Pedroia and Red Sox have agreed in principle on extension

About a month ago I looked at Pedroia contract and thought it was perfect for the organization. This extension is three years to long. Length reminds me of Crawford contract for a 30 yr. old.  Sox are going to eat last two years of this deal ($28 Million). He'll basically be paid $20 million per year for five hopefully productive years and amortize it, from his perspective, over seven years.

Realistically, what kind of deal would a 32 year old Pedroia have received on the free agent market and would it have beat what the Red Sox would have paid him two years from now. Phenomenal work by Dustin's agent. Red Sox not so much.

Cano is probably going to get $200 to $240 million.

That sounds easy to do, but because the trade market is rather illiquid (because there are only 29 other GMs, most of whom won't be interested in a given prospect at any given time, GMs are risk adverse, etc.), it can often be hard getting fair value for a blocked prospect.

That's one of my problems with the "long but lower AAV"-type deals. Even if Pedroia outperforms his AAV enough in the early stages of the deal that the deal looks justified as a whole, you still have an aging "franchise icon" who takes up a roster spot and will need at-bats. There will be significant pressure to keep him on the roster (because you want him to be a Red Sox lifer-- that was the whole point of the deal in the first place), even though a team might have better alternatives in the farm system or on the free agent market. I would much rather have this deal be a four-year $80m extension than a six-year $90m extension because I think even if Pedroia beats the odds and is still "worth" $5m when he's entering his late-30s (which I very much doubt will happen, by the way), his presence on the roster will tie the front office's hands and make it difficult for them to upgrade the position internally or externally. It's the idea that a team only has 25 slots to upgrade from, and if one of them is blocked off, it makes it that much more difficult to field the best team possible.

Maybe but you could make a case that in 4 years Pedey is not remotely the same guy and Mookie is a 24 year old stud and you don't want to trade away a Hanley (with better attitude) type kid because you are stuck with an aging veteran for 3 more years.  Fun to debate but bottom line is hopefully Pedey is solid for 4-5 more years and with inflation the Sox could handle his contract and make him a super sub utility or platoon him at that point.

Honestly, I think if Pedey stinks in 5 years...he will retire before hurting the team. 

Moving on...now what does this mean for Jacoby??  Would he take a similar deal?  I doubt it and think this signals the end for him.

where the heck did you get 15.86? 100/7 = 14.28

You're joking right? He's going to be 31 after this season. The only reason I hesitate to say you are completely insane is because there are incredibly wreckless owners out there and GM's who don't give a **** because they won't be around to suffer the results of the god awful contract, but please tell me you are banking on this happening and not thinking he's worth that in any world.

I don't see how a team gives him that type of deal in the current world where pretty much every big deal has turned into a disaster. Pujols didn't even make it the first season before sucking. Cano has been linked. He'll probably go the Pujols route and stop taking them after he signs his big deal to keep his legacy intact. Pujols is a sneaky guy.

I don't think its hate for Pedroia as much as us remembering previous bad contracts that we couldn't wait to get out from under.  We think that at some point in time this is going to be the same although with inflation the way it has been I don't think the $$$ is going to be as bad as people think.  Dustin's regression is another story, I agree in thinking he's going to age poorly.

... and as far as second basemen go there's Pedroia, Cano and a huge chasm.

He wouldn't be expected to be worth zero over the final two years.

Do we expect 20 WAR over 7 seasons? I don't see how you anyone cannot project that. That's worth >100mm.

The Red Sox took on downside risk. That's a contract. Pedroia is being paid for possibly as little as 65% of his expected value. That's the trade off.

That's what GMs are for, to get the most out of their assets, find the right buyer. In this case most teams would love to have a legit major league ready second baseman making the minimum and controlled through his prime years, so the market would likely be healthy.

Don't worry, if Pedroia tanks near the end there's a good chance injuries will play a major role and he'll spend quality time on the 60-day and we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

I have no idea 101/7 is 14.4. Must keyed in something wrong, still 14.4 million avg for the 7 years beginning in 2015.

Pedroia is one that I don't think will have a problem producing throughout this deal even at 35-37 years old.