewhere for a lotto ticket, instead they now are very much at risk of losing him all together. If I had to bet I'd say the ChiSox do keep him on their roster long enough to retain him.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2023 16:41:11 GMT -5
Guys I'm pretty sure they're not going to open the year $50 million below the luxury tax Ha I know that, I also know I'm just being impatient at this point and that overall they haven't really lost out on any FAs that they seem all that interested in but I was hoping the winter meetings would bring a flood of moves league wide but basically been crickets other than Soto. My problem I suppose is more so with the media than the Sox at this point which I don't know what I would expect, it is the media after all of course they're going to push the LAD, NYY and NYMs as they'll get the most clicks that way.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2023 16:34:23 GMT -5
I think the time has come to stop caring about the hot stove for a little while. Every update is “the big market teams with money to spend are looking to spend money on the best available players.” It’s gonna be like that until the deals are almost signed, I feel. I'm pretty much there with you at this point. Not really worth refreshing my google searches every hour or so hoping for news when the only reports seem to say the Dodgers, NYY and NYMs are interested in X,Y,Z Player and oh yea there's SF, Cubs and Red Sox poking around but eh they're kind of just there and now back to LAD, NYY and NYM news!
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 7, 2023 16:31:33 GMT -5
The $1M was last season (2023). This upcoming season (2024) $5M. 2025 $10M 2026 $15M 2027 $23M 2028 $23M 2029 $23M 2030 $23M club option Not exactly expensive for a guy who has put up 6.2 and 3.6 fWAR in 2022 and 2023. I don't really see why they'd want to trade him. I guess if they did it right now they'd get max value out of him but to trade for Gimenez right now probably costs one of Mayer/Anthony which I'm not on board to do. I do think Cleveland might look to flip him in 2026 when the contract ticks up in cost though.
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