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Post by mattpicard on Oct 17, 2014 8:15:41 GMT -5
He's looked sketchy for us because he hasn't (as yet) learned to play LF in Fenway. But (aggregating UZR, DRS, and 1/2 weight TZ) he's been a career +7 R/150 in LF, or +4 if you include his bad play in CF translated to LF. So he's good, though nothing special, and all of the goodness is the plus arm; range-wise he's just average or a tick below. Part of the problem is that his defense is not really well-suited for Boston's left field. He doesn't read the ball very well coming off the bat and takes bad routes, but makes up for it with excellent acceleration and elite top-end speed. That's perfectly suited for a big home stadium like O.co, where he can make up for bad routes by just being really fast. But because Fenway's LF is so small, it stresses his routes and reads (especially in terms of playing the wall) while diminishing the impact of his speed. Plus, the fact that the Monster is so close to the infield might actually deflate the value of his arm. The value of a cannon-armed left fielder is lessened in Fenway because most guys will be able to make the necessary throws just because it's so close to home plate/second base. Not only are his reads questionable, but the guy is blatantly lost when it comes to playing the wall, whether it's knowing when he has more room to make a catch, or getting himself in position to field a carom. This was an issue both at and away from Fenway Park. The throwing components of UZR and DRS gave him an incredible boost in their overall valuations of his defense in 2014, but in terms of range, he's rated below average in two of his three seasons by both metrics. Yes, outside of throwing, he has the athleticism to make plays that several left fielders wouldn't make, but he's also prone to botch a bunch, too. At a park like Fenway, I'd wager that reliability/consistency is more important than costly flubs and occasional plus plays, even if overall YC's UZR and DRS rate similarly to such a player.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 16, 2014 22:40:06 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 16, 2014 12:08:29 GMT -5
The pick packaged with Cespedes makes sense to me. Turning half a year of Lester into (basically) 1.5 of iwakuma is a good good deal. Especially because I can see Iwakuma being not so difficult to extend because he manages to float under the radar. Also interesting on iwakuma: He gives up .5 HR/9 more on the road. You'd think it would be the other way around. Just found that a little odd. Maybe it's because Safeco isn't that bad for LHB now. Makes Fenway even better of a for for him though. There would be a pick attached to Cespedes as well, or am I missing something? Link
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2014 20:54:19 GMT -5
Come on man, local writers are almost always biased towards home town kids. And accusing somebody from a national service of bias based on the ranking of one player 6th who happened to be the league pitcher of the year is rather flimsy logic. It's called trolling. Disagreeing with the ranking and giving reasoning is far more appropriate. You're the one who responded with "LOL" to Chris simply noting the guy was from NJ, so I'm not sure it's fair for you to subsequently call out jimed for lack of reasoning. Definitely not what I consider to be trolling. I just don't think it's a ridiculous thing to at least consider -- the ranking is highly questionable, and I would think the majority of posters on here would agree. The guy literally couldn't throw the ball past a major league hitter or keep the ball in the yard, and while I'm sure fatigue was partially responsible for that, his shiny ERA was way better than his peripheral stats in AAA (and AA, to a lesser degree).
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2014 20:41:52 GMT -5
Are we prepared to give sandavol a nine figure contract? I can't speak for everyone, but I'm certainly not. Absolutely not. I'm a fan of Pablo and all, but giving him $100+ million has the potential to be one of the worst contracts of all time. He's a surprisingly adept fielder right now, but he very well could be a 100 wRC+ 1B/DH in three years.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2014 18:34:10 GMT -5
That's not what I was doing, except to gauge the trade value of Cespedes. There are a lot of mentions of trading him for a #2 and don't think it's realistic, especially for a full season. That comment wasn't aimed at you-- several posters followed up by diving back into the Lester trade. But I do think the idea of swapping Cespedes (and another minor piece or two to compensate for the fact that you can't offer him a QO) for a guy like Latos seems perfectly reasonable. Oakland likely didn't see Lester as a #2 when they traded for him, and teams pay a premium for trade deadline additions, so your analogy isn't necessarily applicable. A year of Cespedes should be able to fetch a year of a comparably-talented pitcher, which is probably a number two or a high-end number three. One of the Reds guys would fit, or maybe a three-way deal for Scott Kazmir or Kris Medlen or Ian Kennedy. This. You have to understand the great amount of value a contending team places on the acquisition of an ace-like pitcher at the trading deadline. That is, you can't reduce such a trade to "they traded for only X amount of starts from him." As for Cespedes, I agree that he easily can be the foundation of a deal for a solid #2/#3 pitcher. Where as players like Nava are going to have their skill sets undervalued out on the trade market, Cespedes is the exact opposite. A power starved team is going to crave the addition of his bat in the middle of their order, rather than viewing him as a sketchy defensive left fielder with a good chance of failing to eclipse an .800 OPS.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 22:23:53 GMT -5
I do recall seeing Brentz come up throwing on one play in September for the Red Sox, and he didn't unleash the rocket I'd expected to see. Still, I saw him make several very strong throws throughout the 2014 season in Pawtucket that make it hard for me to believe he has anything less than a 60 arm.
Nothing like scrolling down the FanGraphs comments and spotting none other than Eric M. Van campaigning for Steven Wright!
Also, sharing this 100% troll comment, because that second sentence is just too epic:
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 14:07:33 GMT -5
The third base coach can't fix everything. Judging potentially-caught line drives, etc.-- these are all risks you take by putting in a player with little experience. Maybe Morse is a bad enough baserunner that you still do it, but I'm just suggesting that it's not a totally clear-cut decision and that there are risks involved. Sure, it wouldn't be a guaranteed success. But it was a critical run -- one that, with Morse, you have a 0% chance of scoring, where as it's way above 50% with most other MLB players.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 13:50:33 GMT -5
With Lincecum, the issue is less injury risk and more inexperience. He's likely had little experience judging whether he could score from second on a single, and that's a vitally important skill you want that runner to have. Speed isn't everything in that situation. Eh. Morse isn't a slow-ish but smart baserunner like Jonny Gomes. We're talking about a guy who can barely move to begin with, is less than 100% health-wise, and has typically been a poor all-around baserunner for his entire career. Put in Lincecum, who has at least some experience (he's scored 26 runs in his career), and let the third base coach advise him.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 13:35:44 GMT -5
Four posts and no mention of them using video we posted, eh? Killing me, you guys... Hadn't even realized that McDaniel was with FG now. Excellent. And I actually have no issue at all with his list. There are a few guys who I think are a smidge high or low, but I can imagine where he's coming from on all of them. Only exception is that I share iakovos's surprise about Acosta. I wasn't of the understanding that Espinoza was THAT far ahead of him, although Espinoza was definitely ahead by a little bit. I mean, by giving all those guys the same projections, he's essentially saying the order is fungible to some degree, which I agree with. Was there anything that stood out to you, Matt? Yeah, it's great to have Kiley over there now. Tons of free, substantive content. Prospects coverage was a major shortcoming at FG before his arrival, IMO. He overhauled everything (not that there was too much to uproot). Not any major quibbles. A few comments: - Love the aggressive placement of Rodriguez -- I'm extremely excited about him, and believe he very well could emerge in 2015 as a step above Owens. - Agree that both Barnes and Kopech ahead of Ranaudo is the right call. Eight games of rookie ball and all for Kopech, but it's not even that close for me. Ranaudo at best is a decent number 4 type. - I'm a Cecchini fan, believing he's a capable option to trot out in 2015, but Johnson and Chavis need to be in front of him at this point. Regardless, nice to hear someone reinforce his ability to stick at third, and not fret over the AAA power display. - Really, the main thing that stuck out to me was that there was zero mention of Alex Hassan. I'm significantly higher on him than Brentz, as I feel his plate approach (and ability to play a little first base) will help him be a much more effective part time player. Brentz is an eh LF who may slug .500 against lefties, but will throw up a (sub?) .300 OBP if he gets any decent amount of time against righties. As for the Brentz arm comment, that's extremely off base. The guy throws missiles. - He notes that Longhi barely missed, yet Travis cracks the top 15 and Shaw is at 22? I think there's a case to be made for Longhi ranking right there with them - I feel like I could rank them within any order depending on the day, all in the 18-22 area, certainly ahead of the likes of Brentz, Ramos, Britton, and even Stank. Definitely going to give this a closer read when I'm home from work. Didn't click any videos, so don't think I obliviously watched and glossed by passed having some SP one's in there!
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 12:59:35 GMT -5
Wendy Thurm on Twitter suggested the idea of PR'ing Lincecum, who absolutely is faster Morse. Remember when Buchholz got hurt (or nearly got hurt? I forget) pinch running? Now imagine that happens with your team's ace in an ALCS. No manager has the stones to do that, even if it is the right move. Hell, I don't think Belichick would do that. Maybe a little different in the NL, where Bumgarner would at least have comfort running the bases, but still, if anything goes wrong, holy hell. Absolutely wouldn't use Bumgarner. Lincecum, though - why not? He's a 30-year-old coming off a 4.74 ERA season, has plenty of baserunning experience, and is serving as a long reliever. Re: that Buchholz pinch-running appearance, he completely screwed up reading the play and ended up cutting his hand and being tagged out.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 11:18:48 GMT -5
1-Castillo CF 2-Pedroia 2B 3-Cespedes RF 4-Ortiz DH 5-Napoli 1B 6-Bogearts SS 7-Russell Martin C 8-Victorino or Craig LF 9-Betts 3B UT Holt OF-1B Nava C Vazquez Pretty good line-up!!! Sign Russell Martin. He has been playing in the majors for 9 years...help his team make the playoffs 7 times. Pitchers loves him. Has best CS rate in MLB, best blocker and top 3 in framing...and hits too...with some pop!! What else do we want. We could use Swihart in a package in a big trade for a top SP. Martin seems hardly necessary to me. Is that a good place to allocate our resources when our needs are clearly on the pitching side? Martin, before his 2014 season where he posted a BABIP 50 points higher than he has in any of the five previous seasons, was a .702 OPS guy (92 OPS+). He turns 32 before the 2015 season, plays the most demanding position, and already has injury concerns. We have a young, elite defensive catcher with more offensive upside than people give him credit already on the major league squad, and the number one prospect in our system is a highly promising catcher in AAA.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 11:12:05 GMT -5
Earlier in the game, the Giants PH Morse who got an infield single. He then had to hold at third base on a slow ground ball into RF that 90% of MLB players score on. Can't really fault Bochy for not wanting to burn 2 players that early on, but it turned out to be quite a significant run.
The only move I can come up with is Bumgarner, PR for Morse.
Perhaps a few reasons why that wasn't happening and I have no idea if Bumgarner is an upgrade. Machi was the pitcher than came into Morse's lineup spot.
Wendy Thurm on Twitter suggested the idea of PR'ing Lincecum, who absolutely is faster Morse.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 14, 2014 10:52:13 GMT -5
Very thorough look at the Red Sox organization from Kiley McDaniel and his new crew at Fangraphs: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-boston-red-sox/Lots of tool rankings, projection, and video. Here's the list, but the real value comes from the info provided for each of them: 50+ FV Prospects:1) Swihart, C 2) Rodriguez, LHP 3) Henry Owens, LHP 4) Rusney Castillo, CF 5) Manuel Margot, CF 6) Rafael Devers, 3B 7) Garin Cecchini, 3B 8) Brian Johnson, LHP 45 FV Prospects:9) Matt Barnes, RHP 10) Deven Marrero, SS 11) Michael Chavis, 3B 12) Michael Kopech, RHP 13) Anthony Ranaudo, RHP 14) Trey Ball, LHP 15) Sam Travis, 1B 16) Sean Coyle, 3B 17) Wendell Rijo, 2B 18) Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP 40 FV Prospects:19) Javier Guerra, SS 20) Anderson Espinoza, RHP 21) Bryce Brentz, LF 22) Travis Shaw, 1B 23) Henry Ramos, RF 24) Edwin Escobar, LHP 25) Drake Britton, LHP 26) Cody Kukuk, LHP 27) Simon Mercedes, RHP 28) Heath Hembree, RHP 29) Jason Garcia, RHP 30) Luis Diaz, RHP 31) Carlos Asuaje, 2B Special look: Reed Gragnani, 2B Plus additional notes on a whole lot more. He also provides a quick list of MLB growth assets ineligible for the main list: Big League Growth Assets1. Mookie Betts, 2B/CF, Age 22 2. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Age 22 3. Christian Vazquez, C, Age 24 4 .Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, Age 24 5. Allen Webster, RHP, Age 24 6. Rubby De La Rosa, RHP, Age 25 Figure there may be some surprise/discussion to be had with the ordering of the lower half of that list.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 13, 2014 10:54:10 GMT -5
If I signed hanley I would put him in LF or RF if he could handle it. He's got the bat for them and he'd get hurt too often at 3B not town tino his defense wasn't great there. You think he would actually go for that? Not a chance Not to mention why would the team do that, either? His offense could easily grade out close to average for a corner outfielder, and his defense could potentially [continue to] be horrendous. Castillo, Betts, and YC or Nava/RHH all could very well out-WAR Hanley playing the outfield.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 13, 2014 10:00:16 GMT -5
Curious if anyone thinks Hanley could be in line for a one year pillow contract or he will sign a 4+ year deal. He's hit RHP pretty good the last few years and if only costs us a 2nd/Oakland pick and it gives us another year to evaluate Cechini/Xander and probably nets us a pick the next June I'd be for a pillow deal. No way he takes a short-term deal. The guy is turning 31 in two months, barely clinging to a premium position he already doesn't play well at all, and is extremely fragile. Despite the QO he'll surely decline (how big a pillow contract would he get anyway? No team is going to forfeit their pick and give Hanley 1 year at $20 million), this will his last chance to get a big time deal ($75+ mil) that some team will foolishly offer him.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 13, 2014 9:52:15 GMT -5
Mike Moustakas was a prime buy low candidate. Too bad the post-season happened and we'll have another year enduring WMB contact lenses. Remember the WMB/Moose change of scenery swap that some people suggested a few months back? I'd have done it in a heartbeat. There is absolutely no way the Red Sox can go into 2015 counting on WMB as anything more than a platoon bat. ---- Quite a game last night. Rosenthal had zero idea where his pitches were going, and the loss of Molina cost several potential strike calls on the pitches he actually got near the zone. Earlier in the game, the Giants PH Morse who got an infield single. He then had to hold at third base on a slow ground ball into RF that 90% of MLB players score on. Can't really fault Bochy for not wanting to burn 2 players that early on, but it turned out to be quite a significant run.]
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 12, 2014 20:51:04 GMT -5
I really doubt cherrington moves mookie, Castillo or cespedes to third next season Internal candidates include bogaerts, checchini and holt. I think the sox view bogaerts as a short stop and holt as a super utility guy. Checchini needs more at bats at Pawtucket. The sox gave been rumored to like the guy in Seattle and Seattle has been rumored to want cespedes. Another rumor is Oakland would be willing to move Donaldson. Would they want cespedes back? Who wouldn't like Kyle Seager? He's a 5 WAR, above average left-handed hitter with plus defense who won't reach free agency until 2018. You're going to need to give them substantially more than one year of a powerful left fielder. Similar to the Donaldson trade proposals, you'll be moving a couple highly valuable assets, as they aren't the type of packages that can be built around Cespedes. Agree that none of Betts, Castillo, and YC will be going to third base. I would have loved to have seen Mookie at least play some harmless games there in September (preferably at SS, actually), but at this point, it's basically out of the question. The team cannot possibly pencil in Holt as the starter, and I'd be truly shocked if the team decided to move Bogaerts to the hot corner again anytime before 2016. The struggle is figuring out how to balance the short term plug-in against the desire to immediate grab a solid option in Headley or Sandoval. If you sign those guys to $60 million or more deals, you clearly improve the 2015 but run the risk of running out a .700 OPS hitter (especially Headley) or declining defender (mostly Sandoval, although he's surprisingly solid right now) when there's a chance Cecchini could step forward as a servicable defender with a superior bat (to Headley at least), or Marrero could emerge as the starting SS in two years with Bogey's bat developing and shifting to third. There's just a very real chance that being tied up with Headley or Panda in 2017 and 2018 will be a detriment to the team. That said, if Headley can be snagged for only three seasons -- which would be rather difficult -- I'd go for that. Bogey's mediocre-to-bad defense makes me want to prioritize a plus glove on the left side. Valbuena is not just some low-ceiling caretaker type. Not only do I think he has a better median projection than Cecchini, but I honestly think he also has more upside, at least for 2015. It's not like Valbuena came out of nowhere-- we're talking about a player who has a career .304/.385/.476 AAA line here (in 1021 PAs), and as I mentioned above, his peripherals have been excellent over the last few years. He was a three win player last year even though his defensive stats were negative at 3B for the first time in his career. If he hits just as well as he did this year while returning to his career +10 UZR/+5 DRS, he's a four win player and a borderline All-Star. This is growing on me, under the assumption that he can be landed for a rather reasonable package and that we'd have a bench option to play over him against lefties. Cheap, being squeezed out of Chicago's future, some positional flexibility, and a very underrated hitter against right handers.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 1, 2014 22:48:40 GMT -5
Why could not butler back up Vazquez? He could, but you run a risk of getting 70-80 wRC+ production from the position. I do think Vazquez will be better than that, and while he's perfectly viable regardless due to the outstanding defense, we could really benefit from having a decent left handed option. Butler, also a RHH, is worse both offensively and defensively, so it's worth exploring acquiring someone more useful, so long as they don't cost too much, considering it'll only be a short-term "need."
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 1, 2014 10:57:49 GMT -5
So, how do we snag Donaldson (FA in 2019) and Shark (after 2015) without giving up Mookie, Swihart, or Bogey? Owens, YC, Cecchini/Chavis, and Johnson/Barnes?
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 27, 2014 21:30:23 GMT -5
Does anyone think Hanley might take a 1 year deal like Beltre? With his injury history and inconsistency, plus the fact that he'd still be just 32 after the season, a year in Fenway could help him get one last big contract like Beltre did. It would also give the Sox another year to see if Cecchini, Marerro or even Coyle could be ready to help at SS/3B. Terrible waste of money. Hanley has not turned out to be the superstar that he seemed to be becoming when he was younger. Also, he doesn't fit this team. Next year's team is going to be young with just a few - very few, but very select - veterans. He would screw up the chemistry much the way Drew and that catcher whose name shall not be spoken did this year. Just a minor quibble -- Drew didn't hurt the chemistry, he was just terrible performance-wise, and his signing forced Xander to move off his primary position. The players loved him.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 25, 2014 11:25:55 GMT -5
Read this just a few minutes ago. Fantastic indeed, with some funny interjections from Adam Dunn. ---- Interesting exchange last night in the White Sox/Tigers game: m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v36567853/Of course it's Ian Kinsler mocking Sale with the binoculars when he gets a hit later on.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 24, 2014 10:48:33 GMT -5
If we could get Strasburg, I would pack Betts' bags for him I wouldn't. He's only two seasons away from free agency and has already had TJS. Yup. Where as Mookie isn't a FA until 2020 and seems poised to be a highly effective leadoff hitter and flexible defender. There are plenty of pitching options to explore this offseason, both in free agency and the trade market. Who is going to replace Betts at the top of our lineup next season? Castillo? Please. Strasburg has been worth 3.2 bWAR/4.1 fWAR this season. Betts is at 2.0/1.5 while playing in just under 30% of MLB season. Strasburg is an absolutely fantastic pitcher and all, but Mookie is quite special in his own way, and I can't overstate enough how excited I am to have him for six cost-controlled years.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 23, 2014 20:35:50 GMT -5
OK, Cespedes' fear of walls is a real problem.
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Post by mattpicard on Sept 23, 2014 5:38:20 GMT -5
You've posted this three times now. Please do not post it again. No one answer me about what Jim Bowden said,so I won't stop posting it until someone don't ignore my questions!!!!! That's because, like you, most of us do not have ESPN Insider access. If someone with a subscription makes their way into this thread, maybe they'll see your string of posts and help you out. Seriously, do not ask again. This is your final warning.
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