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Pedroia and Red Sox have agreed in principle on extension
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Post by soxfan06 on Jul 24, 2013 12:02:17 GMT -5
About a month ago I looked at Pedroia contract and thought it was perfect for the organization. This extension is three years to long. Length reminds me of Crawford contract for a 30 yr. old. Sox are going to eat last two years of this deal ($28 Million). He'll basically be paid $20 million per year for five hopefully productive years and amortize it, from his perspective, over seven years. Realistically, what kind of deal would a 32 year old Pedroia have received on the free agent market and would it have beat what the Red Sox would have paid him two years from now. Phenomenal work by Dustin's agent. Red Sox not so much. I think you are DRASTICALLY underselling the market value of Pedroia. He would easily get $18per on the open market.
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Post by nysoxfan on Jul 24, 2013 13:24:30 GMT -5
About a month ago I looked at Pedroia contract and thought it was perfect for the organization. This extension is three years to long. Length reminds me of Crawford contract for a 30 yr. old. Sox are going to eat last two years of this deal ($28 Million). He'll basically be paid $20 million per year for five hopefully productive years and amortize it, from his perspective, over seven years. Realistically, what kind of deal would a 32 year old Pedroia have received on the free agent market and would it have beat what the Red Sox would have paid him two years from now. Phenomenal work by Dustin's agent. Red Sox not so much. I think you are DRASTICALLY underselling the market value of Pedroia. He would easily get $18per on the open market. Agreed, you are also paying to not compete for his services. Obviously there's risk extending anybody due to potential regression and/or injury, but (even given his injury history of being a little banged up here and there, playing through it or otherwise) if he hits the open market you're paying market value for what he actually brings your team, PLUS whatever additional cost of doing business against interested competition shifting the supply:demand paradigm. In some ways this is really just the nature of any long contract, in my opinion, and I think this reminds me more of the deal Jeter signed a few years ago than it does of Crawford. At least this way we cut off 2 years from this deal, up the AAV he makes over those years, and add on a few years to our control of the player at that cost to the VERY end of his likely productive years. If you're looking to sign him when 32, it's likely that his asking price is similar in nature, but 2 years later and then you're saying absolutely no way can you get any real ROI on that contract. So, no, you may not sign him to a 5 year deal as a 32 year old, but you may say yes (and jump at) 7 years as a 30 year old because of the ability to guarantee you have him until that season and not needing to deal with potential competitors. Not to mention this is pedroia, not Mike Lowell and not Josh Becket. He's not falling apart at the seams, he's not a prema donna; he's the team leader. There's something to be said for locking him up and not having to talk about his impending contract situation again until his twilight. IMO, every player should look to do what Peddy did, or should look to line up contracts to get 2 big paydays between age 28 and 28 (I argue if you're coming off your rookie deal out of college and you're in that age 28 kind of range, you should really sign a 3 year deal cause at 30 you have a better chance to get a 5 year deal for same AAV -- and you can get major overpay on a 3-year deal on the front end so if you blowup maybe you made an extra $5mil/year -- than you do to get a 5 year deal now and a 3 year deal for more than that on the backend (i.e. a 3 year deal at 32/33). So I think pedroia did it right, he kind of split the difference and said "I don't have enough leverage to get me to the Arod type deal, so I'll make sure I get paid and stay in Boston long term but it's not excessive" and it seems it was relatively pain-free. Basically this is what my dad wishes every athlete would do and thinks the rest of them are spoiled, entitled, selfish bums; this is the true home town discount, win-win scenario.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2013 13:49:58 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier Pedroia deal: $1M bonus, 2014-15 $12.5M, 2016 $13M, 2017 $15M, 2018 $16M, 2019 $15M, 2020 $13M, 2021 $12M so $110M over 8 yrs; some $ defer
So the deal actually completely replaces his current deal, and the AAV is south of $14M.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 24, 2013 13:50:58 GMT -5
“@alexspeier: Pedroia deal: $1M bonus, 2014-15 $12.5M, 2016 $13M, 2017 $15M, 2018 $16M, 2019 $15M, 2020 $13M, 2021 $12M so $110M over 8 yrs; some $ defer”
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Post by jmei on Jul 24, 2013 13:51:31 GMT -5
At least this way we cut off 2 years from this deal, up the AAV he makes over those years, and add on a few years to our control of the player at that cost to the VERY end of his likely productive years. If you're looking to sign him when 32, it's likely that his asking price is similar in nature, but 2 years later and then you're saying absolutely no way can you get any real ROI on that contract. So, no, you may not sign him to a 5 year deal as a 32 year old, but you may say yes (and jump at) 7 years as a 30 year old because of the ability to guarantee you have him until that season and not needing to deal with potential competitors. This makes no sense. The Red Sox already had very cheap team control for the next two years. Signing him to this extension two years in advance shifts the risk of underperformance to the Red Sox (presumably in return for a cheaper AAV than Pedroia would ask for in two years). I agree that the Red Sox are paying less than they would have paid for a healthy/productive Pedroia if they'd waited until he was a free agent to re-sign him. I just think that it is more likely than not that Pedroia suffers injury/performance declines within the next two years that would have made re-signing him at that point less of a slam dunk, and would have preferred a wait-and-see approach.
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Post by ray88h66 on Jul 24, 2013 13:58:04 GMT -5
Live press conference going on now on NESN. Pedroia and Cherington taking questions.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 24, 2013 14:45:51 GMT -5
Here's what I wrote in the forum "Sox talking long-term extension with Pedroia" a few days ago: . Post by taftreign on Jul 20, 2013 at 12:58am Its easy to get caught up in the 100M price tag, which is significant, but the reality is the way to truly judge this deal will be in the detail of how it's structured. If the team increases his 2014 10 mil and 2015 11 mil option years with a more significant $ amount in the 16 to 17 mil range in exchange for a few team friendly years at the end of the contract it isn't all that bad an idea. You also have to remember with the trend of teams signing their young talent to significant long term high dollar deals vs spending it on free agency its not all that unlikely that in 3 years the qualifying offer itself could be in the 16 to 17 mil dollar range and by the end of the contract closer to 18 mil per range. So in reality giving Pedroia close to 20 mil at its peak isn't relatively expensive if its within range of the qualifying offer. I still feel fairly strong about the next 3 years of production so the question becomes how many years past that should the team be willing to risk "being stuck" with an overpriced contract. If the new deal is for 100 mil or so for the years of 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 with a team option and buyout for 2019 its not all bad. Something like 15 mil, 16 mil, 18 mil, 18 mil, 17 mil, 16 mil with a 5 mil buyout. That's 100 mil for 6 years or 89 mil for 5 years with the buy out. Have to figure its close to what he would get with a qualifying offer at that time anyway and it would be tough to at least not offer him one. Not many players are willing to take less in the end years as contracts continue to escalate but I think if the team gives a little more up front he would be willing. Read more: soxprospects.proboards.com/thread/1033/talking-long-term-extension-pedroia?page=2#ixzz2ZzexPuxmCan't say I can argue with the configuration of the deal based on what I wrote prior. Only difference is two more years and a slightly lower annual salary each year. Would have preferred less years and I still would have liked to see a buyout option in the last year of the deal but it's probably hard to ask that of your team icon. Overall though a friendly deal for both. Risky yes but that is really the case for any contract with injury potential and decline. Still with inflation and the cost of the qualifying offer going up these figures are all palatable. Boston is one of the few teams that could afford to eat $12 or $13 mil if needed. We basically did it with Lackey last season.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 24, 2013 14:49:00 GMT -5
“@timbritton: Source: Pedroia's salary will decrease in the final years of the deal. Didn't want to be an albatross to the team.”
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 24, 2013 14:55:25 GMT -5
“@timbritton: Source: Pedroia's salary will decrease in the final years of the deal. Didn't want to be an albatross to the team.” Noticed this. Not sure how unusual it is, but kudos to Pedey and his team for going with this. However, it also increases the likelihood that he'll perform enough in those years that the Sox won't feel the need to find a team he'll waive his no-trade to go to. It also gives them a few more dollars in those years to start to lock up guys like Xander and Cecchini, assuming they pan out and warrant getting locked up. Great deal all around for the Sox, and I think Pedroia, too. He won't get top dollar, but will make $100mill to stay in Boston where he clearly loves playing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 24, 2013 14:55:52 GMT -5
Alex Speier @alexspeier Pedroia: A no-brainer to me... I'm not here to set markets... I'm here to win more games than the other second basemen
So am I the only one that immediately interpreted this as a dig at Papelbon? Admittedly, could just be that the question asked about setting the market for second basemen and he was responding to that.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 24, 2013 14:59:31 GMT -5
Sounds like a Belichick kind of player. I wonder if he can catch passes out of the backfield?
Seriously, are he and Brady twins? They seem to be saying the same things
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 24, 2013 15:22:45 GMT -5
Bottom line I believe this will work out for both teams. For the record in my life time the top 3 best deals for the Sox was number 3 Manny for the length and price they actually got there money's worth and then traded him for Bay and did pretty good on that one by playing it out and letting him go. Number 2 is Pedro again they got every penny from him and cash out in time. The best one was Big Papi he was always underpaid until these recent ones. I mean now it's equal but for a while the Sox got very good value I mean they gave him a truck because they got over on him. The 3 worst deals to me. 3 Lugo, I hated the signing. 2 Is a tie between (Renteria,Drew and Beckett last deal), number 1 Crawford, He didn't play for 2 years and he blamed the Sox on the way out. (Lackey would be be he looks to redeem himself.) I sure there's more but these stand out.
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Post by rismith on Jul 24, 2013 15:24:26 GMT -5
Maybe it is a year or two too long but keep in mind inflation and the cost isn't bad in those last two years. Great face for the org. Great recruiter. Overall solid move.
Now how does the deal and Pedey's quotes make Elsbury look? Elsbury/Boras look to set market. Will Cherington offer a similar deal to Els? Will he say "Elsbury is the kind of guy we would make an exception for..." in terms of length. I doubt it.
To me this means Elsbury is gone. JBrad is our CF next year with Victorino flanking him. If WMB regains his 3B job maybe XB in left with Nava and Gomes as the subs.
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Post by jmei on Jul 24, 2013 15:32:04 GMT -5
Yeah, in the end, I spilled a lot of ink in this thread, but it's not that bad of a deal. The Red Sox are one of the few teams who can afford to overpay a little for a franchise icon who is universally adored and admired.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 24, 2013 17:18:23 GMT -5
...and they can also very much afford to give him a ridiculously team friendly below-market contract, which he apparently demands in every negotiation.
I also don't buy this, "Boy, this sure makes Ells/Pap/etc look bad!" nonsense. I love Pedroia, deeply, but how much is playing in Boston worth to him? 20m? 30m? 50m? There's a point where "loyalty" to a corporation who is only loyal to you until the point where you stop performing becomes foolishness.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 24, 2013 17:37:33 GMT -5
12:06 Comment From WillWith a little time to reflect, do you regret any of the decisions you made with the trade value series. Would you change it at all today if you were asked to update it? 12:06 Dave Cameron: Pedroia would go up a few spots now that he’s signed a team friendly extension. But that’s about it. 12:10 Comment From DrewWhat’s your gut feeling on where Cano goes and for how much? I say NYY at 7/135. 12:11 Dave Cameron: He’ll get a lot more than that. I’d say NYY at 8/200. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-chat-72413/
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wcp3
Veteran
Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 25, 2013 9:28:04 GMT -5
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Post by okin15 on Jul 25, 2013 10:21:31 GMT -5
I almost feel bad for PD with this contract. Kinda wish there were some escalators for the later years in case he's still playing at an all-star level.
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 25, 2013 11:18:59 GMT -5
I almost feel bad for PD with this contract. Kinda wish there were some escalators for the later years in case he's still playing at an all-star level. Right, PD is going to be making 60 % or so of a 100 million bucks over the next 8 years without even counting what he will make on endorsements now that he is the Face of the Sox. I don't feel sorry for him in fact I think he will invest enough of the Money (he shows he is smart enough to get what he wants) to live comfortably his entire life kind of like Gator did with his (lesser) monies from his glory years that he invested to keep on making enough for life! The smarter athletes seem to find ways to enjoy life and not look like baboons to the rest of the world!
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 25, 2013 11:23:50 GMT -5
I feel kind of silly now for trying to apply logic to Pedroia's thinking here. He literally did not want the Red Sox to pay him more than they did. He probably wanted less and they felt bad and said no. He is a truly unique person/athlete and hey, who am I to judge.
The MLBA must want to decapitate him, though.
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Post by jmei on Jul 25, 2013 11:35:19 GMT -5
I almost feel bad for PD with this contract. Kinda wish there were some escalators for the later years in case he's still playing at an all-star level. The chances of Dustin Pedroia playing at an All-Star level between ages 35-38 are pretty low.
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 25, 2013 17:47:51 GMT -5
I almost feel bad for PD with this contract. Kinda wish there were some escalators for the later years in case he's still playing at an all-star level. The chances of Dustin Pedroia playing at an All-Star level between ages 35-38 are pretty low. So then maybe we should move him to shortstop and "him and jeter" could play with each other there for years all the while making it to the all stars!!!!
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 25, 2013 23:08:21 GMT -5
@mlb_FaceSwap
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 26, 2013 9:08:58 GMT -5
You know who's pissed that kid from the Reds.
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