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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2022 10:20:27 GMT -5
voice...the only problem with that [Xander] is on the record and not wanting any part of a position change, said so recently. He is gonna go where he can play SS and I think there are teams that will let him. Are there examples of a 30YO SS with below average defense being offered more than 6/140 to play SS?
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2022 10:01:29 GMT -5
I am expecting a Devers extension, though. I don't think this signing changes the calculus much there. Paying someone $30-35M per could have changed the calculus. It's good that Story is 23.3.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2022 9:59:25 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2022 9:56:31 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2022 9:39:42 GMT -5
So fun to watch "Trevor Story - Defensive Highlights" on youtube
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 20, 2022 9:32:01 GMT -5
No opt out until Mayer and Yorke are ready.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 19, 2022 20:31:51 GMT -5
You can google "Trevor Story arm injury" and read about how he's had slight inflammation in the elbow in the past, and a little more in 2021 that caused him to change and throw more overhand from SS, with an MRI showing no structural damage. You can find charts that shown he was throwing 90+mph in the past and in the 80s in 2021. That such problems might prevent him from playing 2b well might be some former Colorado exec's opinion, if Gammons has gotten that right (how reliable is Gammons these days?), but if that exec believes that and it's not true he's not "lying". It might also be the thing that keeps people who want a SS or 3b from signing him, and delivers him to the Red Sox for a three-year deal in which he will play 2b at least the first year.
But it's not like he had to stop playing SS when he was in high school and has a pin in his shoulder.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 20:50:48 GMT -5
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 20:36:00 GMT -5
To review: "However, the common approach of using a Rockies hitter’s road stats to predict how they’ll fare on a new team can be similarly flawed, short-changing them in the opposite direction. Just as Coors Field bloats their home stats, studies show that the lingering effects of calling Coors Field home also cause Rockies hitters to perform worse on the road. Colorado’s altitude causes breaking balls to lose effectiveness, so pitchers often increase their fastball usage at Coors Field. That in turn enables Rockies hitters to adjust their approach to hunt fastballs, and the breaking balls they do see are easier to hit. When they leave Coors Field, there’s a hangover effect that causes poor road performances, particularly early in road trips as the hitters readjust." theathletic.com/3188981/2022/03/16/buyer-beware-should-free-agent-suitors-be-scared-off-by-trevor-storys-extreme-splits-away-from-coors-field/I didn’t say dud. I said but of a risk. If they give him, say $150+, would you say *that* is the contract and guy you’d have wanted as a big outcome of these last few years? You said he was a risk because of his home/road splits. That's not the case according to the studies cited by the article.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 20:08:27 GMT -5
Yeah, and this way Xander gets to be more like his childhood idol Derek Jeter in playing SS while a better SS plays next to him. I have to say, Ian Cundall 's citing on twitter of Story's hit chart superimposed over Fenway's dimensions is very encouraging, even though I know some of these long flies were helped by the altitude. Yeah, I still remember when they did that with Adrian Gonzalez’s hit chart. I don’t need to tell you how that turned out. Right, .321 .382 .513 .895 over two years?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 19:27:34 GMT -5
It is on X if he refuses to play a different position !!!!!!!!!! Or… if you willing to spend big money, you get a player in a spot where you didn’t have a guy who was just under 5 bWAR last season? A guy with big home/away splits in Colorado — so a bit of a risk? To review: "However, the common approach of using a Rockies hitter’s road stats to predict how they’ll fare on a new team can be similarly flawed, short-changing them in the opposite direction. Just as Coors Field bloats their home stats, studies show that the lingering effects of calling Coors Field home also cause Rockies hitters to perform worse on the road. Colorado’s altitude causes breaking balls to lose effectiveness, so pitchers often increase their fastball usage at Coors Field. That in turn enables Rockies hitters to adjust their approach to hunt fastballs, and the breaking balls they do see are easier to hit. When they leave Coors Field, there’s a hangover effect that causes poor road performances, particularly early in road trips as the hitters readjust." theathletic.com/3188981/2022/03/16/buyer-beware-should-free-agent-suitors-be-scared-off-by-trevor-storys-extreme-splits-away-from-coors-field/
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 19:24:40 GMT -5
You brought it up! Mookie was never staying. IT Dept…..Can we add a mute button? You can actually block any member. The block works only for you and only when you are logged in. It allows you to click on a blocked comment if you're curious. My blocking someone can be a comment on them, or on me for my own inability to resist commenting on things I should leave alone.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 19:16:02 GMT -5
I'm going to register my belief that I think it costs the Red Sox very little to have the worse infielder at shortstop and the better infielder at second base. If that keeps everyone happy then fine. Yeah, and this way Xander gets to be more like his childhood idol Derek Jeter in playing SS while a better SS plays next to him. I have to say, Ian Cundall's citing on twitter of Story's hit chart superimposed over Fenway's dimensions is very encouraging, even though I know some of these long flies were helped by the altitude.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 16:33:05 GMT -5
"Of course, if Story chooses Boston, he would switch positions for this season, considering that team leader Xander Bogaerts is entering his 10th season of holding down shortstop for the Red Sox. Speaking of Bogaerts, he would be a big fan of adding Story to an already powerful lineup. “He’s a big bat. We know what he does defensively already. I think that bat would play really well at Fenway just with that short porch over there,” said Bogaerts. “He has a nice swing that’s kind of built for that. It would be nice if we could get an addition like that after some of the big names that we lost to free agency or traded away. That’s a big boy. That’s a big bat right there. That’s an impact player.” www.mlb.com/redsox/news/xander-bogaerts-on-trevor-story-free-agency
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 9:14:58 GMT -5
I've been a Celtics fan long enough to know how to translate that quote. We Like Our Guys. Could be true. But the phrase "still recruiting" is curious. Would you say that about someone Cora does not know well?
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 7:30:35 GMT -5
I definitely missed the Yolmer Sánchez signing. Nothing special at the plate (like Araúz, he's a switch-hitter who's better from the left side) but he won the Gold Glove at 2B in 2019 (made a couple pretty slick plays there today, as well). Didn't play last year for whatever reason but he's only 29 and can also play SS and 3B. Seems like a better UT option than Araúz and, based on AC's predilection for veteran UT types, I'd say it's Yolmer's job to lose. Maybe Fitzy (or Arauz or Hamilton) plays his way into the conversation by the second half (especially if Yolmer pulls a Marwin in the first half). "In 2021, [Yolmer Sánchez] spent the entire year with the Braves’ Triple-A affiliate, hitting. 216 with three[[error, actually nine]] homers and a .660 OPS in 102 games." www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/02/boston-red-sox-sign-yolmer-sanchez-who-won-2019-al-gold-glove-at-second-base-to-minor-league-contract.html
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 7:22:17 GMT -5
Brief post-signing video of him thanking God and friends and family for helping with his "dream" of signing with the Red Sox.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 18, 2022 7:20:19 GMT -5
RHP FB 90.91mph 6.3Ft. Very thin. Brief video of Ovis ("the sheep"?) on the mound .
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 17, 2022 6:16:37 GMT -5
As fun as it would be seeing Casas in the middle of the lineup for the next 5 years, the Sox CAN'T let Freeman go to Tampa Bay. I don't want to live in a world where the Sox have to face Vlad Jr and that whole Jay's lineup for the 3 days and then face Freeman and Franco the next 3 days. The division would be a uphill climb for the next 3 years. I keep seeing Sean Murphy being a average bat? He doesn't hit for much average, but his Power and on base skills are plus plus. Top that with his top ability defensively and you're talking about ingredients for the best catcher in the league in a year from now. Either way, there's teams beyond Oakland who would covet Casas. The Cleveland Guardians have been looking for a left handed first baseman potential masher for some time also. They have pitching through the nose they can trade. .306 is plus plus on base skills these days? .405 is plus plus power these days? I guess I do miss steroids. Isolated power, plus isolated on-base, for a catcher, playing in a cavernous park with huge foul territory that depresses offense.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 16, 2022 20:29:15 GMT -5
They're not gonna give up a 2nd round pick for Comforto but they would for Freeman. They're getting that 2nd round pick for not signing Jud Fabian so they'd punt the additional 2nd round pick for Freeman. Highly doubt it. Bloom has prioritized the farm. Spending a draft pick on an elite talent flies in the face of what hes been doing. If anything its more likely Boston takes Myers and or Hosmer with a bunch of minor leaguers to help SD. They won't do either but I'm just saying whats more likely. They want to be the rays and are most likely willing to wait a few years. This is such overconfident bluster, and I'm not singling you out but there is just so much overconfident mind-reading on this site. Nobody knows for sure what Bloom is thinking. Though a good guess would be that there owners know the area is not willing to "wait a few years." That's a wildly implausible claim. Plus: We have extra picks this year because of Fabian and E-Rod. The loss of a pick will be factored into any offer for Conforto or Freeman, but none of us know how they feel about that. It would be perfectly reasonable to give up a pick rather than have to trade away two prospects in March or July to get a back to fill in a hole in the lineup. There is not any actual evidence that "they want to be the Rays."
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 16, 2022 12:01:24 GMT -5
I'd almost forgotten how hysterical this place can get when things aren't going well. Can we at least let Bloom actually strike out on free agents before freaking out about him striking out on free agents? This team might look radically different by the end of my lunch hour, let alone the start of the season. The question always is, is this a site for analysis and discussion, or for venting and lamentation and wailing.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 16, 2022 10:09:50 GMT -5
Have we had a more promising sixth starter than Whitlock? Stress fractures are not as bad as some of the injuries that can be described by the words "Chris Sale fractures a rib."
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,986
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Post by jimoh on Mar 16, 2022 8:26:20 GMT -5
I would have gone 5-75 but I am just a fanboy dummy. Very very disappointed. Dave Cameron on Rusney Castillo: "If he’s somewhere between Davis and Victorino (career ISO of .154, wRC+ of 106), and he can actually play center field, then [Rusney Castillo] should project as something close to a +3 WAR player, depending on how good of a defender he is and whether he can add any value on the bases. The six years will likely cover his age-28 through age-33 seasons, so even with some drop-off in value at the end of the deal, projecting something like +15 WAR from Castillo over the next six years doesn’t seem unreasonable. That would put this price at around $5 million per win, and there’s no draft pick tax for signing Castillo like there would be for a similar Major League free agent." blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-sign-rusney-castillo/
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 16, 2022 6:43:23 GMT -5
You’re not trading for Murphy for his average bat (for the position), you’re trading for him because he’s probably the best in baseball behind the dish. And if he’s not #1 he’s up there. And he’s under team control cheaply through his prime I wouldn’t move Casas for solely him but if you put him and Manaea/Laureano/other significant piece in a package I’d be willing to send Casas back as the centerpiece of a significant package I understand what you’re saying but I simply just don’t think a great defensive catcher who is a hole in the lineup is worth all that much. Now catchers bats do typically take longer to develop and he’s 27 so it’s possible there’s some upside there but if him and Casas are the centerpieces of a trade together that’s not very good value in my opinion. I can’t see Oakland packaging him with pitching too without it being a massive return for them. They tend to maximize their trade values and there’s no rush for them to trade a player still under control making next to nothing. Sean Murphy is not a "hole in the lineup." He was an average offensive catcher playing in cavernous Oakland last year after being above-average the two years before, and his good figures on walks and power (17 hrs) suggest he might do better in friendly Fenway. Even hitting in Oakland he was better than Vasquez.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 15, 2022 16:41:36 GMT -5
Still not seeing any evidence they are not willing to go over the limit this year. They are at 209 or so. The JBJ trade increased the payroll and created a hole that might take $20M to fill. The cheapskate move was to keep Renfroe. They did not take the cheapskate move. You are just basically saying “I think they will not go over because I think they will not go over, even though they have no reason not to.” They've been very careful to not go over since Bloom was hired. Why would they now? I hope they do but really don't see it. The three main free agents are more or less either blocking future prospects or signing elsewhere (Freeman, Correa, Suzuki) and if Schwarber was a priority he would have been back by now. So in my opinion it seems like they're going with JBJ/Duran as a OF platoon. They badly needed to reset the tax in 2020. In 2021, the only reason not to go over the tax was to be able to go over it in the future. They came very close to it in 2021, and said they were willing to go over if the right deal appeared. I have not heard any good reason for not going over the limit in 2022 for the right players. Exceeding the first limit just involves a modest tax on the overage, and the cost of going over is much less than the cost of losing. It's the SAME OWNERS who went over the limit by a LOT in 2017 and 2018 and 2019. Your comments on Freeman, Correa, Suzuki and Schwarber do not suggest they are unwilling to go over the limit. For the right deal, and if ss and 2b would work out, I think they would go over the limit for Story, Correa, Schwarber, Bryant, Freeman, and others. I think they would go over it to get Will Myers and prospects. There may be a trade or two they make in two weeks that will put them over, either because of the players they want or because they take on a contract to get the players they want. They are at about 209 now and there is no reason not to go past 230.
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