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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 25, 2019 8:30:14 GMT -5
I've said this a million times: Vazquez has better offensive projections than Swihart. How can a projection system ever do any justice to Swihart? He's completely unknown. He has a ten year professional track record, and a .256/.314/.364 line in just under 600 MLB plate appearances. The system is fair to him by looking at every single plate appearance he's ever had. And if the track record is thin... I mean, yeah, exactly. That's what they're looking at. You have two catchers, one of them has a statistical track record that suggests they're an above-replacement MLB player, the other one doesn't. It's not complicated.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 25, 2019 8:14:03 GMT -5
I like Swihart, but I also wonder if we overblow his offense. He may have the highest ceiling, but has he clearly demonstrated that given a full year behind the plate there would be as much separation as we assume? Obviously Leon was brutal last year, but it seems unfair to credit Swihart with his full potential but not imagine CVaz and Leon can bounce back even slightly. I've said this a million times: Vazquez has better offensive projections than Swihart.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2019 23:28:55 GMT -5
1. Because he maybe isn’t a terrible catcher. 2. It’s a great thing to do to help a young player on your team.
3. Offensive production from the catching position would likely improve. 4. You make your managers job easier because he doesn’t have to “force” a star player to do something. If Chris Sale and friends have are interested in doing any favors for a young catcher on the roster, Swihart probably isn't the guy they have in mind.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2019 21:04:44 GMT -5
Here’s what I don’t really understand and never have. Maybe my lack of understanding is because I never played professional baseball and even as a kid, was not really even a decent pitcher. Why can’t Price, Porcello or Sale come forward to Alex Cora and volunteer to “take the bullet” of regularly throwing to Swihart this season? Why would they do that?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2019 14:48:14 GMT -5
Probably still Bogaerts, but it does kind of show it's hard to get completely worked when you buy cost controlled players in bulk.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2019 14:35:07 GMT -5
Love seeing Chavis hit a HR to the opposite field. Does anyone know if he normally hits to all fields? SP profile lists his power as "especially to pull side" so I'd assume not. Fangraphs does have batted ball numbers for the minor leagues: www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B#battedball(Probably not the most reliable data in the world, but he does appear to have been an extreme pull hitter last year)
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 24, 2019 14:31:36 GMT -5
Holt hasn't made it to free agency yet. The market has completely gone to crap. It's just funny that the same people arguing that WAR is worth 7 million and defend it, yet a 3 WAR player on average (whose math adds up to around 21 million for one year according to this logic), is now worth 21 million for 2 years. Don't get it. Add- Heck I'd rather would have rather not wanted Pearce or Holt this off-season, I would have signed Gonzalez if he was going this cheap. Gonzalez is better than both of these players and is making 1 million more this year than Holt and Pearce this year. Or traded Moreland and Holt, then resigned Pearce. Pedro you are getting all hung up on what looks like one outlier career season. He hasn't been a 3 bwar type player for his career and I don't expect him to be one going forward. He got a very good deal in my opinion and I'm just not sure why you think this is an example of the market going to crap. There are a lot better cases. Our former SS having to take a minor league after a 2.2 bwar season is a perfect example of how the market sucks. A solid bullpen arm like Alex Wilson having to take a minor league deal is another one. So much focus is on the top guys, when it's really the lower level guys that are getting screwed. If we're going with seven million per WAR, Gonzalez's Steamer projection is for 1.5 WAR next year, and at his age you'd expect about the same in the second year of the deal as well. So, three WAR total, seven per WAR, $21m contract. He's getting paid fair value for his projections. If you want to complain about this deal, you have to present a compelling case that he's better than those projections, and I don't really see one.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 23, 2019 19:05:41 GMT -5
This... in what world would Marwin Gonzalez making 15m+ per year end up good for the team? The AAV was fine. 21 million dollars 2 years? That's the hang up here. Fine Zobrist was better 3 years ago. Salaries should be going up, not down with the increase in revenues through the years. That’s a big salary comient on a per year basis though. He’s a fine player, with one very good year. Besides 2017, his career is very similar to Brock Holt. Is Brock Holt going to get a contract paying him over 10 million a year? Gonzalez has averaged 1.5 bWAR since 2014. Brock Holt has yet to reach 1 bWAR ever. Gonzalez has had at least 2.5 bWAR the past two seasons, including a 4.1 bWAR in 2017. Gonzalez is a MUCH better player.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 23, 2019 15:45:47 GMT -5
Jose Iglesias signed a minor league contract. Considering his defense and position, that seems a bigger injustice than the fact that Bryce Harper is still a free agent or that Marwin Gonzalez ONLY got 21 million. Dude is 29 and coming off a 2-win season. Couldn't get a major league deal. This system is dumb. Dude was roughly as good as Marwin Gonzalez, actually...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 23, 2019 11:21:28 GMT -5
As much as I agree that baseball's player compensation model is broken, I think people are getting out over their skis on some of the outrage here. Marwin Gonzalez is a versatile player who spiked a four WAR season once (on the strength of a career-high BABIP no less). At the time Zobrist signed with the Cubs, he had exceeded four WAR in five of his previous seven seasons. Zobrist got paid more because he was obviously a much better player. He was like twice as good as Gonzalez in 2018! What are we even talking about here?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 22, 2019 13:01:04 GMT -5
I've gotta ask. Why does anybody really care what PECOTA projects? What difference does it make? There are way too many variables in baseball that can't be predicted for it too be taken too seriously. I mean should a Cubs fan's season be ruined because PECOTA doesn't come up with huge projections for them? Just because PECOTA is spitting out 79 wins doesn't mean that the Cubs are destined for 79 wins. It's just a projection system. We all have our own internal projection systems and who knows if they're more accurate or less accurate than the automated projecting systems? Everyone who’s evaluated them retrospectively.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 22, 2019 12:53:12 GMT -5
Jeff Sullivan leaving Fangraphs, going to work for the Rays. Here's his goodbye. Eno Sarris, Dave Cameron, Carson Cistuli, and now Sullivan. End of an era.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 22, 2019 7:13:50 GMT -5
I know this is nitpicking, but I could not get past this: No it isn't a computer either. It's an application programmed on a computer. If Zips was also programmed onto the machine that would not make that machine Zips. Small stuff but I'm sorry, it stops me in my tracks. Why should I read the rest of it? If the writer can't get that straight, what else fell through the cracks? PECOTA is a land of contrasts.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 21, 2019 17:35:05 GMT -5
So much of Lester's usefulness is tied to his durability, though. I'm not sure there are lessons there that apply to Sale. He's closer compared to Price. Lester really has fallen off a cliff in the last two years. Imagine how much worse it would have been in the AL East. Things worked out perfectly for both Lester and the Red Sox to be honest. I just read that PECOTA predicts the Cubs to win 79 games this year. Ouch. Really? Fangraphs has them at 87. Does PECOTA just hate their pitching or what?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 19, 2019 18:35:12 GMT -5
Machado not going to MFY! I am tempted to say Padres are stupid on incurring a 10-year contract, at least the Yanks can afford it with their revenue stream.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 19, 2019 14:41:28 GMT -5
Obviously winning is far from the most important thing for him. Half the teams in baseball are actively trying to lose. I'm sure that if he'd signed with the Yankees or Dodgers everyone would be congratulating him on his competitive spirit.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 17, 2019 12:52:15 GMT -5
For all the reasons stated above, right now I would seriously prioritize resigning JD above Xander, and maybe even Sale. IMO JD’s bat will age well enough. More importantly, his knowledge and preparation have a ripple effect on the rest of the lineup. I don’t think it’s entirely a coincidence that Mookie had his two best years with a veteran mentor behind him in the lineup (and that, in the absence of a mentor-type, he was less consistent and confident about sticking with his approach).That sounds like the definition of a coincidence.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 17, 2019 10:07:04 GMT -5
I don't view that as a problem at all. That's top 10 for all MLB outfielders last season. Hell, that's almost like Bryce Harper. The problem wouldn’t be the production. The problem would be if he is being paid as a shortstop, but is a left fielder. A shortstop with that bat will make more than a left fielder with that bat. So if you pay him like a shortstop, but he moves to left field, you’ve got a bad contract. Joe Mauer at catcher in 2017 with a 116 wRC+ in 140 games would be an incredibly valuable player. Mauer in 2017 at first with that wRC+ was still a 2 WAR player, so that was fine. The problem was that he was paid 23 million dollars for that production. That was a problem. This is more of a nitpick but in 2017 Mauer's salary was basically fine, probably a slight overpay but nothing disastrous even for the Twins. The real problem was that 2017 was the best year of the last five years of his career.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 15, 2019 15:41:02 GMT -5
33.28, plus the 30 million he likely gets next year. Then his future contract of 200 plus million. The guy is going to make a crap load of money in his career. But yea let's worry about what he made in his 2nd full season. He's also likely going to be overpaid by the end of that next deal. It's the way it works in all sports. You get underpaid, then overpaid. Establishing that the status quo exists is not the same thing as establishing that it should remain unchanged.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 15, 2019 12:37:22 GMT -5
Guess this is just yet another thread where we either argue forever or just let umass think he's right. Nothing wrong with 10 WAR players in baseball making $550K idiots. What if they made $200k? $100k? Minumum wage? Less than minimum age? How little would a 10 WAR player need to make before you consider it a problem? This is not a rhetorical question. I want your real answer.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 15, 2019 12:22:18 GMT -5
The guy posted a OPS over .800 once, in AA, in 2014. Anyway, we don't know what kind of hitter he is. How would we? There's no way to tell. An .800 OPS is insanely good for a catcher. Four catchers in MLB did that last season. The way to tell if he's a good hitter is to let him hit. He lost a lot of time with injuries and a lot of his struggles were likely affected by those. I'm not arguing that the Red Sox have to be the team that sinks or swims with him, but I think you're selling him short. Not when it's his high water mark, and it came half a decade ago two levels removed from the majors.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 15, 2019 11:56:41 GMT -5
That's all we know from a pro career that started in 2011? A lifetime .256/.314/.364 line in almost 600 MLB PAs, and an organization that has repeatedly shown it doesn't like his defense aren't "objective evidence" of anything? He has a track record, and it's bad. I still don't understand why this player is regarded as some kind of unknown quantity. That's a little unfair. He has rarely gotten regular at bats in the majors. The one time he did in 2015, he had a 1.5 fWAR season in 84 games. No one has any idea what Swihart would become if he did get regular plate appearances in the majors. It will likely be with another team that can afford to be patient, but he does look like a good hitter at times, especially for a catcher. The guy posted a OPS over .800 once, in AA, in 2014. Anyway, we don't know what kind of hitter he is. How would we? There's no way to tell.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 15, 2019 11:44:44 GMT -5
I guess I will have to agree to disagree with the people who claim "all objective evidence" indicates that Swihart is a bad catcher (or not "good" one). From where I sit all objective evidence indicates he has not been given a legitimate chance to prove that one way or another... That's all we know from a pro career that started in 2011? A lifetime .256/.314/.364 line in almost 600 MLB PAs, and an organization that has repeatedly shown it doesn't like his defense aren't "objective evidence" of anything? He has a track record, and it's bad. I still don't understand why this player is regarded as some kind of unknown quantity. Varitek did break out at 27. However , he and Swihart had a similar number of plate appearances at 26, and did not have similar results. Also, and I can't stress this enough - absolutely nobody was questioning in 1997 whether Varitek was a catcher and talking nonsense like "maybe he could play second base or the outfield or wherever else!" Pitchers loved throwing to him. The **negative** view on him at that point would've been something like "at worst, a platoon starter; the arm's not outstanding, and maybe he won't hit enough to be a first-division borderline All-Star that people thought he was when he was drafted and ends up stuck a part-timer." However, nothing. Not that what you said past that point was wrong, but it's argument that shouldn't even need to be made. It's a data set of one.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 15, 2019 10:05:04 GMT -5
Yeah, I think it all comes down to whether one believes in Swihart or not. Varitek went to the superbowl with Swihart and they seem to be close. He's one guy who believes in him. If the Sox keep Swihart around and play him, he would have been at the same age Varitek took off in his career in Boston. Pros: His buddy says he's good Cons: All the objective evidence
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Feb 14, 2019 14:12:43 GMT -5
Here’s an update to prospect valuation: blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/If a team *likes* him, thinking he’s probably a 1-2 WAR player, with additional framing value, he offers $12-36M in excess value over three years. That’s a 45+ and 40 at the low end or a 50 and a 45+ at the high end. I think the latter is unlikely, but if they managed a 1-for-1 for an upper-level 50 FV SP, it would be a great move, especially if they could get a second ancillary player with a big arm. It would address the SP depth issue and provide some future cost certainty, and probably provide a mid-season callup SP option. Yeah, but you're opening a hole at catcher to close a (future) hole at SP. That puts you in a position to lose the trade even if you get a decent return. I'll stop here because I'm just going to end up repeating myself, but I don't understand why the Red Sox think they have three catchers. They have one.
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