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Recent Posts
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Brentz
Oct 17, 2012 19:15:19 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 17, 2012 19:15:19 GMT -5
Will Middlebrooks is an above average defensive thrid basemen. Bryce Brentz is a averageish (slightly below average reange, but plus arm) corner outfielder. If WMB fails to improve his K and BB rates, he would be still be an asset as the bar for average production at third base is rather low. Brentz however does not have that luxury.
IA slugging heavy OPS of .750 plays really well at third, but rather medocorely at RF/LF.
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Brentz
Oct 15, 2012 23:22:24 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 15, 2012 23:22:24 GMT -5
Maybe I misread but I took "Outfielder/Hitter" as two separate things.
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Brentz
Oct 15, 2012 23:05:18 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 15, 2012 23:05:18 GMT -5
Not to be a prick, but can you find even one scout or industry professional who feels that Brentz is the most "complete" outfielder or hitter in our system. I'm pretty sure those titles would belong to both Xander and Bradley.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 13, 2012 9:05:38 GMT -5
Remember people when you are factually incorrect, simply stick with tiresome narratives and change the goal posts of the conversation.
If you do not see a difference between competing for a spot in the playoffs with regularity over the next several seasons as we hopefully develop some elite talent from finishing below five hundred for the foreseeable future then I do not know what to say. Making the playoffs is a success, and acting like its World Series or bust just stinks of the mindset of an average Yankees fan.
But I'll play your game anyways and just leave you with this:
2011 World Series Winner St Louis Cardinals 90 Wins Best Pitcher: Kyle Lohse ERA+ 109
201 World Series Winner San Francisco Giants 92 Wins Best Pitcher: (3 way tie of sorts) Maddison Bumgarner ERA+ 131, Matt Cain ERA+ 124, Johnathan Sanchez!!! ERA+ 127 all good seasons but no true ace.
2007 World Series Runner UP: Colorado Rockies 90 Wins Best Pitcher: Aaron Cook ERA+ 117
2006 World Series Winner St. Louis Cardinals 83 Wins Best Pitcher: Mark Moulder ERA+ 144 (he was awesome) Second best pitcher: Jeff Suppan ERA+108 3rd best Starter: Jason Marquis ERA+74
2002 World Series Runner Up San Francisco Giants – 95 Wins Best Pitcher: Kirk Reuter ERA+ 120
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 11, 2012 17:48:34 GMT -5
"You see the possibility of 90 wins? Geez, I guess you could come up with a scenario with most teams to get to 90. The Sox would have to have a heck of an off-season...."
I see it as entirely possible for the Red Sox to construct a team that has a true talent level of 87 wins. If the front office is aggressive and tries to build such a team, then winning 90 games would not be out of the question. If I am Ben this is the team I would try to put out next season (My apoligies if this should be in another thread).
If Boston could trade for Ike Davis and Shin Soo Choo to fill out our lineup while replacing Salty with a Lavarnway/Butler tandem and sign one of the afformentioned pitchers I feel like we could compete.
Lineup: Ellsburry Shin Soo Choo / Melkey Cabrera Pedroia Ortiz Middlebrooks Davis Ross Lavarnway Iglesias
Rotation: Jon Lester Peavy / Sanchez / Jackson /Kuroda Clay Buchholz Felix Doubront John Lackey
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 11, 2012 14:15:33 GMT -5
"He's basically a #4 starter on a good team."
Edwin Jackson has averaged 3.5 WAR for each of the last three seasons.
He would have been the third most valuable pitcher on the Yankees. The most valuable pitcher on the Orioles. The third most valuable starter on the Rays
The third most valuable pitcher on the White Sox The second most valuable pitcher on Oakland The Third most valuable pitcher on the Rangers The Third (really second, as Grienke only played half the season for them) most valuable pitcher on the Angels
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 11, 2012 13:14:26 GMT -5
"The rotation still lacks top notch quality when compared to the contenders as was the case when the Sox had Beckett/Lester/Buchholz at the beginning of the season. And it won't be a free agent starter who'll make the rotation top notch - it'll be if/when the kids start breaking thru - hopefully starting with De La Rosa."
I keep on seeing this statement being made, which while true does not disqualify a team from being able to win ballgames. It is wonderful to have a Verlander, Kershaw or Sabbathia type, but winning baseball games is not impossible to do so without a true ace.
Each of Kuroda, Peavy, and Jackson are solid number 2 starters on a playoff contender and are if healthy pretty good bets to be worth 3-4 wins. Yes Peavy has an extensive injury history and Kuroda is ancient, but there peripherals give little reason to fear a degradation of talent.
Peavy's K/9, K%, K/BB, and WHIP were all better than any year he has had since 2009 (though he is becoming more of a fly ball pitcher which is a cause for some concern in the AL East).
Similarly, while Kuroda's k rate did see a small fractional decrease (6.87/9 from 7.17/9), which could likely be the result of facing a DH as opposed to an automatic out non of his other stats really changed from their three year averages.
And lastly, I think we all forget that while Jon Lester has had a pretty awful 18 months, he is still only 28 years old and was in many peoples' opinion one of the top three left handed pitchers in the league as recently as 2 years ago.
Unfortunately, unlike Peavy and Kuroda, Lester's stuff is no longer what it used to be. His peripherals have been steadily declining for three seasons and he will likely never be the guy he once was or the guy we had hoped him to become. But with that said, we can not let our disappointment at the loss of what could have been mar reality. In 2012 Jon Lester had a FIP of 4.11 and an X FIP of 3.82 good for a 3.3 WAR. There is still a good pitcher there, even if he is no longer an ace.
So my point is that a rotation of three number two starters (Peavy, Lester, Buchholz (I think he is the guy we saw in the second half, and his first few starts skew his 2012 stat line so much that they are not really worth using in order to project going forward.). Followed by a combination of Doubront (He is league average at the moment, but could certainly become better), Lackey (who knows what to expect- maybe we will get some good luck for a change), De La Rosa (you should be excited to watch this guy pitch), and Franklin Morales (I really hope we give him a chance to start). While not inspiring is in reality a pretty good rotation and one that will allow a team with a good offense to win 90 plus games if things break right.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 9, 2012 21:14:21 GMT -5
I think we have to first agree on what it means to contend, before we write off our theoretical chances for next season.
If you feel that be contend we must have a team that on paper is the best in the league , with a bonafide ace, then you are right in believing that can not be done.
However if you lower those expectations to say a contender is a team whose true talent level is that of an 87 win team, who with some luck sneaks into the playoffs then you are incorrect in your assertion that we can not compete.
If we resign Ross and Ortiz, sign one of Peavey / Kuroda / Jackson, and aquire via trade or free agencey a legitimate but not great first basemen (Matt Carpenter / Justin Morneau / Ike davis / Kendrys Morales / Mike Napoli / Andy Laroche) and a simmilarly decent corner outfielder, we would be in an excellent position to "contend".
I will admit that those are a lot of ifs and that the front office should not make any serious sacrifices for tomorrow in order to be more competitive in 2013, but with our payroll flexibility and minor league depth (prospects like Brentz, Britton, Cecchini, KLDC, and so forth) we should be able to make those type of moves and aquire the pieces to be a good but not great team.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 4, 2012 13:38:03 GMT -5
Let me get this straight, in some crazy bizarre alternate - reality where Miami is willing to trade Giancarlo Stanton, you would refuse to trade Xander? Stanton is a 6 Win player right now, Xander could become that, but it is silly to act like that is a guarantee.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 18, 2012 23:38:49 GMT -5
Dmaineah 2 quick points:
1) You do realize that RBI totals are piss-poor method to evaluate players? Whenever an evaluation tool is based on events outside of a players control, that evaluation tool is more than suspect. In 1963 a decent hitter named Yastrzemski only had 68 RBI's followed by 67 in 64, 72 in 65, and 72 again in 1968.
2) You do realize that Ike Davis is on pace to drive in 90 runs this year. So according your logic he is better than Yaz was in all but six of his seasons.
Anyways, back to the interesting discussion;
I would certainly like to see the Sox explore acquiring Davis from the Mets. He certainly has his share of question marks between possible health issues (I don't know how long Valley Fever affects a person), his FB% and IFFB% has jumped this season, his HR/FB is possibly a few points inflated, and he started the season in slump that lasted a few months.
However with that said, he has a solid pedigree, was successful at every level of the minors, and has shown that he can be capable of being a solid mid-lineup bat in his injury shortened 2011 season and over the past 2 months. Most importantly, he is still only 25 years old and is cheap.
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Brentz
Sept 13, 2012 21:51:33 GMT -5
Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 13, 2012 21:51:33 GMT -5
Holy 1996 Batman! Are we using Runs Batted In as a way to evaluate players? Quick let's see if Seattle would consider trading us Kyle Seager for Dustin Pedroia.
And as an aside we should start a petition to force MLB to strip Pedro Martinez of his 1997 NL Cy Young Award in order to give it to the deserved winner Danny Neagle. Jesh, Neagle had a whole three more wins than Pedro, how the writers even thought of giving it to Pedro is insane.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 13, 2012 14:36:46 GMT -5
1) Xander Bogaerts 2) Jackie Bradley Jr 3) Matt Barnes 4) Allan Webster 5) Jose Iglesias 6) Bryce Brentz 7) Garin Cecchinni 8) Blake Swihart 9) Henry Owens 10) Keury De La Cruz 11) Drake Britton 12) Devin Marrero 13) Brian Johnson 14) Brandon Jacobs 15) Stolmy Pimentel 16) Anthony Ranaudo 17) Jose Vicinio 18) Brandon Workman 19) Alex Wilson 20) Ty Buttrey 21) Pat Light 22) Tzu-Wei Lin 23) Frank Montas 24) Jaimie Callahan 25) Christian Vazques 26) Travis Shaw 27) Jeremy Hazelbaker 28) Ivan De Jesus 29) Chris Carpenter 30) Cody Kukuk 31) Juan Carlos Linares 32) Mauro Gomez 33) Josh Fields 34) Chris Hernandez 35) Sean Coyle 36) Mickey Pena 37) Austin Maddux 38) Noe Ramirez 39) Manuel Margot 40) Alixon Suarez
The Next 10 in no particular order: Will Inman Michael Olmstead Aaron Kurcz Che-Lin Dan Buttler Alex Hassan William Cuevas Kieth Couch Brock Huntzinger Jose De La Torre
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 13, 2012 13:15:37 GMT -5
Just to to tag along on what jmei already said, the package you described would probably be about enough to get a guy like Anibal Sanchez.
Doubront- Is useful as a number 5 starter. Beyond that or as a longman in bullpen he really does not offer much. Guys like this are cheap and readily available.
Iglesias- I am about as big of a defender for him as you'll find. I think his bat will just be decent enough for him to maintain an average of about 2.5 WAR per season ( I say average because defensive metrics can be inconsistent and with glove first players I feel like WAR for a single season is kind of meaningless). However he has big question marks, and there are many people who see him as a super backup SS. Regardless Iglesias peak ceiling is that of a guy who is a slightly above average shortstop.
Weiland- Thanks for the laugh. Anyways, he will likely never be more than a guy that a team stashes in AAA for emergency starts and hopes that they rarely need. Otherwise don't be surprised when he is the Astros third starter.
Brentz- Finally a guy who has a ceiling above fringe complimentary piece and slightly above average. If all things break right, and he learns to better control the plate, increase his walks and cut down on his k's; Brentz could be a 30 HR gut with an OBP of around .340 while playing average defense. But that is a very hopeful projection. And the guy has a ton of questions marks like how does a 25% K rate in AAA look like in the MLB?
Not only does this offer get refused, I doubt Seattle would answer the phone when you called back latter.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 8, 2012 12:25:26 GMT -5
Sarasoxer;
1) Our current team has played terribly, but how does that reflect on this teams ability to draft. Yes teams that draft poorly often struggle to have good MLB squads, but this is not always the case. Nor is the draft the only path to success ie: The Phillies). Bad contracts, under-performing veterans, a cultural malaise in the clubhouse, lack of flexibility forcing management to overpay for relievers, and a mountain of bad luck is why we had such a terrible season.
2) Our best prospect will almost certainly be a top 25 prospect according to other lists. Aside from that, these lists while fun, do little to actually show the value or predict the future success of individual prospects.
But if you want to base you opinions on the state of the our Farm system on what one guy thinks, I would recommend going with someone who does not think that Kolbin Vitek is a significantly better prospect than Henry Owens or one that ranks Bryce Brentz and Jorge Soler similarly.
You are right that we have underperformed other teams in the IFA market, but it is not like we doing nothing in that market. We may not be the Rangers, but we still sign highly talented youth from LA and Asia. I just think that we are less willing to place high stakes bets on the big prospects because there is no way accurately project 16 year olds. Going forward this will likely be a strength.
3) Where does this list rank Anthony Rizzo, Miles Head, and Casey Kelly.? If the A-Gon deal never happens we have 7 players (no Webster) in the top one hundred- which is odd because one would reasonably expect every team to have 3.3 prospects in the top 100.
4) Are you seriously pointing out the records of our Minor League affiliates?
5) I thought we were talking about the draft and our minor league system.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 7, 2012 13:04:18 GMT -5
You got to love a list that ranks Hak Ju Lee ahead of Anthony Rendon and Yasmani Grandal. Also I am not quite sure what to make of them leaving Jorge Soler at 77. I would take him over most of the outfielders on the list without thinking twice.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 4, 2012 16:34:01 GMT -5
"Put a pin in this, it'll be interesting when Crawford/Gonzo/Beckett combine for 10 WAR with the Dodgers next year. "
Which according to Fangraphs' WAR value calculator would only be worth 45 million dollars on the Free Agent market. While the Dodgers are still on the hook for an additional 17 million (3 wins).
Even if Gonzalez plays like he can and should. And if Beckett returns to being a useful starting pitcher and Crawford can return to being an All-star this deal would still be a slam dunk success for the Sox.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 4, 2012 12:06:00 GMT -5
Here is a list of 5 shortstops on playoff contending teams (and the Blue Jays) who despite having OBP% below .300 have been useful contributors to their team's success. The WAR totals are based on ZIPS end of year projections for each player.
Zach Cozart OBP: .285 WRC+: 82 WAR: 2.6 (Has plus power for SS .402 SLG and .160 ISO) JJ Hardy OBP: .276 WRC+: 73 WAR: 2.3 (Has plus power for SS .384SLG and .153 ISO) Alexi Ramirez OBP .293 WRC+ 76 WAR: 2.0 Yunel Escobar: OBP .298 WRC+ 74 WAR: 2.1 Brendan Ryan OBP: .281 WRC+ 59 WAR: 1.5
Seeing that Iglesias is likely better defensively than most of those guys, the offensive bar that he needs to reach in order to be a viable starting shortstop is pretty low.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Sept 2, 2012 23:58:41 GMT -5
Nice job with the new board. At the very least, you can count me as a fan of the change as now there is no record of how vehemently I urged other posters to stop freaking out about the Adrian Gonzalez to the Dodgers rumors as my brilliant opinion was that a player being claimed on revocable waivers was simply a "non-story" to be ignored.
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