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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 15, 2021 7:08:11 GMT -5
Joey Bart is the 18th ranked prospect in baseball, according to MLB, and there’s reason to believe Davis may even be a better prospect when all is said and done. You don’t need to want Davis, or a catcher, but Joey Bart as a comp is not a negative. Just the opposite. Depends on what site you look at. Fangraphs has him much lower than 18th. He’s at 55 ( still good number) as a 50 grade prospect. Now here are other 50 grade catchers on that list: Ryan jeffers, Ivan herrera, Alejandro Kirk, Tyler stephenson, kieburt Ruiz, Gabriel Moreno, bo Naylor, Blake hunt. Ok... so he’s highest of the group. Let’s go to the write up: “Is Bart gonna Zunino? The synchronicity is uncanny. A college catcher, whose profile is driven by power and defense, goes in the top five .... Whether he’ll get to his power in games is now in doubt since Bart struck out in 42% of his big league plate appearances in 2020. ... Bart walked at a 10% clip in college. With new questions about his bat, Bart’s defensive tools become the foundation of his skillset...... Still likely to be an everyday catcher, Bart’s ceiling is now dictated entirely by how much of his power he can get to in games.” Ok so let’s look at other names. Jeffers and Herrera. Did anyone know them or that they were this high for catcher? Kirk has struggled this year in Toronto. Stephenson has struggled in minors and this year seems league average or a bit above. Ruiz can’t crack dodgers system Will he give us a prospect. Sure. Absolutely. Will he give a stud upside quality prospect that is a franchise player?? Eh. Not if he’s Joey Bart it doesn’t seem. Much more likely to be a Zunino which sorry at 4 I want more of an impact than that. But hey. Let’s see in 5 years. If he becomes a top 15 prospect and they can deal him for an ace. Hey they win this pick. But if he becomes the next drop guy after 3-4 years in majors. Welp yeah. I think we can do better than that A little bit of perspective is fair. Bart only played in 130 minor league games before getting the call to the bigs. That's not even a full season and that strike out rate reflects a kid rushed to the majors in the SSS of 112 PA's. It's not like he's Bobby Dalbec who spent 3 full season in the minors and came out striking out a ton. Not comparing the players tools, just the sample size. Joey Bart could very well be a bust, but there's still every reason in the world to be optimistic about him. He's a highly regarded prospect with a ton of upside and many teams would love to have a kid like him right now.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 18:21:37 GMT -5
Woah, a scoreless first. Hopefully Eovaldi can be our stopper.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 17:08:50 GMT -5
You will not see Casas in Boston this year. He has 90 at-bats above LOW A ball. A lot has to happen for him to be added to the 40 man and called up.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 14:59:29 GMT -5
FWIW, another team could absolutely call Leiter's bluff. Not a top 5 situation, but the Red Sox did this with Groome, who had a deal to go to SD once he fell out of the top few picks. It's a huge gamble to not sign when you're a top 4 pick. How much can you REALLY expect to improve your stock when you get picked in the top 3? It might be different if he fell even a little further but that's a hell of a risk. Like if the Rangers really wanted him at 2, they could easily take him and offer him even like, $6.7M (what Max Meyer got), and he'd be pretty hard-pressed to say no to that. What're the odds he goes back to school and gets enough above that next year to make it worth waiting? Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Rangers pick him at #2 and he does not sign they get the #3 pick next year correct? I'm not trying to discount the loss pick, 5% overage, and how that effects the rest of the draft but I would think that would put a big floor on the risk for a team like Texas to take him only for him to not sign. For Leiter there is no floor. He could go back to school and get hurt.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 14:10:59 GMT -5
Does anyone else feel a circus running around in their heads? I prefered Kumar over Leiter for so long but after so many mock drafts and posters putting Leiter over Rocker I really talked myself into liking Leiter better. Now I'm going back and looking over all the scouting reports today and thinking, could Rocker end up being the better guy long term? The drawback list for Rocker over Leiter doesn't seem terribly larger, and I could see him turning into an absolute beast of an ace if things break right for him.
I find myself in a similar conundrum with Davis vs. one of the high school shortstops. I was probably the last person on the Davis train and now I think he might be my #1 choice, but, again, I find myself dreaming of the 5 tool potential shortstop.
No one talks about Watson to the Sox, so I haven't even considered him but now I'm wondering does he potentially have the highest ceiling of the 4 HS SS at the top? IDK.
Honestly, some of you guys seem so set in stone in who you prefer over who and I envy you.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 12:32:35 GMT -5
2021 Erod for 2019 Erod.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 11:49:20 GMT -5
I was actually thinking the same thing, and thinking about making the same point but after reading someone else say it and thinking about it I'm not sure that's right.
That might have been a factor hurting Franchy, but everyone else was dealing with it too and he was still horrid compared to the rest of the league.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 10:14:15 GMT -5
I disagree with your disagreeing. Just because something turned out to be "wrong" doesn't mean someone was feeding false information. Rumors are just rumors, why do you think these boards change every other day? What these guys are hearing is constantly changing. You, nor I, really have any ideal specifically WHERE this information is coming from. And just to be clear I'm not saying that I believe this to be the case. I said "for all we know" for all we know means precisely that, that we don't specifically know. Fair enough. I was saying I would be really surprised given their reputation and history. This is the publication that nailed the first 20+ picks on the draft a couple years ago. They really pride themselves on not being used that way. BUT you surely could be correct. It could definitely happen but I bet it would only happen once. Fangraphs prediction also goes with what the scout told me earlier this season about Detroit. But who knows. Fun 3 weeks ahead Agreed. I don't think that's the most likely scenario.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 10:13:35 GMT -5
A team could also call Leiters bluff. Ok we will pick you #3 and we're going to offer you 7 million and we think you will probably take that.
Yes, he could not be bluffing but 7 million is a lot to pass up. Look at what happened with Brady Aiken, he turned down the money and it ended up costing him $2.5 million. Again, I have no clue what I'm talking about but I'd be willing to bet teams have an idea if a guy is bluffing or not, and if they want to take him, they're going to take him and throw the money at him.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 9:51:42 GMT -5
But for all we know that's a rumor being pushed by Detroit or Texas to prevent him from being taken #1 or #2. I don't think that's the case here, but it's not like these specific rumors get sourced directly. We really have no idea. I disagree. Fangraphs and the author that wrote that very closely monitors his sources and usually has multiple sources telling him the same thing before he puts it out there. It certainly could happen for sure but it would ruin his relationship with that source. And he uses them for various things including his rankings of top prospects and shares them with espn contacts also. Fangraphs is one of the more “in tune” resources I’ve found for information in regards to draft content and prospect content. I disagree with your disagreeing. Just because something turned out to be "wrong" doesn't mean someone was feeding false information. Rumors are just rumors, why do you think these boards change every other day? What these guys are hearing is constantly changing. You, nor I, really have any ideal specifically WHERE this information is coming from. And just to be clear I'm not saying that I believe this to be the case. I said "for all we know" for all we know means precisely that, that we don't specifically know.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 9:39:28 GMT -5
But for all we know that's a rumor being pushed by Detroit or Texas to prevent him from being taken #1 or #2. I don't think that's the case here, but it's not like these specific rumors get sourced directly. We really have no idea.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 9:36:59 GMT -5
Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA) 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Preparatory School (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA) 5. Baltimore Orioles: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC) 7. Kansas City Royals: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt 8. Colorado Rockies: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State 9. Los Angeles Angels: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK) 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-mlb-mock-draft-one-month-to-go/How does one price themselves DOWN from a higher pick/slot in this case? Tex: I'll give you $8M (~$200K over slot). Leiter: I can get $9M (~$2.3M over Boston slot)? Is everyone at 1-3 shopping for deals so everyone would be lower? Is there a chance the highest bonus goes at 4? Has that happened under the new rules? (2021 slots for reference, per MLB)
1) Pirates: $8,415,300 2) Rangers: $7,789,900 3) Tigers: $7,221,200 4) Red Sox: $6,664,000 5) Orioles: $6,180,700 I think your quarrel is with the semantics FG uses. He meant that Leiter is trying to price himself in such a way that he MOVES down to Boston. That would imply he's asking for more money.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 8:13:27 GMT -5
Ah, the Mock drafts have made a full rotation with Mayer/Lawlar back at the top. Can I just cryogenically freeze myself for the next 4 weeks???
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 7:23:57 GMT -5
I don't think it makes much sense for the Red Sox to "cut a deal" at the top. Now there seems to be some confusion in what it means to cut a deal so I will use an analogy to make my point. You have to buy a car, you have the money to afford the Porshce but some people in your position say you should buy the Honda Accord and use the rest of your money on something else. We are all (most of us) saying to go buy the Porchse. Now, that doesn't mean you walk right in and pay the sticker price, maybe you negotiate the price down a few thousand dollars. But you still went with the Porsche and not the Honda. Here's the point. When we talk about "cutting a deal" I think most of us envision signing a lesser talent and saving a significant chunk of change. Is it possible the Sox sign someone in that elite teir and save 200-600K in money? absolutely. But I doubt their game plan is to "cut a deal" and save some money. You have the #4 pick in the draft, you do your best to get the Porsche, and if you truly believe there is one guy on the board above the rest you pay the damn sticker price if you have to. Right. The decision isn’t a Porsche or a Honda. If it was, we wouldn’t be having this debate. It’s more like “is the Porsche a Porsche, or is it just a Honda with a Spoiler and rims with a Porsche price tag?” This draft is not super talented at the top. It’s deep once you get out of the 1st though. There's a tier of guys at the top 5-7 guys. The concept of "cutting a deal" means you pass on one of those guys and sign someone who might otherwise not be in the top 10. I mean....It's a crude analogy man, take it for what it is.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 7:04:42 GMT -5
To build upon my point, I also think this is the year you do not cut a deal at the top. There is more fluidity between picks later in the first round and later rounds to do that, but you're picking 1-4, a position you haven't been at in 1/2 a century. Why would you cut yourself out of that elite tier of talent? You're not going to. Odds are, that high, the Sox have those guys ranked and I have to believe they're taking BPA and not moving down the list to save a few hundred thousand dollars.
Also, this draft is deep. Think of all the college juniors who went back to college last year. I would have to imagine the "senior sign" class is going to be super-deep. I suspect picks 3-10 are going to be very exciting for us. There is a chance to get some talent with potential in those rounds without having to throw 1st/2nd round money at people. And in some shape or form, they will find some money to throw around after the 10th round.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 14, 2021 6:55:09 GMT -5
I don't think it makes much sense for the Red Sox to "cut a deal" at the top. Now there seems to be some confusion in what it means to cut a deal so I will use an analogy to make my point.
You have to buy a car, you have the money to afford the Porshce but some people in your position say you should buy the Honda Accord and use the rest of your money on something else.
We are all (most of us) saying to go buy the Porchse. Now, that doesn't mean you walk right in and pay the sticker price, maybe you negotiate the price down a few thousand dollars. But you still went with the Porsche and not the Honda.
Here's the point. When we talk about "cutting a deal" I think most of us envision signing a lesser talent and saving a significant chunk of change. Is it possible the Sox sign someone in that elite teir and save 200-600K in money? absolutely. But I doubt their game plan is to "cut a deal" and save some money. You have the #4 pick in the draft, you do your best to get the Porsche, and if you truly believe there is one guy on the board above the rest you pay the damn sticker price if you have to.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 13, 2021 20:19:01 GMT -5
Down is batting .333 since June 12th. Time to bring him up!!!
(Now read it again and pretend I had the ambition to add italics)
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 13, 2021 16:12:16 GMT -5
Not for what you're giving up. Passing on a top 4 talent just to get an additional high school guy with upside or two just isn't worth it at that spot specifically. I mean, Blaze Jordan's bonus was over a million dollars above slot and I wouldn't even want to cut an underslot deal for a prospect of his caliber. Seems there are 7-8 (or could be 7-8 players ) equal or close at 4. So you might not be sacrificing top 4 player talent and still be able to save a few hundred thousand dollars. 7-8 guys? After three are taken? So that means there’s a pool of 8-11 guys all in the same tier? No one is saying that right now. It’s closer to 5-6
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 13, 2021 14:37:06 GMT -5
Why do I feel like weâre going to see if Kiké can pitch today? I mean Marwin.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 13, 2021 14:30:36 GMT -5
Yeah I’m ok keeping Weber out there for the inning. The game is lost, mine as well not waste the pen
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 13, 2021 14:24:29 GMT -5
This game has officially reached “what’s the most home runs ever hit against the Red Sox?” level for me.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 13, 2021 12:42:50 GMT -5
Why do I feel like weâre going to see if Kiké can pitch today?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 13, 2021 10:54:35 GMT -5
Appears the Red Sox had about 15 draft prospects at JetBlue yesterday for a workout including: Ty Evans, OF, Lakeland Christian HS (#159 on BA's list) Jose Pena, RHP, Tampa Prep (#161 on BA's list) Jake Fox, SS, Lakeland Christian HS (#315 on BA's list) Juan Aracena, C, South Dade Senior HS Where did you see this?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 12, 2021 11:35:31 GMT -5
Bello starting in AA, someone’s going to be stalking that box score today.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 12, 2021 11:33:29 GMT -5
I’m starting to like Arroyo, they don’t all have to be all-stars, if he can play 2B consistently and give us an ops of .750+ with above average defense I’ll take that all day.
Plus listening to his post game interview he just sounds like a real cool dude. The type of guy you want to root for.
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