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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 10, 2023 12:03:44 GMT -5
Why would the Twinns do that? Half game back in division, he's in their rotation and has had 3 good starts in a row. I love the idea, type of thing Bloom should be looking at doing, I just don't see it. Half game back in division you need to add without hurting big league club. MLB needs to consider realigning divisions. Last place Red Sox would be leading the Central, it's crazy and not just a one year type thing. Depends. Their rotation is kind of insane, but they have no bats. A 35 year old rental in Maeda who was hurt won’t net them much. Dalbec could help them now and a few years going forward Perhaps a Dalbec and Murphy gets it done? Maeda really hasn’t been part of the equation in terms of their rotation production this year. Definitely a potential match 3 straight starts since coming off injured list, 17 innings, 3 ER and 21 strikeouts. Sorry I don't see Dalbec helping more than that! You want to send them Dalbec I'd look at other options and frankly if they want actual improvements it's not him. Maybe they take a flyer on him, yet not for a guy pitching well in their rotation.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 10, 2023 9:34:56 GMT -5
Kinda disappointing summer league so far. Davison is a guy you'd hope takes a big leap, yet kinda of the same guy. Polish center hasn't done much, guy from Hungary who looked great on tape hasn't even played. Scrubb has been good at scoring, yet where are the rebounds, assists, etc. Former Jazz center had a good night, after a not good game.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 10, 2023 9:23:33 GMT -5
I think it will be around slot. Nationals could have been offering under slot and pivoted to BPA when they got turned down. Why would a HS guy even consider under slot on day 1 though? Just go to school at that point. Depends on who the HS player is no?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 10, 2023 9:19:06 GMT -5
Why would the Twinns do that? Half game back in division, he's in their rotation and has had 3 good starts in a row. I love the idea, type of thing Bloom should be looking at doing, I just don't see it. Half game back in division you need to add without hurting big league club.
MLB needs to consider realigning divisions. Last place Red Sox would be leading the Central, it's crazy and not just a one year type thing.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 16:13:02 GMT -5
Braves 2021 at deadline per BR 36.4% playoffs, 35.2% division, 7.6% Pennant, 3.7% WS win Sox 2022 11.5%, less than .1%, .6% and .3% Guardians 50.1%, 32.1%, 2.5% and .8% The problem is fangraphs crazy odds no? Going by BR the Braves buying isn't crazy at all, Red Sox and Guardians weren't even in the same ballpark. Red Sox not selling looks horrible. Add, 2022 White Sox 42%, 30.2%, 1.5% and .8% Do you have any idea at all if the fangraphs odds are worse or better than b-ref? It’s certainly a totally reasonable logic and in my mind probably more like what teams are actually doing if they take a data science approach. Baseball Refrence odds all make sense, you don't get Orioles 1.5 games back of WC spot and Fangraphs saying their playoff odds are 2% with almost a third of the season left. They make way more sense with the examples given. Overall, I have no clue I don't hardly look at them for Red Sox, nevermind all teams. That being said I don't see how you come back from the horrible Orioles take.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 16:04:46 GMT -5
Duggar needs to work on his pass coverage, I'm not paying him big money unless that improves a ton.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 16:02:53 GMT -5
How athletic is Justin Bean? He filled the stat sheets in the G -League last year and was very efficient doing it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 12:34:54 GMT -5
I would be more curious to see how many of the 30% teams *should* have sold. Not even to justify a plan this season, but just because it would be interesting. I believe the folks arguing they don’t… but does data show that is wise? Put differently… I am curious not what the buy/sell line *is*, but independent of perception, what ought it be? Not sure how you answer a 'should' question like that; it just depends on what you think a worthy gamble is. Last year at the trade deadline the Guardians had essentially the same FG playoff odds as the Red Sox and more or less stood pat; given that they made it to the ALCS I think it would be hard to make the case they should have sold. Whereas the White Sox were at 51% and didn't make the playoffs, so does that mean they should have sold?
On August 1st, 2021, FG gave the Braves a 15% chance of making the playoffs and a 1% chance of winning the World Series. They were buyers; should they not have been?
Braves 2021 at deadline per BR 36.4% playoffs, 35.2% division, 7.6% Pennant, 3.7% WS win Sox 2022 11.5%, less than .1%, .6% and .3% Guardians 50.1%, 32.1%, 2.5% and .8% The problem is fangraphs crazy odds no? Going by BR the Braves buying isn't crazy at all, Red Sox and Guardians weren't even in the same ballpark. Red Sox not selling looks horrible. Add, 2022 White Sox 42%, 30.2%, 1.5% and .8%
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 10:31:24 GMT -5
BTW starting next year, 7 million over luxury tax all trades need to be equal in salary. How is that even possible? Also we can't wait to use our trade exception next year, it disappears at the end of this regular season. So use it by deadline or its gone.
Also cap increases can't exceed 10% in a given year. So new TV deal won't cause some massive jump like we've seen before, it will be spread out over years.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 10:23:50 GMT -5
I don't see how you make Lillards salary work, because I'm not trading Brown for a 33 year old PG. At same time I wouldn't just allow the Heat to make that move for some of the crap offers I'm seeing. Playing games like signing 1st round pick so they can't trade him, reminds me of the Suns with Marrion years back. So I'd offer Brogdon and Horford, with filler and picks just to drive up the price! Anyone want to run the tax numbers on that going forward? I have to say I'm surprised he only wants to team up with a 34 year old Butler. That's a very short window even if injuries don't happen. Many other teams could give him a longer window with young guys helping to pick up the slack as he ages. Just read up on The Athletic about new rules, because we're over first line, 110% for trades, not 125%, so it gets harder and a little crazy. I'm seeing Brogdon, Horford, Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser, and Champagnie works under new rules. Sending out $42.82 million rounded and taking back 45.64 million. Then you'd have to sign a bunch of minimum guys to fill out roster. It's crazy, but it's possible so you could help drive up the price.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 8:35:16 GMT -5
So it was a 2 year extension and not 3 years. It's a great deal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 8:32:00 GMT -5
I don't see how you make Lillards salary work, because I'm not trading Brown for a 33 year old PG. At same time I wouldn't just allow the Heat to make that move for some of the crap offers I'm seeing. Playing games like signing 1st round pick so they can't trade him, reminds me of the Suns with Marrion years back. So I'd offer Brogdon and Horford, with filler and picks just to drive up the price! Anyone want to run the tax numbers on that going forward?
I have to say I'm surprised he only wants to team up with a 34 year old Butler. That's a very short window even if injuries don't happen. Many other teams could give him a longer window with young guys helping to pick up the slack as he ages.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 8:08:52 GMT -5
1) On the playoff odds: That feels like an Orioles specific issue regarding their playoff odds though. Fangraphs notoriously gave them 0 percent odds before the start of last year, and even when they were 68-61 late last year, Fangraphs had them at 6.6% when BRef had them at 43% the same time period: blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-the-orioles-playoff-odds-so-low/As FG put it, “the core of our disagreement with other outlets about the Orioles’ playoff odds: we don’t think they’re as good as their record. Mostly, that comes down to pitching.” Which is fair! Their rotation was (and still is) incredibly uninspiring. But basically since Adley came up last year they’ve rode wins on a formula of a deep offense and stellar bullpen. 2) Not sure their front office is a great example in terms of buy/or sell. This is the same team whose off-season legit consisted of Kyle Gibson and James McCann. (Not you know, extending Adley Rutschman or anything fun like that.) Selling worked out for them - they got Yennier Cano in the Lopez trade - but if they knew what their record would be September 1st of last year maybe they don’t make those moves to begin with. EDIT: On Sept 1 of last year Baltimore was 1.5 games behind Toronto for last playoff spot. The opposite happens with teams they liked to start the year, why Red Sox odds were much higher that BR odds. It's a highly flawed system if you want real playoff odds, why I use BR. It's based on historical data and numbers, not peoples opinions.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 8:01:23 GMT -5
Well for one thing, are you sure you want to hitch your horse to a metric that fluctuates so wildly? For another thing, the Orioles were 51-51 when they traded away Trey Mancini (and 47-47 when the odds given at the previous link had them at 7.6%), a half game ahead of the Red Sox. By August 3rd they were 53-51, so their odds at the traded deadline were lower than whatever they were on 8/3.
In any case, your claim was "lots of teams sell with 30% playoff odds." And the very best example of that from the last 5 years is an Orioles team where only one wildly fluctuating projection might have had them close to that while the others put them in single digits. So do you still want to stick with the claim that this is what "lots of teams" do?
The article you posted said the Red Sox should sell with over 30% odds! It happens a lot, yet I can't prove it to you because I don't know of a data base that keeps track of odds on deadline day! I can't even find the Orioles odds from last year, yet given Red Sox odds they had to be somewhere in the 20% range. Fangraphs is a joke, if a team is 1.5 games back on Aug 3rd and they think that equals 2.2%, well that really shows how flawed their system is no? BR playoff odds fluctuate wildy based on win-losses and where you are in the standings, why wouldn't you want that? Only one model makes no sense and that Fangraphs saying a team 1.5 games out on Aug 3rd has a 2.2% chance. How can you support that?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 7:25:40 GMT -5
lol better record that Red Sox and the Red Sox chances were much higher than that! That's a perfect example why I don't use Fangraphs playoff odds! 1.5 games back on Aug 3rd and it's 2%? BR would have had them much higher, better than Red Sox. On July 23rd last season BRef gave the Orioles a 7.6% chance of making the playoffs. They gave the Red Sox a 32% chance.
www.camdenchat.com/2022/8/3/23290252/mlb-trade-deadline-orioles-trey-mancini-jorge-lopezOn Aug 3rd BR had them at 37.4%, Fangraphs at 2.2% as they were 1.5 games back. End of July Baltimore was on fire, Red Sox were crazy cold. At deadline Baltimore was 51-50, Red Sox were 50-52
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 7:06:09 GMT -5
Orioles sold off last year, on Aug 3rd they were 1.5 games back. They were 16-9 in July, 30-21 the last two months before the deadline. They had a better record at deadline than red sox, who tons of people thought it was crazy to sell. Fangraphs gave them 2% playoff odds on August 1st last season. But you're right - even that was a questionable position in which to be sellers. lol better record that Red Sox and the Red Sox chances were much higher than that! That's a perfect example why I don't use Fangraphs playoff odds! 1.5 games back on Aug 3rd and it's 2%? BR would have had them much higher, better than Red Sox.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 7:01:13 GMT -5
6-1 last 7 games, 1-7 the 8 games before that, 6 straight wins, 3-8 the 11 games before that. That is the team this year, all season long. up and down to crazy extremes. Currently based on historical data they have a 19.8% chance at playoffs. Half of your pitchers are on the DL, anyone really like trust Paxton to stay healthy through a playoff run if you even make the playoffs? Then again this isn't last years team, there's no Bogaerts who could net you a massive return. Paxton isn't getting you a massive return most likely, maybe good to decent. Now if someone offers you a crazy package, with under 20% chance at playoffs, it should be an easy choice. You shouldn't be saying sell at all costs, I also don't get acting like selling at even 30% is crazy. Lots of teams sell with playoff odds around 30%. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks and go from there. It's been a very frustrating year because of there crazy streaks. It’s not a dramatic difference but FG’s playoff odds are at 23%. If you’re quoting b-ref it’s just kind of odd to prefer a model which is using 11 games from the end of the 2022 season and also running less simulations. Add: also no one is saying selling at 30% is crazy just that it is also reasonable to prefer not to and that MLB teams generally (and perhaps near universally) do not do it I prefer the model based on historical data, not using player projections. A poster just said "something that essentially no team ever does". Sure as fans you don't want to, yet it happens going all the way back to the White Sox years and years ago when the media killed them for it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 6:51:39 GMT -5
6-1 last 7 games, 1-7 the 8 games before that, 6 straight wins, 3-8 the 11 games before that. That is the team this year, all season long. up and down to crazy extremes. Currently based on historical data they have a 19.8% chance at playoffs. Half of your pitchers are on the DL, anyone really like trust Paxton to stay healthy through a playoff run if you even make the playoffs? Then again this isn't last years team, there's no Bogaerts who could net you a massive return. Paxton isn't getting you a massive return most likely, maybe good to decent. Now if someone offers you a crazy package, with under 20% chance at playoffs, it should be an easy choice. You shouldn't be saying sell at all costs, I also don't get acting like selling at even 30% is crazy. Lots of teams sell with playoff odds around 30%. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks and go from there. It's been a very frustrating year because of there crazy streaks. For instance...? Orioles sold off last year, on Aug 3rd they were 1.5 games back. They were 16-9 in July, 30-21 the last two months before the deadline. They had a better record at deadline than red sox, who tons of people thought it was crazy to sell.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 8, 2023 6:29:52 GMT -5
6-1 last 7 games, 1-7 the 8 games before that, 6 straight wins, 3-8 the 11 games before that. That is the team this year, all season long. up and down to crazy extremes. Currently based on historical data they have a 19.8% chance at playoffs. Half of your pitchers are on the DL, anyone really like trust Paxton to stay healthy through a playoff run if you even make the playoffs?
Then again this isn't last years team, there's no Bogaerts who could net you a massive return. Paxton isn't getting you a massive return most likely, maybe good to decent. Now if someone offers you a crazy package, with under 20% chance at playoffs, it should be an easy choice.
You shouldn't be saying sell at all costs, I also don't get acting like selling at even 30% is crazy. Lots of teams sell with playoff odds around 30%. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks and go from there. It's been a very frustrating year because of there crazy streaks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 7, 2023 10:39:31 GMT -5
I have no idea about the new CBA, it's likely going to be a while before we get all the details. Rather certain the old one reduced veteran minimum salaries for luxury tax purposes by the salary of players with zero years of service time. So teams with luxury tax concerns would sign veterans and not just a bunch of rookies and G League players to fill out the bench to save money. At same time I don't see Sportrac adjusting anything, they have never been 100% right most of the time either.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 7, 2023 7:33:31 GMT -5
Absolutely I've said the same thing myself, 4 year deal without having to use mid-level money like before is huge. You just need to draft players you want to give a contract like that too, compared to 2 way deal. Recently Kings gave Colby Jones a 4 year deal, Warriors Jackson-Davis. Yeah I'm still upset about not taking Colby Jones. It's certainly useful having a bunch of 2nd round picks if you use them the right way. As in getting Unicorn and not trading two for Mike Muscala. BTW seeing 2024, 2025 pick swap and 2028 as the return I can’t find a site that has current draft picks after all the trades on draft night. They may be getting picks from the Spurs since the Spurs got a first pick swap from Dallas. Yeah nothing is updated since draft. Would make sense given Dallas 2nd in 2024 had protections with Knicks and they didn't have a 2028 pick. Spurs have Lakers and Pelicans picks in 2024.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 6, 2023 9:33:35 GMT -5
Seeing 2025 pick swap 2nd round and Mavs don't have another 2nd round pick till 2030 unless they picked one up recently, so 2030 and 2031 2nds? What is Stevens planning? Well besides acquiring every 2nd round pick he can get his hands on.Scal was referencing the increased value of 2nd rounders due to recent CBA change -- I wasn't listening especially closely so I can't break it down. The gist seemed to be: 4 years control of very inexpensive labor. Of course the player has to first make your team, or someone else's (though that is their problem). Absolutely I've said the same thing myself, 4 year deal without having to use mid-level money like before is huge. You just need to draft players you want to give a contract like that too, compared to 2 way deal. Recently Kings gave Colby Jones a 4 year deal, Warriors Jackson-Davis. Yeah I'm still upset about not taking Colby Jones. It's certainly useful having a bunch of 2nd round picks if you use them the right way. As in getting Unicorn and not trading two for Mike Muscala. BTW seeing 2024, 2025 pick swap and 2028 as the return
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 5, 2023 20:15:20 GMT -5
Seeing 2025 pick swap 2nd round and Mavs don't have another 2nd round pick till 2030 unless they picked one up recently, so 2030 and 2031 2nds?
What is Stevens planning? Well besides acquiring every 2nd round pick he can get his hands on.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 5, 2023 12:51:00 GMT -5
I keep seeing two reports on Grant Williams, they will keep him if the deal is mid-level or less. Only two teams can give him more, Jazz who have a million PF and Spurs, yet zero reports saying they are interested.
2nd report is they want a first round pick to do a sign and trade, which many people think is crazy unlikely.
It's confusing, yet if I had to guess it likely includes Brogdon. We do have reports that Grant and Brogdon are holding up Browns deal, as they want the others things resolved first. Yet I don't see how that matters for just an extension.
I wonder if Stevens is waiting on those big trades seeing if maybe he can get in on them if the right piece becomes available. Kinda weird, so much talk about Celtics not being close to done after getting Unicorn. Yet so far, we've gotten two bench depth signings for guys unlikely to play playoff minutes.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 4, 2023 21:20:49 GMT -5
Double S&T, Dosunmu for Grant. Is that possible? I'd say highly unlikely, yet to this day given the rules, I still don't understand how Kemba for Rozier worked. So it likely can happen. I'd point out I haven't seen Grant linked to them. Also Bulls messed up Dosunmu development making him a SG. I liked him coming out, looked at what I said, hated his shot mechanics, yet quick release. It's certainly an interesting idea.
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