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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 21:17:59 GMT -5
For the record: Walter was drafted by DD So none of this counts until they work DD’s draft picks all the way through the system. Bridge to 2033.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 21:13:19 GMT -5
Yeah… pitching is the problem (as perhaps baseball’s worst pitcher slices and dices our lineup).
Paxton could be pitching a shutout and we *still* would not be winning.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 21:08:44 GMT -5
I know there is time left in the season to end with some dignity, but if this team collapses, I just don’t see how you don’t fire Cora and Bloom. Not saying they will, but no matter how much folks want to defend Bloom by pointing to the long term, that may mean not being good but it can’t mean being embarrassing
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 21:04:17 GMT -5
I think I’ll pencil Walter in as our #9 starter next year.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:57:58 GMT -5
Youk says the Royals are hot.
Funny how that keeps happening when teams face the Sox.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:53:54 GMT -5
This is more embarrassment than the Barraclough game.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:44:29 GMT -5
If Lyles shuts this team out, they should fire everyone down to peanut vendors.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:35:39 GMT -5
What your going to watch? Good plan - weed won't help making watching this offense any more pleasant The wife and I have been on a Master Chef and Only Murders in the Building kick, but are now caught up on both. Considering ponying up for HBO to watch the new season of Barry. Would highly recommend! Will you watch an inning and let me know if it looks any better?
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:25:51 GMT -5
I’ll say this: Wong’s arm makes him worth playing alone. Dude is quick and accurate.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:24:33 GMT -5
This is not snark: are any Sox prospects capable of being as good as Witt? If we are looking at our system, who is the guy who most likely is not just good but electric?
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:12:54 GMT -5
Sox look like they might be up 3 on the Yankees at night’s end. That might be too close for comfort.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:08:46 GMT -5
Trade Paxton? I was on the “why did we sign Paxton” train last year when we were just over the cap. And folks said “oh wait until this year”! Sure take a victory lap even though he was very good for stretch where he was expected to be. He's pretty much paid for his contract off of WAR. Which ya WAR is whatever now. So you are telling me that when they signed him they figured ~8 good starts was what they were aiming for out of his 2 years of pay? And those 8 starts were worth having worse picks for X and Eovaldi?
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 20:03:21 GMT -5
Sure take a victory lap even though he was very good for stretch where he was expected to be. He's pretty much paid for his contract off of WAR. Which ya WAR is whatever now. Also. Nobody could have predicted that our entire freaking rotation would all collapse at once. And that includes Bello. Anyone who claims to have saw that coming is full of horse manure I’m not sure that’s entirely true. I think a lot of us worried about loads for newer starters. Injuries for Sale. All of it at once? Maybe not. But this is not exactly act of God.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 19:56:08 GMT -5
I keep reminding myself that this was meant to be a bridge year from the beginning; doesn't make the current happenings any less disappointing. THIS is the bridge year? You mean because of all of the massive inherited contracts they still have ?
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 19:55:21 GMT -5
"Trade Paxton" (and sell in general) crowd, I think you're allowed to take a victory lap now. Trade Paxton? I was on the “why did we sign Paxton” train last year when we were just over the cap. And folks said “oh wait until this year”!
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 13:56:29 GMT -5
The one thing about being cautiously mediocre that might play out brilliantly is that the rest of the division will likely be worse. The Yankees are screwed. The Rays are going to lose their best players to jail or TJ. The Orioles might get cheapened to death. The Blue Jays have scads of issues. Maybe a slightly above .500 team in 2023 is a first place team in 2024?
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 10:29:35 GMT -5
Paxton seems too risky. It isn’t just the money; it is penciling him in. If he gets hurt or underperforms, here we go again.
I mean, it may be he “hit a wall.” But that wall came quickly.
First 10 starts: 2.73 ERA, .982 WHIP, .612 OPS Last 8 starts: 5.82 ERA, 1.655 WHIP, .882 OPS
If you hit a wall after 56 innings (first 10 starts), there might be deeper issues.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 8:21:20 GMT -5
Boston: 9th in the AL in Batting fWAR at 14.2 9th in the AL in Pitching fWAR at 11.0 15th in the AL in Defense at -54.5 Every team ahead of them in the AL is in the playoffs (BAL, MN, SEA, TX, HOU, TB) or still in the hunt (TOR), plus LAA in Batting and CLEV in Pitching. In all of MLB they are 18th in batting, 20th in pitching and dead last in defense. If this isn't the definition of mediocre/mid in comparison to their peers, I don't know what is. It also speaks to a significant deficit in roster construction/philosophy. Yeah,as chaimtine pointed out, let's double-count the awful defense by including it in the batting metric. And let's use an outdated piece of crap for the pitching metric.
I mean, wouldn't the team be below .500 if they were really 9th out of 15 in both batting and pitching?
By xwOBA they rank 7th in both batting and pitching, and the former is very likely 6th when adjusting for SOS.
Would you *automatically* be below .500 in that case? You might get lucky and put together a 1-0 win (bad offense) then a 7-6 win (bad pitching), then lose a bad game like 7-0 — average out to not so good in either, and be 2-1. If your losses are terrible, you could have bad numbers and an ok record. But more importantly… they are *barely* over .500. The luck factor to beat those rankings would have to be that high.
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Post by manfred on Sept 1, 2023 8:13:31 GMT -5
Either way, not the most dignified end to a HOF career.
I’m referring to Lyles, of course.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2023 23:26:53 GMT -5
Real MVP-a-thon in Dodgers-Braves game. Acuna hits a grand slam, and Mookie says “hold my beer” and homers twice. Wow.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2023 21:48:12 GMT -5
I don't know I mean generally the pre-season "optimists" predicted wins in the 84-88 range which I think is much more likely still than the pre-season "pessimistic" range of 74-78, and as of now I'll still predict the team lands in the upper range rather than the lower one. Add: More clearly, the median prediction on the board was 81 wins and I'll still take the over on that. forum.soxprospects.com/thread/6689/2023-red-sox-win-projection?page=5Add: Last couple pages of the thread I didn't get to in the above ranges had some more extreme projections, including 72 and 92, neither of which seem particularly within reason right now Yeah, was gonna say... I remember being at the pessimistic end of the spectrum in 2022 with an 82 win prediction, and then they were worse than that. And I remember the consensus being about .500 for this season and they're likely gonna be better than that. They also exceeded expectation in 2021 and fell short of them in 2020. I see... absolutely no pattern at all, except that there's more variability in real world outcomes than people usually anticipate. Marlins won. People thought it was crazy the Sox were ranked behind them. But it is a 2 game gap.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2023 19:17:27 GMT -5
I’ve been reading old threads… old off season threads, prediction threads, etc. I have to say…. pessimists get bashed and accused of being repetitive, but the “this is fine” certainly looks familiar. I don’t know whose head rolls, and I don’t know what major off-season upgrade they make, but there better be something. I just don’t think they can keep selling “we are close” or “if only…” any longer. Well, except to a section of this on-line fanbase.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2023 11:29:12 GMT -5
A manager who has a track record of winning in Boston and has a good rapport with his players and can handle the obnoxious Boston media is great and all, but an empty box could be anything. It could even be a manager who has a track record of winning in Boston and has a good rapport with his players and can handle the obnoxious Boston media! Tito!
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2023 11:28:42 GMT -5
Well… 3 left-handed OFs. Yoshida is really a DH. Duran — and I love him — could still implode. And Verdugo should be trade bait. I don’t think a full OF is a reason against it. I totally agree the risk is massive. I guess I’d just say that they should change the composition of the OF to include a regular power-hitting righty. The most obvious candidate is Duvall. I am fine with a different plan. I’m much less fine with Yoshida-Duran-Verdugo, which seems like a lot of groundouts and not many HRs… and a lot of vulnerability to lefty pitching. Right, and I think Duvall would be a great fit next season for these reasons and because he could allow Yoshida more time at DH. The point is just that they don't need him (like, say, they needed and failed to get another outfielder in 2022). 2/30 just seems like a big overpay to me for a guy who helps but doesn't fit a glaring hole. I'd almost rather go 1/30, though that'd be kind of crazy. Fair. Where we differ is our perception of the hole. I view it as glaring. I am not sure Turner will be back, and I don’t trust Story. So the team is almost pure lefty.
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Post by manfred on Aug 31, 2023 11:15:52 GMT -5
I don't see how Cora survives this. When the team should be hitting its stride and are finally pretty healthy they are shooting themselves in the foot too often. I think I'm ready to move on. There's an old anecdote that during the Civil War some Congressmen met with Abraham Lincoln to plead that General McClellan should be fired as head of the Union army. At one point there's a tussle between a Senator and Lincoln, and Lincoln asks who should be McClellan’s replacement and the Senator says, “Well, anybody.” Lincoln goes, "Anybody will do for you but I must have somebody."
I think moving on from Cora is certainly defensible given the last two years, especially if there are things behind the scenes where he's just not reaching the locker room in the way that he did before (i.e. Brad Stevens). But like... I need a name of someone available to manage next year who will be better before I jump on the Fire Cora train. I'm not sure how many managers - in the presser cooker that is Boston - manage to keep a team without a real rotation and basically without a functioning shortshop for 4 months alive until the defending champs provided the knock-out blow. Good managers - especially those who can win titles and handle Boston - are in short supply. Francona has won 3 Manager of the Year Awards in Cleveland since the team let him go due to him having supposedly " completely lost his ability to motivate his increasingly lackluster team." If someone has ideas for who is Bloom's General Grant is in this scenario, I'm all ears. Of course, Grant was a washout drunk when that conversation happened. I’m not necessarily advocating firing Cora, but the lesson of Grant, I think, is greatness is often found in unexpected places and often just needs the moment to reveal itself.
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