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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 8, 2022 21:41:57 GMT -5
Ken Brett doesn't come immediately to mind for most of us, but he was a highly regarded prospect. Kemer was drafted no. 4 overall in 1966 and put up a 1.95 ERA with 219 K's in 189 IP in A and AA the next year. He was nearly five years younger than the average player in AA while pitching for Pittsfield in the Eastern League. That fall, he became the youngest P in WS history, throwing 1.3 innings of hitless ball against the Cards. Now, of course, he's best known for his frequent flier miles - he pitched for 10 ML teams - and as George's brother. But he was once a young, fireballing lefty who appeared headed for stardom. Many people think Ken Brett could have been a better hitter than George. Even as a pitcher he slugged over 400 lifetime. Such a shame that after 67 Lonborg tore his knee skiing and Brett hurt his elbow after she ding 6 months (I think? Or weeks?) doing military service.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 7, 2022 21:03:05 GMT -5
Reggie Smith hit 320.377.522.899 in AAA at 21 In 1966, was 2nd in ROY in 67, won a GG in cf in 68. Had been a 2b I think. Bat was so quick he would pull too many foul “home runs”.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 7, 2022 16:59:49 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 7, 2022 16:56:39 GMT -5
In 2014 Chad Finn of the Globe did the "Top 50 Red Sox prospects of the last 50 years," basically in the draft era. Rice was #1, followed by Evans, Clemens, Lynn, Ken Brett, Xander, Nomar, Hanley, Cecil Cooper, and Fisk at 10. Evans may surprise; he quotes a writer saying "in Triple-A at age 20 in 1972, winning International League MVP honors by hitting .300 with a .409 OBP and 17 home runs. Add in his legendary throwing arm ... and prospect mavens would have been drooling over Dewey." archive.boston.com/sports/touching_all_the_bases/2014/04/red_sox_top_50_prospects_of_al.htmlPREVIOUSLY IN THIS SERIES Introduction: The inspiration, the process, and the near-misses. Nos. 50-41: Juan Bustabad, Gus Burgess, Otis Foster, Brian Rose, Rick Burleson, Juan Beniquez, Bobby Ojeda, Rick Jones, Bill Lee, Luis Alvarado. Nos. 40-31: Billy Conigliaro, Dick Pole, Aaron Sele, Scott Cooper, Joe Lahoud, Butch Hobson, Glenn Hoffman, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia. Nos, 30-21: Don Aase, Jonathan Papelbon, Bruce Hurst, Jon Lester, Phil Plantier, Mike Greenwell, Jeff Bagwell, Wade Boggs, Ted Cox, Mike Brown. Nos. 20-11: Sam Horn, Trot Nixon, Rey Quinones, Brady Anderson, Frankie Rodriguez, Carl Pavano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mo Vaughn, Clay Buchholz, Ellis Burks.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 6, 2022 12:26:26 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 5, 2022 17:37:18 GMT -5
Peacock Plus: "We Are Ladyparts." From the UK, a comedy about five very different Muslim women in their 20s in a punk rock band. Fun and funny, in some ways like Derry Girls, which is about Irish Catholic teens in Northern Ireland. Only six episodes in the first season.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 4, 2022 13:30:52 GMT -5
The author's insistance that Verdugo is a RF and that the Sox have a hole in LF bothers me. So does the insinuation that this LF hole would be filled by Duran or Christin Stewart without a FA addition. Like yes, the Sox *could* add a LF and push Verdugo to RF, but the hole is in RF. That's what happens when you trade your starting RF. If the season started today, JBJ and Hernandez would play CF and RF. It certainly wouldn't be Hernandez/JBJ in CF, Verdugo in RF, and Duran/Stewart in LF. When I look at mlbtraderumors.com and they have their chats I'm always surprised at how they don't connect Suzuki to the Red Sox and have Schwarber more likely to return. They have Suzuki most likely to wind up in Texas or on the West Coast. I don't think the Sox are a slam dunk by any means but I think they have greater interest than indicated and are at least a reasonable possibility. I doubt Verdugo winds up in RF. Likely they either get a RF, Suzuki most likely, and they start off with JBJ in CF (don't buy that 4th OF stuff) and Hernandez at 2b. Maybe I'm wrong and JBJ is the 4th OF and Arroyo is the starting 2b. I'm just not sold on that or that. Maybe the Sox get a cheap option like Iglesias or Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie (don't see McNeil there although I think his bat would fit well). But perhaps if they don't wind up with Suzuki they enter into a 3 year deal with Story and they wind up with Hernandez and JBJ manning CF and RF (I'd guess JBJ winds up in CF with Hernandez in RF?) But I think those scenarios are more likely than the Sox bringing back Schwarber in LF (or Soler or Pham) and pushing Verdugo back into RF. I think Verdugo at his physical best can play a good RF as he did in 2020. If I were starting Kiké and JBJ in the OF I would have JBJ in RF. Kiké has less experience in RF (75 games, 35 starts) and JBJ has the better arm. For a former/part-time infielder to track balls in the OF, CF is easier, and Fenway's RF could be a big challenge. Kiké's defensive excellence in CF was a surprise last year; I would not mess with it. But JBJ is just a 4th OF or 9th inning OF if he hits poorly, as he may.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 2, 2022 8:36:15 GMT -5
Happy New Year!
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Jan 2, 2022 8:03:04 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 27, 2021 17:20:54 GMT -5
I would really love a full-on discussion of whether we should have traded both Beni and Renfroe. Surely we have just scratched the surface of exciting, cogent and original arguments that could be brought to bear on these little-discussed topics. No one should hold back any thought that have ever had about either of these trades. If they have been mentioned before, they may have been forgotten, so it's best to repeat them again, especially if not everyone was convinced by them before. None of us should ever have to go to bed knowing that someone on the internet is wrong.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2021 12:20:59 GMT -5
These long-winded discussions of the meaning of terms that almost everyone agrees on are fascinating.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2021 9:43:35 GMT -5
This has probably been mentioned, as I haven't been through the entire thread. Story's home and away splits are stark: there's a 220 point difference in his OPS. He appears to be a creature of Coors. He's not the first one of course. There's a track record for those who left mile-high and crashed to earth. Just a guess but he'll have to really sign with an outfit that isn't concerned with that data if he expects big money. There are some who says Coors produces exaggerated splits on both ends, that Coors helps hitters at home but hurts them when they go on the road, because it's hard to adjust to pitches behaving differently at altitude and sea level. This 2016 story cites 5 people who did fine after leaving Coors, including Matt Holliday: www.draysbay.com/2016/1/29/10868328/coors-field-hitters-corey-dickerson-analysisThis guy adds Tulo and others roxpile.com/2020/02/24/coors-field-colorado-rockies-offense-effect/3/Nolan Arenado's first year away from Coors was better than his last year there, but worse than his peak. Here is an attempt to predict how he would do: sites.northwestern.edu/nusportsanalytics/2021/01/26/forecasting-nolan-arenado-outside-of-coors-field/For all hitters, it's hard to separate leaving Coors from simple aging and injuries.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 23, 2021 7:13:16 GMT -5
But isn’t it that when you give a 27YO 10/300 you are counting on him being underpaid ages 28-30 even if he will be overpaid pages 35-37? Why would Xander get paid as much as Correa for ages 31-37 if the bargain years 28-30 are not part of the deal? Out of gratitude? Do you not think Xander will command $30m per? Xander's bargain years end the day his opt out can kick in The lack of competition will help that year, but isn't Semien' 7/175 a better comp for Xander than a batter defensive shortstops $30M per? Semien was a year older but was coming off a 6.6 fWAR, 7.3 bWAR season in which he hit 45 HRs and won a Gold Glove, proving again that he can thrive at 2b. And only a poorly run team that has no chance at winning offered him 7/175.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 22, 2021 21:07:43 GMT -5
Here’s a surprising comment in a MLBTR chat just now: “Who's your breakout player in each league for next year?”
Anthony Franco 8:43 “Alex Verdugo in the AL. NL, maybe we get a star-level season from Jazz Chisholm”
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 22, 2021 20:27:27 GMT -5
The main difference between what Correa will get and what Xander will get is that Xander will be 3 years older. Exactly, Correa's 10/300 will be a 9/270 when X asks for 7/210 But isn’t it that when you give a 27YO 10/300 you are counting on him being underpaid ages 28-30 even if he will be overpaid pages 35-37? Why would Xander get paid as much as Correa for ages 31-37 if the bargain years 28-30 are not part of the deal? Out of gratitude?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 22, 2021 11:01:45 GMT -5
In a separate question, Goldstein mentions that the minimum for the Red Sox to sign Correa is 10 years and $300 million. While a reasonable expectation, it is too rich for my taste. I would rather spread that AAV on shorter years. That was my question! Jim in NC: Would Correa be a “good fit” and give the Red Sox value at 10/$300? Only only fewer years and dollars? 1:21 Kevin Goldstein: I think 300 is the minimum to get Carlos to listen, unless someone wants to do something shorter with record-breaking AAVs.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 21, 2021 6:56:16 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 20, 2021 13:16:18 GMT -5
How are you deciding that Machado and Harper are good deals 3 years into 10- and 13-year contracts, respectively? They're supposed to overperform in the first few years. Let's see how they're going in their 30s.
For a bit of a context: only 6 of the 62 position players who put up 3+ fWAR last season were over the age of 31. Only 3 were over the age of 32.
I'm a few days late commenting on this, but I have to say that this is an astounding stat. Given that MLB front offices have this stuff, it's incredible to me that they keep giving out ridiculous contracts. I hope CB has this stat written on the palm of his hand. Was 2021 typical? How many players over 31 or over 32 do we think will put up 3+ fWAR seasons in 2022 (if there is a full season)? From among Trout, Freeman, Turner, Votto, Belt, Merrifield, LeMaheiu, Grandal, Donaldson, Muncy, Machado, Goldschmidt, Marte, Semien, Escobar, Brandon Crawford? That's 16 names (possibly some mistakes on ages). JD Martinez was 2.9 in 2021, so he's a long shot.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 18, 2021 18:53:20 GMT -5
You really don't think your endlessly repeating things is a problem? You also allow the views you object to to be repeated again and again and again. It's really terrible to read. Did you know I was going to block you?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 18, 2021 17:09:48 GMT -5
All of this faulty arguments you don’t like can be criticized concisely and directly. But to do it again and again and again and again? Sure, I probably did it back on page 5. I'm sure it will either be read again and again and again or forgotten about completely because of the next 20 pages. Which do you think? Go look at the trade proposal sub forum if you want to see what happens when people don't respond to ridiculousness. There is no point in going there. You really don't think your endlessly repeating things is a problem? You also allow the views you object to to be repeated again and again and again. It's really terrible to read.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 18, 2021 16:44:50 GMT -5
I want an exceptional closer. '04 = Foulke '07 = Papelbon '13 = Koji '18 = Kimbrel Yes, Kimbrel gave us all ulcers in the '18 playoffs but he was a big part of the 108-win regular season team. I disagree that Pivetta is far more valuable as an average starter than as an exceptional closer. I don't expect him to be asked to close, so I hope he proves me wrong in the rotation.
Why do you think Pivetta will be an exceptional closer? He has 2 career saves and when Philly tried to convert him to a relief pitcher he struggled (.375 career wOBA as a reliever). He also has 3+ average-to-better pitches which he mixes well. Last season his .284 wOBA the second time through the lineup was actually better than the .307 wOBA his first time through the lineup. He's the exact type of pitcher who you don't want to convert to relief (unless you're piggy-backing). He struggles his third time through the lineup, but that goes for almost everyone on the Red Sox (and MLB really). Chicken/egg? Did Pivetta struggle when they tried to convert him to a reliever, or was he struggling as a starter so they put him in the bullpen where he continued to struggle?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 18, 2021 13:37:04 GMT -5
Here's my problem and why I post too much. I've seen message boards that allow people to say stupid or wrong things over and over again, unchallenged. That then becomes the narrative for the board and the sensible people are not welcome anymore. Once it becomes the narrative, the sensible people leave and more of the same is attracted. It would be great if others took over for me so that I don't post, but it is often ignored and then dominates the conversation. If you want to talk all day about why we should or shouldn't acquire players because of batting averages, or how the Red Sox squander games when they're getting unimaginably bad BABIP luck or how much of a disaster it was to trade Hunter Renfroe, or how it's a no-brainer that the Red Sox shouldn't offer ERod a QO, then yeah I'm going to reply. Yes I realize that it creates other problems so whatever response you have to this I already know. All of this faulty arguments you don’t like can be criticized concisely and directly. But to do it again and again and again and again?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 17, 2021 22:01:19 GMT -5
Man, I like most of the frequent posters. Even if we disagree, it is fun and I learn. I know… I can do better about not repeating (I’m out on active threads cause… what’s changing?)… but I like the back and forth around here. Better’n a cemetery. frequent posters can be great. But when I see new posts and skim then to see if they have another new and it’s just a repetitive rehash of things they’ve said a thousand times, or a selective slice of the evidence that will demand a repetitive correction from the same person who’s corrected it ten times before, it’s pretty depressing.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 17, 2021 16:58:53 GMT -5
I know I post a lot, but I do it 3 times a day on average. You just posted 6 times in the last 27 minutes. You average about 7.7 posts a day as a rough average and you left for about a full year, so you're at about 8.7 posts a day. Pot, kettle? I think he's saying that although he posts about 8 times a day, still without his tremendous self of restraint in deleting 3 drafted posts a day it would be 11.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,970
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Post by jimoh on Dec 17, 2021 13:27:28 GMT -5
A thought not directed at anyone in particular: If you are about to begin a post with "as I've already stated" or similar, just don't post it. I have taken this one step further by actually typing up a reply, reading it and saying nope, not going to hit send. Move on. Hell, yeah. I do that three times a week. Everybody should do that.
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