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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 14, 2024 11:26:59 GMT -5
The story of the 2024 Red Sox: Triston Casas was off to a good start, with a 133 wRC+, improved defense, and 0.5 WAR in 22 games, on pace for almost 4 WAR.
Then he got hurt. And in 9 games as a LHH 1B replacement, Dom Smith has -0.5 WAR, entirely cancelling out Casas' contribution.
Yes, but he had a .441 wOBA with the bases empty and .094 with RISP. Hence, a -.15 Win Probability Added.
However, Dalbec is -.89, and Smith and Cooper are already -.65 and -.37.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 14, 2024 11:16:33 GMT -5
The Red Sox had 7 hard-hit balls that were likely hits, and the Rays had 1.
And the expected total hits for the Sox was 5.1, and they got 6.
Of course, all but two of those came with the bases empty, and the sole out (Duran's liner to 1B) came with 2 outs and RISP.
How did the Rays score 5 times with just one impressive hit? The three hits in the first that produced the key runs had EV's of 93.1, 93.1, and 89.3, launch angle of 10, 13, and 15, and hit expectations of 64%, 95%, and 99%. And I know that hits of this sort, not hard but perfectly placed, look like acts of skill -- Xander
seemed to be good at it, for instance. Luis Arraez certainly seems to have this skill, but I have never been able to find any evidence that anyone else does. It seems as if you give it a shot and hope for luck. We don't notice failed attempts.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2024 18:32:08 GMT -5
pitches are flat. looks they are floating up there. And yet the only hard-hit ball was Lowe's liner, and that had a below 50% hit probability.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2024 18:23:11 GMT -5
b-Ref's ranking has the Sox in a 3-way tie for 4th, after the Dodgers, O's, and Braves, alongside the Yankees and Royals.
The Rays are fourth worst. Hoping for a sweep is reasonable.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 13, 2024 18:00:05 GMT -5
Using wOBA, Sox have had the 4th best offense in MLB ... with the bases empty. They're 11th with just a runner on first.
They're 23rd with RISP, down three slots from a week ago. They're 28th in RISP vs. empty, ahead of only the Cardinals and the Blue Jays.
Devers, Abeu Refsynder and (just a bit) Hamilton have been better than average in both, while Duran, McGuire and Yoshida have been below average with empty and above with RISP. But no one has been better than MLB average with empty and even better with RISP. Devers comes the closest-- he's .364 empty, .011 better with RISP when average MLB is .021 better.
The problem really boils down to three guys with huge splits. I'll subtract the .021 that is built in when there's RISP.
Casas .441 / .073 O'Neil .540 / .212 Wong .451 / .260
Compare Duran:
.294 / .395
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2024 17:29:04 GMT -5
Pivetta not yet confirmed (to my knowledge) but seems like a strong bet for Wed so I have him penciled in there currently. When Houck came off the IL last year, he had one start on 6 days rest. Ignore that for a moment, and his first four outings were all worse than his last three -- overall, first .340 / .390 (xwOBA / wOBA), and then .277 / .246. Those three starts were of course more clues that he would be great this year.
His game with 6 days rest, in his season's next-to-last start? .481 / .570. Worst start of all eight by a mile.
Now, his first four starts this year have the exact same structure as the last 4 of last year. Starts 1, 2 and 4 were .174 / .160. Star 3 was .504 / .435.
The catch? That bad outing was on 4 days rest and was followed, on four days rest, by the best outing of his life.
Furthermore, in his great run of 3-inning dominance at the start of last year, he had a great outing on on 6 days. It was his sole outing on 7 days that was the worst of the batch.
There are several question here. Do they know what happened to ruin those two starts? Is the extra day of rest last year part of that? If they do have a handle on the two bad outings, are they confident that won't won't reoccur if he gets six days now?
Assuming that the 6 days of rest is not in itself a problem, the choice comes back to the importance of this game -- where Houck projects to be better than Pivetta--versus the need to get Pivetta going rather than having him wait. I think they may be thinking of starting Houck in this series but using Pivetta in relief. I'd love to see that. (For one thing, if you have a plan to piggyback Pivetta on Houck, there's no worrying that Cora leaves Houck in too long, as he seems to have been doinh since the Maddux.)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 6, 2024 0:11:12 GMT -5
I’ll be happy with 2-3 against MIN and ATL on the road Cool, let’s go split in Atlanta I had the same idea for this series; given the pitching matchups and the Twins' streak, I'd be fine with one win. Unexpected bonus: we outscored them them 12 to 10, and that's what better teams do.
As of 1 AM today, the second starter in the Braves series remains TBD. Hopefully that means they're considering Houck on regular rest. They could activate Pivetta and hope to use him in relief in this series.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2024 23:58:00 GMT -5
Highlights from today's game include Grissom's first hit for the Sox, another fine outing from The Great Criswell (sounds like someone who appeared on the Ed Sullivan Show back in the day), Raffaela vaulting over the Mendoza Line, and Reese "Golden Wheels" McGuire stealing another base. Good day all around. Not on the Ed Sullivan Show, but The Jack Paar Program and others, and his own syndicated Criswell Predicts show. He may be best known now for appearing in Plan Nine For Outer Space. I actually own his book of predictions, none of which came true.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2024 16:34:22 GMT -5
Pivetta had a very rough rehab start, but if he has another, that's actually better regardless of how well he just pitched.
All the talk about his being ready for the Braves series turns out to make no sense. Right now we're set to have Crawford on 5 days rest and Houck on 4 -- if we insert Pivetta in there, Houck ends up pitching on six days rest, at home against the Nats rather than on the road against the Braves.
Give Pivetta another rehab start, on Tuesday, and he returns to MLB on the 12th. Bello has been reported to be having a rehab start on Tuesday and that seems to be a "why not?" decision given the two off-days in 4 days coming up; there's just no room for five pitchers.
If Bello starts on Monday, that would fit perfectly:
Houck opener TBD and Anderson Criswell --off--- Crawford (5) Houck --off --- Criswell Bello Pivetta (Nats)
Crawford (5) Houck (5) Criswell (Rays at hone)
... continuing on 4 days rest. Sox have 13 games without a break here, all against teams that are at present below average.
If Bello starts on Tuesday, Winck gets one more start and Crawford and Houck get 6 days rest, which is questionable.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 3, 2024 12:53:22 GMT -5
If traveled back in time and said to you 5 months ago that a month into the season the mostly home grown Boston Red Sox starting rotation was arguably the best in baseball you'd laugh.....really really hard, and then maybe cry that we still hadn't signed Monty/Snell, who no one is talking about anymore. Not everyone would laugh! Me on October 4: "The projected 2024 roster here has [Tanner Houck] in the bullpen. I'll assert right now that he has a better chance of getting a CY vote than he does of pitching mostly in relief."
Later that day, julyanmorley: "Pivetta added a sweeper midway through the season and it was his best pitch. 116 strikeouts and 22 walks in 82 innings from July through the end of the season." I replied "Yes yes yes" and ran his wOBA and xwOBA numbers, which were elite.
It went on from there. By the 26th I was also high on Crawfors and finished "You know things are looking up when the pitcher who least excites "you" (in this case, me) in terms of taking a major step forward from 2023 value is Bryan Bello."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2024 14:38:18 GMT -5
It seems that Refsnyder will be the guy in the lineup to replace him. And they'll keep Hamilton of the roster for the time being. He can pinch-run, and if they need to replace an OF mid-game they just move Rafaela to the OF and put Short or Hamilton at short.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2024 14:23:37 GMT -5
It seems to me that they believe that Smith will be more valuable on the roster, down the road, than Dalbec (who also gets to play every day and locale his talent) and ditto for Short and Hamilton. Not much of a downside if they prove to be wrong, except for the need to open up a 40-man slot. The latter makes the idea that they are just covering for Yoshida's IL stint less credible.
One possibility for the latter is to trade Mata to a team with thin pitching where he projects to be valuable enough to keep on the MLB roster down the road ... which does not seem to be the case with us.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 1, 2024 13:42:22 GMT -5
xwOBA and / wOBA of all the stating or bulk pitchers. Note the pattern.
For amusement I've added the depth chart position at the start of the spring.
.271 / .245 Crawford [4]
.281 / .236 Houck [5]
.289 / .251 Criswell [8]
.298 / .231 Pivettta [3
.304 / .287 Bello [2]
.327 / .283 Whitlock [6]
.359 / .275 Winckoswki (2 G) [7]
.350 / .314 Anderson (all ) .541 / .660 start (1) [9]
Huge apparent contribution from defensive positioning.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2024 17:33:07 GMT -5
BTW, going into today's games the Sox were in sole position of second place in b-Ref's SAS metric, 0.1 runs per game ahead of O's and 0.2 ahead of the Braves. A more normal performance by the Cubs' position player pitchers would have them behind the O's and tied with or 0.1 back of the Braves. There's a big gap pf 0.4 down to the Yankees and Dodgers.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 30, 2024 12:05:22 GMT -5
Mishmash of thoughts... Uwasawa is addition by subtraction. He's not Joely taking away lefty time from Bernardino and Booser. It wouldn't take a lot. On the other hand, Joely will likely return a prospect or at minimum, cash, more than offsetting Cooper cash. Beleive it or not there are teams with worse (or no) lefties than him, Seattle for example (I haven't looked at Seattle since we played them). Lefties have more lives than Dalbec. I doubt if we will get anything for Reyes but I think he's likely to get claimed. Cash if we're lucky. As far as who goes for Grissom, I think it will be Valdez although Dalbec or Hamilton both also make sense. Whoever stays is likely to see a lot of bench time. If Masa will be out for a week or so, Valdez will likely stay. I was hoping for Votto but also very happy with Cooper. The only move that makes sense now is the obvious one, sending Valdez back down. He's made himself a solid or good 2B in terms of range, but isn't adept at any other infield position, so he's not a viable bench component. Hamilton is now the backup 2B and SS and Dalbec the backup 1B and 3B. If they need to go 3 deep or juggle guys around, Dalbec has played RF and SS, Grissom SS, 3B, and LF, and Hamiltion CF, all within the last 2 years. The only thin position is 1B, where Refsnyder is the third option.
If Masa is out a few games, you still have four outfielders, and we can continue the Ref plays against RF thing.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2024 11:51:27 GMT -5
This is awesome. I hear he bats over .200, could hit cleanup for us! I jest, but still, he's a big upgrade offensively. Bobby's D has been refreshing, so I hope Cooper can carry that water on some level as well. I expect they'll DFA Dalbec, but I could see a Hamilton or Dalbec option with a 60-day DL for Mata or Walter instead. Advantage would be keeping depth?? I still can't get over that Bobby can be patient on pitches outside the zone AND hit in AAA, but can't even make solid contact in the show. There's a legit hitter in there somewhere (not great, but capable of hitting .220 or so at least). Dalbec hit 33 HRs - .269 BA - .938 OPS last year in Worcester. He is a legitimate All-star in AAA, maybe even a AAA MVP, but it has not translated into the MLB. It is both interest and strange that the contrast is so huge. I want to point out again that when he was recalled last September he was the best hitter on the team for a week. His problem is not that he can't hit MLB pitching. It's that he's a JBJ type, and the puzzle is why he has a very good hot to cold ratio in AAA and a very bad one in MLB. There's probably a psychological component, at this point.
And I don't think he's going anywhere. Since Valdez can only play 2B, he's obviously going down to make room for Grissom. That leaves Dalbec and Hamilton as the possibilities to make room for Cooperr, and Hamilton has never played an inning at 3B or 1B. The last time they found themselves with no backup 1B, they had Refsnyder work out there, and he hadn't played there is years ... because he'd been lousy at it. He was and remains the emergency back-up.
Viewed another way, if you keep Hamilton, what is his role? Pinch-runner, but for who? Cooper, but who then plays first? Reyes, but he's also your backup at SS, 2B, and 3B. Hamilton is behind Reyes as backup SS, so he's also the guy who plays SS when Reyes is at one of the other three positions he's the primary backup for.
Dalbec has played great defense at 1B, and he has a chance doing something good with the bat. That's kind of the definition of a backup, no?. And you just can't have Reyes backing up all four infield positions.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 29, 2024 0:34:59 GMT -5
The updated SRS rankings:
2.1 Guardians 1.6 Braves 1.6 Red Sox 1.5 Orioles 1.2 Royals 1.1 Yankees 1.0 Dodgers
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2024 13:50:21 GMT -5
B-ref has the Sox as tied for the 4th best team in MLB, while the Cubs are in a 4-way tie for 9th.
How can that be?
The Sox have played 10 games against the 3 best teams in baseball, while the Cubs have played none against the top 5.
The Cubs have played 10 games against the 5 worst teams in baseball while the Sox have yet to play 1.
Excluding these extremes the Sox are 12-4 and the Cubs are 8 -7.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2024 4:34:11 GMT -5
By the end of the year, Rafaela, not Story or Mayer will be thought of as the shortstop of the future. I very much doubt that ... for one thing, his ability to plat multiple positions could be of real value. I'm thinking Tony Phillips here.
Meanwhile ...
2.0 Brewers 1.8 Guardians 1.8 Orioles 1.5 Red Sox 1.3 Braves
That of course is bRef's SRS, run differential adjusted for schedule strength.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 22:02:32 GMT -5
Is that supposed to be 2023 & 2024? LOL! Or course. You might guess that I never got the nap I needed -- a baseball game started and was unexpectedly interesting.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 21:16:46 GMT -5
Is there any chance the plan to throw off their breaking pitches rather than their fastballs is part of the reason for this? I need a nap badly, but the first thing I'm doing when I awake is to look at the degree of fastball reduction for each pitcher. If Crawford and Houck have the least change, that would be telling. Well, this is not reassuring. The number is the % of pitches other than fastballs (4-seamers and sinkers)
Name 2023 2024 Added Whitlock 47.1 77.3 30.2 Pivetta 49.4 67.2 17.8 Bello 43.0 60.3 17.3 Houck 60.5 71.0 10.5 Winckowski 57.6 67.5 9.9 Crawford 60.8 70.6 9.8
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 16:34:18 GMT -5
...not really ever a witch hunt guy but do we have a training staff/conditioning issue or something Is there any chance the plan to throw off their breaking pitches rather than their fastballs is part of the reason for this? I need a nap badly, but the first thing I'm doing when I awake is to look at the degree of fastball reduction for each pitcher. If Crawford and Houck have the least change, that would be telling.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 15:58:21 GMT -5
Crawford could (in theory) go tomorrow on 4 days rest rather than the 5 he's been planning on.
Winck would then have game 1 of the Cubs series and Houck game 3, but they'd have no one for game 2. Having Pivetta skip a rehab start would ordinarily be a bad idea, but ... it may still be a bad idea. The Cubs' 64 wRC+ is minor-league quality, but if it turns out that he needs 2 or more rehab starts, you're hosed. The Giants, up next, have a 100 and his third start would be against the Braves. Right now, I' might take the gamble. Maybe.
OR (if it's too late to change Crawford's date) ...
Crawford on his existing schedule and a bullpen game tomorrow ... Criswell would have to go somewhat deep tonight to male that work. That would solve the Cubs problem.
They have an off day between the Cubs and Giants and another a week later, so that will help.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 14:57:49 GMT -5
All 5 of the Red Sox starters have plus "karma", i.e., their wOBA is less than their xwOBA. The odds of that being random are 2^5, or 1 in 32.
I got curious. The Sox have the second best starting pitcher karma in MLB. Do the champs, the Rangers, have all of their regular starters with good karama?
Yes they do! As do #3 Mets and #4 Padres. Now the odds are 1 in 1,048,576.
I think that "karma" here is defensive positioning.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 24, 2024 14:40:38 GMT -5
Justin Slaten has (so far) 3 plus pitches, which is to say, he has starter's stuff, and quite possibly good starter's stuff. He's thrown 34 pitches twice. Stretching him out is a no-brainer.
Meanwhile, Fitts had a great outing a week ago and just had his worst one pitching at 11 AM on six days rest. I'd throw our that outing while projecting him. He'll be here sooner than later.
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