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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 11, 2021 15:29:58 GMT -5
For all this not talking about Kumar at 4, I wouldn’t hate Kumar at 4.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2021 21:48:19 GMT -5
Go up and down the draft board for the first round every year. All these guys are being compared to all star players. The fact that a guy like Trey Ball, was given an absurd comparison was no less absurd every other time it’s done.
Marcelo Mayer is Corey Seager and Brandon Crawford. Jordan Lawlar is Xander Bogaerts Jack Leiter is Sony Grey
They give you something to dream on, it’s a cheap way to write up a guys ceiling, but that’s the thing about prospects. They all won’t get that high.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2021 20:58:59 GMT -5
Davis is the best hitter in this draft, and if you don’t believe in his glove he has plenty of arm for 3B/OF. He could be in the middle of the your order in a few years. If Lawlar or Mayer had that type of projection they’d have separated themselves as the #1 pick. You hope those guys develop that type of offensive potential. And I like Lawlar/Mayer, I’d be very excited to have one of those two in our system. But Davis is exciting too, he might even go #1 for all we know. His name has been floated there.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 10, 2021 6:25:40 GMT -5
I get the concept of trading Barnes if you don't think you really have a chance in October. I don't understand taking such a light package. If there is one trade that renders a very lopsided return for present value vs. potential future value it's an elite reliever at the trade deadline. I'd be asking for top 100 prospects + for Barnes.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2021 17:41:18 GMT -5
I hate to assume a guy is just going to recover from TJ and be just as good as before, but TJ has a pretty good success rate. Still, surgery is surgery and always draws concern.
Still, the prospect of Sale coming back stronger than before scares the shit out of me......Now replace me with the opposition.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2021 16:20:15 GMT -5
I too am interested in this question. I tried looking it up, but between I should be working and I should be working I just don't have that much ambition. I believe it's somewhere in the 70-75% range that they have to offer. So, they can save somewhere in the 25-30% range. So the Sox for example, adding in the 5% overage could give themselves an extra 2.3 million or so to spread around elsewhere. Pirates would have more. Putting this out there so someone will correct me. My take is that there is no good answer to this without having knowledge that only the front offices and agents possess. I think if Davis has offers at slot (or above) from picks #2 and #3 that gives him leverage to demand slot from PIT or at least reasonably close to slot. If it feels like he'll slide to #4 (us) or #5, and those offers are at slot, it gives PIT a little negotiating power to offer something in the range between the #1 slot value and #4 or #5 in my example. Take Baltimore as an example last year....they signed Heston Kjerstad for $5.2M despite a $7.79 slot value at #2. That suggests to me that Kjerstad's agent knew the other teams' level of interest and that he was likely to slide at least past pick #7 ($5.43M) without an above slot offer. Its hard to say where Davis goes if he doesn't go #1...it could be #2 or it could be #4 but probably no worse than that. We won't have that info even on draft day, but the answer to that likely determines his potential savings. That makes sense, there's always a deal or two cut at the top but the guys who project to go in the top usually get slot or something very close to it. I took his question as what is the hypothetical savings? I believe there is a certain percentage of the slot value that you have to offer the player. I thought it was 75% but admitedly I do not really know.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2021 16:17:00 GMT -5
Wow, Lawlar down to 7, House down to 10, and Rocker out of the top 10. If Lawler is there at 4, that's who the Sox take, IMO. No way he makes it to 7. I would be very happy with that
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2021 15:36:52 GMT -5
How much bonus $$$ could Pirates save by taking Davis (no leverage) rather than say SS Mayer? I too am interested in this question. I tried looking it up, but between I should be working and I should be working I just don't have that much ambition. I believe it's somewhere in the 70-75% range that they have to offer. So, they can save somewhere in the 25-30% range. So the Sox for example, adding in the 5% overage could give themselves an extra 2.3 million or so to spread around elsewhere. Pirates would have more. Putting this out there so someone will correct me.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2021 8:34:43 GMT -5
Wow, Lawlar down to 7, House down to 10, and Rocker out of the top 10.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2021 8:31:23 GMT -5
The thing about Arroyo is he can play his position too. He keeps this up and this team might start winning some games here, oh wait they already are. Well, maybe we can start beating the Astros.
This team is going to have a chip on it's shoulder all year, because they're exceeding their expectations and playing better than everyone guessed they did. It's so easy to write them off after losing 3 out of 4 to Houston, and it's just as easy for someone to say "This is what happens when they play a good team, they will not compete in October". The Sox can make a huge statement by winning this series.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 8, 2021 8:23:31 GMT -5
Don't forget Chris Sale also cost Victor Diaz, and one of the Luis A. Basabes.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 7, 2021 19:33:09 GMT -5
I don't feel like this is important enough to start a new thread and this is the closest I can find but I was looking at some numbers earlier tonight.
in 2019 MLB had 15 players who had over 200 IP. Cole led the league with 212 IP, go back 20 years and 22 pitchers had more than 212 IP and 44 pitched over 200.
Now I know the game has changed, and teams leverage relief roles much more now a days, but I truly miss having a guy at the top of your rotation that is going to go 240 IP and just deal all season long. I still feel that having that one guy you can lean on to go 9 when he's on and/or to give the bullpen a rest is valuable.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 7, 2021 18:47:10 GMT -5
Lets see what happens when they take the Junk of the baseball, guys like Dalbec might do a little better at recognizing pitches he can turn on. Heck, when that happens it might be time to send Franchy back up too.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 6, 2021 16:02:23 GMT -5
Rotational depth looks to be outstanding next year, better than it’s been in a long time.
I’d still like to see an Ace at the top to pair with Sale. A nice 1-2 punch to scare any team in a 7 game series.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 6, 2021 14:01:55 GMT -5
If Barnes keeps pitching like this, do we give him a QO? If you haven’t traded or extended him I’d say hell to the yeah.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 6, 2021 13:51:51 GMT -5
Just saw Chavis make an error, hard hit ball right at him. Tough hop but most MLBers can make that play.
Moments later he makes a highlight reel dive to his left, hard hit ball had him airborne with full extension.
I can really see that “jet stream” effect. Balls fly off the bat here.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 6, 2021 10:44:24 GMT -5
First off, let's keep the Duran thread to Duran. I get there are tangents that make sense but I'm saying random posts about Dalbec and things now. Duran thread. The Sox would not have let Duran go to the Olympics if they thought he was MLB ready. If he's close to MLB ready he might force their hands if Santana can't come close to replicating his 2019. Just to be clear, because Duran was in the team for the qualifier doesn't necessarily mean he's playing in the Olympics. It's two different things. You know, I thought about clarifying that after I posted it, but I got attacked by an angry mob of young, hangry children in my own home and I forgot.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 15:34:40 GMT -5
It's very reasonable to assume LeMahieu picks things back up and that contract looks like a steal. Huh? Its very reasonable to assume it becomes a steal? I think thats a stretch. I think its reasonable to assume it might be an OK contract but he’d have to play pretty well for that contract to be a steal in his mid 30s. I agree, that was poor wording on my part. It's reasonable to assume the contract to be ok, and not great. Even when LeMahieu didn't get his Yankee stadium boost he was a .760 OPS guy with plus defense, $15 million is nothing today when players are getting back 30+ million. I suppose it's also reasonable to assume he falls off a cliff and the Yankees are paying $15 million for a good defender in the 9 hole. That would be fun to watch, but not as fun as it would be to watch Giancarlo Stanton fall off a cliff.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 11:44:43 GMT -5
If Santana is still laying eggs a month from now then things get very interesting. I think Franchy gets a second look first if he's still mashing in AAA.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 11:43:35 GMT -5
I think you meant his 2019, not his 2018. Which was the last real season we had. I know you can't erase the past but it's easy to write off 2020, there was a lot of reason to believe Santana was a late bloomer and that his 2019 year was more indicative of his talent. He's been mashing all year up until the last week. Players slump, I think we need to give him more than a week. That's fair. www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santada01.shtmlHe's in his 8 year in the big leagues. He's had two good years and six years of big negative to about nothing. I don't mind taking a chance hoping you hit 2014 or 2019. I don't for a second think he's a late bloomer though. He's a boom or bust low cost free agent signing. 511 plate appearances isn't exactly a small sample size and guys bloom late sometimes, it happens, it is reasonable to assume Santana could continue to hit well. I mean, you're probably right, he easily could be a bust here and it may be more reasonable to assume he can't replicate his 2019 season. My point was, he was brought here for depth to be the first guy up. That's what happened and he was hitting well in AAA before he got the call. He gets more than a week.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 11:28:10 GMT -5
If you're going to use Benitendis post trade performance to evaluate the trade then you really have to consider what these prospects will do, that's fair. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush; you have 29 potential years of control between 5 different guys, two of which we haven't seen play a game in the Sox system.
What I would like to know is this. Who was on the list? what were the Sox options? I would be interested to know that, but I'm not sure that's something we ever will know outside of hearing player x could have been had. Which we will find out in 10 years if that guy ends up becoming an MVP and we're still listening to amazing soxprospect podcasts.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 11:17:41 GMT -5
I think you meant his 2019, not his 2018. Which was the last real season we had. I know you can't erase the past but it's easy to write off 2020, there was a lot of reason to believe Santana was a late bloomer and that his 2019 year was more indicative of his talent.
He's been mashing all year up until the last week. Players slump, I think we need to give him more than a week. That's fair.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 11:15:14 GMT -5
I think Santana gets more than a week before you think about replacing him. This is why they brought Santana in.
The Sox would not have let Duran go to the Olympics if they thought he was MLB ready. If he's close to MLB ready he might force their hands if Santana can't come close to replicating his 2019.
But, if Franchy is still mashing I think he would get a second look first. Duran pushes the issue in August if he performs and the outfield in Boston looks bad, otherwise he gets his cup of coffee in September.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 9:38:15 GMT -5
LeMahieu has a BA of .259 and OPS of .670. [...] It's great fun to think that they will be paying LeMahieu $15M a year for the next six years, and in the 6th year he will be 37. It's very reasonable to assume LeMahieu picks things back up and that contract looks like a steal.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jun 5, 2021 7:58:34 GMT -5
Not sure how one can complain when we don't really know what the list of prospects were.
I love the infusion of talent, can't wait to have our guys get some eyes on them and see how they progress this year.
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