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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 15:20:21 GMT -5
After watching plenty of him in the field last year, I’m not so sure he’s a SS right NOW. Jeter was barely a short stop for the 2nd half of his career and wasn't even the best one on his team. Its a pride thing with him. His bat will play there for another few years and eventually once he gets paid he's going to be more than willing to move. Boras has him looking at how much shortstops are getting on the open market and if you look at the batshit deal Seager got why would you want to move positions in your FA year? Worked for Semien.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 15:19:56 GMT -5
This is circular reasoning; you provide no reason for them to stay under the limit except that they will have to go over the limit to sign Xander and Devers so they won't go over the limit. Your own evidence shows that it will hard to have a team without going over the limit. Focus on right now, and tell me if there is any motivation not to spend $235M this year. Other than trying to spend under the tax there is no reason. I'm just telling you what I think will happen and this team under Bloom supports what I'm saying. They let Erod go for pennies on the dollar and replaced him with two guys who might equal him. They got rid of Renfroe for JBJ because he came with two solid prospects. You can't look at that trade and claim it makes them better for this year. The objective was to get prospects. Like I said Blooms real team he wants to build is 2-3 years away. If the team makes the ALCS again or the World Series thats great but there's not really that urgency to go for it if it means risking the future. I think its more likely and realistic for Bloom to trade Xander at the deadline if they're. 500 for prospects and trade Devers in the offseason rather than pay them. Same with JD Eovaldi and Kiké. The reason is flexibility and sustainability of this club. More likely than not the next great Sox team has Nick Yorke and Marcelo Meyer and not Devers or Xander. I'd love for them to go over the number but I think Bloom has a plan and is sticking with it. Im also not saying he won't sign free agents but I'm saying he won't give up flexibility and sign an elite guy in a spot where they might have a blue chip prospect coming up. So there is zero chance Freeman or Correa is walking through that door. Still not seeing any evidence they are not willing to go over the limit this year. They are at 209 or so. The JBJ trade increased the payroll and created a hole that might take $20M to fill. The cheapskate move was to keep Renfroe. They did not take the cheapskate move. You are just basically saying “I think they will not go over because I think they will not go over, even though they have no reason not to.”
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 14:11:57 GMT -5
With all the money coming off the payroll next year, what is their motivation for staying below the luxury tax threshold? And since theyâre already at about 209, why do you think they will be at 180-210? Have to extend Devers and Xander at Market Rate. You also have to fill the holes left by Eovaldi JD Vazquez and maybe Kiké. Kiké if kept is getting a big raise. Those three right there plus the replacements for Eovaldi Wacha and Hill make it tough to get under that range. Which is why ultimately I don't think Bloom keeps both Devers and Xander. He'll look at guys like Yorke and Mayer and see that they can afford to go 2 years with infielders while they develop. No point in going 5 or 6 years if you're going to continue to maintain "flexibility". I feel like the team Bloom is trying to build is really 2-3 years away. So would he rather take a Villar type player at 8 million for 1 year or Xander at 300 million? Devers at 300 million or someone who will only cost 10 million over 1 year. He's maintained the word flexibility since taking the job. 230 million dollar payroll would fly in the face of that. This is circular reasoning; you provide no reason for them to stay under the limit except that they will have to go over the limit to sign Xander and Devers so they won't go over the limit. Your own evidence shows that it will hard to have a team without going over the limit. Focus on right now, and tell me if there is any motivation not to spend $235M this year.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 12:01:59 GMT -5
So you discount Heyman saying on WFAN that the Sox offered over 100M for Trevor Story to play 2b, and you think that all the stories saying they are interested in Schwarber and Suzuki (whose prices tags could be 5/70) and maybe even Freeman are just Bloom hoping all these guys will accept 2/14? àAnd that they are feigning interest in Xander and Raffy, and Bloom wants the payroll to be $120M out of a general commitment to being thrifty? Trevor Story being offered 100 million in this market is a low ball offer depending on years. They have interest in Schwarber but Bloom also made it clear that he's prioritizing a right handed bat. Suzuki is a RIght handed bat but he's also going to a west coast club unless the Sox overbid which they won't do. Do I think they will go to 120? No thats crazy. But I don't think this team will exceed the luxury tax anytime soon. We're probably looking at the team staying between 180-210 yearly. But if you have Devers and Xander coming up combined with a couple of the other deals you have it makes it impossible to stay in that range without one going. Not to mention Kiké, Vazquez and others will be due for new deals at the end of the year. The only way this is actually possible is if the team says bye to Kiké JD Eovaldi and probably Vazquez. I do not think there is any chance they're in on Freeman. Way too much money at 1st when they have Casas coming up soon. Not a Bloom move. Dalbec is the guy there until Casas is ready. Has power and is cheap. Dalbec also hits right handed. With all the money coming off the payroll next year, what is their motivation for staying below the luxury tax threshold? And since they’re already at about 209, why do you think they will be at 180-210?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 10:23:17 GMT -5
They've really shown no indication that they want to spend on anyone under Bloom. Its all short term deals, which is good for flexibility but they're eventually going to have to go long term with someone. Devers or Xander or both at the very least. Losing Mookie and those two under Bloom would be devastating. Mookies contract doesn't look like its going to age well. However the return has been horrible so far with Verdugo and Downs regressing. I hope Devers and Xander stays in Boston. This is not an organization that should start acting like Tampa and trading players before they go to market. So you discount Heyman saying on WFAN that the Sox offered over 100M for Trevor Story to play 2b, and you think that all the stories saying they are interested in Schwarber and Suzuki (whose prices tags could be 5/70) and maybe even Freeman are just Bloom hoping all these guys will accept 2/14? And that they are feigning interest in Xander and Raffy, and Bloom wants the payroll to be $120M out of a general commitment to being thrifty?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 9:21:06 GMT -5
All those crying about selfishness can dry their tears now. Also, how hard would it be to pay a pharmacist to just inject you with a placebo and say you’re vaccinated? It’s not like there’s a stringent audit. Also when the vax card is only a piece of non-laminated paper without a barcode even, it just seems like it’s all theatrics at this point… Yeah, an athlete could just tell reporters he'd been "immunized" and that surely would never come back to bite him on the butt, right? And why wouldn't a pharmacist want to risk his license and livelihood for a few bucks?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 8:54:03 GMT -5
FYI: Jen McCaffrey @jcmccaffrey 20m Xander Bogaerts said he’s now vaccinated. Sean McAdam @sean_McAdam · 8m Christian Arroyo has also been vaxxed. Did so during the lockout. “It was the right thing.”
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 8:50:59 GMT -5
FYI:
Jen McCaffrey @jcmccaffrey 20m Xander Bogaerts said he’s now vaccinated.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 20:15:53 GMT -5
Don’t see terms here, but this looks like a safe bet on a 1 year deal. 27HR’s last year. Still walks a lot. Really good player. But defense has declined precipitously. He's now what the last 5 years of Mookie's contract will look like, right? 1 MVP and three more top 5 finishes ages 25-28, then never an all-star again.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 20:11:09 GMT -5
Interesting:
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 15:40:16 GMT -5
I wonder if they could get Conforto on 1-year bounce back deal. Looking at the OF depth chart makes me want to cry. I’d actually be happy just resigning Schwarber for LF. Schwarber, Kiké, Verdugo is bearable. Schwarber brings them closer to the all important luxury tax. Doesn't seem like they have any interest in exceeding it right now. There is zero evidence they are worried about the first luxury tax limit.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 15:39:13 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 14:13:33 GMT -5
It’s not just money. Assuming the dollars are pretty similar, many of the Asian players prefer to stick on the West Coast if they can. Easy direct flight home from LAX or SF that way. That’s why Ohtani didn’t end up on the Yankees. The flight from Boston to Tokyo is only two hours longer than the flight from San Diego.
Guess no one told him about azimuths. "only two hours longer" is quite a statement.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 13:32:56 GMT -5
I guess Freddie Freeman to the Dodgers is happening. For Shea Langeliers, Christian Pache, Ryan Cusick and Joey Estes. A huge haul. Braves prospects 1, 2, 6 and 14 on this list: www.mlb.com/prospects/braves
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 13:26:14 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 9:15:03 GMT -5
Why is it looking increasingly unlikely Suzuki signs here? What am I missing? It seems like he's going to do the tour of teams before signing.I mean, at this point, I'm not counting on him to sign with the Red Sox, but I haven't seen anything that says the Sox are out, so maybe I'm missing something? Looking at the ten-day Boston forecast, I'm happy to see it's warming up a little. Friday will have a high of 67. Thursday of course is a kind of local holiday.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 9:07:39 GMT -5
If Barnes was a free agent not on the Red Sox, I bet all of us would want to sign him to close. If nobody watched him post-all-star break, I'd agree, but seeing that and how they didn't even want to put him on the post-season roster, I would think if we're paying attention to other teams and Barnes was going through it with some other team, some of us might see that as a red flag. I mean, I watch the post-season so I would have noticed if a team wasn't using its closer and find out the reason why. I think it's silly not to think that Barnes is risky as far as being a closer goes and that it wouldn't be a good idea to have a viable backup plan, which I hope Whitlock is not part of, as I'd rather see him get an opportunity to start, something they really need because they let E-Rod go. I think it is plausible to claim that the Red Sox seem to be fond of acquiring guys who performed poorly in part of the previous season, who they think are better than that. So I think they might well have acquired Batt Marnes from the Cubs if he had had both good and bad stretches last year.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 9:04:25 GMT -5
Bloom press conference: Our flexibility (in having a guy who can play cf or 2b) means that in adding a position player we are not limited to IN or OF.
Red Sox Stats @redsoxstats Bloom says Paxton on track for the second half of the season. Vague timetables on Mata and Ward returning are sooner than Paxton. No calendars mapped out for them yet.
Alex Speier @alexspeier While Chaim Bloom says the Red Sox are looking for a RH bat, he says that does "not necessarily" rule out a pursuit of Kyle Schwarber. He suggests the roster is flexible enough that the team doesn't need to limit itself in terms of where it looks to add talent.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 8:39:45 GMT -5
Are we going to get any high or even medium profile free agents? We just reset the luxury cap and this is the last year with Price’s money on the books. I’m very confused what we’re doing. I think we're trying to avoid having the future equivalent of "Price's money on the books."
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 14, 2022 6:43:02 GMT -5
Suzuki getting ready to make a decision soon, too. I don't think it's the Sox for either player. So not a great off-season if that's the case. Blue Jays just filled out their rotation. Yankees just improved a bit. The Rays stayed the same, but locked up their superstar player. Don't know where the Sox go from here if they don't land Correa or Suzuki. Probably just using JBJ in Center and carrying Duran on the roster. If they dealt Renfroe and they don't bring back an actual bat in return they've significantly weakened the 2022 roster. Maybe the two prospects they got from Milwaukee will work out but if JBJ stops them from adding more payroll because of luxury tax concerns despite the tax being raised by quite a bit then this sucks. Suzuki or Schwarber only cost money. Cora's Saturday press conference talked about having "Enrique" in CF and JBJ in RF, which seems likely to me when they both play.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 13, 2022 20:49:25 GMT -5
He played in 75 games. Had a bad back. WAR is a cumulative statistic. My god man, just accept that he’s a bonafide top 10 SS. Not that hard! Anderson (28): 693 G / 17.0 WAR = 40.8 G/WAR Bogaerts (29): 1114 G / 29.2 WAR = 38.2 G/WAR Baez (29): 862 G / 23.4 WAR = 36.8 G/WAR Semien (31): 1020 G / 28.7 WAR = 35.5 G/WAR Seager (27): 636 G / 21.3 WAR = 29.9 G/WAR Lindor (28): 902 G / 31.1 WAR = 29.0 G/WAR Story (29): 745 G / 26.7 WAR = 27.9 G/WAR Turner (28): 689 G / 24.7 WAR = 27.9 G/WAR Bichette (24): 234 G / 9.3 WAR = 25.2 G/WAR Correa (26): 752 G / 34.1 WAR = 22.1 G/WAR Tatis (23): 273 G / 13.6 WAR = 20.1 G/WAR Franco (21): 70 G / 3.5 WAR = 20.0 G/WAR ^from notstarboards reply to you earlier in this thread. Saying “1 year does not make a good player” is INSANE when referencing Carlos Correa. Acting like he did nothing until his contract year lol. I mean cmon man This doesn’t even factor him being a massively clutch player So your saying he’s a better player and should be ranked above tatis and wander? Come on man Your own list you showed had him at 10. Above tatis and wander. No way would I rather have Correa than tatis or wander. Debatable Anyways. You stick to your thinking. I’ll simply say he’s debatable top 10. And I want him to be the best shortstop. I like him as a player Man, I thought you would run away and hide, or at least resolve to be more careful, after you were called out for using a list of best fantasy baseball shortstops as list of best real-life shortstops. But here you are again, looking at a list of players by games per unit of WAR that is obviously in ASCENDING order of quality with the best names at the bottom, and you totally mis-read it say it puts Correa at 10th best when in fact he is at 3rd best. You're amazing.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 13, 2022 20:06:47 GMT -5
I did not realize, but see now, that generally, neither Diekman nor Strahm have much of a platoon split, so their handedness is not as much of a factor. That is a good thing considering the three batter rule… By contrast, Josh Taylor is .282 .374 .427 .801 lifetime vs rhb, .174 .249 .230 .478 vs. lhb In 2021, .327 .429 .455 .884 vs rhb, .146 .222 .159 .381 vs. lhb
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 13, 2022 18:14:50 GMT -5
I did not realize, but see now, that generally, neither Diekman nor Strahm have much of a platoon split, so their handedness is not as much of a factor.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 13, 2022 12:35:08 GMT -5
It’s taking an awfully big risk relying on Matt Barnes to be who he was in the first half of last season. The bullpen is in a state of flux with Whitlock and Houck’s role up in the air, but a back end of Barnes, Diekman, and…Brasier? Taylor? That’s not a bullpen I’d trust to hold down games for a full season. Don’t get me wrong, I like the Diekman and Strahm signings but it’s all going to depend on Houck and Whitlock. I'm just waiting to hear who the better option out there is... Gambling on Barnes seems less dangerous than it would be if Whitlock were not looking over his shoulder. Looks like Darwinson and Taylor will go to AAA and the Sox will have multiple paths toward having a solid bullpen.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 13, 2022 10:51:05 GMT -5
Do you think Brasier and Taylor are locks? Just curious — I hadn’t thought about it. Taylor ended up having a real nice season last year. Gotta think he's a lock. They gave Brasier an arb payday in the offseason, and the way they used him the last few weeks of the season made me believe they think highly of him. He might be more borderline than a lock I suppose.
Taylor, like Darwinson, has options.
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