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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2024 10:30:10 GMT -5
Tipman at 137? Can you say Dalton Keene? His production over 3 years equal total what he should have in one year to get picked that high. Yes he's a great athlete, better than Keene given his size, but has almost no catching production. His teammate Isaiah Williams slot WR is the guy you want from that program, kinda reminds me of Edelman.
I've done enough mocks to know the value of the talent available at 137, it's very good. Falls off a cliff by pick 180. Still you'd have a hard time saying Tipman is great value at pick 180. That's just such a Bill pick, guys excited to play special teams. I just don't see how Tipman at 137 is a dream scenario. Heck a lot of those picks are picking guys early, not getting great value picking them latter. I can get on board with a bunch of them because I love the combination of Baker and Means to rebuild the X position.
General rule of thumb, you don't overdraft a guy at a position in this draft that's rated the worst in the whole draft. Sorry still having flashbacks of trading up for Keene.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 24, 2024 1:30:56 GMT -5
Daniels running reminds me of Boutte, he has great vision. He just picks the right paths and angles to knife throw college defenses. No he's not Fields the College version or NFL version. Brian Hoyer with a much better arm meets like Russell Wilson. A much more physically gifted Purdy type. Former 5 star recruit, so he's a good athlete with a good arm. My questions with him, is in that offense you don't see him sitting in the pocket making all the NFL throws. Very good arm, highly mobile, excellent on the run throwing, very good runner. You can watch him go through multiple reads on the run, something you don't see a lot of QBs do. I just absolutely love what he does on the move. He struggled at Auburn playing with bad talent and coaching, something Fields never did. I saw somewhere the only QB to workout for every team in the NFL was Bo Nix. Makes sense, they likely wanted to see what he looks like in the pocket making every NFL type throw. If he can do that, watch out. I don't think anyone has a clue what the Patriots are going to do and that's the way they want it. It's like if Bill was here, multiple scenarios depending on what happens. We've had this debate before and I just don't agree. I love Maye, but I'm also very high on Penix, Nix and Rattler. I like McCarthy, just not crazy high. I love the WRs at the top of the draft. Heck I'd draft Jayden Daniels if we aren't talking top 3 pick. Per reports to trade down they need a godfather type offer, like 3 first round picks is the starting point, plus more and a player. We just don't know who the Patriots player is at QB. What if it's Penix? What if it's Nix? I know what I would do, but there are multiple ways to build great teams. Let's see what they do. I'm crazy excited. I've got this weird feeling Wolf is going to be great, like Bill during the draft minus the head scratching crap. Like people think taking Rodgers with Farve is crazy, but it ends up being brilliant. That's what I'm choosing to believe! That makes sense on Bo Nix. I just think the question for him about his age is his biggest obstacle. I think he's going to fall to an early 2nd round pick, unless the Broncos want to take a shot on him. In regards to the QB, my preference is Caleb (never happening) > Drake > Daniels > JJ > Penix. If they take Penix with the 3rd pick I won't be angry. Maybe a little upset that it wasn't my first choice, but glad they made a choice. If the Patriots are able to slide back a little and still take JJ or Penix, to me it's still not ideal, but they got a guy they like and have pieces around him. Rattler I would love as an insurance policy, but the price on him might be too high (before the 3rd). They'll be able to get a good skill position player in next year's draft, but they need a QB and pray it works out. The WR are very good this year so it is disappointing having to miss out on these kind of play makers. I'd be willing to trade future picks for one, like next year's 1st and this year's 3rd. That way you end up with something like Maye and Nabers to build a foundation around. Almost 30% of Nix passes were behind the line of scrimmage and 65% were 5 yards or less. I'm not making crap up, that's exactly what you see on tape. Why most scouting reports will bring up Oregons offense, it was very unique. The biggest questions are that offense and how he looked at Auburn in a different one, not his age.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 23, 2024 20:40:00 GMT -5
Enough chatter out there that the Pats may pass on Maye. I’m getting sick. Can you post what that chatter is?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 23, 2024 20:37:36 GMT -5
Just my two cents Daniels isn't a better Lamar Jackson. Yes he's more accurate with much better mechanics because Jackson was horrible coming out. He's not the playmaker Jackson was, doesn't come close to having his arm strength, doesn't throw on the run. Jackson is likely the best playmaker college has ever seen. He also put up huge stats passing and running without any NFL talent. Bo Nix has like 4 times the natural talent Hoyer did, while also being that high football IQ guy he was. Goodluck on a great comp, because I've never seen an offense with Oregons with 2/3 short passes to YAC guys and 1/3 bombs, with a QB on the move throwing a ton, plus tons of QB running. He could be really good in the right offense, he's just not likely a fit for every team. I absolutely love the guy. I just wanted to see more in the pocket making NFL throws. It's like he's better on the move going threw reads. The others are fine to good, I especially like the Penix to Rivers comp. That's fair on Daniels. He's more of a down field sprinter rather than some athletic, power runner. I can't think of a better comp, but it's certainly not Apples to apples. Would you say Bo is more like Justin Fields? Admittedly didn't see much of him. I just get the impression he was just older and bigger than the competition. Off-topic, but it really sounds like Daniels is going to Washington. Patriots beat guys are saying they'd be skipping to the podium if Daniels fell to 3. This makes me happy because I'm more of a believer in Drake Maye. With that said, if the Patriots really do believe Maye will be there, I'm a bit nervous they're listening to calls. Supposedly both Washington and New England were called about their pick and only Washington said, "not for sale". I personally respect it because if you believe in the QB and they hit then there's no number of draft picks that would be worth it. It sounds like the Patriots aren't completely sold and could trade out of taking Maye. I don't even care if they love the player or not. I want them to take the QB. I don't think being in love with a QB matters all that much. The Panthers loved Bryce Young over CJ Stroud. The Bears loved Trubisky over Mahomes. The 49ers Supposedly loved both Mac Jones and Trey Lance. Bill Belichick loved Jimmy Garapollo. Really can't wait for Thursday night. Daniels running reminds me of Boutte, he has great vision. He just picks the right paths and angles to knife throw college defenses. No he's not Fields the College version or NFL version. Brian Hoyer with a much better arm meets like Russell Wilson. A much more physically gifted Purdy type. Former 5 star recruit, so he's a good athlete with a good arm. My questions with him, is in that offense you don't see him sitting in the pocket making all the NFL throws. Very good arm, highly mobile, excellent on the run throwing, very good runner. You can watch him go through multiple reads on the run, something you don't see a lot of QBs do. I just absolutely love what he does on the move. He struggled at Auburn playing with bad talent and coaching, something Fields never did. I saw somewhere the only QB to workout for every team in the NFL was Bo Nix. Makes sense, they likely wanted to see what he looks like in the pocket making every NFL type throw. If he can do that, watch out. I don't think anyone has a clue what the Patriots are going to do and that's the way they want it. It's like if Bill was here, multiple scenarios depending on what happens. We've had this debate before and I just don't agree. I love Maye, but I'm also very high on Penix, Nix and Rattler. I like McCarthy, just not crazy high. I love the WRs at the top of the draft. Heck I'd draft Jayden Daniels if we aren't talking top 3 pick. Per reports to trade down they need a godfather type offer, like 3 first round picks is the starting point, plus more and a player. We just don't know who the Patriots player is at QB. What if it's Penix? What if it's Nix? I know what I would do, but there are multiple ways to build great teams. Let's see what they do. I'm crazy excited. I've got this weird feeling Wolf is going to be great, like Bill during the draft minus the head scratching crap. Like people think taking Rodgers with Farve is crazy, but it ends up being brilliant. That's what I'm choosing to believe!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 23, 2024 11:02:55 GMT -5
You just don't like me wording of the tier below Great. I think there's few truly great QBs and a bunch of very good ones. Bledsoe was in the top 10 of a lot of stats when he retired. It doesn't help that Kelly went to UCF for two years instead of NFL and had a rather short career. Also I can't give him credit for being a winner, when he was outplayed in four straight superbowls and never had a good game. He's a huge reason they never won one. That's just my criteria and everyone has different sets. LIke what's your thoughts on Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning? I was quibbling (as stated) with going from All-time great down to very good. I agree the other 2 are all-time greats and think Kelly was certainly below them. I think we agree where they stand, i just thought the initial wording of just very good was a light. Rivers was great Eli was inconsistent but could step up and play top notch football. He’ll easily make the HOF because of his 2 great runs but overall his career is underwhelming in my opinion. Matt Ryan I struggle to label With my system I say Rivers and Ryan were very good and Manning was good, heck maybe a level below. Manning without SB just wasn't anything special. Great for me is either all-time greats or best of your generation. Those guys played with Payton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 23, 2024 10:55:46 GMT -5
This is my understanding of best case comps. Let me know if I'm way off here. Caleb Williams - Mahomes (but not win the Superbowl every year elite. Similar play style and abilities) Jayden Daniels - A more accurate Lamar. Maybe Michael Vick type. Drake Maye - Blend of Justin Herbert and Josh Allen JJ McCarthy - Alex Smith maybe? Baker Mayfield? Michael Penix - Philip Rivers Bo Nix - Brian Hoyer. Maybe not fair. I'm just not a fan. I see a comp listed for him as Andy Dalton Just my two cents Daniels isn't a better Lamar Jackson. Yes he's more accurate with much better mechanics because Jackson was horrible coming out. He's not the playmaker Jackson was, doesn't come close to having his arm strength, doesn't throw on the run. Jackson is likely the best playmaker college has ever seen. He also put up huge stats passing and running without any NFL talent. Bo Nix has like 4 times the natural talent Hoyer did, while also being that high football IQ guy he was. Goodluck on a great comp, because I've never seen an offense with Oregons with 2/3 short passes to YAC guys and 1/3 bombs, with a QB on the move throwing a ton, plus tons of QB running. He could be really good in the right offense, he's just not likely a fit for every team. I absolutely love the guy. I just wanted to see more in the pocket making NFL throws. It's like he's better on the move going threw reads. The others are fine to good, I especially like the Penix to Rivers comp.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 21, 2024 13:38:18 GMT -5
Drake Maye lost multiple WR and multiple OL to NFL draft last year and his OC. Go watch his tape from two years ago. He's not inaccurate throwing. It's OC asking him to do way too much without the talent needed. Think Zappe end of year with so many top players out and them asking him to throw most plays.
Guys like McCarthy and Daniels against good teams do a ton of easy checkdowns. They didn't do that with Maye, it's go out there and make big plays to win us the game. Same crap you see with Rattler. Overall Maye did rather well in a horrible situation and it's great he got to learn that crap in College. People are docking him for this year and I see it as a big plus. Guys like Williams, Maye and Rattler won't be shell-shocked by the pressure NFL teams bring every game.
You just need to make sure you get the offensive talent level upgrade done before he plays. He's got some issues, every college QB does. He's not as raw as some people think. He's not some major project like Josh Allen, Jordan Love or Anthony Richardson.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 21, 2024 13:19:56 GMT -5
I think he's a level below the greats like Dan Marino and John Elways of his time. Heck his HOF level is about half of the average HOF QB. I agree he’s a step below Marino and Elway who are both top 10 QBs (being conservative) all-time, but very good (and I’m quibbling) is too low. He was excellent. I don’t even know how to compare QB stats across eras anymore, but when he retired he was top 10 in most QB stats. You just don't like me wording of the tier below Great. I think there's few truly great QBs and a bunch of very good ones. Bledsoe was in the top 10 of a lot of stats when he retired. It doesn't help that Kelly went to UCF for two years instead of NFL and had a rather short career. Also I can't give him credit for being a winner, when he was outplayed in four straight superbowls and never had a good game. He's a huge reason they never won one. That's just my criteria and everyone has different sets. LIke what's your thoughts on Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan and Eli Manning?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 20, 2024 15:51:29 GMT -5
Draft season is crazy, actually having scouts question how athletic Drake Maye is, wow. Dude this has been going on for a month and a half. It's still as crazy as the first day! There's certainly things to debate with Maye, his athletic ability isn't one of them. He's not less athletic than Justin Herbert, he's a more athletic version of him. Same with Big Ben, he's more athletic. It's a big reason why he's a much better runner than those two in College. I do wonder if it's the same one scout that multiple people are using for different reports.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 20, 2024 14:27:48 GMT -5
Draft season is crazy, actually having scouts question how athletic Drake Maye is, wow.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 20, 2024 12:08:30 GMT -5
That's actually perfect with them down Butler and Rozier. You get the crazy D test, scrappy team without enough talent to actually win.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 19, 2024 20:17:33 GMT -5
Well it all depends where the QBs get drafted, bar for top 3 pick is much higher than pick 10-15 and the bar at 16-32 is even lower. Best QB draft of all-time is 1983, two all-time greats in Marino/Elway, a very good Jim Kelly, a very solid Ken O'Brien and an okay Tony Eason all taken in first. 2020 first 5 QBs taken are all good to better QBs, long way to go, but that has a chance to be the best draft class ever. Maybe they don't reach the heights of two all-time greats, but you could have 5 QBs with AAV of over 100 for their careers. Never been done before and zero busts for 5 straight picks. Even that 1983 class has #2 QB pick, 7th overall busting completely in Todd Blackledy. Then Eason and O'Brien going before Marino. Take that 2020 class, it's crazy good for it's depth of starting level QBs, how does it turn out? How many great QBs, how many very good and how many just good ones? So if you look at the last 40 years of QB classes how to you rank this one? What type of QB are you chasing? How many will be great, very good, good, solid or so-so? That’s a big disrespectful to Jim Kelly. He’s better than very good. He was a great QB. I think he's a level below the greats like Dan Marino and John Elways of his time. Heck his HOF level is about half of the average HOF QB.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 19, 2024 12:03:18 GMT -5
Well it all depends where the QBs get drafted, bar for top 3 pick is much higher than pick 10-15 and the bar at 16-32 is even lower.
Best QB draft of all-time is 1983, two all-time greats in Marino/Elway, a very good Jim Kelly, a very solid Ken O'Brien and an okay Tony Eason all taken in first.
2020 first 5 QBs taken are all good to better QBs, long way to go, but that has a chance to be the best draft class ever. Maybe they don't reach the heights of two all-time greats, but you could have 5 QBs with AAV of over 100 for their careers. Never been done before and zero busts for 5 straight picks. Even that 1983 class has #2 QB pick, 7th overall busting completely in Todd Blackledy. Then Eason and O'Brien going before Marino.
Take that 2020 class, it's crazy good for it's depth of starting level QBs, how does it turn out? How many great QBs, how many very good and how many just good ones?
So if you look at the last 40 years of QB classes how to you rank this one? What type of QB are you chasing? How many will be great, very good, good, solid or so-so?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 19, 2024 9:39:34 GMT -5
Commanders will soon make a decision on who they'll pick at #2 per GM.
Patriots are open for business at #3 per Wolf. I sure hope that means if the QB they want is gone and that QB is Maye. You just can't overlook that statement once again made a week out from the draft. I don't care if Vikings offer you 4 first round picks, if Maye is on the board you take him! If Maye is gone, that changes things.
Everyone brings up Green Bay when talking about Wolf, but he's acting more like Bill. Seems those 4 years under Bill were very meaningful. That's all the Anderson thing, typical Bill type move. Wait till free agent market is 100% dead and get a player to take a payout.
Per reports they called Eagles about AJ Brown and were told he's off limits. So they are certainly out there trying everything. Will they meet the price if a player is traded or just wait for a good deal? I think it picks up on draft day. Those team pick another WR or a guy they want is there at a pick they can get in trade. I'd assume if Patriots pick QB at #3, they get more aggressive in trade talks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2024 16:06:32 GMT -5
Bazooka Joe late because he flicks his wrist and the ball goes zooooooooooom Lol yeah and he doesn't know where it's going. A rocket for an arm is great, unless like him you have no accuracy with it. There's a reason the most physically gifted QB is projected to go late in the draft.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2024 13:52:25 GMT -5
Listened to Phil Simms on SiriusXM with Pat Kirwan & Jim Miller yesterday. He sees JJ as a fit for NE, doesn't think Maye is ready (too many simple misses), expects Daniels to go #2. Likes Nix & loves the Penix arm. More too. Blows my mind "sees JJ as a fit, Maye not ready". I get not loving the floor with Maye and thinking McCarthy might be less of a boom or bust, but neither guy is "ready". I just want the highest ceiling and hope Rattler is there in round 3. If not, maybe Tanner Mordecai, Kedon Slovis, or Jordan Travis in the 6th round. They desperately need a QB and we know Zappe isn't going to be it. Big believer in giving it 2 swings vs the 1. Devin Learly in 6th round if you want a high upside QB prospect. Mobile QB with major arm talent.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2024 13:48:50 GMT -5
Why do so many draft experts struggle to equal things out? You have to adjust for Talent level of OL, WR, RB and the offensive system. You just can't compare QB and not adjust, like how many QBs look great playing for Patriots last year? Versus a team like the 49ers? I always ask questions like what happens if you switch Daniels with Maye, McCarthy for Maye, etc. Give Maye 2 more years in college, a competent OL, Nabers and Thomas. Now how does he look? Payton Manning, Andrew luck, one of the best QB talents ever draft wise! Guy had his receivers drop more passes than he had bad passes.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2024 13:06:01 GMT -5
Why do so many draft experts struggle to equal things out? You have to adjust for Talent level of OL, WR, RB and the offensive system. You just can't compare QB and not adjust, like how many QBs look great playing for Patriots last year? Versus a team like the 49ers?
I always ask questions like what happens if you switch Daniels with Maye, McCarthy for Maye, etc.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 18, 2024 10:36:13 GMT -5
I like my OL guys experienced and battle hardened, while getting better each year. Joe Alt 3 year starter, got better each year, is young, great size, former defensive player who's still new to OL. I have some issues with him, like Notre Dame not running behind him.
Mims has only started 8 games in his entire career. I like him more than Guyton because he's actually been good, but not great. PFF has many players with good upsides rated above him in this draft. Jones another upside guy from Georgia that went to Steelers wasn't very good last year. It's becoming a trend that these highly drafted OL guys with upside aren't doing very well in the NFL.
Jordan Morgan was my main target for months, highly athletic with years of good play. He's got very short arms and now most people are projecting him to OG. I have to agree with 32" arms, which is a shame.
Patrick Paul OT Houston. He has elite size, is very athletic, tons of starting experience at LT. Much better pass protection than run blocking right now. Big knock I keep hearing is teams want to see more of a mauler attitude with him. Only issue I have mocking him to Patriots is they seem to be looking at those maulers in the run game a lot.
Still the biggest thing for our OL is our new coaches actually being good and getting our guys to improve, while working as one unit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 17, 2024 18:25:27 GMT -5
Everything I've seen it was Atlanta GM and those guys pushing hard against Bill. They likely feared Bill would be like Josh McDaniels and have much more say than most regular coaches. I don't get the issues with Bill bringing in his own coaches. That's what most coaches do and McDaniels as OC and Patricia as DC are proven guys.
If that's true, that Atlanta owner didn't hire Bill after calling references, that's just too funny. Everyone knows who Bill is and how he acts.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 17, 2024 17:54:26 GMT -5
My recent mock draft using PFN, call it more of a realistic take that we have a defensive coach and we won't fill every need in one year. Only one small trade down.
3. Drake Maye QB
34. Adonai Mitchell WR
68. Payton Wilson LB
103. Javon Baker WR
146. Javon Foster OT
180. Elijah Jones CB
182. Khristian Boyd DT
193. Isaiah Williams WR
231. Travis Glover OT
Yeah no high OT, no DE or RB that I really wanted to take. I just wanted to get Maye downfield weapons with Mitchell and Baker. I couldn't resist the risk with Wilson at LB, who I see as a first round talent. Foster had a good senior bowl, LT with tons of SEC experience. Just the way the board went. Jones BC man cover corner. Boyd huge DT. Williams is a sleeper WR for me, I'm going to keep taking WR till we have multiple hits. Glover small school LT prospect as a developmental type guy who they brought in for a top 30 visit.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 15, 2024 23:42:32 GMT -5
Here's my final draft plan: 1- Draft Maye at #3; 2- Trade with Washington for the #2 pick and pick Maye; 3- If Maye has been selected, see if any team will give you a moronic offer to trade up, then take the best available talent, preferably on offense; 4- Select MHJ. That's it. I accept no deviation. 1. Hope Washington is stupid 2. If they are, take Maye within 1 second of Washington pick. 3. Washington takes Maye, WTF let's not even think about that lol.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 15, 2024 15:46:24 GMT -5
First round versus Heat is the stuff of nightmares. Feed me the heat! Let’s end this once and for all! I certainly understand where you are coming from, just get it over and out of the way. I don't want that. Every year it seems that Heat team limps into the playoffs then turns into a juggernaut. I really want no part of that in the first round.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 15, 2024 15:43:34 GMT -5
I don't think we know anything yet about the QBs other than Bears are taking Williams #1. Washington and Patriots are both doing top 30 visits with Maye, Daniels and McCarthy.
ESPN insider with an interesting note about Baker Mayfield, saying most had Darnold or Allen going #1, till about 24 hours before draft when it became known it was Mayfield. Nobody knows, because I don't think Washington right now knows 100% who they will pick. There's literally reports they take all 3, they are debating Daniels versus Maye, etc. I'd love it's Daniels go buy a jersey crap if I actually believed it was true. The most I buy at this time is maybe Daniels is the front runner. Why? You don't waste a top 30 visit on McCarthy is you are already 100% on Daniels and unlike Patriots there no talk about trading back.
I also don't for a 2nd believe Patriots are leaking crap to pump up McCarthy to the fans. Been a draft nut for many decades, that crap doesn't happen. You get leaks, you get tons of misinformation to fools teams, you get so called experts opinions based on very little. I can't recall a single team pumping up a player on purpose so when they draft them the fans are excited.
Top 30 visits OL is by far the most amount of players. Interestingly it's a ton of lower round players. I find that crazy interesting, I don't ever remember so many players getting top 30 visits that could literally go undrafted by the current rankings and I look at everyone rankings.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 15, 2024 5:45:52 GMT -5
Sixers vs Heat in a play-in is chefs kiss First round versus Heat is the stuff of nightmares.
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