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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 19:02:08 GMT -5
I can see how almost right down the middle might be a ball.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 19:00:21 GMT -5
When Crawford loses it, it seems like the sign is high arm side. Like he’s not finishing. His night should be over soon.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 17:19:50 GMT -5
Is Urias banged up? He looked like he twisted his knee a bit the other day.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 10:25:13 GMT -5
Best strike zone judgement for Abreu? That is exciting. He’s been super impressive so far in his cup of coffee. A combination of power and discipline is mouthwatering.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 10:23:21 GMT -5
It's more an example of how you should also consider context, not just raw WAR totals. He had bad defensive numbers his last year in Colorado, likely related to his arm injury which is now resolved (and already we have evidence that he is a good defensive shortstop again). I also wonder how much that weird defensive rating for 2021 might just have been wrong: he was -7 by OAA but +3.6 by UZR and +9 by DRS. I normally trust OAA more than the other metrics, but if it's the outlier (both relative to the other metrics and to other seasons for a given player) I would tend to doubt it.
As it is, if he can pull 2.7 fWAR with a 98 wRC+ and -7 OAA in 2021 that goes to show that a) he still adds considerable value with his baserunning, and b) the floor to add value at SS is pretty low and if he's not in full-on Chris Davis-style offensive decline he really shouldn't have too much trouble being a 2-3 WAR player at least.
Last thing, since we’ll agree to disagree… if Story is 2-3 WAR for his last years, his contract will be pretty well underwater. I guess I would like him to be worth what he got and the opportunity cost… which means he needs to be closer to 4 WAR in coming years, since he’s about $20 mill in the hole.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 10:19:36 GMT -5
They are not mutually exclusive. Part of my issue is that his signing was clearly a wrap on Xander. So it is not just a question of his production… it is the question of relative value. Is that his fault? No, no. But it means I’m less satisfied with the 2.5 WAR, because it is actually a step back. It isn’t like the whiffing is new, either. He averages nearly 200 Ks per 162 games for his career. And his OBA has been low for years. I am not a fan aesthetically. That is a preference thing. This does help clarify what I think several of us suspected - that your view of Story is not based on the merits, but on your general feelings about the front office letting home-grown players go.
That is the petty way of putting it. But it is about talent in the abstract. I don’t like unnecessarily replacing guys with slightly worse guys. Or , put differently, if you have a 9 man squad with expectations divided unevenly (as they must be), I hold each guy accountable for his slot. Story is filling a star slot, not a role playing slot. He was a big signing, playing a big position, etc. If he doesn’t hit, it puts more pressure on the rest of lineup. It isn’t crazy to imagine a 2024 OF of Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo. Casas at 1b. Devers at 3b. This means Story and whoever DHs are your big RH bats. He *has* to be good enough to keep the other team honest, or lefties are going to be a problem. He *can’t* be glove only, even if he is a very good glove. His slot is too important.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 9:40:13 GMT -5
You keep saying that as if things were fine before. His last year in CO his OPS+ was 102. Last year, 103. Now… I guess we’ll find out but it isn’t as if there aren’t signs his bat has just entered its decline. His best offensive season was 2018. And I guess it is also a little frustrating to sign a FA and then be told not to count on him for the first two years of his contract. I don’t necessarily look at that as a mitigating factor. Maybe his bad elbow should gave been accounted for with an incentive-heavy contract instead of burning money. A 102 OPS+ is a great with his base running and defense. He was 4.2 bWAR his last year in Colorado and was on pace to put up another 4 WAR year in 2022 before injuries. Teams thinking he is only a 3 to 4 WAR player is why he signed for only 140 million instead of $300 million like Corey Seager, Xander, etc. if he was still expected to be producing 7 WAR like when he was young he’d have received a contract twice the size. He was 2.7 fWAR his last year. That is a wide margin that exemplifies how wonky WAR can be.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 9:36:53 GMT -5
You keep saying that as if things were fine before. His last year in CO his OPS+ was 102. Last year, 103. Now… I guess we’ll find out but it isn’t as if there aren’t signs his bat has just entered its decline. His best offensive season was 2018. And I guess it is also a little frustrating to sign a FA and then be told not to count on him for the first two years of his contract. I don’t necessarily look at that as a mitigating factor. Maybe his bad elbow should gave been accounted for with an incentive-heavy contract instead of burning money. You and I seem to have similar concerns about Story's bat but then you keep taking this left turn into wanting to re-litigate the decision to sign him as a free agent. On one level, fair enough; but it kind of casts all your doubts about him as motivated by a desire to complain about the front office. They are not mutually exclusive. Part of my issue is that his signing was clearly a wrap on Xander. So it is not just a question of his production… it is the question of relative value. Is that his fault? No, no. But it means I’m less satisfied with the 2.5 WAR, because it is actually a step back. It isn’t like the whiffing is new, either. He averages nearly 200 Ks per 162 games for his career. And his OBA has been low for years. I am not a fan aesthetically. That is a preference thing.
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Post by manfred on Sept 5, 2023 8:40:11 GMT -5
it’s just funny to me- the team says they won’t depend on him this year and he himself tells people that he doesn’t think he’s up to his usual standards yet at the plate towards the end of his rehab assignment He then goes out and struggles and people are the shocked pikachu meme. Idk what to tell them ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You keep saying that as if things were fine before. His last year in CO his OPS+ was 102. Last year, 103. Now… I guess we’ll find out but it isn’t as if there aren’t signs his bat has just entered its decline. His best offensive season was 2018. And I guess it is also a little frustrating to sign a FA and then be told not to count on him for the first two years of his contract. I don’t necessarily look at that as a mitigating factor. Maybe his bad elbow should gave been accounted for with an incentive-heavy contract instead of burning money.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 23:36:28 GMT -5
The thing to me is he was signed with X next to him. Now he is the “star.” So while we are lowering expectations, we should also realize that hos role on the team has *increased* since he signed.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 22:34:18 GMT -5
The good news is, since Story came back the Red Sox are only 9th worst in fangraphs' Def rankings. Merely bad, not atrocious - hell yeah!
The bad news is, shortstop is a freaking cursed position this season, I don't know how else to explain it. Somehow even with an elite defender there (+3 OAA and +5 DRS in less than a month!) we are still racking up negative WAR at the position - because Story has hit worse than Yu Chang.
I worry a little... small sample size and he's coming back from injury, sure, but ericmvan likes to point out that even small sample sizes can be meaningful if the effect size is big enough; a sufficiently great performance over a short stretch can meaningfully indicate a good hitter. But shouldn't it work in the other direction as well - if the performance is that bad, no amount of caveats can make it completely meaningless...
My worry is going back to his last year in CO, the decline has been steady. And also that isn’t just putting up bad numbers but looking very bad. And the sample is getting less small.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 22:31:45 GMT -5
Totally. Look, finding an upgrade is going to be hard. And Casas will probably bat .350 and hit 55 HRs. Hell, he might steal 25 bases at this point! But they need to look at these proposed lineups as last resorts. They have money. They have positions that could be better. They have players of value they could trade. Go for it. And, as I’ve said elsewhere, a lot depends on how the season ends. If they end on a down note and bring back the same lineup or less, I imagine an absolute fan/media mutiny. I don’t think that bothers folks on the board, but the noise will reach the owners. Do they ignore it? The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL in runs scored, but they are 11th in ERA…. These are not end all stats, but it is just something to show what everyone already knows…..that is that the starting pitching needs at least two solid to top half of the rotation arms. 1) Bello, 2) ?, 3) ?, 4) Sale, 5) Crawford. Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta can be long men/swing to sub in when spot starts and/or injuries happen. The bullpen will be solid to very good if it is not over taxed and if the long men can stay in that roll as the bullpen looks good already. I’m definitely in favor of improving the pitching. Not zero sum.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 22:04:14 GMT -5
I'm pretty surprised so many people seem to be content to go into next season with an offense that's weaker than the current lineup. Totally. Look, finding an upgrade is going to be hard. And Casas will probably bat .350 and hit 55 HRs. Hell, he might steal 25 bases at this point! But they need to look at these proposed lineups as last resorts. They have money. They have positions that could be better. They have players of value they could trade. Go for it. And, as I’ve said elsewhere, a lot depends on how the season ends. If they end on a down note and bring back the same lineup or less, I imagine an absolute fan/media mutiny. I don’t think that bothers folks on the board, but the noise will reach the owners. Do they ignore it?
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 17:52:04 GMT -5
I like Kenley, and he’s been pretty great. But I do worry year 2 of the contract has a huge risk of an injury-marred season. Not complaining about the contract… just nervous that big body pops.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 17:49:16 GMT -5
May be minor, but why warm Kenley at this point? He labored yesterday. Just let him sit. Or… not minor?
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 17:44:57 GMT -5
May be minor, but why warm Kenley at this point? He labored yesterday. Just let him sit.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 17:40:42 GMT -5
Martin is an object lesson to pitchers. Everything he throws is good but not necessarily elite… but just goes after guys. Guys with better stuff should be taking notes.
Come to think of it: player/coach. Do it.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 17:37:56 GMT -5
Story double? Literally *everybody* hits. Give Houck an AB. I do not understand this need, even in the middle of a good performance, to mock the various hometown players. I doubt I ever will. C’mon. I’ve been Mr. Positive. But Story chafes my hide. (And is not a hometown guy.)
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 17:29:49 GMT -5
Story double? Literally *everybody* hits. Give Houck an AB.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 16:59:50 GMT -5
Bloom should be in the locker room with extensions for Casas and Bello.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 16:55:05 GMT -5
Quite a pitch by Bello!
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 16:44:59 GMT -5
Also… what does Casas do in BP? Does he hit balls 500 feet?
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 16:43:16 GMT -5
Is Casas officially the best hitter on the team?
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 16:27:02 GMT -5
Man… Civale looks almost as good as Jordan Lyles today!
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 16:25:16 GMT -5
McGuire may as well hire a sky-writer to spell out “I-C-A-N-T-H-I-T”
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