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Pedroia and Red Sox have agreed in principle on extension
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Post by bluechip on Jul 23, 2013 14:08:53 GMT -5
[ I don't like the deal. I love Pedroia, but I've never looked at the guy and seen anything but a player who's body is going to be completely spent by the time he's 32. We'll see. Why? He is not a big fat slugger (the guys who typically get 100 million and inevitably disappoint) or and outfielder who goes running into walls.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 23, 2013 14:31:45 GMT -5
[ I don't like the deal. I love Pedroia, but I've never looked at the guy and seen anything but a player who's body is going to be completely spent by the time he's 32. We'll see. Why? He is not a big fat slugger (the guys who typically get 100 million and inevitably disappoint) or and outfielder who goes running into walls. A) He may not run into walls, but that's about the only thing he doesn't run into. Headfirst slides into first, diving on every groundball he's within fifteen feet of, takeout plays at second base... he plays with as much reckless abandon as any player I've seen. B) Second baseman have a terrible record of staying healthy/productive past age 30 in general. They might actually be worst than fat sluggers in this regard. The list of recent (ie, the last three decades or so) second basemen who were any good in their 30s is basically Kent, Whitaker, Grich, and... let me know if you think of another one. Playing the middle infield, particularly second, is tough on guys, plus second basemen usually don't have a ton of athleticism to start with or any real position they can move to (they don't have the arm for third, the range for short, or the size for first). C) He's hurt every year. Usually it's some kind of hand injury that he tries to play through with varying levels of success; he also had the pin in his foot. And he's done a remarkable job staying on the field in spite of that, but those injuries don't just go away. The man is carrying around a ton of physical debt and sooner or later it's going to catch up to him. D) He's a righty hitter, and since a loss of batspeed tends to hurt players more when facing same-handed pitching, righty bats don't age as well. Seriously, I love the player. But between his size, style of play, position, injury history, and handedness, you'd be hard pressed to design a player more likely to fall apart in his early 30s.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2013 14:37:44 GMT -5
I never really understood the significance of so-called "old player skills." To me, it seems like almost every skill other than plate discipline gets worse with age-- loss of bat speed hurts the hit tool and the power tool, loss of athleticism/speed hurts range on defense, BABIP, and baserunning, and age in general hurts durability.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2013 14:40:39 GMT -5
B) Second baseman have a terrible record of staying healthy/productive past age 30 in general. They might actually be worst than fat sluggers in this regard. The list of recent (ie, the last three decades or so) second basemen who were any good in their 30s is basically Kent, Whitaker, Grich, and... let me know if you think of another one. Playing the middle infield, particularly second, is tough on guys, plus second basemen usually don't have a ton of athleticism to start with or any real position they can move to (they don't have the arm for third, the range for short, or the size for first). This is standard gospel, but there is some contravening evidence: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-will-chase-utley-age/
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Post by jdb on Jul 23, 2013 14:41:36 GMT -5
Anybody who doesn't like this deal needs to wait and compare it to whatever Cano gets.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 23, 2013 14:41:47 GMT -5
Love it. Sends a nice little message for the youngins in the organization too, hard work truly pays off.
Not that the Red Sox are paying that much to send a message. Just that is a nice little added bonus.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2013 14:44:43 GMT -5
Anybody who doesn't like this deal needs to wait and compare it to whatever Cano gets. Not really, Cano will be a free agent. Completely different situation.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 23, 2013 14:48:09 GMT -5
Anybody who doesn't like this deal needs to wait and compare it to whatever Cano gets. Not really, Cano will be a free agent. Completely different situation. I think that's the point. Lock him up ahead of time for cheaper. It's the whole reason they did this.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 23, 2013 14:51:23 GMT -5
B) Second baseman have a terrible record of staying healthy/productive past age 30 in general. .... The list of recent (ie, the last three decades or so) second basemen who were any good in their 30s is basically Kent, Whitaker, Grich, and... let me know if you think of another one. Biggio of course. Scutaro had to move off short but has been resilient at second. Alomar hit a wall at 34. Todd Walker done at 34. Placido Polanco petered off at 35. Knoblauch had mental problems but done at 33. Castillo done at 34. Bret Boone was solid through age 35. Chase Utley is still kickin. So I think it's fair to expect Pedroia to be productive (production > salary) over the first half of the extension.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2013 14:53:00 GMT -5
It's only cheaper if Pedroia continues to stay healthy and play as well as he has. Yes, the Red Sox paid less than the free market rate for Pedroia today, but they paid it two years in advance. If in those two years, Pedroia declines or suffers significant injury, the Red Sox might have been able to re-sign him after 2015 for less than six years, $90m.
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Post by nothingball on Jul 23, 2013 14:56:54 GMT -5
Yeah, i'd say that the 2nd base market is currently being established by Pedey and Cano. In 5 months or so we will certainly call this a steal, regardless of the free agency/extension situation. I also wonder how much organizations can use Pedey's new deal as a launching point against, can't believe im saying this, Jayz/RocNation... However, in then end i'm sure someone will grossly overpay.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2013 15:00:39 GMT -5
Not really, Cano will be a free agent. Completely different situation. I think that's the point. Lock him up ahead of time for cheaper. It's the whole reason they did this. Cano stayed healthy and is performing in his walk year, Pedroia would still have to do that the next two seasons. I thought the FO new strategy was to sacrifice AAV savings in exchange for less years. Sure, it's the fan favorite, but now that just goes out the window? They had no money on the books long term, I'd rather they DID pay more money in the long term while keeping the option of not re-signing him for 2016 and beyond if he started to break down/decline the next two seasons. If they were going to commit long term either way sure, save the money now...but they could've chose to let him walk as well. I don't hate this deal, it's fair market value and I love Pedroia, but there's a lot of risk here. EDIT: Fair market value meaning for a player 2+ years from FA. Point of reference being Kinsler's extension.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 23, 2013 15:05:40 GMT -5
B) Second baseman have a terrible record of staying healthy/productive past age 30 in general. .... The list of recent (ie, the last three decades or so) second basemen who were any good in their 30s is basically Kent, Whitaker, Grich, and... let me know if you think of another one. Biggio of course. Scutaro had to move off short but has been resilient at second. Alomar hit a wall at 34. Todd Walker done at 34. Placido Polanco petered off at 35. Knoblauch had mental problems but done at 33. Castillo done at 34. Bret Boone was solid through age 35. Chase Utley is still kickin. So I think it's fair to expect Pedroia to be productive (production > salary) over the first half of the extension. Those were a lot of the guys i was going to mention. Ray Durham was good into his mid 30s as well. Ryne Sandberg was good, then hurt, then bounced back as serviceable. If you go back to the 1980s, Joe Morgan. Really, second base is a weak position for a lot of teams, so that may have to do with few great second basemen in their 30s (because there are fewer good second basemen in their 20s). Of course this is all anecdotal. If you can find a scientific study on aging trends across positions, I'd love to read it.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 23, 2013 15:07:13 GMT -5
B) Second baseman have a terrible record of staying healthy/productive past age 30 in general. They might actually be worst than fat sluggers in this regard. The list of recent (ie, the last three decades or so) second basemen who were any good in their 30s is basically Kent, Whitaker, Grich, and... let me know if you think of another one. Playing the middle infield, particularly second, is tough on guys, plus second basemen usually don't have a ton of athleticism to start with or any real position they can move to (they don't have the arm for third, the range for short, or the size for first). This is standard gospel, but there is some contravening evidence: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-will-chase-utley-age/Is it worth noting that Chase Utley has largely fallen apart since that article was written? The model for a successful old 2B is basically Kent/Grich/Whitaker, maybe Biggo, maybe Morgan, maybe Carew (maybe because of era/played other positions considerations, plus Morgan was one of the 20 best players ever, so he's a whole different animal in that regard). And again, beyond the second base thing, there's a whole list of issues specific to Pedroia having to do with his size, style of play, injury history, etc.
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Post by jmei on Jul 23, 2013 15:13:37 GMT -5
Chase Utley has been injured a lot, but when he's on the field, his play is as good as it ever was. I know that injuries are a large part of the risk with Pedroia, but he hasn't quite had the chronic knee issues that Utley has had to deal with. I agree with you on the list of issues specific to Pedroia, but I think the general trope of "second basemen age poorly" is probably exaggerated.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jul 23, 2013 15:14:14 GMT -5
No problem with this deal. 2B is an extremely shallow position, and salaries will continue to explode over the next 5 years. This deal is barely more than the Kinsler deal, with them being almost identical offensively, and Petey getting the nod defensively.
Plus, teams are handing out money like it's nothing, and if you have to "overpay" to keep guys that you know you need, you do it. They've got almost nothing committed for the next 5+ years. With the new money in the game, teams are more likely to lock up their young stars. Less chance of getting someone without massively overpaying in FA means you take a smaller chance on a home grown guy and be thrilled with it
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Post by bluechip on Jul 23, 2013 15:15:19 GMT -5
Is it worth noting that Chase Utley has largely fallen apart since that article was written? The model for a successful old 2B is basically Kent/Grich/Whitaker, maybe Biggo, maybe Morgan, maybe Carew (maybe because of era/played other positions considerations, plus Morgan was one of the 20 best players ever, so he's a whole different animal in that regard). And again, beyond the second base thing, there's a whole list of issues specific to Pedroia having to do with his size, style of play, injury history, etc. He has been hurt a bunch, but has produced fWARs of 3.8, 3.1, and 3.0 (only 2/3s of way through the year obviously). At least according to that stat, he has been roughly producing equal to the pay.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 23, 2013 15:17:07 GMT -5
I thought the FO new strategy was to sacrifice AAV savings in exchange for less years. Let's say they had done that at 4x$20 instead. Then you would have only two more years at $5M each to get to 6 years, $90m total. Or 3x$22M, plus 3 more at $8m. They have years to plan around those end-of-career blues and the lux threshold is (presumably?) only going up.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 23, 2013 15:29:33 GMT -5
I hope he stays healthy and productive at 2b. He is not a good candidate for a future DH spot.
By the way I heard Buch is saying he is targeting a September return? That's unreal for really being sore? 2nd opinion from Dr Andrews the top surgeon in the country? WTF?
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Post by rismith on Jul 23, 2013 15:32:31 GMT -5
Good guy. Clubhouse leader. Known commodity for next 4 years. The money is fair and the club can handle it. The question is....when he is 34/35 and hitting .270 with 5 hrs and playing good defense but with lesser range and you still have him for 4 more years....but you are forced to deal a Mookie Betts or some other 23 year old stud because you have no place to play him...how do you justify that?
I would rather have gone 3 years at 21 per and had flexibility 4 years from now. I like the overpay but shorter on years strategy.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 23, 2013 15:33:34 GMT -5
I thought the FO new strategy was to sacrifice AAV savings in exchange for less years. Let's say they had done that at 4x$20 instead. Then you would have only two more years at $5M each to get to 6 years, $90m total. Or 3x$22M, plus 3 more at $8m. They have years to plan around those end-of-career blues and the lux threshold is (presumably?) only going up. I wasn't talking about the strategy in reference to the length of the extension, if they were going to extend him the length is appropriate. I'm talking in reference to guaranteeing those years now rather than making him earn it the next two years in hopes of saving money long term. I'd rather risk those long term savings and reserve the right to not guarantee him anything for 2016+ right now. People rightfully cite how much financial flexibility the Red Sox have right now, but to me that's all the more reason to not rush into these deals with veterans. If Pedroia stayed healthy and performed the next two years and earned a 5-6 year deal at $20m per and they lost $4-6m in AAV vs. this current extension it wouldn't have been the end of the world. He certainly could've earned even more than that with the way baseball is going, but he could also have an injury and have his skills diminish too. I just don't like assuming long term risk unless it's a slam dunk, and this is simply fair and not a slam dunk.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 23, 2013 15:35:19 GMT -5
$14 million just doesn't seem like it will be such a burden that it will handicap the team in either keeping or signing other players, even if Pedroia ages faster than slower. He really only needs to be about a 2.5 WAR player per year to earn the deal, and even if he's not an above average player anymore by 2021, he should provide enough value in the deal to make the money worth it.
In the risk/reward game, the risk just doesn't seem high enough to get worked up about this. Pedroia is an outstanding player now, and will likely be a pretty good one for awhile. Dan Uggla, Mark Ellis, Marco Scutaro, Jamey Carroll were all 2.0+ fWAR players last year, and none of them were the player at their peak that Pedroia is.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 23, 2013 15:36:39 GMT -5
Good luck MFY'S with Cano's deal, he is carrying that team this year. He could ask for Arod money and not blink! I wonder what JAY-Z gonna do.
I 'd say 10 at 225. So AAV is about (22.5).
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 23, 2013 15:37:22 GMT -5
It's only cheaper if Pedroia continues to stay healthy and play as well as he has. Yes, the Red Sox paid less than the free market rate for Pedroia today, but they paid it two years in advance. If in those two years, Pedroia declines or suffers significant injury, the Red Sox might have been able to re-sign him after 2015 for less than six years, $90m. Sure, but that's true of every contract ever. There's a certain amount of risk involved for the team, but there's a risk in not doing it, as well. I'm fine with the allocation of risk on signing him now ... Longer term is a separate issue. I lean toward FTHW's position that Dustin is just beating his body every day with the way he plays, and he may age pretty quickly. I like the AAV of this deal, but it's still pretty high if it's deadweight for 2-3 years. But, he's also a maniacal worker who keeps himself in shape, probably all year long. I have a pet theory that the importance of never getting out of shape is underrated when thinking of longevity of players. In the end, I think there's a value in erring on the side of assuming a little more risk with your core leadership guys. It doesn't mean sign a bunch of albatross contracts to a group of players, but identifying one player (or at most two) who means more to your team than just his performance and assuming a little more risk with the contract than you normally would. adding: Meant to finish by saying, "as long as the yearly expense isn't a total albatross amount, and this isn't. The Sox can carry the deadweight if totally necessary, especially since we're thinking in 2013 dollars/cap but this is actually relevant in dollars/cap years down the road.
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jimoh
Veteran
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Post by jimoh on Jul 23, 2013 15:46:52 GMT -5
Chase Utley has been injured a lot, but when he's on the field, his play is as good as it ever was. I.... Utley had a 922 OPS from ages 26-30 and briefly was Rogers Hornsby. He had a 1000+ OPS this June, but from age 30 on he's had an 811 OPS. His play is not "as good as it ever was." I think we are giving Pedroia a $25M salary for a few years and deferring almost half of it.
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