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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 26, 2023 10:07:36 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 26, 2023 10:19:45 GMT -5
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Post by soxfaninnj on Feb 26, 2023 10:25:43 GMT -5
So Machado pretty much got a 15/470 million dollar deal. Wow
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 26, 2023 10:27:14 GMT -5
Next year's free agent class for hitters is looking dire with Devers and Machado off the board. The Korean CF is gonna get the biggest deal other than Ohtani I bet
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,977 
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Post by jimoh on Feb 26, 2023 11:05:15 GMT -5
So Xander and Machado will get big bucks when they are 41, and Dustin Pedroia is 39.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 26, 2023 11:12:55 GMT -5
So Xander and Machado will get big bucks when they are 41, and Dustin Pedroia is 39. That's why the Padres are signing these guys long-term, Machado can't take out his own teammates |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 26, 2023 11:21:04 GMT -5
So Xander and Machado will get big bucks when they are 41, and Dustin Pedroia is 39. The absolute certainty that the Padres will be screwed for a solid half decade at least, starting ca. 2028 - and possibly a lot sooner than that - would drive me nuts as a fan.
Meanwhile, a 31-year-old Matt Chapman is gonna get a stupid amount of money from somebody.
ADD: ZiPS projects Machado to put up 1.7 WAR during the five years covered by the extension - a nice round $100 million/WAR. For the entire contract starting in 2024 it projects 17.3 WAR - about $18.5 million/WAR. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 26, 2023 11:43:01 GMT -5
So will the Padres put up 500 million plus for Soto? Or are they finally going to hit their limit?
Normally you hope to lock up your core in their 20s and early 30s, but the Padres are locking up their core in their 30s into their early 40s.
I guess this means that Bogaerts will wind up transitioning to 2b when his SS days are done now that the Padres are locked into Machado at 3b?
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 26, 2023 12:06:17 GMT -5
Unless the owner intends to go full Cohen long term, the Padres appear to be self destructing. If they don't win the WS in the next couple years - and I don't think they'll be good enough to be favorites - they are going to be an expensive disaster with nothing to show for it. It's been contract after contract this offseason that have come off as outrageous overpays.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 26, 2023 12:31:21 GMT -5
Unless the owner intends to go full Cohen long term, the Padres appear to be self destructing. If they don't win the WS in the next couple years - and I don't think they'll be good enough to be favorites - they are going to be an expensive disaster with nothing to show for it. It's been contract after contract this offseason that have come off as outrageous overpays. Yep. By signing/extending these 30-year-olds (and trading their farm away) they're really narrowing their window down to about 3 years. But with the expanded playoffs any team faces really long odds in any one season. Fangraphs gives them a 12% chance to win the WS this year. The odds of them winning it even once in the next 3 years are probably about 1-in-3. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 26, 2023 14:21:39 GMT -5
So Xander and Machado will get big bucks when they are 41, and Dustin Pedroia is 39. That's why the Padres are signing these guys long-term, Machado can't take out his own teammates It wouldn't shock me in the slightest... |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 26, 2023 14:25:36 GMT -5
So Machado pretty much got a 15/470 million dollar deal. Wow Player options are a powerful tool. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 27, 2023 12:43:40 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2023 13:12:33 GMT -5
Conversely, I’d like to see projections that are not wins based but total recoup based. That is, what is the total financial benefit to a team of signing a star? Take Ohtani… if a team pays him $50 million a year next year, it is almost impossible to imagine getting it back on the field. But does he add more than that in tickets, tv, tshirts, etc? I feel like in many cases these contracts are bigger wins for owners than it might seem in the standings. |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 27, 2023 13:27:21 GMT -5
Conversely, I’d like to see projections that are not wins based but total recoup based. That is, what is the total financial benefit to a team of signing a star? Take Ohtani… if a team pays him $50 million a year next year, it is almost impossible to imagine getting it back on the field. But does he add more than that in tickets, tv, tshirts, etc? I feel like in many cases these contracts are bigger wins for owners than it might seem in the standings. My two thoughts on this are: a) "did the billionaire owner come out ahead on net?" is a very bleak topic I have absolutely no interest in; and b) whatever effect such "star power" might have on revenue streams are probably dwarfed by the effect of the team's quality on all those revenue streams. Like did the Angels come out ahead on Pujols' contract because he juiced fan interest, or would they have been better off spending more efficiently and winning 4-5 more games per year and maybe making the playoffs an additional time or two? I strongly suspect it's the latter. |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 27, 2023 13:42:02 GMT -5
Yeah, I don't understand this perspective at all:
If I were a fan of the Padres, I'd find it very easy to dislike this contract. With Kim and Cronenworth they have a couple of affordable middle infielders, and Bogaerts could have slid over to 3B after this season while freeing up the Padres to keep Soto if they really wanted to. (Of course I would have already torn my hair out about giving Bogaerts that contract, but here we are.) Instead they're just grabbing at whatever they can to go all in for the next 2-3 years without a long-term plan at all. I don't understand what's supposed to be "refreshing" about that, nor what is supposed to be "cynical" about long-term planning. Like, selling the farm and spending willy-nilly on guys into their 40s is not how the "elite franchise" Dodgers have done it, for one.
ADD: Szymborski sells ZIPS data to teams, right? So he actually has a financial incentive to go easy on them...
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Post by manfred on Feb 27, 2023 14:24:21 GMT -5
Conversely, I’d like to see projections that are not wins based but total recoup based. That is, what is the total financial benefit to a team of signing a star? Take Ohtani… if a team pays him $50 million a year next year, it is almost impossible to imagine getting it back on the field. But does he add more than that in tickets, tv, tshirts, etc? I feel like in many cases these contracts are bigger wins for owners than it might seem in the standings. My two thoughts on this are: a) "did the billionaire owner come out ahead on net?" is a very bleak topic I have absolutely no interest in; and b) whatever effect such "star power" might have on revenue streams are probably dwarfed by the effect of the team's quality on all those revenue streams. Like did the Angels come out ahead on Pujols' contract because he juiced fan interest, or would they have been better off spending more efficiently and winning 4-5 more games per year and maybe making the playoffs an additional time or two? I strongly suspect it's the latter. I’m not saying it is a thrill, but truthfully I find it as interesting as WAR projections. Either way, as a fan I don’t value players that way. Maybe there needs to be a bigger picture yet: the Pujols signing was bad AND a sign of a badly run team. Some over pays are hardly franchise-back-breakers, though. Indeed, I suspect that few contracts have been solely responsible for a team going from winner to loser. But a few, maybe. |
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 27, 2023 16:59:39 GMT -5
Gavin Lux has been carted off the field after sustaining an injury running into third base.
I not posting the replay because I only could take seeing it once...
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 28, 2023 2:56:52 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,977
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Post by jimoh on Feb 28, 2023 6:45:34 GMT -5
If I were a fan of the Padres, I'd find it very easy to dislike this contract. With Kim and Cronenworth they have a couple of affordable middle infielders, and Bogaerts could have slid over to 3B after this season while freeing up the Padres to keep Soto if they really wanted to. (Of course I would have already torn my hair out about giving Bogaerts that contract, but here we are.) Instead they're just grabbing at whatever they can to go all in for the next 2-3 years without a long-term plan at all. I don't understand what's supposed to be "refreshing" about that, nor what is supposed to be "cynical" about long-term planning. Like, selling the farm and spending willy-nilly on guys into their 40s is not how the "elite franchise" Dodgers have done it, for one.
ADD: Szymborski sells ZIPS data to teams, right? So he actually has a financial incentive to go easy on them...
I think the bolded part is true, but not necessarily a bad thing to a certain type of fan. The key is that the Padres have zero championships. They are going all in for the next several years (probably more than 2-3), in the hopes of winning one or two. With the long term deals, it is as though they are spending more than the Mets, but with some of the money deferred to the 2030s. I wouldn't want my team to do that, but we are all rabid Red Sox fans. |
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nomar
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Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on Feb 28, 2023 8:43:12 GMT -5
When is he going to add that second s to his name |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 28, 2023 10:05:51 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 28, 2023 10:17:14 GMT -5
Gavin Lux has been carted off the field after sustaining an injury running into third base. I not posting the replay because I only could take seeing it once... |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 28, 2023 12:20:32 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 28, 2023 12:47:58 GMT -5
Gavin Lux has been carted off the field after sustaining an injury running into third base. I not posting the replay because I only could take seeing it once... Torn ACL,LCL. Out for the season. hate to see stuff like this. www.mlb.com/news/gavin-lux-carted-off-with-injury |
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