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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 17, 2023 13:17:35 GMT -5
Given the talk of Whitmore and innings, I looked at the innings of our top 30 guys and it's not what you want to see if you want a bunch of starters to eat innings. I'll say first maybe it means nothing, every prospect is different. Only two guys every over a 100 inning, Mata and Drohan who has done it back to back. Gonzalez should crack 100 inning for the first time while now in AA. Only two guys in top 60 have back to back 100 plus inning seasons Drohan and Liu. I'll point out Murphy had two back to backs before going to Red Sox bullpen this year.
Now before I get attacked, again maybe it means nothing. I can see some not liking that and downgrading players because of it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 17, 2023 0:39:05 GMT -5
It always was! We learned this from Joba Chamberlain and Dan Bard(among others). When you have a lights-out reliever, you leave him the hell alone. You know Chris Sale, Adam Wainwright, Derek Lowe, and many many other lights out relievers became elite starting pitchers. It would have been a huge mistake to leave them in the pen. Sometimes they even get better in the rotation, like Curt Schilling and CJ Wilson. Saying that it is always a mistake to move a reliever to starter is just plain wrong. Everyone of those players pitched more innings in a season in the minors than Whitlock who only once went over a 100 innings, with 120. Most threw a lot more multiple times, even CJ Wilson the next closest had two seasons over Whitlocks best in the minors. I get trying, I was against it, but I can certainly understand the logic. It's time to move him back to bullpen.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2023 17:30:54 GMT -5
Good starting pitchers have tons of value, I think what some people are adding in is bust rate with TJ surgery. So it's not that we don't need them and if they have crazy value. It's more how do you get them and how you run a farm system. I'd take hitters first, then focus on a volume approach to pitchers, especially international guys. The one problem being, if you're not good at that, you'll have to sign or trade for guys. I'm fine with that.
That being said I'd dock a system if everything else equal, one is balanced and one isn't. One of the best parts of the Dodgers great system for years is it produced both hitters and pitchers. That's certainly ideal.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2023 10:19:07 GMT -5
I'm going to look at this glass half full. He was thinking about playing, Celtics basic stopped him. So it's either not a bad case or it's from last year and Celtics want extra time to fully heal. Who knows that crap can be minor or a big deal, it just depends how bad it is and how it responds to rest and treatments.
Phil is 100% right, not a surprise and injury issues are big for him. Why do you think he took a cheap extension after playing in so many games last year?
That being said we have enough talent to rest him and give him off days to keep him fresh for playoffs. Still wish we kept Grant.
Injuries to bigs mount, play small with Tatum at PF, should be in the playbook to begin with. Which basically is the bigger thing, improved coaching on offense and D. Especially our D, without Smart.
Like always I'd love for them to model themselves after a team like the Heat. Be able to play multiple ways on offense and D, which makes overcoming injuries and especially zone D much easier.
BTW I can't wait for the Pritchard coming out party!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 16, 2023 8:51:06 GMT -5
A .737 OPS hitter is currently league average, so it really depends on what you think about his D.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 15, 2023 15:11:36 GMT -5
Harris last two years 308 attempts, 18 TDs
Zeke 468 attempts 22 TDs
Stevenson 343 attempts 10 TDs
Stevenson isn't a straight line power back, he moves around and finds holes and can make big plays. On goal line and in short yardage you need a power back who just blasts ahead, not one that dances and tries to find the best holes. Field is too small and all the defenders are close together. Why they used Harris for TDs and it's also what Zeke is good at.
It's not always about the best group of RBs or other positions, it's how they fit together. Stevenson at this point is the better RB, I don't think he's the better RB for short yardage and down at the goal line compared to Zeke and Harris. That's a good thing, gives the defense different looks and keeps them adjusting. Why I loved the combo of Stevenson and Harris.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 15, 2023 14:51:07 GMT -5
Harris biggest weakness in passing game was blocking, Zeke is one of the best blockers in the game. We needed a short area bull dozing RB, that's what Harris was, that's what Robinson once was, that's not even close to what Cook is. Cook is more like Strong, we have Stevenson and Strong though. If you wanted the perfect balance for your RB group it was clearly Zeke. That makes sense. So he's basically a fullback for the Patriots. No a fullbacks main job is run blocking, well at least the way the Patriots have used them over the year. Zeke is great at pass blocking and at his size he can really do it. Also really good reading the plays and knowing when to stay in to block and when to go out and become a safety net for the QB.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 15, 2023 12:23:08 GMT -5
I don't see next man up given a certain teammate he's playing with. Yeah you don't pencil him into a starting spot either, but he should be given a chance as a 4th OF or traded. He's earned a chance to see what he can do in majors, we just have a ton of OF now.
If you believe he's a good 4th OF or more, it makes trading Verdugo easier and saves you money from having to go sign a Duval.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 15, 2023 10:45:45 GMT -5
Yeah they clearly wanted a RB better in the passing game, which was not Harris. They tried Robinson, he clearly wasn't the same guy, so they got the best option available. It's more than I thought they'd spend, still only $4 million with extra incentives. I'll miss Harris, I loved his smash mouth running with that short area burst he had. This was a move they needed to make given they messed up signing Robinson and I'm glad they did. Mac needs a strong running game. Wouldn't the best option in the passing game been Dalvin Cook? I'd still rather Harris over Zeke. Harris biggest weakness in passing game was blocking, Zeke is one of the best blockers in the game. We needed a short area bull dozing RB, that's what Harris was, that's what Robinson once was, that's not even close to what Cook is. Cook is more like Strong, we have Stevenson and Strong though. If you wanted the perfect balance for your RB group it was clearly Zeke.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 14, 2023 19:16:01 GMT -5
Yeah they clearly wanted a RB better in the passing game, which was not Harris. They tried Robinson, he clearly wasn't the same guy, so they got the best option available. It's more than I thought they'd spend, still only $4 million with extra incentives. I'll miss Harris, I loved his smash mouth running with that short area burst he had. This was a move they needed to make given they messed up signing Robinson and I'm glad they did. Mac needs a strong running game.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 14, 2023 17:03:24 GMT -5
Well Sixers have messed up everything since like 2019, outside of drafting Maxey. At this point I'm surprised Embiid hasn't asked for a trade.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 14, 2023 16:59:56 GMT -5
Now it's down to OL, specifically OTs and blocking TE, which per reports today didn't do well. If the OT hold up, it's going to be a fun year. Maybe Sow pulls an Onwenu and locks down RT, we can only hope.
About time they filled the easy to fill position with an impactful player.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 14, 2023 15:30:09 GMT -5
What did Harden think when he opted in? That the Sixers would just trade him for whatever to the team or teams he wanted to go? He knows exactly what happened with Simmons, that GM wasn't going to just give him away to make him happy. After the Celtics series who's trading a ton for him?
It's like Lillard demanding a trade and his Agent telling all other teams don't bother he's going to the Heat. Which the NBA had to warn the Agent that's not allowed.
Harden should have opted out, but he wanted the money. Lillard has earned the right to ask for a trade, it just can't be one team! Especially when said team is using that to low ball the offers.
Trade Harden for Lillard, there you go, problem solved lol. It's a joke before anyone thinks otherwise.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 14, 2023 10:29:42 GMT -5
Just a reminder under O'Brien after McDaniels left they went 37-11, playoffs all 3 years and lost to Giants in SB. He was actually a good head coach, getting GM powers was a bridge too far and it's like that for most guys who leave the Patriots.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 14, 2023 10:07:05 GMT -5
Drohan, Abreu, Valdez all also likely to make the majors next year at some point and possibly someone from the current Portland team. I think you’re probably discounting those guys because their FV projections aren’t as high, but as incandenza just showed it’s clearly possible for guys to exceed their projections. If you have 5 guys come to the majors with even just a 20th percentile projection of being a 2 WAR player, odds are one of them gets there. If you look at bust rates of top 100 guys and what a bunch of them become, there's no way a bunch of grade 40 prospects have a 20% chance at becoming at a 2 war player. Especially grade 40 guys in AAA. Anything can happen, but if you want to talk about odds I just don't see what you're saying being true. I mean go back and look at a bunch of Red Sox prospects that were top 100 guys Swihart, Owens, Margot, Chavis, Webster, Downs, Groome, Guerra, etc, etc, etc Margot was top 20 on some rankings, he's not even a 2 bwar player for his career. Given my experience I'd say those guys becoming 2 bwar type players is low single digits, a few per 100 type crap.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 13, 2023 13:55:40 GMT -5
We have a bunch of young guys not making much doing very well. Cheap talent isn't the issue, heck Bello, Duran and Verdugo could all be over 3 bwar by seasons end.
Bleir, Braiser, Hernandez, Kluber,Jansen, Sale,and Story make 89 million and together gave you zero bwar so far. The only two that are positive are Sale and Jansen $2.1 bwar for $43.5 million.
Now there have been some small short-term moves that paid off big time like Turner and Martin. Take out Sale Bloom spent $61.5 million on -1 bwar for 6 players. Take out Jansen $45.5 million for -2.1 bwar for 5 players.
This year is about injuries and free agent money that didn't pan out, not good cheap talent.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 13, 2023 11:29:45 GMT -5
The Red Sox four Championships teams had payrolls of 1st, 2nd twice and 3rd. Go look at some of those Theo teams payroll versus revenue! There were years it was crazy, now look at the current team. In the beginning our owner would go crazy, it's been declining for years. His propaganda is strong, even now people truly believe we have to reset every two years.
I don't really care what Theo said, it's what he did and that was bringing in big time talent by signings and trades all the time.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 12, 2023 23:13:05 GMT -5
I love Theo he maximized everything he could back then, yet no two high comp picks for lost QO players, no spending big on draft and international players, with harsher luxury tax payments.
Example Bogaerts and Eovaldi gave us two 4th round picks, Theo would have got two firsts and two seconds.
He traded for Billy Wagner just to get two picks when he left.
The good old days!
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 12, 2023 14:08:11 GMT -5
I'll take all in approaches and then rebuild/bridge years over building an 85 win team every year and hoping with good luck we can win a playoff series. Call me spoiled, I likely am given the past success, but I measure success by Championships. I want another Championship team, not a string of making the playoffs with no Championships.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 12, 2023 14:02:59 GMT -5
Exhibit 10 contract, so basically a camp tryout and can be converted to two way contract. I wouldn't have had a problem with a two way deal, he's not currently even close to good enough for an actual roster spot. The minute Walsh out played him in SL and got a roster spot, he was likely gone. What the Celtics need to do, is develop a system to develop players like the Heat do. With Strus it wasn't you let a great player go, he wasn't that on Bulls and he wasn't that his first year on Heat, who by the way both gave him two way deals. It's the development from first year to 2nd year with Heat, all that in one year. I then look at Davison, who is younger, but I wanted to see much more development than we saw in the SL. He has the tools and athletic ability to be an NBA player, he's still very raw even after a full year in G league. Also as pointed out before, removing him helps make it easier to use that trade exception and they really should use it given how hard trades will be next year. You do realize that Strus, Robinson, and Vincent wouldn’t have seen the court with Boston, right? Hauser just played 1290 minutes, yet overall yeah you're right. It's not about the past, it's about the future with new CBA.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 12, 2023 11:18:35 GMT -5
Exhibit 10 contract, so basically a camp tryout and can be converted to two way contract. I wouldn't have had a problem with a two way deal, he's not currently even close to good enough for an actual roster spot. The minute Walsh out played him in SL and got a roster spot, he was likely gone.
What the Celtics need to do, is develop a system to develop players like the Heat do. With Strus it wasn't you let a great player go, he wasn't that on Bulls and he wasn't that his first year on Heat, who by the way both gave him two way deals. It's the development from first year to 2nd year with Heat, all that in one year. I then look at Davison, who is younger, but I wanted to see much more development than we saw in the SL. He has the tools and athletic ability to be an NBA player, he's still very raw even after a full year in G league.
Also as pointed out before, removing him helps make it easier to use that trade exception and they really should use it given how hard trades will be next year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2023 16:01:01 GMT -5
As I said I wasn't judging, pointing out who was kept and who wasn't, which is a fact. That part on DD is my opinion for sure, but that's what he does. You were very explicitly judging though… You said “it feels wrong to praise a guy who…” Absolutely I'm judging the praise given the facts, not the moves themselves.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2023 15:54:29 GMT -5
It's certainly about homegrown talent and keeping it, which looks rather clear to me. I get it, the amounts kept versus let go doesn't matter, just one players contract size. You want to know one reason DD was let go, besides a down year? It was he wouldn't have traded Betts unless directly ordered too and our owners don't do that. Whatever, like I said I wasn't even trying to judge if the moves were right or wrong, just looking at volume. Just feels wrong praising a guy who let the best Positional player we produced in decades go, best pitcher since Lester and Bogaerts maybe a HOF type guy, because he actually kept one and the contract was big. That's if you actually want the team to keep homegrown talent. Once again you’re being condescending and stating opinions and/or conjecture as fact. But even if we go with your premise that DD was fired for not being willing to trade Betts, how do you hold it against the new GM for trading him? Presumably, in your scenario, that’s the only way he’d get hired. Should all the front office candidates have boycotted Fenway until they agreed to extend Mookie? As I said I wasn't judging, pointing out who was kept and who wasn't, which is a fact. That part on DD is my opinion for sure, but that's what he does.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2023 15:50:07 GMT -5
Who are the prospects that come up, struggle and he then trades them at deadline? I'd use Swihart as an example of him doing exactly what you say he doesn't. DD likes to trade high on guys, not let value tank and sell low. You're still not addressing/rebutting the core argument I am making.. and this clearly isn't going anywhere, so I'm going to leave it at that, and allow others to weigh in if they want to. You said your core argument was his handling of Prospects that regress or struggle. That is Swihart, so which prospects are you talking about?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 11, 2023 15:34:43 GMT -5
I’m not taking away from the good job that’s been done especially with Duran. But c’mon. July 2019, Casas was #1, Duran#3, and Houck #9 in the rankings. Are you arguing they’d have failed if not for some turnaround in development after 2020? This isn’t a DD vs. Bloom thing: these guys were on track, and the team from start to finish under multiple regimes succeeded. The point of my argument was not centered on whether or not Dombrowski should get credit for drafting/signing these players. It has to do with his track record of handling prospects that regress or struggle. Because of that track record, I would be willing bet that if Dombrowski were still GM/CBO, Jarren Duran and Triston Casas would not be "break-out, core players" on this 2023 team. I think Duran would be floundering in Worcester and completely moved on from, and I think Casas would have been demoted in May and been traded at the deadline for a rental pitcher or packaged with Rafaela/Yorke/etc for a controllable arm like Dylan Cease.. Who are the prospects that come up, struggle and he then trades them at deadline? I'd use Swihart as an example of him doing exactly what you say he doesn't. DD likes to trade high on guys, not let value tank and sell low.
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