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First Base in 2013 and beyond
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Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2013 18:49:35 GMT -5
This may have been a thread before, but I thought there should just be a new one.
Napoli's contract ends after this year, and I think that because of his inconsistency, lack of driving in guys in scoring position, and the INSANE amount of strike-outs, I would just let him walk. He strikes out 1 in 2.6 at-bats. To me, that is an unacceptable amount of strike-outs. He already has 145 strike-outs this year. A problem for this year's Red Sox has been strike-outs, as they struggle against high-quality pitching, and in the post-season, there is a lot of it.
So I though we could discuss some 1B options for 2013 and beyond:
Internal:
Re-sign Napoli
Mike Carp
Will Middlebrooks (If Bogaerts goes to 3B)
Best FA Options:
Corey Hart
Paul Konerko
Adam Lind (If club option not exercised)
Kendrys Morales
Mike Morse
Trade Candidates:
Logan Morrison
Lucas Duda
Matt Adams (A personal favorite of mine and is of now a pinch hitter with no defined role)
Tyler Moore
I can't really think of that many trade options... Reply for any input
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Aug 6, 2013 20:03:21 GMT -5
My sense is that 1B will depend largely on how they view CF, SS, 3B, and LF.
I think you have to assume Bogaerts starts at SS and Bradley at CF, which would mean you'll probably want veteran protection in at least two of the other three positions.
With little on the 3B market, you could bet on Middlebrooks, and, assuming Cecchini is at Pawtucket, back him up with Holt and/or Snyder again as insurance.
That puts pressure on getting somewhat steady, dependable options in LF and 1B. If Ellsbury is gone, and you're leaning on three young guys, will the troika of Napoli, Carp, and Nava cut it? I'd rather go after Hart and Choo, assuming the former checks out physically. That adds consistent, two-way players, R and L batters to three kids with outstanding two-way potential, R,R, and L batters. You have balance on both sides of the ball, up and down the line up, and let your kids contribute.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 6, 2013 20:19:54 GMT -5
I would love Matt Adams, but I have a feeling the Cards will probably be asking an awful lot for him.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 6, 2013 20:35:31 GMT -5
Sign whichever free agent doesn't get a qualifying offer.
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Aug 6, 2013 21:01:53 GMT -5
Seriously, I want to give the everyday job to Carp. He's done nothing to say that he can't do it and he has a very pretty swing. He should be playing more and have an everyday job somewhere if not with the Sox.
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Post by bigpupp on Aug 6, 2013 21:06:27 GMT -5
Seriously, I want to give the everyday job to Carp. He's done nothing to say that he can't do it and he has a very pretty swing. He should be playing more and have an everyday job somewhere if not with the Sox. Carp is striking out almost 31% of the time. The only reason we don't hate him as much as Napoli is because he bats less often. |
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Aug 6, 2013 21:22:50 GMT -5
Seriously, I want to give the everyday job to Carp. He's done nothing to say that he can't do it and he has a very pretty swing. He should be playing more and have an everyday job somewhere if not with the Sox. Carp is striking out almost 31% of the time. The only reason we don't hate him as much as Napoli is because he bats less often. I don't care how much he strikes out because it really can't be worse than Napoli (who I think RedSoxNation generally likes because of the fact that he sees so many pitches and often works with 2 strikes, hence the strikeout ##'s). He is hitting over .300 and has been slugging in the .550 to .600 range. He can hit the other way and he just hits the ball hard whenever he doesn't strikeout. |
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Post by kman22 on Aug 6, 2013 22:01:40 GMT -5
Not that they are looking to move him, but I'd love to get Dickerson from the Pirates as a long-term solution.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 6, 2013 22:35:10 GMT -5
With the solid pitching depth at the upper levels of the farm system it would be tempting to have Brian Johnson as a 1B prospect. Problem is he is pitching too darn well and his greater value is still as a solid inning eating #4/5.
As for the current option I'd much rather stick with Napoli and Carp then do anything that requires giving up a 1st round pick in FA.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 6, 2013 22:50:16 GMT -5
WMB to start the season.
Keep Nava, Carp and Gomes. They can all play 1B and LF.
Maybe Bryce Brentz surprises us?
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Post by semperfisox on Aug 6, 2013 23:07:07 GMT -5
Hopefully trade for one
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Post by xxdamgoodxx on Aug 7, 2013 0:11:48 GMT -5
Just saying, how much would it suck watching Carp hit bombs over the joke-of-a-right-field-deck that the Yankees have?
EDIT: If Carp was in pinstripes
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Post by bentossaurus on Aug 7, 2013 0:12:29 GMT -5
I've said it once. I'll say it again.
Justin Smoak.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 7, 2013 0:36:18 GMT -5
I've said it once. I'll say it again. Justin Smoak. He's not available, not with the season he's having. Plus, we already traded Jose Iglesias, so there's pretty much no high defense, no bat player on our system for Jack Z to fall in love with. |
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Post by bentossaurus on Aug 7, 2013 1:06:35 GMT -5
I think he's still within reach. Now the other guy I had proposed in the offseason, Domonic Brown, that one is definitely long gone.
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Post by jdb on Aug 7, 2013 9:53:22 GMT -5
I think we fill this via trade. The Mariners will likely give Morales a QO and Smoak isn't going anywhere. He has a .900 OPS since week three.
I would keep an eye on Adams, Ruf, Logan Morrison, Ike Davis, Belt ( I think SF will eventually play Posey more at 1B, Morneau and maybe KC dangles Butler bc they decide they can't pay a DH that much. I do think going young at SS, CF and most likely WMBs at third we need a good option at 1B.
i would also like it if Brentz could get some time there in winter ball and ST to add to his flexibility. I know it may be far fetched but if its looking like he is a 4th OF platoon guy it could help him and us.
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Post by jmei on Aug 7, 2013 9:58:34 GMT -5
Carp is striking out almost 31% of the time. The only reason we don't hate him as much as Napoli is because he bats less often. I don't care how much he strikes out because it really can't be worse than Napoli (who I think RedSoxNation generally likes because of the fact that he sees so many pitches and often works with 2 strikes, hence the strikeout ##'s). He is hitting over .300 and has been slugging in the .550 to .600 range. He can hit the other way and he just hits the ball hard whenever he doesn't strikeout. First, no Red Sox fan really likes Napoli anymore given his contact issues over the past few months. But more importantly, if Carp is just going to be Napoli 2.0 (with fewer walks) once his BABIP regresses, is that enough at 1B? ZiPS ROS has him at .273/.334/.472, which I think is a reasonable projection (maybe a little lower average/OBP, considering his escalating strikeout issues this year). That's solid production, especially considering Carp will only be entering his first year of arbitration in 2014. Let's compare that to a few other free agent ZiPS ROS projections: Carp: .273/.334/.472 Napoli: .249/.345/.469 Loney: .277/.327/.398 Morales: .280/.333/.462 Morneau: .265/.331/.426 Morse: .245/.300/.447 I don't really see anyone who is clearly better than Carp. Maybe I try and find a right-handed compliment to Carp (ideally with some defensive flexibility) who can start at 1B versus lefties. Mike Morse might be a good candidate-- rescuing him from Safeco and into Fenway means we could see a nice bump in his offensive numbers, and he's played both RF and LF (although both defensive stats and scouting reports have him as a butcher in the outfield). Nava works defensively but hits much better versus righties and thus wouldn't work platoon-wise. A dark horse candidate might be Alex Hassan, although he's not great defensively either. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 10:50:11 GMT -5
I don't see how Carp accomplishes this line unless he cuts down on his K's. With a 30.9% K rate he'd have to have an unrealistic BABIP to accomplish a .273 average. I they go with Carp as the front end of a platoon full time, at 1B they are going to be far below average at the position.
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Post by rider on Aug 7, 2013 10:51:22 GMT -5
I would love for them to trade for Ike Davis. He's been pretty bad this year, but as long as the cost wasn't too high I'd love to give him a shot at 1B in Fenway.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 7, 2013 11:01:15 GMT -5
I like the idea of Corey Hart, Konerko, or Mike Morse...but ideally without a QO attached, and for less than 3 yrs. Those stipulations might make Konerko the most likely candidate to sign on a sightly overpriced 1 yr deal. Also, isn't Morneau a free agent? I'd give him a long look. I like Carp as a backup and he would make feel better about an overpay for an older player with moderate to strong injury risk.
I think this is the best spot to add a vet with some offensive upside, especially if you're of the belief that our 2014 starting lineup will consist of young players like Bradley, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and potentially Lavarnway. In other words, this is not the position to trade for a young, unproven talent with some upside like an Ike Davis or Justin Smoak IMO.
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Post by jmei on Aug 7, 2013 11:01:49 GMT -5
I don't see how Carp accomplishes this line unless he cuts down on his K's. With a 30.9% K rate he'd have to have an unrealistic BABIP to accomplish a .273 average. I they go with Carp as the front end of a platoon full time, at 1B they are going to be far below average at the position. ZiPS has him at 24.1% going forward, which is lower than I'd project but not unreasonable considering he struck out at 24.3%, 25.9%, and 19.5% rates the three years prior. Moreover, if you look at his plate discipline numbers, they aren't terrible. Compare Carp's 10.4% swinging-strike rate with the league-average of 9.2%, Napoli's 13.8%, and Saltalamacchia's 15.2%. Carp is actually well abover-average at not swinging at pitches outside the zone and around average at swinging at pitches in the zone. He just struggles to make contact at pitches outside the zone, with an O-Contact% of 57.3% compared with a 66.8% league average (especially breaking pitches, if memory serves me right). But even with that flaw, he isn't swinging and missing a whole lot, is only slightly below-average at contact with pitches in the zone, and has been around league-average in terms of first strike %, so I'd expect his strikeout rate to decline going forward. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 7, 2013 11:40:07 GMT -5
I would not. You are talking about his K rate dipping by nearly 25%. That's a lot.
When you see a number not in line with other numbers the first question you should ask is why that number appears. If it's randomness then what else is random? Is Mike Carp facing higher K pitchers than normal? Is he not getting his share of borderline calls? An unsustainable high K rate must have a logical explanation.
In this case, there is a logical explanation. There does seem to be a change in Carp's approach this year. He is taking more pitches overall. His swing percentage has dropped drastically from the other 2 seasons that he has with over 100 PAs. Taking more pitches can have a few effects. First off, most obviously it will increase your K's and your BB's. One would also expect your HR/FB ratio to rise as you are swinging at pitchers pitches. That would seem to me to be a more logical explanation for the elevated K rate than circumstance or randomness.
In short, I see no evidence that Carp is going to regress to his career rate just because Zips has that in their 2013 projections.
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Post by buffs4444 on Aug 7, 2013 11:48:38 GMT -5
Jesus Montero, buy low(er) candidate.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 7, 2013 11:52:56 GMT -5
I would not. You are talking about his K rate dipping by nearly 25%. That's a lot. When you see a number not in line with other numbers the first question you should ask is why that number appears. If it's randomness then what else is random? Is Mike Carp facing higher K pitchers than normal? Is he not getting his share of borderline calls? An unsustainable high K rate must have a logical explanation. In this case, there is a logical explanation. There does seem to be a change in Carp's approach this year. He is taking more pitches overall. His swing percentage has dropped drastically from the other 2 seasons that he has with over 100 PAs. Taking more pitches can have a few effects. First off, most obviously it will increase your K's and your BB's. One would also expect your HR/FB ratio to rise as you are swinging at pitchers pitches. That would seem to me to be a more logical explanation for the elevated K rate than circumstance or randomness. In short, I see no evidence that Carp is going to regress to his career rate just because Zips has that in their 2013 projections.What about the swinging strike rate? |
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Post by jmei on Aug 7, 2013 12:08:20 GMT -5
In this case, there is a logical explanation. There does seem to be a change in Carp's approach this year. He is taking more pitches overall. His swing percentage has dropped drastically from the other 2 seasons that he has with over 100 PAs. Taking more pitches can have a few effects. First off, most obviously it will increase your K's and your BB's. One would also expect your HR/FB ratio to rise as you are swinging at pitchers pitches. That would seem to me to be a more logical explanation for the elevated K rate than circumstance or randomness. In short, I see no evidence that Carp is going to regress to his career rate just because Zips has that in their 2013 projections. He is swinging at about the same percentage as he has in years past at balls in the strike zone. His Z-Swing% this year is 65.8%, compared to 66.5% career and 67.5% and 66.1% the two years prior. So it's not like he's being passive and giving pitchers strike one (his first-strike percentage is around league-average and not much higher than his career rate). He is only swinging less at balls out of the strike zone-- O-Swing% at 23.3% this year, 29.2% career and 27.3% and 35.1% the two years prior). This is pretty definitive evidence which disproves your thesis. Or are you saying that he should swing more at balls? In short, his plate discipline numbers are much, much better than his strikeout numbers. And in small samples (remember, just 175 PAs this year), those plate discipline numbers are much more predictive than his raw strikeout percentage. Don't have time right now, but I'd appreciate it if someone could calculate his xK% from the instructions on this link. I'm willing to bet it's much less than 30%. EDIT: Had a few seconds. His xK% this year is 22%. That's far more indicative of his true talent level than his actual strikeout percentages in a small sample size. |
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