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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 17, 2024 21:35:21 GMT -5
My extremely educated and informed take is that Marcelo Mayer looks too cool playing baseball to not pan out as a baseball player. MLB teams, I am available for hire.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 17, 2024 10:55:42 GMT -5
I wouldn't rely on 98.5 for MLB draft intel. I'm no expert, but that's a crazy top 5 I’m just spitballing here not having read the article or whatever but I think that’s a top 5 at pick 12, not a top 5 overall. Still a bit of a stretch, but makes more sense in that lens.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 15, 2024 13:27:38 GMT -5
Maybe it's just because as a non East Coaster I don't hate the Yankees as much as most of y'all do, but this board's collective obsession with Jones has always been weird to me. I think he's overrated for sure, but the appeal is also pretty obvious - when he hits ball, ball go fast and far. If you want to cherrypick stuff about 2023 whiff rates and standard deviations or whatever, more power to you, but pretending like there's not quite a lot to dream on with his package of tools is pretty intellectually dishonest. And again I don't think he should be the 15th overall prospect, but I also don't think the reason these outlets are ranking him that highly is because he's a Yankee or anything, that's just dumb tin foil hat stuff.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 15, 2024 12:36:50 GMT -5
I'd bet good money the first three picks this year are all pitchers to balance out the system. Breslow only sought pitchers in trades and I'd be shocked if he went away from this approach with his early draft picks this season. The perfect 1st round pick is one of the T4 college pitchers because they should be close to MLB ready within a year after Teel, Anthony and Meyer make their debut. If none of the T4 college pitchers are available, I can see them pivoting to an under slot college arm and drafting an over slot prep arm in the 2nd and 3rd I think that would be a losing bet, it would be a really bad idea IMO for the Sox to pigeonhole themselves into saying we're taking pitchers with our top 3 picks under any circumstances. I could see it happening if the board falls a certain way but it would be a poor idea for the org to force it and I have no reason to think that Breslow and Co. would operate this way. I'm also not sure I'd agree the system is all that unbalanced anymore, anyways. 4 of the top 10,13 of the top 30, and 31 of the top 60 are pitchers, so it's definitely a little hitter-oriented, but not extremely so. Also, when the Big Three inevitably graduate in the next year or so, you could make an argument the orientation tilts a little in the other direction. The headliners of the system are all hitters to be sure, but I don't think that's something you make such a narrow-minded decision on in terms of drafting.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 14, 2024 19:47:54 GMT -5
I’m against drafting Cam Smith. A 17.8% K% translates to mid 20s in pro ball and a .268 ISO at Florida State is nothing special at all. I have a hard time seeing his bat being good enough for 3B. Hes having a great year but his BABIP is out of control and he’s simply not the power hitter he’s made out to be in game. That feels like a whole hell of a lot of projection with very minimal information.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 12, 2024 11:02:37 GMT -5
I took a ride up to Orono yesterday to get eyes on U Maine 1st baseman Jeremiah Jenkins. He is a junior who I've seen ranked in the 350-400 range of this year prospects. He has back to back 20 hr seasons. He did not hit any dingers yesterday but did hit two laser shots to right center for a single and double. No exit velocity available. I talked to a long time fan who has been watching regularly since 79 and he says he has never seen a U Maine player hit the ball as hard, as consistently, as Jenkins does. Of course that does not carry the same weight as as a southern conference team, but we have had a few good pros go through the program including Mark Sweeney, Mike Bordick and recently Jeremy Pena. This guy explicitly said that Jenkins is a better hitter than Sweeney was. So, like his former team mate Quinn McDaniel last year (drafted by Giants), along with watching the Sox selections, I'll be watching for where Jenkins goes this year. Maybe even to the Sox in the 5-10 round range. That would be fun ! I’ve said this a couple times now but while you obviously don’t draft just for need, if you look at some of the guys playing first in the low minors these days I think it makes a lot of sense to target a guy like this in the middle rounds to get a guy that actually knows the position if nothing else.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 10, 2024 18:13:59 GMT -5
I know not a popular guy here but that swing fix for Vance Honeycutt over that roughly last 20 game stretch is really looking like the guy folks thought was a possible 1-1 guy. 2-2 tonight with 2hrs. One to right and a laser to left. Probably not our guy but trending up in his play. Only player in ACC history with over 50 hrs and 70sb Here’s the thing - if teams believe the swing change is legit, it seems like there’d be no chance he falls to 12. If he does fall to 12, it likely tells you teams aren’t buying it. Because yeah if he has even a 50 hit tool you can make a real case he’s 1-1 in this class.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2024 23:14:31 GMT -5
Jojo Ingrassia: 3IP 0H 0ER 1BB 8K (44 pitches, 31 strikes, 15 whiffs) Still only 21, super young for a relief-only college draftee
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2024 14:36:20 GMT -5
Counterpoint though.....if you're a good enough baseball player to win ROY, aren't you good enough to want to manipulate service time (add gain extra team control)? Well, I think we all (including me) forget that if a guy wins ROY or comes in second, he gets the full year of service time. That's the key thing to guard against manipulation of any player. The pick incentive is extra incentive for top guys. Given how hard it is to win ROY (or finish high enough in MVP voting), a team might be inclined to take its chances on a top guy not winning. Another thing that I think is also worth considering is that the service time considerations are not limited to the year in which that prospect is playing as a rookie, it's what the market for that player will look like at the end of their arb years. Manipulating service time with a guy like Mason Miller probably isn't going to be that worthwhile, you're not going to look to sign him to a megadeal for big years or big money. Same with a guy like Abreu, to a certain extent. But a prospect like, say, Jackson Holliday, who is in theory looking at a massive payday down the road, you're more incentivized to maximize savings wherever you can. Long story short I think the system is perfectly fine as is.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2024 13:30:46 GMT -5
Limiting it just the top prospects makes sense in that it's meant to protect them, but it honestly seems unnecessary. What's the harm in extending that same type of protection to all prospects, especially given that the top prospects are obviously the most likely to actually achieve the targets to actually trigger the rewards? Well I think the incentive exists because top prospects are much more likely to be victims of service time manipulation. A good, pertinent example of this would be that there was a pretty solid amount of discussion this past offseason on this board of what to do with Rafaela and the Opening Day roster from a service time perspective, whereas I don't think many of us, if any, were particular concerned about the service time implications of Abreu's arrival to the team. I think, to directly answer your question, "the harm" in extending it to all prospects is it completely misrepresents the point of the incentive.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2024 11:17:25 GMT -5
Nice to see that Monegro's injury didn't derail him for too long, hoping to see some really good strides from him this year. Also, it didn't 100% register with me that there are two guys in the system with the last name Asencio, so I thought they were pushing Vladimir real aggressively and it just went unnoticed lol To be clear, he wasn't injured. It wasn't clear if he was technically on the IL or dev list (I could've sworn I saw the former but he was clearly on the latter when he got sent to the FCL this morning), but he didn't come into camp as strong as they'd have liked shoulder-wise. Ah gotcha thanks for the clarification
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 9, 2024 10:59:23 GMT -5
Nice to see that Monegro's injury didn't derail him for too long, hoping to see some really good strides from him this year. Also, it didn't 100% register with me that there are two guys in the system with the last name Asencio, so I thought they were pushing Vladimir real aggressively and it just went unnoticed lol
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 8, 2024 15:21:43 GMT -5
Who jumped into the top 11 to make Wetherholt fall? James Tibbs and Caminiti. The rationale is McDaniel says there is a hot rumor that either the Angels or Pirates might take Tibbs on an underslot deal. Also there are a group of teams near 10 that are taking a long look at Caminiti if the college bats don't fall to their liking. I'd also be very down with Tibbs underslot, if it came to that.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 8, 2024 11:33:59 GMT -5
I guess you could say his Red Sox tenure was… brief
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 7, 2024 10:12:11 GMT -5
Did Starlyn Nunez get hurt after game 1?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 23:30:53 GMT -5
Nice to see the Salem big 3 (Zanatello, Bleis, Danny Kirwin) have good outings.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 23:26:17 GMT -5
How do we feel about the term “lifter” I’m on the fence
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 11:36:02 GMT -5
Hamstring injuries come while you're running full speed. It looked like this injury happened when Johanfran was trying to stop. I'm afraid it has to be an acl or mcl. I hope I'm wrong. He really was having a great year. It was a heartbreaking video. It looked to me at the very least knee related not hammy from the way he went down. Looked like ACL but generally ACL is pretty quick diagnosis and it's been a couple days so there's maybe a tiny reason for hope but if I were a betting man I'd still guess ACL. it’s a pretty quick diagnosis at the big league level for sure but probably a little harder to get the proper imaging there. Not saying it’s guaranteed ACL but just saying it’s reasonable for it to be a little slower coming out.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 11:13:38 GMT -5
He's acting like Bloom, but the results have been much better. Let's see if he can pull another rabbit out of a hat. This is kinda crazy. Rebuilding the roster one month into the season with cast-offs and guys he's buying for cash as you are playing above expectations. Maybe he does have a great eye for talent. 1) How is he "acting like Bloom" exactly? 2) I don't know that he's "rebuilding the roster," is he? They acquired 3 guys, none of which they probably bother with if Casas and Story don't suffer long-term injuries (maybe get get one to replace Dalbec, whose spot on the roster has always been tenuous). The other is a guy getting healthy. It's all about the injuries. It feels like some people have become so AJ Preller-pilled that they view any move that isn't a huge signing or splash trade as a Moneyball-level type of intricacy when in reality it's most of the day-to-day of the job
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 11:11:38 GMT -5
Seems like we're in a slow week for minor league baseball, in that we're spending so much time on one Keith Law chat snippet. Seems like a positive comment, honestly: Mayer lost some luster due to injuries last year but is still a legit top ten prospect and he's performing well now that he's healthy. Developmentally, he has work to do, specifically with respect to breaking balls. That's not a negative take in the least. Lots of folks here just freak out anytime Law doesn't gush over the Sox
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 3, 2024 7:50:38 GMT -5
Are there other recent scouting reports discussing his problems hitting sliders. I have not personally seen him, but I’m not going to freak out over a random Keith Law report. Ian just mentioned it on the last podcast and that’s been the common refrain on him for a while, certainly not isolated to just that Law article.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 2, 2024 19:52:15 GMT -5
I’d prefer Honeycutt, though both are in the lower end of my preferred outcomes. What I will note is that this article points out what I think will be a more common theme which is that there is a relatively defined top 11. On one hand this is bad news because the Red Sox are picking 12th, on the other hand the MLB Draft gets wonky so there’s a decent chance at least one of those guys (likely Yesavage or one of the high schoolers IMO) falls to the pick.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 2, 2024 11:17:13 GMT -5
Jordan is chasing at a 42% clip. That's higher than Rafaela last year. 87% contact rate in-zone is behind only Gasper and, unsurprisingly, Meidroth for minor leaguers with 40+ PA. He's not the antithesis of Rafaela... he's kind of similar. I think they probably meant the antithesis of the specific iteration of Rafaela that was told to take pitches for the sake of taking pitches (though I don’t agree with the comparison)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 1, 2024 14:33:47 GMT -5
my fav under-the-radar story of the season so far is Simas seemingly being on the Worcester roster on an emergency basis and producing results Higher OPS his first few games in AAA than his senior season in high school
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 1, 2024 12:39:47 GMT -5
At least they are doing something. They are not sticking with Kiki for months after it was apparent he couldn't handle being an everyday shortstop in the bigs. Casis gets hurt and they bring in a replacement. No way they can be responsible for the replacement getting hurt too. Reyes and Hamilton aren't cutting it at short after Story gets hurt, and Rafaela gets a shot. Now this guy gets a shot to be his backup. It may not work, but at least they are trying something to fix obvious problems.
Assume Hamilton will go down when the new guy arrives. Fix is a generous way to frame it. I'd say this move is adding more duct tape to the problem. That’s called fixing lol fixes can be temporary
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