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First Base in 2013 and beyond
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 11, 2013 22:46:33 GMT -5
Scouting report says "fair batspeed" This is concerning. If he's a mistake hitter, he could be more Napoli than . . . . well, Napoli.
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Post by jmei on Aug 11, 2013 23:05:21 GMT -5
Let's move all discussion of Abreu to it's own thread so it doesn't get fragmented. Thanks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2013 14:20:21 GMT -5
If you've ever thought that it must be hard to come off the bench rusty and hit, consider these splits:
Mike Carp, after not playing the previous game*:
.244 / .301 / .333 (84 PA)
Mike Carp, after playing the previous game (* or the first game of the previous day's doubleheader)
.368 / .430 / .770 (100 PA), with all 8 of his HR's.
So ... do we already have a guy with both Abreu's upside and uncertainty, who is furthermore dirt cheap?
I'll have more to say about this later and in the Abreu thread, but in a perfect world they re-sign Ellsbury and give Carp a shot at 1B for a year, with the hope of moving him to DH to succeed Papi. Signing Abreu would be a Plan B, should Ellsbury sign elsewhere. (Why are Ellsbury and Abreu mutually exclusive? That's later.)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 15:00:39 GMT -5
If you've ever thought that it must be hard to come off the bench rusty and hit, consider these splits: Mike Carp, after not playing the previous game*: .244 / .301 / .333 (84 PA) Mike Carp, after playing the previous game (* or the first game of the previous day's doubleheader) .368 / .430 / .770 (100 PA), with all 8 of his HR's. So ... do we already have a guy with both Abreu's upside and uncertainty, who is furthermore dirt cheap? I'll have more to say about this later and in the Abreu thread, but in a perfect world they re-sign Ellsbury and give Carp a shot at 1B for a year, with the hope of moving him to DH to succeed Papi. Signing Abreu would be a Plan B, should Ellsbury sign elsewhere. (Why are Ellsbury and Abreu mutually exclusive? That's later.) This may be due to the Red Sox playing the 'hot bat'. In which case his hitting well led to him playing more, which led to the second sampling. Not sure how much this skews the numbers.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 14, 2013 18:06:48 GMT -5
This may be due to the Red Sox playing the 'hot bat'. In which case his hitting well led to him playing more, which led to the second sampling. Not sure how much this skews the numbers. If the "hot bat" concept were valid this might be true, but I've yet to see any proof that it is valid.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2013 19:52:47 GMT -5
If the "hot bat" concept were valid this might be true, but I've yet to see any proof that it is valid. Baseball players always talk about 'seeing the ball well' or 'it looks as big as a basketball' for when they are in a hot stretch. Whether this is true or not is moot though. It only matters that managers play players who have been given time over the recent stretch over players who are not hitting well over a recent stretch and borderline starter/bench guys like Carp are the ones who this applies to the most. Of course, it must be easier to 'heat up' when you are playing frequently vs on-and-off but we can go around and around and around on this one to see which of these causes the other. There seems to be a correlation with players in general (not just Carp) and the causation likely goes both ways to a degree. Either way, I would be happy to give Carp a shot at competing for a starting spot but I wouldn't be real happy if he was the planned starter headed into next season at 1B or LF.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2013 22:24:03 GMT -5
Mike Carp, after not playing the previous game*: .244 / .301 / .333 (84 PA) Mike Carp, after playing the previous game (* or the first game of the previous day's doubleheader) .368 / .430 / .770 (100 PA), with all 8 of his HR's. This may be due to the Red Sox playing the 'hot bat'. In which case his hitting well led to him playing more, which led to the second sampling. Not sure how much this skews the numbers. Well, in games he started after merely pinch-hitting the day before, he's 9/18, 3 2B, 3B, HR, 2 BB, HB, SF (.500 / .545 / .944). And your next question should be, did those six games happen to be slugfests? No, the Sox averaged 5.0 RS, precisely their season average, so his teammates were actually less potent than usual in these games. He's only started three games or days in a row four times: April 27-30. With Victorino hurt, they were playing Nava in RF and platooning Carp and Gomes in LF for seven games, and these were the three in a row vs RHP. He went 0/3 the first game, 3/5, 2B, HR, BB the next two. June 1-5. With Victorino and Ellsbury both out, starts 4 straight games in the OF. 2/3, 2B, BB in the first game, 4/10, 2B, HR, BB, SF in the next three. June 8-10. Victorino's just coming off the DL, so they have Carp start the 1st game of a DH, Victorino the second game, then have Carp start the next day. He goes 3/5, HR (having PH the game before), and 1/3, HR, BB. The next day, they have him play 1B to give Napoli a rest, and he goes 2/4 in a game the Sox win 2-1. And is back on the bench the next day. June 14-16. Napoli gets hurt on the 13th and Carp takes over and goes 1/3, HR (having started the game before). He starts the next three games and goes 2/8, 2B, HR, 3 BB, even thought the Sox score just 8 runs. Since then, his PT has gone down (from 1.63 PA/G to 1.33), and he's actually hit better in his 9 games after not playing than in his 6 games after playing -- presumably a SSS fluke. So there appears to have been precisely one game all season (June 10) where they played Carp because he seemed to be going well.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2013 22:31:44 GMT -5
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 14, 2013 22:54:43 GMT -5
Batting streaks are statistically significant, in that strings of success (and slumps) last longer than would be expected by change alone. Though some of that depends on variance of the batter, which I haven't studied that well.
Also... the more you play, the more data pitchers get on you, the harder it is to sustain success. I won't quite buy Carp yet, though I'm surprisingly okay with going into next year with Carp/Nava/Salty as options at 1B. Ideally we have a real 1B and rotate those guys through the OF/DH as appropriate (w/ Salty starting at catcher most of the time).
Eric - if Ellsbury is signed (let's say $100/5), who is going to start in CF in 2014/2016/2018, Victorino or JBJ?
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 14, 2013 22:56:05 GMT -5
Keep in mind I like Ellsbury, and I think he gets a bad rap (like Buchholz) for stuff out of his control. I get little injuries all the time just from running or working on the yard or whatever, I'd be an injury-prone version of Jed Lowrie if I was a MLB player. But I still think that matters, and sadly, he'll cost too much in years/money.
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Post by jmei on Sept 4, 2013 21:45:37 GMT -5
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Post by saint213 on Sept 4, 2013 22:08:07 GMT -5
i would give the job to jose abreu that would provide big papi with protection.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 4, 2013 22:12:01 GMT -5
Wow, really? With zero AB's against MLB pitching you know this?
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Post by saint213 on Sept 4, 2013 22:15:17 GMT -5
well lets see he hit 45 bombs for the cuban team and he is young wont cost us any prospects just money so yea get him.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 4, 2013 22:21:18 GMT -5
Wow, really? With zero AB's against MLB pitching you know this? I don't think this is so far fetched. Puig had no previous experience. Nor did Cespedes before him. Darvish lacked experience in the US. Once upon a time so did Ichiro. It'll come down to two things. 1) How the Sox scout Abreu. If they think his power is legit and that he's the real deal (and remember he absolutely dominated in Cuba) it will lead to 2) entering a bidding war and then having to win it or at least convince Abreu to come to Boston which is easier said than done. I'm hoping that he's legit. If he is I very much like the idea of signing a player who is entering his prime years, is affordable, and will not cost a draft pick. The Sox have very little depth at the 1b position in the organization and could very much use right handed power. If the Sox think he's THE guy, then I'm all for it.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 5, 2013 6:40:52 GMT -5
Scouting reports have his bat speed as average at best. This could be a recipe for disaster against MLB pitching.
And yes, because he hit 45 HR's against Cuban pitching he has people excited. Doesn't mean he'll do it in Boston. So Puig and Cespedes had no previous experience. It doesn't mean all Cuban players can make the leap. Many haven't. Same with Darvish. Matsuzaka was the second coming when he signed, he was a mid to back of the rotation guy and then flamed out.
I'm not saying don't sign him. But he needs to be scouted as much as possible. And even if you managed to sign him, you can't just assume he's going to be your #5 hitter. You hope he can.
Napoli won't cost any prospects either.
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Post by sammo420 on Sept 5, 2013 7:25:26 GMT -5
Scouting reports have his bat speed as average at best. This could be a recipe for disaster against MLB pitching.
And yes, because he hit 45 HR's against Cuban pitching he has people excited. Doesn't mean he'll do it in Boston. So Puig and Cespedes had no previous experience. It doesn't mean all Cuban players can make the leap. Many haven't. Same with Darvish. Matsuzaka was the second coming when he signed, he was a mid to back of the rotation guy and then flamed out.
I'm not saying don't sign him. But he needs to be scouted as much as possible. And even if you managed to sign him, you can't just assume he's going to be your #5 hitter. You hope he can.
Napoli won't cost any prospects either.
This is what I've heard as the biggest concern around here even over the lack MLB experience. Honest question to anybody, we heard a couple years ago that Anthony Rizzo was going to have trouble catching to good MLB fastballs (or something similar, I'm paraphrasing here) and most if not all on this site seemed like that was the first time they'd ever heard that about him. What was the verdict on his bat speed, I think it could be fairly relative to this conversation. I'm beginning to hate the edit feature here
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Post by bluechip on Sept 5, 2013 7:25:27 GMT -5
Scouting reports have his bat speed as average at best. This could be a recipe for disaster against MLB pitching. And yes, because he hit 45 HR's against Cuban pitching he has people excited. Doesn't mean he'll do it in Boston. So Puig and Cespedes had no previous experience. It doesn't mean all Cuban players can make the leap. Many haven't. Same with Darvish. Matsuzaka was the second coming when he signed, he was a mid to back of the rotation guy and then flamed out. I'm not saying don't sign him. But he needs to be scouted as much as possible. And even if you managed to sign him, you can't just assume he's going to be your #5 hitter. You hope he can. Napoli won't cost any prospects either. Everything you are saying is correct, ie that he needs to be scouted and that it is possible his power will not translate. It is also true that we (the fans) will not know much more about him in March than we do now. Oh, we will read the leaked scouting reports if GMs when attend the workout in Haiti, and we will look at the YouTube clips his agent posts, but we will not KNOW anything for sure. We will not really know of his success will translate until this time next year, and even then will not know if it was a good contract for another two or three years. Everything I just wrote can also be applied to Clint Frazier, it could have been applied to Bryce Harper and Yu Darvish before the signed with MLB teams. It's still fun to speculate. On a side note, not all of the scouting reports have questioned the bat speed.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 5, 2013 12:58:35 GMT -5
Scouting reports have his bat speed as average at best. This could be a recipe for disaster against MLB pitching. And yes, because he hit 45 HR's against Cuban pitching he has people excited. Doesn't mean he'll do it in Boston. So Puig and Cespedes had no previous experience. It doesn't mean all Cuban players can make the leap. Many haven't. Same with Darvish. Matsuzaka was the second coming when he signed, he was a mid to back of the rotation guy and then flamed out. I'm not saying don't sign him. But he needs to be scouted as much as possible. And even if you managed to sign him, you can't just assume he's going to be your #5 hitter. You hope he can. Napoli won't cost any prospects either. Scouting reports have his bat speed as average at best? How many scouting reports? And whose scouting reports are we talking about? If that's what the Red Sox scouts assess him to be, then by all means - pass on him, but I sincerely doubt that scouting reports are all uniform. And I do agree - they need to scout the heck out of him, but given the way he obliterated Cuban pitching, it's not a stretch to think he might be a heck of a major league hitter. We're not talking about a fringe/good Cuban hitter - we're talking about a dominating one. Daisuke was actually a decent pitcher for the Sox the first two years (showed improvement in 2008), but he foolishly went against the Sox advice and made the World Cup his top priority and then he was never the same pitcher again. As far as Napoli goes, given his propensity to whiff, I'd be scared as to what he might hit next year. He might be a .210 hitter next year with declining power. If the Sox scouts think Abreu's hitting is much more than just beating up on inferior pitching, then I would think they'd be going after him.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 5, 2013 15:10:41 GMT -5
Hey JMEI, Don't see myself how anyone can make a trade for Davis without trying to get him back to the minors and am thinking he is out of options? He is also already making 3m and probably can't be cut much (if any) from his current salary via arbitration, despite his poor 2013 season. Davis could turn into another Chris Davis, he also could turn into another Chris Coghlan, Joe Charboneau also, just given 3m (or more) in the process. Safest bet would be for the Mets to DFA/release him and some team sign him to a straight up MiLB deal. THAT would be a great deal and whole heartedly love to see, like when Boston tried to get Carlos Pena way back, just didn't have a place for him unfortunately to play on the 25 man roster.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 5, 2013 15:30:40 GMT -5
Don't see myself how anyone can make a trade for Davis without trying to get him back to the minors and am thinking he is out of options? He's had a great 2nd half (again). I see no reason to want to send him to the minors - the question is whether you can get him for a fair price from Alderson.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2013 15:46:22 GMT -5
Yeah, I would trade for Davis if the price was right (say, Bryce Brentz) and bring him into Spring Training with Carp and see what happened. I don't see the Mets DFAing or non-tendering him-- I think they know some team will probably be willing to give up something of value for him.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 15:51:57 GMT -5
The problem with Abreu which just about everyone agrees on is that there is no "floor" of athleticism. ALL of his value is in his bat. If he doesn't hit and hit a ton, he's not a very valuable player. On top of that given his age and the money that he wants, he has to be a very good player right away.
Though there is no debating his raw power, there are some who debate his bat speed and question if he's going to hit good velocity. In reality there is no way to tell for sure if he's Mark Reynolds or Joey Votto and no amount of scouting is going to give you a definite answer.
There's little doubt that if you sign that guy for something like 6/90, you are taking a major risk. Yes you could end up with 35-40 WAR over that period which would make that contract sound like peanuts, but you could also end up with under $5M. Myself I just think Ellsbury is a better risk.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 5, 2013 16:19:59 GMT -5
Yeah, I would trade for Davis if the price was right (say, Bryce Brentz) and bring him into Spring Training with Carp and see what happened. I don't see the Mets DFAing or non-tendering him-- I think they know some team will probably be willing to give up something of value for him. Issue there? Carp has shown the ability to sit on the bench for days on end this season and then come up to PH, make a positive play, then sit again for days on end and both are LH swingers. Both being LH, Carp able to play LF, makes barely league minimum to me and (just saying Brentz like mentioned) would take someone the club is probably going to move while his stock is as high as it will ever get anyway and they could use it for a RH power player that the team could use. It would make more sense (to me) if Davis was a buy low righty power that the team had a need of, rather than something the team is possibly over paying for now. This is just my perspective now.. I see Brentz as a "chip", or throw in type in a large Stanton type deal that would like to see formed later on during the off season. Also.. If the team is looking for "buy low" type LH 1b types. I'd much rather see Logan Morrison any day of the week than Ike Davis and LoMo just made 500k last year and he also came off of a porr 2013 season, tho his was injury related, but came on pretty decent after he healed the last 2 months.
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Post by jmei on Feb 20, 2014 13:29:41 GMT -5
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