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Nava
Sept 22, 2014 11:17:22 GMT -5
Post by mattpicard on Sept 22, 2014 11:17:22 GMT -5
For this to be true one of the following must be true. Either Nava's projected value isn't as high as you think it is, or everyone else in the league but you is a dolt. I think posters should remember that just about every team has smart people making decisions. Most teams have some sort of statistics department, and there are very few teams that don't value OBP. Yes there are still people employed in baseball who think that trading a top pitching prospect for a guy who hits 30 homers with an OBP of under .300 is a good idea, but generally those people get fired. There are teams that would love to have a cheap player with an above average OBP, even if he's a little older, doesn't hit for power, and can only play on the right side of the defensive spectrum. Specifically there were many teams, that were really harmed by too many players giving away at bats. Seattle, Atlanta, San Fransicsco, and Cincy are just four examples. You aren't getting a top 100 prospect for Nava, but I do think you can put him in a trade and reduce the cost for a player you really need. I think he'd fit perfectly for the Reds who have the perfect platoon partner in Ryan Ludwick. If you give them Victornio and Nava for Bruce and then take on Phillips too, how much more do you really have to give to get Cueto or Latos? The Reds outfield has been absolutely brutal this year, with only Hamilton providing any sort of value. Ludwick is a FA-to-be, and more or less garbage at this point, coming off two negative WAR seasons. Nava would be productive in a platoon for them, but I get the feeling they'd look to make a little more of a substantial upgrade. But please tell me why on earth we'd want Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips? Phillips is making eight figures through 2017 and is a below average hitter and a pain in the ass. We have two far superior options at second.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 20, 2014 15:14:18 GMT -5
Well, obviously we sure shot ourselves in the foot(Plaxico Burress anyone?) with Lackey trade. Craig is a stiff. That's no way to talk about our cleanup hitter... Betts 2B Bogaerts SS Ortiz DH Craig 1B Nava LF Castillo CF Bradley Jr RF Middlebrooks 3B Vazquez C De La Rosa RHP @ De Aza LF Pearce 1B Jones CF Cruz RF Young DH Hardy SS Flaherty 3B Hundley C Schoop 2B Tillman RHP
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 19, 2014 9:45:14 GMT -5
Why is Bradley getting any at bats? He costs us because he can't hit. He costs us what, though? And do you really want to play Weeks over him whenever Castillo gets an off day? JBJ has more to benefit from with these at bats this month than anyone else, save for maybe Castillo and the other guys who were just called up.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 18, 2014 10:20:28 GMT -5
I hope people aren't under the impression that Pedroia is now a mediocre player who will be greatly overpaid going forward. In an injury shortened season that included him playing through some ailments, he posted a 4.3 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR. Yes, those are heavily fueled by defense, but this isn't a case of a guy getting a questionable WAR boost due to unreliable metrics. He really is elite at second base, as we see him make non-stop run saving plays and very rarely flub anything. Until his defense significantly declines and/or he becomes worse than a league average hitter, he's a true asset, not some beloved veteran with middling performance that we have to tolerate.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 14:40:03 GMT -5
He very well may be. He was certainly deserving of a top ~10 spot this summer. My concern with him becoming a consistently top player at the MLB level is that, if he's not a center fielder, he really has to hit well and grow into a plus defender. I'm certain that he will become a good outfielder, but if he hits "just" .280-.300 with a ~125 wRC+, while that's pretty valuable, he'd be more of a very good player than an elite one. Xander, on the other hand, could grow into a 120-140 wRC+ guy at SS which would make him rather elite (I won't bother to go into my belief that Mookie could easily be as good of a defensive shortstop as Xander). Just wait and see! If our another top prospect still fails again,I think you will regret that we don't use him to bring back an ace pitcher which is our first step to improve now! What ace pitcher? There's even more risk with the pitcher than there is for Mookie. Is he going to be on the wrong side of 30? How much is he signed for and for how many years? Has his K% been moving in the right or wrong direction? We're not getting Sale, King Felix, or Kershaw. The options for a true ace in return for Mookie, and whatever else it'll cost, are quite limited, and for the older one's, quite risky to give away a guy who projects to be a perennial 4-6 WAR player.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 14:28:40 GMT -5
By the way, I'm not convinced that Mookie isn't a top-3-type prospect. He came in second (behind Bryant) on Keith Law's list, and if he were eligible for BA/BP/etc.'s lists (which I don't think he is), I'm confident he'd be in the top 5 and maybe the top 3. Also, the idea that player performance is uncertain cuts both ways. We don't know if Betts is going to be a great player next year, but we don't know that Bruce will be, either. The risk is maybe somewhat higher with a prospect like Betts, but Bruce is also coming off a below-replacement-level year, and he's definitely not some sure thing either. He very well may be. He was certainly deserving of a top ~10 spot this summer. My concern with him becoming a consistently top player at the MLB level is that, if he's not a center fielder, he really has to hit well and grow into a plus defender. I'm certain that he will become a good outfielder, but if he hits "just" .280-.300 with a ~125 wRC+, while that's pretty valuable, he'd be more of a very good player than an elite one. Xander, on the other hand, could grow into a 120-140 wRC+ guy at SS which would make him rather elite (I won't bother to go into my belief that Mookie could easily be as good of a defensive shortstop as Xander). Yes, Xander was a top 3 prospect last year -- he was basically a giga prospect. Just because Mookie isn't a top 3 type doesn't mean he isn't big. He is. He would have ranked in the top 25 of mid-season top prospects lists had he not exhausted his eligibility by playing in MLB. Sure, he wasn't on the radar the minute he came into the Sox organization, but he sure morphed into a fantastic prospect. Also, just because Xander was regarded at a higher level doesn't mean Mookie has an equal or greater chance to struggle. I already mentioned why I think Mookie's profile as a hitter will prevent him from having the kind of extended trouble that Xander went through for those brutal three months mid-season. Not sure what else I can say. How do I know that Mookie is more valuable than Bruce right now? He already has a far better hit tool, he certainly has a better running tool, and his fielding very well could be superior as he continues to acclimate to the outfield and Bruce loses range. And can we stop acting like Bruce is some standout weapon in right field? He's had two very good defensive seasons, and a few mediocre ones, including this year which has been pretty poor. He's no Reddick, Heyward, or Victorino out there. What you said about Betts just makes me think of Ryan Kalish. Wish him not to be like Kalish's final! I think that midseason's ranking is not very accurate,Domonic Brown was selected No.1 prospect of MLB,is his performance equal to what scout report told us? In the preseason ranking, Betts is just No.75. Most of prospects in front of him graduated from Milb,so he had the chance to climb up to top 25. I still projects him as a "good player" but a "excellant"one! Dude, I don't know what it is with you and the Ryan Kalish comp, but they aren't that similar at all. Kalish was never a .300 hitter in the minors, and didn't have the range to develop into a long term regular in center. He always struck out twice as much as Betts and walked less often, too. He was a scrappy player who people hoped would be a nice fringe-starting corner outfielder with good defense and average hitting.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 14:01:18 GMT -5
In August, Bogaerts hit .123/.195/.164. In April and May, he hit .304/.397/.438 and was the best hitter on the team. So the answer is yes. Betts is also a different type of hitter than Bogaerts, as his swing is less prone to whiffs and he's also shown a better ability to recognize tough breaking pitches. Basically, and this obviously isn't set in stone, but Betts just seems like the type who doesn't need as long of a period to adjust to pitching at the MLB level. Also, FWIW, Betts (160 PA) has accumulated 2.3 more fWAR than Jay Bruce (511 PA) this season. Xander Bogaerts is a well-regarded super prospects. Manny scouts saw him as an immediate-ready player to shine in MLB,but this year,what he did told us that even a "Big one" prospect still need time to grow up,not to mention Betts. Betts is seen as a good prospect but not a "Big one". So the"Big one" even has trouble this year,why do you still have so much confidence on him to become a star next year? Anything could happen in this world,so don't say that too early.(in the beginning of this year,it seems that the Sox has a lot of outfielders to use,but what the result it brought to us?) I saw manny people praise Ryan Kalish very much here four years ago,said that he will be our RF in the future. And then, a variety of injury destroy his career. See! What does he look like now? Maybe Betts will get injuried next year,and he won't bounce back like Ryan Kalish,I think that will be a big loss for us! How do you think Betts is bound to be a better player than Bruce? He hasn't really prove himself because of his limited appearance. Can he keep that fantastic stats in full season? Maybe sure and maybe not. I think he is at least not an untouchable asset such as XB,so I support the idea to deal him for an ace pitcher. Yes, Xander was a top 3 prospect last year -- he was basically a giga prospect. Just because Mookie isn't a top 3 type doesn't mean he isn't big. He is. He would have ranked in the top 25 of mid-season top prospects lists had he not exhausted his eligibility by playing in MLB. Sure, he wasn't on the radar the minute he came into the Sox organization, but he sure morphed into a fantastic prospect. Also, just because Xander was regarded at a higher level doesn't mean Mookie has an equal or greater chance to struggle. I already mentioned why I think Mookie's profile as a hitter will prevent him from having the kind of extended trouble that Xander went through for those brutal three months mid-season. Not sure what else I can say. How do I know that Mookie is more valuable than Bruce right now? He already has a far better hit tool, he certainly has a better running tool, and his fielding very well could be superior as he continues to acclimate to the outfield and Bruce loses range. And can we stop acting like Bruce is some standout weapon in right field? He's had two very good defensive seasons, and a few mediocre ones, including this year which has been pretty poor. He's no Reddick, Heyward, or Victorino out there.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 11:53:23 GMT -5
Do you guys still think Pedroia will win the Gold Glove? Considering he played in 135 games and is out for the season does that impact the voting? He better. Kinsler is the only other second baseman who has come close to matching Pedroia's stellar defense. Peds leads all MLB 2B's in DRS, UZR, UZR/150, and Def (FG). He's saved the most runs this season in total and on a rate basis, and while Kinsler has a chance to pass him in DRS this month, Pedroia pretty clearly has been the superior overall defender.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 10:38:16 GMT -5
They've been almost exactly in the middle of the pack in the AL by most pitching metrics and have played good defense, but rank 14/15 in wOBA, wRC+ and BsR. We're deadlast in slugging. Somewhat interestingly, we're also last in swing% and z-swing%, yet first in zone% (meaning we see the highest rate of strikes thrown yet have the lowest rate of swinging at strikes). The bad luck has been from injuries and regression from nearly everyone performing terrifically last year and taking significant steps backwards in 2014. You also need to keep in mind the young guys we slotted into everyday roles who struggled to perform close to their projected levels (JBJ, Bogaerts). The team BABIP is slightly below average, but it's still a fairly normal .295. Bad luck or poor decisions and policies? Regardless, found interesting what many suspected,- lowest slugging and taking pitches, suggesting a policy of working the count more so than "selective aggressive". Sometimes ' luck' is used when you don't have an explanation or making excuses. Not saying it does not exist , but get suspicious when some used the concept to explain. A good mechanic does not blame his tools. All teams have injuries, but some go on and get good replacements. Must admit though that the "minor" injuries to Dustin and Napoli were different in kind and hard to address. As many have said though, their decision to replace the middle of the field with questionable replacements got the ball going downhill. This has been hashed out before, so take it or leave it. The decision on Lester was just stupid. If they weren't such jerks, they could have signed him earlier. If teams wait and players approach FA, more than likely you will lose them if. like the Sox, you do not want to pay "market rates" Furthermore, there weren't any replacements for him, and their pitching stock was thin ( again overestimating or believing the hype about "prospects'). Would like to see though what they do this winter. If you think you can lay some stats out on the table and come up with an "answer", good luck and eat a banana a day. Human decisions and polices matter, believe it or not. I understand your sentiment with Lester, but I don't think it was as stupid of them as you make it sound. Before the final 3 months of 2013, Lester was a guy I wanted no part of paying anywhere near a top of the rotation market rate to in a 5 or 6 year deal. Even after his terrific run down the stretch last season, he still hadn't convinced me it was worth it. After all, it was a starter reaching the age of 30, and, before the 2013 rebound, coming off 4 straight seasons of a worsening ERA, xFIP, WAR and K-BB%. Even a 90/5 contract would have made me hesitate, only to see him go on to pitch at an elite level this season, making that type of deal look like an absolute steal in hindsight. Yes, their low-ball offer before this season was a bit perplexing and insulting, but it's not like they should have been unquestionably offering him 120/6, either.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 17, 2014 7:57:44 GMT -5
Random thought: Red Sox are 9th in pitching fWAR and 19th in offensive fWAR and have the 5th worst record in all of MLB. How is that possible? Just bad luck? They've been almost exactly in the middle of the pack in the AL by most pitching metrics and have played good defense, but rank 14/15 in wOBA, wRC+ and BsR. We're deadlast in slugging. Somewhat interestingly, we're also last in swing% and z-swing%, yet first in zone% (meaning we see the highest rate of strikes thrown yet have the lowest rate of swinging at strikes). The bad luck has been from injuries and regression from nearly everyone performing terrifically last year and taking significant steps backwards in 2014. You also need to keep in mind the young guys we slotted into everyday roles who struggled to perform close to their projected levels (JBJ, Bogaerts). The team BABIP is slightly below average, but it's still a fairly normal .295.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 16, 2014 14:29:26 GMT -5
Wow. That's about all I can say. Are you honestly telling me nobody on the Red Sox has a great arm to throw runners out at the plate (OF can also throw runners out at 2b and 3b, too and even at 1b on the rarest of occasions)? Have you ever heard of Yoenis Cespedes or seen his throws? If you did you'd realize he has a fantastic arm. Then ask yourself why the Sox haven't exactly rushed to throw him into RF at Fenway. The answer is because the extra baserunners he holds up doesn't measure to the value of defensive ability to turn the batted ball into outs, especially ones in the spacious RF of Fenway. You need to have CF capabilities to play RF at Fenway which is something Cespedes doesn't have despite his rocket arm. Betts would make a lot of catches that Cespedes would turn into doubles and eventual runs for the opposition. Also keep in mind that Victorino has a good arm as well and would normally be the best choice for RF if he were completely healthy. As far as your other "measurements" of Betts, all I can do is shake my head and laugh. You have no idea what a multi-faceted offensive asset looks like because you're hung up on certain images that have little basis in reality. Rotisserie fantasy baseball isn't real baseball. If you were the GM of another team you'd get fleeced left and right. jrffam05 said everything else there is to say as good as it can be said. Why do you have so much confidence on Betts? XB did well last year and played a key one to help Red Sox won the World Series! Does he do that again before August this year? So don't to say Betts will be great one next year too early. Ryan Kalish had a bright future before in the Sox's uniform and I saw a lot of fans praised him very much at that time. We saw him as our next long-term RF then. And then is there anything big he has given to us? In August, Bogaerts hit .123/.195/.164. In April and May, he hit .304/.397/.438 and was the best hitter on the team. So the answer is yes. Betts is also a different type of hitter than Bogaerts, as his swing is less prone to whiffs and he's also shown a better ability to recognize tough breaking pitches. Basically, and this obviously isn't set in stone, but Betts just seems like the type who doesn't need as long of a period to adjust to pitching at the MLB level. Also, FWIW, Betts (160 PA) has accumulated 2.3 more fWAR than Jay Bruce (511 PA) this season.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 14, 2014 13:06:57 GMT -5
Please note that the 2014 SoxProspect Season End Awards polls were posted in the Meta Forum as well. Voting will end on Thursday, September 18th at 3:00pm, so be sure to cast your votes if you haven't already done so!
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 12, 2014 8:27:14 GMT -5
Tommy Layne looks like our Lefty specialist next season. If we can sign Andrew Miller, Our bullpen will be one of the strengths of this team next season. Miller will cost...maybe $14M/year? The only relievers who have ever been paid $14+ million AAV are Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano. Maybe a team hands Miller ~$33-36 million over 3 years to close, but that's a ton of money to pay a non-closer reliever. I'd hesitantly offer $27M/3yrs.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 21:59:14 GMT -5
Place your vote for the ex Red Sox prospect who you think has had the best season in the majors in 2014. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18. Major league stats are listed through September 10.
Jacoby Ellsbury: 535 ABs, .280/.340/.432, 15 HR, 49/88 BB/K, 38 SB Brandon Moss: 464 ABs, .237/.331/.440, 23 HR, 58/142 BB/K, 1 SB Dustin Pedroia: 551 ABs, .278/.337/.376, 7 HR, 51/75 BB/K, 6 SB Anthony Rizzo: 486 ABs, .278/.375/.514, 30 HR, 65/106 BB/K, 4 SB
Jon Lester: 14-10, 2.52 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 199/42 K/BB Anibal Sanchez: 8-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 102/30 K/BB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 21:51:20 GMT -5
Place your vote for the Red Sox prospect who graduated in 2014 who you think will go on to have the best career. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18 at 3:00 PM ET. Major league stats are listed through September 10.
Mookie Betts: 125 ABs, .280/.357/.448, 4 HR, 14/20 BB/K, 5 SB Xander Bogaerts: 482 ABs, .237/.301/.365, 11 HR, 38/125 BB/K, 2 SB Jackie Bradley, Jr.: 352 ABs, .213/.285/.287, 1 HR, 31/111 BB/K, 8 SB Christian Vazquez: 134 ABs, .224/.285/.276, 0 HR, 13/23 BB/K, 0 SB
Allen Webster: 3-3, 6.47 ERA, 1.612 WHIP, 26/25 K/BB Alex Wilson: 1-0, 2.31 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, 15/5 K/BB Brandon Workman: 1-9, 5.27 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, 64/33 K/BB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 21:17:26 GMT -5
Place your vote for the DSL Red Sox player who you feel had the best season in 2014. Please do not vote based on who you think is the best prospect or who you think may perform better in the future. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18 at 3:00 pm. Full stats are available here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php and www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.phpRoldani Baldwin: 242 ABs, .269/.357/.384, 4 HR, 27/41 BB/K, 3 SB Luis Alexander Basabe: 148 ABs, .284/.408/.480, 0 HR, 30/36 BB/K, 13 SB (excludes GCL stats) Raiwinson Lameda: 199 ABs, .307/.360/.412, 2 HR, 14/27 BB/K, 13 SB
Gerson Bautista: 2-1, 1.03 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 32/21 K/BB Jhonathan Diaz: 6-2, 1.63 ERA, 0.935 WHIP, 54/16 K/BB Daniel Gonzalez: 9-0, 2.25 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, 56/14 K/BB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 20:03:09 GMT -5
Place your vote for the first-year Red Sox minor league player who you feel had the best season in 2014. Please do not vote based on who you think is the best prospect or who you think may perform better in the future. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18 at 3:00 PM ET. All stats are cumulative for all Red Sox minor league affiliates. Full stats are available here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php and www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.phpJordan Betts (LOW): 242 ABs, .269/.333/.479, 10 HR, 25/76 BB/K, 1 SB Rafael Devers (DSL/GCL): 261 ABs, .322/.404/.506, 7 HR, 34/50 BB/K, 5 SB Sam Travis (LOW/GRE): 272 ABs, .316/.351/.467, 7 HR, 11/32 BB/K, 5 SB
Kevin McAvoy (LOW): 0-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 23/3 K/BB Jhonathan Diaz (DSL): 6-2, 1.63 ERA, 0.935 WHIP, 54/16 K/BB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 19:55:09 GMT -5
Place your vote for the player that you feel had the best "comeback" season in 2014. A "comeback player" is one who you judge to have re-emerged on the baseball field or as a prospect during the past season. Please do not vote based on who you think is the best prospect or who you think may perform better in the future. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18 at 3:00 pm. All stats are cumulative for all Red Sox minor league affiliates. Nominees for Breakout Player of the Year are not eligible to be nominated in this category. Full stats are available here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.php and www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.phpCarson Blair (SAL/POR): 297 ABs, .266/.387/.481, 11 HR, 58/107 BB/K, 0 SB Sean Coyle (POR): 336 ABs, .295/.371/.512, 16 HR, 38/95 BB/K, 13 SB Derrik Gibson (POR/PAW): 369 ABs, .290/.368/.396, 4 HR, 42/69 BB/K, 10 SB
Chris Hernandez (PAW): 5-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.513 WHIP, 75/60 K/BB Aaron Kurcz (POR): 3-2, 2.14 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 54/22 K/BB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 19:45:47 GMT -5
Place your vote for the player that you feel had the best "breakout" season in 2014. A "breakout player" is one who becomes a significant prospect after previously being considered less than such, or also one who rises from non-prospectdom to vault himself into prospect status. Players in their first pro seasons are also not eligible to be breakout players. Players nominated for Comeback Player of the Year are also not eligible to be nominated as breakout players. Please do not vote based on who you think is the best prospect or who you think may perform better in the future. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18 at 3:00 pm ET. All stats are cumulative for all Red Sox minor league affiliates. Full stats are available here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.php and www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.phpCarlos Asuaje (GRE/SAL): 480 ABs, .310/.393/.533, 15 HR, 59/90 BB/K, 8 SB Rafael Devers (DSL/GCL): 261 ABs, .322/.404/.506, 7 HR, 34/50 BB/K, 5 SB Nick Longhi (LOW): 109 ABs, .330/.388/.440, 0 HR, 11/22 BB/K, 0 SB Manuel Margot (GRE/SAL): 420 ABs, .293/.356/.462, 12 HR, 39/54 BB/K, 42 SB
Brian Johnson (SAL/POR): 13-3, 2.13 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 132/39 K/BB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 19:35:38 GMT -5
Place your vote for the Red Sox minor league pitcher who you feel had the best season in 2014. Please do not vote based on who you think is the best prospect or who you think may perform better in the future. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18 at 3:00 pm ET. All stats are cumulative for all Red Sox minor league affiliates. Full stats are available here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/pitching.phpJonathan Aro (GRE/SAL): 3-3, 2.16 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 98/29 K/BB Justin Haley (SAL/POR): 10-6, 2.35 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 107/39 K/BB Brian Johnson (SAL/POR): 13-3, 2.13 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 132/39 K/BB Henry Owens (POR/PAW): 17-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 170/59 K/BB Anthony Ranaudo (PAW): 14-4, 2.61 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 111/54 K/BB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 19:19:37 GMT -5
Place your vote for the Red Sox minor league player who you feel had the best offensive season in 2014. Please do not vote based on who you think is the best prospect or who you think may perform better in the future. This poll will close on Thursday, September 18 at 3:00 pm ET. All stats are cumulative for all Red Sox minor league affiliates. Full stats are available here: www.soxprospects.com/stats/hitting.phpCarlos Asuaje (GRE/SAL): 480 ABs, .310/.393/.533, 15 HR, 59/90 BB/K, 8 SB Mookie Betts (POR/PAW): 399 ABs, .346/.431/.529, 11 HR, 61/50 BB/K, 33 SB Sean Coyle (POR): 336 ABs, .295/.371/.512, 16 HR, 38/95 BB/K, 13 SB Rafael Devers (DSL/GCL): 261 ABs, .322/.404/.506, 7 HR, 34/50 BB/K, 5 SB Jantzen Witte (GRE/SAL): 490 ABs, .312/.379/.500, 12 HR, 54/97 BB/K, 5 SB
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 17:24:39 GMT -5
So the plan is to have Mookie play 2B full time the rest of the way. Sure, it's out of necessity, but if they aren't going to focus on him playing exclusively outfield, I really wish they'd give him a look at SS or 3B.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 11, 2014 14:10:05 GMT -5
I think the team is headed down for 2015 season. They have too many holes to fill in. I'll be more shock if Cherington/Farrell doesn't lose their job based on 2012 & 2014 seasons (Ben) and this season (John). Theo have 9 winning seasons until Sept, 2011 collapse. He lost his job for horrible month. Grady Little lost his job for unable to pull out Pedro early during 2003 playoffs. Terry Francona lost his job for give ball to Daniel Bard so often during Sept collapse and lose all games that Daniel failed to do his job (unable to get strike or get out). Bob Valentine lose his job for the same reason as this current 2014 team (awful all phases of pitching, hitting & fielding and mostly unwatchable games). That 2014 is much worst than 2012. I think Henry/Werner/Lucchino are lunatic enough not to fire Ben and/or John for their poor decisions. Theo is much better GM than Ben is and always field solid teams. No last place finish. Ben got 2 losing seasons out of 3. That's too many. JBJ, Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are failed as full time starter as MLB hitters. Drew still can't hit. Victorino, Petey & Napoli been hurting. I cannot see better 2015 team with all same players around. Bucholz, RDLR, Kelly, Webster & Ranaudo are not championship caliber pitching staffs that can carry all way. There's no hope for the team if Ben/John are safe. You're being way too hard on Cherington, in my opinion. Firstly, how can you blame 2012 on him? 1) The previous GM, your boy Theo, left Ben in the tough position of having Crawford, Gonzo, and Beckett signed to mega contracts that greatly limited our flexibility. Ben was able to pull off a miracle trade in a year where Gonzo had a meager (for him) 117 OPS+, Crawford played only 31 games, and Becket was posting a career low K% and getting pounded nearly every start. 2) Lucchino also bypassed Cherington's first big recommendation under his tenure, hiring a new manager, instead selecting a joke of a person who we all knew wouldn't be successful manning the ship in Boston. 3) And on top of that, Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz played 74 and 90 games, respectively, while the lowest ERA of any starter in a rotation that included Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, and Doubront was Lester's 4.82 mark. Please, 2012 is not on Cherington. As for 2014, many have pointed out that there was widespread consensus going into the season from fans, analysts, and projection systems that the Red Sox were, at absolute worst, a competitive team in the hunt for a playoff spot.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 8, 2014 17:25:37 GMT -5
and an extra month now probably helps a lot in terms of making him the best possible defender next April. I'm not talking about taking away a month of his outfield reps. There are 19 games left, the majority of which will be spent with six guys vying for outfield time, and two of them (Cespedes and, when he arrives, Castillo), playing just about everyday. Having Mookie take some reps at third before games and giving him 5 or 6 starts won't hurt much of anything. If he does end up going into 2015 as our starting CF or RF, he'll get a ton of time there in ST, and when he makes a mistake during the regular season, I don't think people are going to attribute it to a handful of starts he received in the previous season at another position. there's also the fact that WMB loses at-bats; even if he's likely a lost cause, you want to be as sure as possible I’m pretty damn sure. You’re not? I honestly find it extremely unlikely that 3B is his best position long-term for reasons discussed above. If you think he's a plus corner outfielder, he has to be an above-average defensive third baseman to even start thinking about converting him, let alone for the benefits of giving him time there this season to overwhelm the costs. I agree in that I don’t see him being best suited for 3B. I’ve actually been an advocate for trying him at SS (Xander moving to 3B), but I suppose you’d be against that for similar concerns about his arm. It’s also become far more unlikely since I first started pushing for it, as Bogaerts has looked relatively grounded at SS lately. But with Victorino, Bradley, and Castillo, you have three very capable defenders to cover the two spots that Betts would play in the outfield, and Nava and Craig aren't horrible. Regarding Betts and being a plus corner outfielder, I said that he will become one, not that he necessarily is right now — Victorino, JBJ, and Castillo are better defenders at the moment. Why does he have to be above-average at third base to move him out of a position that a) he’s still imperfect at, and b) has several other players who can only play that position and are as good as or better than Betts at it?
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 8, 2014 14:57:37 GMT -5
Again, a beautiful and well-reasoned argument, whose conclusion leads you inexorably to ... hey, let's try Betts at 3B during this garbage time of September and confirm our suspicion that he probably can't play there, because if he surprises us (Q: has Mookie Betts ever done anything surprisingly well on a baseball field? I mean, besides everything?), that will be a great boon. The downside is that you're putting one more thing on his plate this year, but that's worth it if in fact you need to find out now in order to either get a 3B this winter, or not. I mean, if there's a 10% chance he can play 3B well, then give it it a shot, because if he can, that's massively good. Compare the cost / benefit versus the distraction of a brief unsuccessful trial. But they have no interest trying him there now, and have instead admitted a willingness to try him there in ST. In fact, they've said, if it happens, it will happen then. That's .... odd, don't you think? Based on your argument, wouldn't it either be "we'll try that now" or "we'll never bother trying it?" This is, you know, that third, other thing. I'm with Eric on the Mookie at 3B argument. The "he's already had to learn something new so let's avoid throwing new challenges at him" argument is a terrible one, in my opinion. It's a season to experiment and clarify what we have for 2015. One thing we know we have is Victorino, Nava, Bradley, Craig, Cespedes, and Castillo all under contract to play the outfield for us. We also know that, barring a trade for a top grade player, Mookie is a starter for us. JBJ can go to the minors, but unless we want to dump multiple players who are far more valuable to us than anything we'd get in return for them (two of Craig, Nava, and Victorino), some type of accommodation needs to be made. It seems logical that you'd try the guy with a plus-plus glove at second base at the third base, the one position where we don't have a clear starter for next. I can't stand the "he probably doesn't have the arm for it" option when we've never seen him get a chance. Remember how many people were against putting him in RF/CF before they actually saw him there, solely because there was a belief he didn't have the arm for it? Sure, he's not throwing missiles JBJ-style, but his arm appears perfectly average in the outfield. There's no guarantee he'll take well to third, whether it be his throwing or something else that gives issue. But we're wasting valuable time not giving him a mere look in these final weeks of the season, instead playing a near lost cause at third in WMB. Once Pawtucket's season concludes, we're going to have the precise outfield logjam that's at issue for shaping 2015, minus Victorino of course. They're already running an experiment with Mookie this year-- playing him in the outfield. He's clearly not a finished product in the outfield defensively, which is why the rest of this season is so valuable-- because it gives him important developmental reps there while the stakes are still low. You have to weigh the 10% chance he plays 3B well against the 90% chance that he doesn't and just ends up wasting valuable development time just messing around at a position that he's probably not best suited-for long-term. Sure, the tangible cost of that lost development time probably isn't huge, but from my POV, it's so much more likely that he's a more valuable player in RF that it's still not worth the effort. The same logic is true with regards to trying him at 3B during next year's Spring Training. Remember, this is the type of decision where the front office just has much more information at its fingertips than we do. They know much more than any of us how well his arm projects to 3B and whether he has the kind of mental aptitude/focus to handle learning a position he's probably literally never played before, on the fly (i.e., with no prior instruction, not even taking ground balls there), at the major league level. The fact that it appears that the front office has not seriously considered moving Mookie to 3B is thus fairly telling. By the way, reading that Cherington quote as suggesting that they want to try Betts at 3B in ST 2015 is seriously stretching it. He says that they don't expect to try Betts at 3B and that they'll focus on 2B and the outfield for him. While he leaves some wiggle room to back out of it and GMs do occasionally lie/mislead/change their minds, the quote itself is fairly clear-- no Betts at 3B. Not at all, but does anyone really doubt that he has what it takes to become a plus corner OF, and at least an average CF, with more experience? His long term ability to play the OF isn't going to be damaged by trying out 3B for 10 games or some this season. I think it's pretty foolish to assume that those are his odds at 3B. And since it seems like his arm is your biggest concern, it really would only take a few grounders his way to answer questions about whether that tool is legitimately playable at 3B. His OF experience isn't going to suffer because of a handful or two of lost reps.
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