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Post by mattpicard on Sept 8, 2014 14:31:04 GMT -5
Agree regarding JBJ. The possible problem I see re: Cespedes is that the market will likely think he's worth a lot more than he is. He's a barely above average hitter and a fringy LFer. That's not worth $20+ million a year, especially if he wants 6-7 years. Napoli is worth more than he is. I strongly disagree with you on your overall assessment of Cespedes. I do concede that Napoli has been a better overall hitter, but that difference is rapidly disappearing. People forget that Cespedes is only 26. His best years are yet ahead of him. Napoli's are behind him. I have read and heard many assessments of Cespedes, some by people who have seen him a lot over a period of time, and almost universally he is considered to be considerably better than you think he is. I really don't understand the downgrading of him that some have done on this site. He has hit close to .300 for the Sox, with power, and he has won games. He has an excellent throwing arm with a fair number of assists. I think he has been tentative in LF in Fenway Park, but I think that will diminish as he becomes more familiar with it. Not sure if this is a typo or you just keep forgetting, but jmei corrected you a couple days ago on this: Cespedes is 28, not 26. He will be 29 in one month, making the premise that "his best years are yet ahead of him" somewhat questionable. He has a 2.1 BB%, 22.5 K%, and 108 wRC+ with the Sox. He's been good at driving in runs, but he hasn't produced in such a way that I'd want him as my cleanup hitter over a full season.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 8, 2014 10:49:29 GMT -5
I'm with Eric on the Mookie at 3B argument. The "he's already had to learn something new so let's avoid throwing new challenges at him" argument is a terrible one, in my opinion. It's a season to experiment and clarify what we have for 2015. One thing we know we have is Victorino, Nava, Bradley, Craig, Cespedes, and Castillo all under contract to play the outfield for us. We also know that, barring a trade for a top grade player, Mookie is a starter for us. JBJ can go to the minors, but unless we want to dump multiple players who are far more valuable to us than anything we'd get in return for them (two of Craig, Nava, and Victorino), some type of accommodation needs to be made.
It seems logical that you'd try the guy with a plus-plus glove at second base at the third base, the one position where we don't have a clear starter for next. I can't stand the "he probably doesn't have the arm for it" option when we've never seen him get a chance. Remember how many people were against putting him in RF/CF before they actually saw him there, solely because there was a belief he didn't have the arm for it? Sure, he's not throwing missiles JBJ-style, but his arm appears perfectly average in the outfield.
There's no guarantee he'll take well to third, whether it be his throwing or something else that gives issue. But we're wasting valuable time not giving him a mere look in these final weeks of the season, instead playing a near lost cause at third in WMB. Once Pawtucket's season concludes, we're going to have the precise outfield logjam that's at issue for shaping 2015, minus Victorino of course.
Not even trying it and instead turning him exclusively into an outfielder only makes things more difficult for the team. The "glut" of free agent third base options doesn't appeal to me at all. You could attempt to get Headley or A-Ram for one year, and while that may be difficult, I don't get the appeal even if it's possible. Headley is on the wrong side of 30, and is going to give you good defense while you pray he can still wRC+ around 100. A-Ram has the lowest BB% (4.1%) and ISO (.147) of his career this year and while he's not a butcher at third, his range is rather abysmal (he's also 36). Sandoval is a good player but giving four or more years to a player with significant weight issues is always a risk.
Just try Betts at third base. If it's a disaster, put it to an end. No one try to say that it's not fair to do to him -- he can handle it just fine, and there's no pressure on him this month to do well at it.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 6, 2014 22:56:58 GMT -5
Mookie in a NESN interview is talking about how he has a special comfort batting in the leadoff spot (he's happy anywhere, but he likes leadoff the most).
Even if Castillo works out well offensively, does anyone really want to see him (or any non-Mookie) occupying our leadoff spot in 2015?
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 26, 2014 20:12:05 GMT -5
Henry Owens with another subpar outing: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 3 R, 4 BB, 8 K FWIW, 2 of the 8 hits were bunt singles, and another 2 were non-sharply hit ground balls that made it into the outfield. Subpar for his standards, but a quality start and not all that bad.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 26, 2014 20:07:47 GMT -5
Rubby has been throwing 98 MPH consistently tonight, that is good to see. The velocity is encouraging, but to get zero strikeouts with that heat, and throw so many high pitches indicates he clearly has some work to do before he becomes a reliable mid or top of the rotation pitcher.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 26, 2014 19:45:29 GMT -5
SSS, but poor JBJ. So far in 44 AAA PA's, he's basically posting the same K% and ISO as with Boston, only to see his BABIP and BB% plummet. Dude's a mess, but let us not forget that just a year ago, he was a very good hitter with Pawtucket. Without much trade value due to the offensive shortcomings, do we stash him in AAA as a regular in 2015 until he regains his productivity, and then use him as a part-time outfielder with the big club, and potential trade chip? At the moment, I think we all have enough concern with Castillo's offensive potential to make playing him outside of CF a bit unfeasible, and that very same concern goes for JBJ as well.
And as I'm about to post this, he hits a double for his second AAA XBH this year.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 26, 2014 19:09:45 GMT -5
Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 13m Garin Cecchini is 2/3 2B tonight... and he is ON FIRE. His last 16 games he is at .404/.477/.684
8 BB, 11 1B, 10 2B, 2 HR
Quite encouraging. I fully believe that Cecchini would be a better starting third baseman for the big club in 2015 than WMB.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 25, 2014 12:43:47 GMT -5
You don't just move a 27yo OF into the IF. Period. When was the last time you can recall any out-fielder being moved to the infield, at any level? It has worked out alright for Matt Carpenter on the Cardinals. Carpenter was never really an outfielder. Games in the minors by position: 3B: 322 1B: 3 OF: 3 Majors: 3B: 207 2B: 137 1B: 46 OF: 25 He's played less innings in the outfield in his career than Kevin Youkilis. Skip Schumaker comes to mind as a career outfielder who started playing a significant amount of second base during his age-29 season. He's racked up almost 500 games at 2B over the years, but he's borderline atrocious there.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 25, 2014 0:57:42 GMT -5
Mookie is not necessarily gone this offseason just because he doesn't have a place to play. The fact that he's 21 and is a good enough athlete to be moved to several positions is to me more of a sign he will eventually fit somewhere. I doubt a team as dreadful as this one won't have at least one glaring hole in the field (RF, SS, 3B) that Mookie won't be able to fill. He is a valuable trade chip though, just saying he doesn't have to be the guy to go just because its not obvious where he'll play next year. I'm a big Mookie fan, but I don't see where he plays. He's a 5th OF next season unless Victorino and Craig get hurt, which there is a legit shot of. The Red Sox have showed no inclination to try him on the left side of the infield yet, so I have to assume they don't see him as a SS or a 3b. The Sox certainly have had issues in both places, too, but they moved him to the OF. I hope you're right about the Sox not necessarily dealing him. They really don't have a guy like Betts that fits his profile. He has enough plate discipline, speed, and hit tool to be a very effective leadoff hitter, which is something the Sox really need. They do miss what Ellsbury gave them. I don't feel he's a very easily replaceable or expendable talent. Yet I really wish that they'd, at the very least, give him a look there this season. I'll keep this short because I feel like I've beaten this point into the ground, but Betts' reportedly had the makings of a plus-plus defensive second baseman whose concerns about his playability on the left side stemmed primarily from throwing concerns. Seeing him throw from the outfield has shown me that his arm is adequate, at worst, at any position. Not saying Betts definitely would offer a great glove at short or third, but I don't see why we can't try it. The outfield is pretty crowded, and in September we're going to have Castillo and JBJ needing playing time as well. Having Betts start doing some drills and pregame practice on the left side of the infield, and getting him 15 or so games in September would be greatly beneficial towards projecting how we can optimize the 2015 roster. And playing time allocation-wise, it'd only help smooth things out this season -- WMB is not part of an "optimal" roster and shouldn't be a guy blocking an important experiment. I'm sorry, but Mookie is just not a guy I'm OK trading away because of a logjam of players.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 20, 2014 18:34:37 GMT -5
Curious decision by Farrell not to challenge there.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 13, 2014 13:47:03 GMT -5
Tim Britton ?@timbritton 9s Right hand contusion for Cespedes.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 12, 2014 15:41:18 GMT -5
The rest of the way: It looks like Brock is the CF... moves to RF (for Nava) when JBJ comes in to run down a few in the 8-9th. When's Nava going on waivers? And it's a big mistake. If the team decides JBJ should not be in there close to everyday, he needs to go down to AAA and be replaced in the Sox lineup by Mookie Betts.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 19:25:51 GMT -5
You realize that there's a negative correlation between good fielding skills and good hitting skills, right? That's why the positions that require the best fielding skills are the ones that hit the least (CF, SS, 2B, C). If ability to field had anything to do with ability to hit, Jose Iglesias would hit like David Ortiz and vice-versa. They're just two very different skill sets, and the player who can do both at a high level are the Mike Trouts of the world; the rarest of the rare. Egad, you did not explain much of anything, and the negative correlation you throw out is sloppy and definitely not any kind of "law". as your statement suggest. You can find a number of players in the position you noted that were also good offensive players. Unless you can explain in what sense that they are very different skills sets, your statement does not say much. Oh well I'm not sure what you're looking for here. It's a massive leap to say that generally outstanding athleticism plus an elite specific talent (in this case playing the outfield) implies you have the ability to become better at other specific athletic skills. Is Lebron James bound to be successful at hitting baseballs well just because he shows incredible athleticism and coordination as a basketball player? Swinging a bat to hit a tiny object traveling at an extremely high velocity and running around to catch that object 250 feet away just aren't all that similar. There's no "law," it's just hard to be good at several different things. Baseball scouts evaluate five distinct tools for a reason (hitting, power, running, fielding, and throwing), and it's exceptionally rare you find players with four or five top tier tools. So saying Bradley Jr. is wizard in the field and thus should have the physical and mental ability to be good at something entirely different just doesn't make any sense to me.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 12:14:18 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 38s #Redsox recall LHP Eduardo Escobar from AAA. Obtained in Peavy deal.
*Edwin
RED SOX
RF Brock Holt 2B Dustin Pedroia LF Yoenis Cespedes DH Mike Napoli 1B Kelly Johnson SS Xander Bogaerts 3B Will Middlebrooks CF Jackie Bradley, Jr. C Dan Butler
RHP Rubby De La Rosa
@
ANGELS
RF Kole Calhoun CF Mike Trout DH Albert Pujols SS Erick Aybar 2B Howie Kendrick 3B David Freese 1B Efren Navarro C Chris Iannetta LF Colin Cowgill
LHP Hector Santiago
YC is 4 for 8 with 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K vs. Santiago. Could we see his first Sox bomb today?
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 11:49:53 GMT -5
At what point is sending Bogaerts down a good idea? I watch him lately and say, "he really could use some AAA time to rejuvenuate himself," but the more I think about it, I don't think it's a good idea. First, you want both Xander and Marrero getting everyday reps at SS, right? Afterall, evaluating Bogaerts' defensive profile going forward is just as important as his bat. And I don't see Marrero coming up to the big club soon, and it's a poor idea to start turning him into a utility type at AAA this early on. Say Xander goes to Pawtucket and starts killing the ball? Is that going to cure him? His confidence may be affected now, perhaps substantially, but that's not the root of the problem. He's atrocious at recognizing/making contact with/laying off breaking balls, particularly tough sliders. He's not going to see nearly enough of those challenging pitches in AAA. The more pitchers attack him at the MLB level, the more opportunity he has to work through it. He could start by.... maybe cutting down the amount he swings, period? He's really gotten away from himself in that department, becoming a pure hacker, consistently getting down in the count and being exploited more than ever. His K% is in the top 10 of qualified hitters, and he's 12th in strikeouts-swinging to strikeouts looking. Only Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Adam Dunn, and Yan Gomes have gone down hacking more than him (KS%).
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 11:25:43 GMT -5
There's a lot to be excited about. His BABIP is actually below the league average, and he's one of the youngest players in the league. His ISO even sits at .148 (and sadly is 53 points above Pedroia's), putting him in the upper half. Considering in all facets of his game, he's probably been a top-5 player in the South Atlantic.
When you combine his wheels and outstanding defense at a premium position with the reports of his plus bat speed, smoothness, and quick wrists (see our scouting report on him and the mentions he gets at BP), complemented by the favorable BB%/K% he's sporting, you know your dealing with a very special player.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 2:49:15 GMT -5
Hembree was outstanding. Shame we couldn't push anything across.
Probably a good time to mention that in both MLB and AAA, Brandon Workman has been pretty terrible this year. He's sporting a FIP above 4.50, and at the MLB level, his lowest ever K%, highest ever BB%, and diminished FB velocity. And he hasn't gotten unlucky, allowing a sub-.250 BABIP. Hard not to think we'd be better off putting him in the pen (where hopefully he could tick up the velocity a little bit) and let Ranaudo get an extended look in the rotation.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 2:19:29 GMT -5
And they still had PLENTY of time to get the out at home. bases loaded and no outs, you take the double play and concede the run. Pedroia should have turned it. 3 outs away from winning the game and a very fast runner going to first while there's a guaranteed out at the plate -- Sorry, I get that out every time and deal with the next two outs afterwards. Pedroia agrees (although he should have just tried turing the DP once Xander flipped to him).
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 1:20:46 GMT -5
Why on earth didn't Xander throw home? Wow. They were at double play depth. And they still had PLENTY of time to get the out at home.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 10, 2014 1:03:06 GMT -5
Why on earth didn't Xander throw home? Wow.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 9, 2014 23:02:51 GMT -5
Funny how JBJ's otherworldly defense makes people think he has fantastic speed, when in reality he's not that special of a runner. The Angels announcers are talking about his "incredible speed" and the need to watch out for him bunting for a single.
ADD: Wow. That's the best contact JBJ's made in.... almost forever it seems. Double play, of course.
ADD2: Red Sox Stats ?@redsoxstats 2m How about this...
Clay Buchholz threw 32 curveballs tonight... a career high.
ADD3: Unless it's Mookie Betts, I don't want to see a non-JBJ body patrolling center field for the rest of the season. Or next season.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 6, 2014 17:07:53 GMT -5
It's too early to be trashing Craig. Let's wait until we hear a legitimate diagnosis on his foot/ankle (one that clarifies his health status for 2015). Because if he can truly be healthy for next season, he's a very useful, above-average hitter. I'm curious as to why Cespedes isn't getting some work in RF in St. Louis? Perfectly symmetrical field, seems like a good opportunity. Not trashing him, but he seems like damaged goods. And the questions remain. Did we know he was damaged goods and if so, why did we trade for him? Especially when he has nowhere to play? I'm going to guess that Cespedes has requested to not play RF which makes this entire thing even weirder. We knew we were getting an established .800+ OPS hitter whose numbers fell off a cliff this year. Age isn't responsible -- it's almost certainly health-related, with the Tavarez/playing time issue also maybe playing a minor factor. There's also been word of his mechanics being off, likely a result of whatever's up with his foot. I highly doubt the Sox looked at 2014 as a random down year for him. Cespedes has indicated he's perfectly fine playing any of the three outfield positions. I really don't think he's made any such request. It's Farrell, not Cespedes.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 6, 2014 16:56:50 GMT -5
It's too early to be trashing Craig. Let's wait until we hear a legitimate diagnosis on his foot/ankle (one that clarifies his health status for 2015). Because if he can truly be healthy for next season, he's a very useful, above-average hitter.
I'm curious as to why Cespedes isn't getting some work in RF in St. Louis? Perfectly symmetrical field, seems like a good opportunity.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 6, 2014 0:14:24 GMT -5
Javy Baez with a game winning oppo blast in his major league debut. In extras. Gotta love it.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 5, 2014 16:44:07 GMT -5
Betts’ 2014 MiLB Splits: vs. RHP: .298/.388/.481/.869 vs. LHP: .427/.507/.624/1.131 Major platoon splits. Platoon player! Can they get Craig healed up so he can have a fresh start next season? It seems that this ankle or foot thing has been bothering him for almost two years. Can the guy get surgery and have it fixed? Its like he keeps trying to play through it and its not helping him or the club. Plus the sox might not make the playoffs anyway. Unless I'm missing something, I don't think there was anything wrong with Craig's foot until September 2013. But, yeah, I agree with the sentiment that there's no reason to play him until he's truly healthy.
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