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Post by mattpicard on Nov 3, 2014 12:04:13 GMT -5
Sure, he hasn't been good, but he hasn't been awful, either. He's at 5.0 fWAR in his three full(ish) seasons, meaning he's been OK, but nothing special. His BABIP's have always run on the low side, though, and hit rock bottom, literally, in 2014, which was the only season I was really applying the "unlucky" label to. But he has a career 89 wRC+ and .152 ISO against RHP's, with plus defense and a BABIP that will regress positively. That's a guy I have some real confidence in to have some "good" seasons in the years ahead. If you're interested, Cameron is about as sanguine as I ( and directly addresses his BABIP) OK, but that was written in May when he had a .152/.223/.320 line in 139 plate appearances. He hit .235/.289/.377 afterwards, which isn't good, but it was an improvement (and the BABIP rose from .155 to .244). His Z-Contact was 81% on the date of that publication. I can't tell what it's been since that day, but it ended up at 87.5%, putting him 114th of 171 players with at least 450 PA's. Cameron notes that over the season's first 6 weeks, Moustakes was lost, and points out that the terrible numbers he provides were uncharacteristic of Mike when you look at his previous seasons. All indications are that he fixed the contact holes after his recall on June 1st, and just continued to suffer with BABIP issues more than usual. ADD: From Cameron in October: The Jared he references is the gatekeeper of the Steamer projection system, which forecasts Moose to be a 3 WAR player next season. Jared's explanation on why that is, from the same article:
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 3, 2014 11:45:36 GMT -5
I don't see why they would. And I don't think it's fair to categorize him as not being a good player. Rather, I think he'll just be a late bloomer. He's above average defensively, has a good amount of pop in his bat, and has far better contact skills than someone like WMB. He suffered from a miserable .220 BABIP this season, easily the worst of anyone with 450+ plate appearances, and still was a win above replacement level. I can see him settling in as a nice 2-3.5 win player, although it's probably wise to sit him against a fair amount of lefties. Well perhaps it's a matter of tense; would you agree that he *has not been* a good player? Career wOBA ==> 293, wRC+==> 82 in 2000 PA; Royals even sent him to the minors this summer. Maybe he's just been unlucky 2000 times Sure, he hasn't been good, but he hasn't been awful, either. He's at 5.0 fWAR in his three full(ish) seasons, meaning he's been OK, but nothing special. His BABIP's have always run on the low side, though, and hit rock bottom, literally, in 2014, which was the only season I was really applying the "unlucky" label to. But he has a career 89 wRC+ and .152 ISO against RHP's, with plus defense and a BABIP that will regress positively. That's a guy I have some real confidence in to have some "good" seasons in the years ahead.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 3, 2014 10:28:07 GMT -5
Could see the Royals considering moving Moustakas - who isn't a good player but is at least average defensively and LH - anyone but another year of WMB/Bogaerts I don't see why they would. And I don't think it's fair to categorize him as not being a good player. Rather, I think he'll just be a late bloomer. He's above average defensively, has a good amount of pop in his bat, and has far better contact skills than someone like WMB. He suffered from a miserable .220 BABIP this season, easily the worst of anyone with 450+ plate appearances, and still was a win above replacement level. I can see him settling in as a nice 2-3.5 win player, although it's probably wise to sit him against a fair amount of lefties.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 3, 2014 9:53:13 GMT -5
If he's not at max value he should be. If he did not have a hiccup with the ML team at .481 era and a 4 - 3 w/l record, and, instead lit the place up, he'd be off the table and we'd be debating whether he's the #4 or #5 starter for 2015. He was IL pitcher of the year for 2014 (.261 era, 14 - 4 w/L) and an All Star selectee. He was also EL pitcher of the year for 2013. That said, I believe he would bring more back if he were traded than, say a Workman or Webster or Barnes. He would be attractive to teams such as CIN, ATL or SDO, to name a few, who are looking for ML ready, cost-controlled starters to slide into the rotation. The Reds, for example, will probably lose one or two regular starters this off-season. My point is that Ranaudo has a lot of value in the market at this time. Those numbers you list weren't the problem at all. It's the grotesque 6.89 FIP, and the stats that make up its components: 3.7 BB/9 3.4 K/9 2.3 HR/9 The K/9 was the worst in the majors (30 innings minimum), and the HR/9 was "worsted" only by Ernesto Frieri. He also had the 14th lowest BABIP (.225) of 413 pitchers. That's a small sample size, for sure, and it was at the end of the longest season of his life, but come on. He looked awful, and got lucky with the results. How can you say he has more value than Barnes, and even Webster? Ranaudo could find some success in a massive NL ballpark, maybe, but there are plenty of reasons to doubt his potential as a successful mid-rotation starter.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 2, 2014 23:07:28 GMT -5
Outside of Seattle and the mets, are there any other teams that cespedes makes sense for? Any team that is expecting to compete in 2015 and has a gap in the corner outfield, or a general desperation for power, is going to be interested at the very least. The Reds make a lot of sense, as Ludwick is done and Hamilton and Bruce OPS'd in the mid-600's in 2014. The Orioles are a possibility, with Markakis and Cruz's futures with the team up in the air, although I'd be quite surprised if both of them moved on. The Tigers may want to let Hunter walk/retire, and J.D. Martinez in the other corner is bound to regress significantly. I'd also expect the Giants, Cardinals, and even the Royals to at least give us a call.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 29, 2014 22:25:11 GMT -5
What's the last World Series Champion team to have a single player account for that much value? I mean, the Giants didn't have another starting pitcher they could count on, at all, to even last 2 innings.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 29, 2014 22:09:14 GMT -5
Strange that Yost has a guy on his bench who's only use is pounding lefties at an above average level (Willingham), and yet he's refused to PH him. Bumgarner absolutely mows through all these KC lefties. At this point, I'd say PH Willingham for Hosmer and PR if he gets on. Can't worry about what happens on defense if they tie it (Nix going to 1B).
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 29, 2014 21:08:09 GMT -5
Vehemently disagree with giving up an out on a sac bunt there -- even worse, keeping it on when you're up in the count 2-0.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 28, 2014 12:09:50 GMT -5
Just makes no sense. I get they might want to trade him, cool no problems with that. But why would they tranish his value on the trade market? They wouldn't and they didn't. But it's pretty unfortunate that a blurb from Bill Madden of NY that stems from god knows where is getting spun into the "the Red Sox intentionally trash all the players they don't like to the media -- no one leaves unscathed" narrative.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 27, 2014 9:38:29 GMT -5
With all the different analytics available these days, I'm curious why I have never seen a metric for evaluating trades. Using expected value you could construct a very rough comparison. There would be plenty of argument about hypothetical risks, and the dollar value of wins in the future, but the metric could at least help inform the debate. Well, you have WAR to compare player value. But trades depend so much on the context. What is each team's situation (record, areas of need, areas of surplus, etc.)? I see no way a that a metric can encapsulate all the relevant criteria.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 26, 2014 19:28:29 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 26, 2014 13:06:49 GMT -5
What about Chase Headley instead of Sandoval? We'd still have the money to go after two starters and a bullpen guy. It's a very sound alternative. Despite being a couple years older than Pablo, he's a much safer bet to last at third base over the duration of his contract (likely four seasons), while doing so at a plus-level. He's hasn't been as effective a hitter lately, but glancing at their stats, it's not unfathomable at all to imagine Headley having some better offensive seasons than Sandoval over the next few years.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 26, 2014 12:41:32 GMT -5
I've been really enjoying watching Pablo Sandoval play in the WS. Ever since he had that 3 HRs I've been a fan. The Red Sox should do everything they can to sign him. I just read he's seeking a contract in the range of the Hunter Pence deal(5 years 90 million) sounds reasonable if you ask me. However I believe signing Sandoval would be contingent on trading either Cespedes or Napoli. Both are free agents after this seasons and this team would be better suited having a 3-4-5 match up that's LRL rather then what they have now. So signing Sandoval would have my line up like this. CF- Betts 2B- Pedoria DH-Ortiz LF- Cespedes 3B-Sandoval SS-Bogarets RF-Castillo 1B- Nava or Craig C- Vazquez I'm not comfortable with essentially swapping out Napoli for Sandoval. In the lineup you suggest, that leaves us with a 4-7 that could conceivably combine for a .315 OBP. For the last two seasons, Napoli has lead MLB in pitches per plate appearance (while also being the best defensive 1B in the AL). Stacking the post-Ortiz part of the lineup with a bunch of hackers would be getting a bit too far away from the pesky strategy of taking pitches, working counts, and getting on-base. Now, moving Cespedes (in a package for pitching) makes a lot more sense to me, and we have quite a few RHH options to complement Nava and get close to matching Cespedes' production. Pablo has actually been a better hitter than YC the last two seasons, and he's a more reliable defender at a more valuable position. I'm just extremely wary of offering a Sandoval five years, and would want to explore some sort of weight limit in his contract, even if he/his agent may completely balk at that. As soon as he becomes a 1B/DH, he's simply not a good enough hitter to be worth anywhere near the AAV he'll be getting, even if we figure it'll be in 3-4 seasons with market prices continuing to grow. RF Betts 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz 1B Napoli 3B Sandoval CF Castillo LF Nava/Craig SS Bogaerts C Vazquez
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 24, 2014 14:06:32 GMT -5
Gotta throw it out there. Farrell to a front office position - to which he's long admitted aspiring - and Maddon as new manager. OK, turn on those flame throwers. Why would you get flamed for that? That's far from the dumbest idea I have heard on this board. I think it's more likely that he goes to the Dodgers as that would be the most obvious landing spot. Jeff Passan @jeffpassan · 1h 1 hour ago Dodgers are indeed out on Joe Maddon, as @ken_Rosenthal said. Not happening. Period. Cubs and Mets considered by friends to be favorites. Dylan Hernandez @dylanohernandez · 2h 2 hours ago Andrew Friedman: Don Mattingly will manage the #Dodgers next season. Joe Maddon's availability won't change that. But: Jeff Passan @jeffpassan · 59m 59 minutes ago One Maddon confidante believes he wouldn't have opted out without a sense of what the market would bear. And he wants to go big market.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 24, 2014 11:44:11 GMT -5
Also, this Craig is a "poor" defender stuff needs to stop. He's consistently played around average defense at the three easy positions, which, yes, gives him negative overall defensive value using positional adjustments, but he's a completely fine 1B/COF. He's significantly more reliable than Gomes in the outfield, and he's probably a better first baseman than Nava. Even in 2014 when he wasn't moving around like he previously did, he always looked competent, other than not displaying range you'd be comfortable playing in Fenway's RF on a frequent basis.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 24, 2014 9:32:10 GMT -5
Allen Craig because of his 2013 injury didn't workout during the offseason a year ago. That can lead to fatigue and decreased bat speed . But I don't buy that Craig suddenly forgot how to hit or that his dectrased bat speed is permenant. Given his age and the cirvumstances surrounding his 2014 performance, I think Craig is a good bet to rebound. Although we don't know to exactly what extent the 2013 injury affected his offseason, this is an excellent point. Throughout 2014, he did appear to be more "hobbled" or "clunky," if you will, and it seemed like it was due to more than just his foot.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 24, 2014 9:11:09 GMT -5
Can you think of a better late inning defensive replacement? At a position like center or right field, you shouldn't need a defensive replacement though. You're not going to keep a guy like Bradley, who isn't particularly speedy on the bases, on the roster just to replace the left fielder, especially on the Red Sox. That's a very key limitation of Bradley. Guys like Jarrod Dyson and Peter Bourjos, on the other hand, can be incredibly valuable reserve/part time players. ADD: Speaking of JBJ, here's a new article from Speier this morning on JBJ's tough season, with some comments from the man himself. Excerpt:
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 22, 2014 12:26:26 GMT -5
Cespedes has finished in the top 25 in power numbers for the last three years. 2012: .861 OPS (11th) HRs 13th in 2013, 20th in 2014 RBIs: 9th in 2014 (100) Nava seems relegated to a platoon role (w/Craig?) to fill the LF position should Cespedes be traded. Sox should be making a serious play for Heyward should Atlanta's efforts to extend him fail. You're blatantly cherry picking by sharing only his best stat each year. Why not aggregate across the last three years and see how good he's really been? 27th in HR 19th in RBI 71st in OPS 74th in wRC+ The last two, I might add, are the ones that really matter.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 22, 2014 9:37:28 GMT -5
Cespedes power bat is a commodity in short supply in the new MLB. I favored extending him due, not only to his production,but because of the issues with Papi's age and Napoli's maladies. However, his signing with ROC leads me to believe he'll definitely test the market leaving the Sox high and dry after the 2015 season. So I favor moving him in the offseason for a SP. But his bat must be replaced somehow.Keep in mind we're talking about a good player with power, but not really a tremendous offensive force. wRC+ vs. RHP:Nava, 2013: 146 Nava, 2014: 118 Cespedes, 2013: 83 Cespedes, 2014: 117 wRC+ vs. LHP:Cespedes, 2013: 142 Cespedes, 2014: 85 Craig, 2013: 117 Craig, 2014: 92 Victorino, 2013: 137 Victorino, 2014 (SSS): 109
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 21, 2014 20:49:39 GMT -5
The Big Game James thing is pretty much mocking at this point. Whether the announcers are feeding us the material intentionally or unintentionally is my only question. It'd be like going around saying "here comes Big Game Byung-Hyun!" Maybe this is old news, but I learned today that he got the nickname because he grew up a big James Worthy fan, and that was Worthy's nickname. That doesn't make it much more tolerable to hear, but at least he wasn't appointed it because of his postseason performances.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 21, 2014 20:44:39 GMT -5
By "their problem," you mean their best position player? Trading one year of Cesepedes and any minor league pitcher of ours isn't going to net four years of Puig.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 21, 2014 19:29:02 GMT -5
Big Game James with a miserable first inning. He's pretty damn lucky the Giants only got three there.
Love Hunter Pence. Everything he does is just so awkward-looking, yet he's an effective all around player. 420 feet bomb to dead center off Shields in the first.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 20, 2014 11:54:33 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 5m5 minutes ago Roc Nation (Jay-Z and Brodie Van Wagenen) now represents Yoenis Cespedes. #RedSox
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 17, 2014 12:56:25 GMT -5
Well, remember, the original plan when they traded for him was for Cespedes to play right field with Craig in left, but Cespedes said he didn't feel comfortable in right. Everything I read made it seem like this was only for 2014, but I wonder if his doing that opened the door for the Castillo-Betts CF-RF combo, and thus made Cespedes expendable. I'm inclined to agree that whatever defensive value he brings is severely hampered in left field at Fenway, whereas it'd be amplified in right. Another reason why it's hard for me to see those three and Victorino all on the roster entering next season. If Craig ever had to play in Right Field, we would be in trouble. Hey now, check his 2014 UZR, DRS, and Inside Edge ratings! But, yeah, he shouldn't ever get extended time in Fenway's RF, and with guys like Castillo, Betts, Victorino, and even Nava around, I'm not sure that he ever will.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 17, 2014 10:13:39 GMT -5
Can you imagine what would happen if Nap was put into a game due to dire emergency, was then forced onto the DL long term in his walk year because he blew out one of his hips with his disease that is well known and documented that's the reason Boston hasn't had him catch any at all since they signed him? It would cost him huge 5 figures after the season. Not picking on you here Philsbosox, but man.. He's passed whatever physicals I understand, but it's that "what if" on those hips and the degenerative issue there. He's perfectly fine to dive and tumble around at first base and isn't feeling any symptoms with his hip. I find it extremely unlikely that he'd suffer a devastating injury from three innings behind the plate.
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